CFB Zeitgeist Score
85
All-Conference in the position cohort. Carried by rec yards at the 90th percentile.
Caleb Douglas
Below the discourse floor — the honest stats-only state.
830 REC YDS · 53 REC · 7 REC TD
Where He Ended Up · NFL
Miami2026 NFL rookie season
#75Rd 3 · Pick 11
Miami2026 NFL rookie season
WR · TEXAS TECH · BIG 12
Caleb Douglas
- 4
- #5
- 6-4 | 210 lb
- Missouri City, TX
Heisman Heat
#2734
<1% win probability
Fan Belief
Awaiting
Player-specific FI not yet ingested. Falls back to team mood below.
Respect Gap
Awaiting
Coming online with player-level FI.
Reality Gap
Awaiting
Coming online with player-level FI.
ACCOLADE PROBABILITY
Heisman
<1%
TOP WR AWARD
Biletnikoff
—
CONSENSUS
All-American
—
Player Standing · 17 rungs
Tier 2 · StarterR07 · Impact starter
Impact starter. Producing measurable value above replacement.
Not on team2-deepStarterRecognizedEliteApex
Development Trajectory · receiving yards
2022–2025+374%
Up 374% from first season to most-recent.
Career Arc
HS
Recruit
★★★
CFB
College
2 teams
NFL
NFL Draft
R3 · #75
Identity & Role
The durable bio layer: position, size, hometown, and roster role.
Recruiting Pedigree
How big the prospect was before college, and whether the later career arc beat that expectation.
| Class | Profile | Context |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 3-star | 0.8859 | No. 464 recruit | HighSchool | Florida |
Transfer Arc
Portal movement changes role, context, and perception. This keeps that path in one place.
| Season | Move | Context |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Florida -> Texas Tech | 3-star | 0.8800 | Immediate |
Heisman Lens · 2024 Season · Final
Where the player landed at the end of the listed season — final nowcast rank, win/finalist/ballot probabilities, and the cleanest official Heisman placement on file.
HIGH CONFIDENCE· through week 16Heisman Futures
Not yet listed on major futures markets.
Achievements
- Program Benchmark 5.5% Program Benchmark Season leader for the program at the player's position across the headline volume metric (passing yards / rushing yards / receiving yards). Held by 5.5% of the 2025 pool. Team leader in receiving yards (830).
Selector Grid · 2025
AP—
FWAA—
AFCA—
WCFF—
SN—
SI—
Selector recognition fills in once the major honors lists (AP, FWAA, AFCA, Walter Camp, Sporting News, SI) are scraped and ingested.
NIL · Recruiting · NFL Draft
Market value, pedigree & pro outcome
Recruit stars
★★★☆☆
to Florida
Composite
0.8859
#464 national
NFL Draft
2026 · Rd 3, Pick 11
#75 overall · Miami
Today’s Hot-Take
The Hot-Take engine fires when this player’s percentile profile crosses a defensible threshold (top 10% in a cohort, 100+ snap sample). When it’s quiet, the model is honoring its “must be defensible” rule.
Anti-Take
PENDINGThe contrarian read fires when the rules-engine detects a stat that complicates the Hot-Take. Quiet here means the model hasn’t found a defensible counter yet — not that one doesn’t exist.
The Room on Caleb Douglas
Fan sentiment · Awaiting signal
The Room reads fan conversation around a player — who’s talking, what they believe, and how that shifts. It publishes once weekly volume rebuilds; for most players that’s in-season, when game-week chatter spikes.
Cohort divergence map
Cohort divergence reads how different fanbases talk about this player. Returns once weekly mentions clear the publish floor.
Rival Radar
How rival fanbases talk about Caleb Douglas
No rival-bucket mentions in the current season.
2025 Signature · 2025 season
Yards per reception
15.7
yds
All FBS WRs, min 20 receptions
National rank #77 of 531
Percentile vs All FBS WRs, min 20 receptions 86th
Why it matters
#77 of 531 All FBS WRs at 15.7 yards per reception (53 catches).
