Game log · Week-by-week
2026 season · 1 game
| Wk | Opp | CMP/ATT | YDS | TD | INT | YPA | QBR | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | L 16-17@ Auburn | 27/54 | 333 | 2 | 1 | 6.2 | — | Season-high 333 yds |
#2
D.J. Lagway
DJ Lagway was the No. 3 recruit in America -- a five-star arm everyone wanted. Two years later, after Florida went 4-8 and fired its coach, he's starting over at Baylor. The talent was never the question. The turnovers are.
6′3″ · 237 lb · Willis, TX
CFB Index 40 · #91 of 146 QBsHigh confidenceTransferred Florida for 2026
CFB Index
A single number blending on-field production (an EPA-based value lane) with box-score output for this player's position.
0-100, scaled within each position's own cohort — not directly comparable across positions.
The numbers
333
passing yards · 2026 · through week 3
1 game into 2026 so far -- Backed by 456 yds · 3 TD -- top 1% passing yards game. -- Best game: 333 pass yds, 2 TD, 1 INT, vs Auburn
Swing playSwung Florida from 41% to 71% to win.Florida at Ole Miss · 34-24
His career numbers, season by seasonThe story
DJ Lagway was the No. 3 recruit in America -- a five-star arm everyone wanted. Two years later, after Florida went 4-8 and fired its coach, he's starting over at Baylor. The talent was never the question. The turnovers are.
- Signed as a 5-star recruit to Florida in 2024.
- Transferred from Florida to Baylor in 2026.
- Baylor NIL deal for Lagway (Sep 16) Reported
Aura™ · Him Watch
Aura tax
+51aura tax
Fans rank this player in the 88th percentile of QBs; the tape says
37th pctl our passing-value metric (wEPA) QBs · 160 qualified, n=270
— more hype than the tape.Aura — fan perception88th pctl
Production — on-field37th pctl
n=270 mentions · cohort: QBs · 160 qualified · perception = conversation volume, production = our passing-value metric (wEPA)
Buzz vs Tape
Attention percentile: 88th · Production percentile: 38th
He's mentioned more than 88% of qualified QBs this season, but his production sits in just the 38th percentile — a gap of 50 points between volume and tape.
88thattention percentile · vs QBs
38thproduction percentile · vs QBs
Also worth knowing:
In Their Words
1,448 windows · 2026 fan posts
baylor×35.9lagway×81.2aranda×223.4ankle×47.9napier×335.1dave×29.8sicem×111.7prairie×65.7
“Zero blitz on Lagway ends Baylor’s hopes. {Auburn} by 7.”
reddit/CFB · fan post, verbatim
The story
He arrived at Florida as a Five-Star Plus+, the No. 3 overall recruit in the 2024 class, and the arm was every bit as advertised. The results weren't: in 2025 he threw for 2,264 yards but 14 interceptions against 16 touchdowns -- at one point leading the nation in picks, including a five-interception night against LSU -- while fighting through shoulder and calf injuries on a team that went 4-8 and fired Billy Napier. So the five-star did what five-stars now do when it breaks: he reset. Lagway transferred to Baylor, where Dave Aranda called him a defining portal win and needs him to convert pedigree into production after a 5-7 season. The forward stakes are the oldest question in the sport, just in a new city: can a quarterback with this much arm talent finally play efficient, ball-secure football? In Waco, 2026 is the leap -- or the latest reminder that recruiting stars don't throw the passes.
SOURCES
In the news
Reported by other outlets. Headlines are theirs; follow a link to read the report.
His career
5 programs, one constant: he played.
The week the volume broke through — put up 287 yds at LSU.LSU · L 10-202025
Lagway throws with rare arm talent -- the trait that made him the No. 3 recruit in the country -- and the tape is a tug-of-war between that ceiling and his decision-making. The 2025 efficiency was genuinely poor: our play-by-play put his touchdown rate in the 27th percentile and his dropback success rate in the 36th, and the box score agrees (16 touchdowns, 14 interceptions, a five-pick game against LSU that was the most by a Florida quarterback since 1992). Some of that is volatility you can live with from a big arm; some is the kind of turnover habit that sinks seasons. Durability is part of the profile too -- a shoulder injury that limited spring work and a preseason calf strain are on the record. The honest frame: this is a high-variance gunslinger whose floor showed up more than his ceiling in 2025. Baylor is betting the arm is real and the mistakes are coachable. The film to watch in 2026 is simple -- does the interception number come down?
Written by our staff.
202412 games
- Signed with Florida5-star out of Willis
2026
- Entered the portal
- Entered the portal
- Entered the portal
- Entered the portal
Career arc
HS
Recruit
★★★★★
CFB
College
2 teams
NFL
NFL Draft
—
Badges
- Top-10 Recruit
Coaching lineage · 2024–2026
2 coaches2024–2025
Florida
2026era →
Jon Sumrall
Florida
Coaching transition mid-career: Billy Napier → Jon Sumrall. Worth noting in scheme + development context.