Vs cohort
This player 15.7 (86th)
HIGH · n=53 cohort 531
- Also strong
- Receiving yards (total)#56 / 531
- Receiving TDs#36 / 531
Signature Moment
Week 14 at West Virginia — 127 ypr
Result W 49-0
The week the volume broke through — put up 127 yds at West Virginia.
Season Pace · Projection
Where the receiving totals stand
Through 13g
830Rec yards
53Receptions
7Rec TDs
Per game
63.8Rec yards
4Receptions
1Rec TDs
Final
830Rec yards
53Receptions
7Rec TDs
✓ Hit 700-yard receiver · finished with 830.
What made this player interesting
The fast read on the thing that makes this player more than a generic stat line.
Caleb Douglas's story is about how role and output meet each other. For Texas Tech, the card already shows enough current-season production to explain why he is on the serious-player board, and the next layer is determining whether the profile is just very good or actually distinctive.
2025 Season · Final
Traditional stats first. Advanced context underneath.
Last season
WR season snapshot
2025 season snapshot | final
2025 season snapshot | finalData: CFBD player stats + local Heisman modelPeer context: same position + same level
Player identity What kind of player is this?
30-second read
What kind of player is this?
Target magnet | Big-play receiver against FBS receiving peers.
2025 Season · Final
2025 season snapshot | final
Receiving
REC
53 91st
YDS
830 95th
YPR
15.7 80th
TD
7 97th
Game Log · Week-by-week
2025 season · 13 games
| Wk | Opp | REC | YDS | AVG | TD | LONG | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | W 67-7vs Arkansas-Pine Bluff | 3 | 44 | 14.7 | 0 | 19 | |
| Wk 2 | W 62-14vs Kent State | 2 | 37 | 18.5 | 0 | 29 | |
| Wk 3 | W 45-14vs Oregon State | 1 | 61 | 61.0 | 1 | 61 | |
| Wk 4 | W 34-10@ Utah | 4 | 68 | 17.0 | 0 | 33 | |
| Wk 6 | W 35-11@ Houston | 7 | 114 | 16.3 | 0 | 33 | |
| Wk 7 | W 42-17vs Kansas | 6 | 55 | 9.2 | 0 | 26 | |
| Wk 8 | L 22-26@ Arizona State | 4 | 19 | 4.8 | 0 | 7 | |
| Wk 9 | W 42-0vs Oklahoma State | 5 | 98 | 19.6 | 1 | 42 | |
| Wk 10 | W 43-20@ Kansas State | 8 | 82 | 10.3 | 2 | 26 | 2 TD catches |
| Wk 11 | W 29-7vs BYU | 2 | 12 | 6.0 | 1 | 9 | |
| Wk 12 | W 48-9vs UCF | 5 | 90 | 18.0 | 0 | 32 | |
| Wk 14 | W 49-0@ West Virginia | 5 | 127 | 25.4 | 2 | 50 | Season-high 127 yds |
| Wk 15 | W 34-7vs BYU | 1 | 23 | 23.0 | 0 | 23 | |
| Total | 53 | 830 | 18.8 | 7 | 61 |
Season-by-season tables Career rows + per-season box score
Traditional history
Traditional Stats
Season rows up top, career context at the bottom.
Season context · Team result + system
2022Florida6-7HC: Billy Napier · Run-leaning
2023Florida5-7HC: Billy Napier · Balanced
2025Texas Tech12-2HC: Joey McGuire · Balanced
| Season | Team | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Texas Tech | 53 | 830 | 15.7 | 7 | -- |
| 2023 | Florida | 11 | 133 | 12.1 | 1 | -- |
| 2022 | Florida | 10 | 175 | 17.5 | 2 | -- |
| Career | 3 loaded seasons | 74 | 1,138 | 15.4 | 10 | -- |
Advanced layer Usage, value, and context
Advanced metrics second
Advanced Metrics
Usage, value, and opponent-adjusted context.
The player's share of a team's passing-game involvement. It is the fastest way to see whether the receiver is a true focal point or more of a complementary piece.
A blended workload view that accounts for catches, designed touches, and any return-game involvement that shapes the overall profile.
Every percentile is compared against players at the same position and level, so an FBS quarterback is judged against FBS quarterbacks, not the whole sport.
The top tables stick to the stats fans already know from broadcasts and box scores. Advanced context is pushed underneath instead of replacing the basics.
Open full stat explorer
| Group | Metric | Value | Rank | Pct | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Receiving | Receptions | 53 | #101/1110 | 91st pct | Volumevs FBS WR |
| Receiving | Receiving yards | 830 | #59/1107 | 95th pct | Volumevs FBS WR |
| Receiving | Receiving TD | 7 | #37/1111 | 97th pct | Scoringvs FBS WR |
| Receiving | Yards / catch | 15.7 | #221/1106 | 80th pct | Efficiencyvs FBS WR |
| Usage | Pass share | 18.5% | #120/1137 | 90th pct | Air-game usagevs FBS WR |
| Receiving | Receiving LONG | 61 | #167/1105 | 85th pct | Metricvs FBS WR |
| Usage | Passing-down usage | 11.8% | #140/1137 | 88th pct | Known-passing sharevs FBS WR |
| Usage | 3rd-down usage | 11.7% | #144/1137 | 87th pct | Money-down loadvs FBS WR |
| Usage | 2nd-down usage | 9.4% | #142/1137 | 88th pct | Middle-down loadvs FBS WR |
| Usage | Role share | 8.8% | #156/1137 | 86th pct | Share of team offensevs FBS WR |
| Usage | Standard-down usage | 7.4% | #187/1137 | 84th pct | Base-situation sharevs FBS WR |
| Usage | 1st-down usage | 7.0% | #239/1137 | 79th pct | Early-down loadvs FBS WR |
| Usage | Rush share | 0.0% | #391/1137 | 66th pct | Ground-game usagevs FBS WR |
Player Standing
Universal 17-step ladder. Tier pills below; accolade streams nested.
AWAITING CLASSIFICATION
On-team2-deepStartingRecognizedEliteApex
AWAITING CLASSIFICATION · Rung None of 16
Why he’s here
Standing classification populates when honors, Heisman, and roster signals all align.
What moves him up
What moves him down
Accolade streams
Status—Awaiting tracker
Heisman model tracks the top FBS contenders weekly; this player hasn't entered the watch list yet.
Splits · Per-game
2025 season · 13 games
Home vs Road
| REC/g | YDS/g | YPR | TD/g | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home8g | 3.1 | 52.5 | 21.2 | 0.4 |
| Road5g | 5.6 | 82.0 | 14.8 | 0.8 |
Win vs Loss
| REC/g | YDS/g | YPR | TD/g | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wins12g | 4.1 | 67.6 | 19.9 | 0.6 |
| Losses1g | 4.0 | 19.0 | 4.8 | 0.0 |
First half vs Second half
| REC/g | YDS/g | YPR | TD/g | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weeks 1-76g | 3.8 | 63.2 | 22.8 | 0.2 |
| Weeks 8+7g | 4.3 | 64.4 | 15.3 | 0.9 |
Pocket and defense-quality (clean vs. pressure) splits are coming soon.
Savant · Box-rate percentiles
Where this profile ranks vs the WR cohort
85All-Conference
Elite: rec tds (91st). Strength: rec yards (89th).
Percentiles versus same-position peers with enough snaps this season, based on box-score rates.
Advanced Savant · WR · 2024
Percentile Card
Advanced opponent-adjusted percentile bars are coming soon for this player.
P4G5All FBS
Advanced Savant
Opponent-adjusted advanced metrics with a cohort filter.
Advanced opponent-adjusted metrics are coming soon for this player. Selected cohort: P4.
Peer Comparator · Fingerprint match
Three closest profiles by box-rate percentile
Caleb DouglasTexas TechChris Brazzell IITennessee· 92% simAnthony SmithEast Carolina· 91% simAmare ThomasHouston· 91% sim
Rec TDs
Rec yards
Yards / catch
Receptions
Long catch
Closest peers by overall box-score percentile profile at the same position.
Player DNA
The Possession Receiver
Reliable target who converts on critical downs. Not flashy; consistently productive.
WR
His 2025 production profile sits closest to Corey Gammage’s 2022 season.
Corey Gammage
86%match
#2
Chase Roberts
84%
#3
Chase Roberts
84%
#4
Alex Perry
78%
#5
Ja'Cory Thomas
78%
Matches Corey on
Height
Yards / reception
TD rate
Differs from Corey on
Class year (higher)
Through 4 college seasons, his career arc tracks closest to Jacob Harris’s path through UCF.
Jacob Harris
100%match
#2
Lujuan Winningham
99%
#3
Jalen Kelsey
97%
#4
Kyndon Fuselier
94%
#5
Jahdae Walker
93%
Matches Jacob on
Yards per reception
As a senior, his production profile tracks closest to Chase Roberts's senior season at BYU (2025).
Chase Roberts
88%match
#2
Dane Key
73%
#3
Reginald Virgil
70%
#4
Troy Omeire
70%
#5
Alex Perry
69%
Matches Chase on
Yards / reception
Reception volume
EPA / play (adj)
Supporting Cast · Scheme
Staff and system around the player
Head Coach
Joey McGuire
Pass share
47.6%
484 pass / 532 run
Plays / game
72.6
14 games
OL sack rate (allowed)
6.5%
336 dropbacks · PBP
Scheme: Balanced.
Coaching Lineage · 2022–2025
1 coach2022
Joey McGuire
Texas Tech
2023
Joey McGuire
Texas Tech
2025
Joey McGuire
Texas Tech
Played his entire career under Joey McGuire.
Bio · Recruiting · Transfer · Roster
Off-field context — switch tabs to drill into recruit profile, transfer arc, or roster timeline.
HometownMissouri City, TX
Height6'4"
Weight210 lb
Class4
PositionWR
Jersey5
No fields populated yet.
No fields populated yet.
Current teamTexas Tech
ConferenceBig 12
Joined2025
Career arc4 season(s)
Trophy Case · Detail
Every honor on the ledger, broken out by stream and selector.
No formal honors on the ledger yet
All-America, all-conference, player-of-the-week, watch-list, and postseason awards land here when they're earned. The absence is the signal: most players never collect formal honors, and that's its own kind of context.
Honors Timeline
Season-end distinction and week-by-week recognition on one timeline.
| Season | Honor | Scope | Team / Selector | Context |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| No formal honors on the ledger yet. All-America, all-conference, weekly awards, watch lists, and postseason trophies land here when they’re earned. | ||||
Heisman By Year
Modeled rank and official finish by season.
| Season | Team | Role | Latest Model | Forecast | Win | Finalist | Official Finish | Points | Context |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Texas Tech | WR4 | #2734 | #2624 | 0.0% | 0.0% | -- | -- | W16 snapshot | Big 12 |
| 2023 | Florida | WR4 | #1985 | #2258 | 0.0% | 0.0% | -- | -- | W19 snapshot | SEC |
| 2022 | Florida | WR4 | #1208 | #1434 | 0.0% | 0.0% | -- | -- | W20 snapshot | SEC |
Roster Timeline
Team, conference, and class by season.
| Season | Team | Conference | Pos | Class | Bio |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Texas Tech | Big 12 | WR | 4 | No. 5 | 6-4 | 210 lb | Missouri City, TX |
| 2024 | Texas Tech | Big 12 | WR | 4 | No. 5 | 6-4 | 210 lb | Missouri City, TX |
| 2023 | Florida | SEC | WR | 4 | No. 5 | 6-4 | 210 lb | Missouri City, TX |
| 2022 | Florida | SEC | WR | 4 | No. 5 | 6-4 | 210 lb | Missouri City, TX |