Where He Ended Up · Transfer
Transferred to Florida
2025Florida
2026Florida
Career stats
Game log
Signature plays
Signature plays · top plays by |EPA|
The plays that mattered most
- Week 1 · Auburn · 3&2 · Q1 · EPA -5.19(10:12) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 D.Lagway rush right for 2 yards loss to the AUB29 fumbled by #2 D.Lagway at AUB27 forced by #5 E.Winters recovered by AUB #8 K.Harris at AUB29 #8 K.Harris return 1 yard to the AUB30 (#5 T.Barnes), out of bounds
- Week 1 · Auburn · 3&11 · Q1 · EPA -4.44(05:22) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 D.Lagway pass intercepted by #41 J.Smith at AUB40 #41 J.Smith return 6 yards to the AUB46 (#6 G.Freeman)
- Week 1 · Auburn · 4&10 · Q4 · EPA +4.13(02:16) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 D.Lagway pass complete deep middle to #6 G.Freeman caught at AUB36, for 28 yards to the AUB36, End Of Play, 1ST DOWN
- Week 1 · Auburn · 4&3 · Q2 · EPA +3.24(02:14) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 D.Lagway pass complete short middle to #4 L.Brown IV caught at AUB40, for 15 yards to the AUB39 (#22 A.Jordan Jr.), 1ST DOWN
- Week 1 · Auburn · 4&5 · Q4 · EPA +3.05(00:11) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 D.Lagway pass complete short left to #6 G.Freeman caught at AUB01, for 5 yards to the AUB00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 00:09 #2 D.Lagway pass attempt failed #2 D.Lagway pass attempt failed. The previous play is under automatic review - "" #2 D.Lagway pass attempt failed. The previous play is under automatic review - "". CALL UPHELD #2 D.Lagway pass attempt failed. The previous play is under automatic review - "Runner was down by contact". CALL UPHELD
- Week 1 · Auburn · 3&10 · Q1 · EPA +2.75(11:24) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 D.Lagway pass complete short left to #4 L.Brown IV caught at AUB40, for 12 yards to the AUB35 (#9 E.Melendez; #22 A.Jordan Jr.), 1ST DOWN
- Week 1 · Auburn · 2&10 · Q1 · EPA +2.72(06:47) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 D.Lagway pass complete short left to #86 H.Polley caught at BAY50, for 20 yards to the AUB41 (#0 S.Smith-Reed), 1ST DOWN
- Week 1 · Auburn · 3&11 · Q1 · EPA +2.63(01:23) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 D.Lagway pass complete short left to #4 L.Brown IV caught at AUB32, for 12 yards to the AUB31 (#21 G.Jenkins), 1ST DOWN
- Week 1 · Auburn · 1&10 · Q2 · EPA +2.55(01:33) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 D.Lagway pass complete short left to #4 L.Brown IV caught at AUB01, for 14 yards to the AUB00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 01:30, 1ST DOWN #98 R.Armstrong kick attempt good (H: #94 P.Williams, LS: #93 D.Schaub)
- Week 1 · Auburn · 3&11 · Q1 · EPA +2.32(12:26) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 D.Lagway pass complete deep middle to #6 G.Freeman caught at BAY36, for 23 yards to the BAY38, out of bounds at BAY38, 1ST DOWN
2026 snapshot
Season context · Team result + system
2024Florida8-5HC: Billy Napier · Run-leaning, slow tempo
2025Florida4-8HC: Billy Napier · Balanced
2026Baylor2-1HC: Dave Aranda · Balanced, fast tempo
Where this profile ranks vs the QB cohort
Box-score percentiles
High confidence
Concern: pass yards (0th percentile).
Box-score rates (8)
Percentiles versus same-position peers with enough snaps this season, based on box-score rates.
Passing profile
Pass Profile · True throw depth (charted plays)
Adjusted ANY/A, sack rate, and where the yards came from
54 of 54 attempts matched to play-by-play
54 of 54 attempts charted for true throw depth
Adjusted ANY/A
5.8493 of 126 QBsSack rate
1.8%17 of 126 QBsRarely sacked (17 of 126), but Adjusted ANY/A hasn't followed (93 of 126).
Adjusted ANY/A uses full-season box-score totals (attempts, yards, TDs, INTs); sack rate is play-by-play-derived.
Behind LOS · Negative air yds
9% of attempts (5)
60%comp
Air -1.6 · YAC 5.0 avg
Short · 0–9 air yds
48% of attempts (26)
50%comp1 INT
Air 5.2 · YAC 3.9 avg
Middle · 10–19 air yds
26% of attempts (14)
50%comp
Air 13.4 · YAC 2.6 avg
Deep · 20+ air yds
17% of attempts (9)
44%comp
Air 27.8 · YAC 0.5 avg
Overall 50.0% completion on 54 attempts · 44% completion on 9 deep attempts (20+ air yds).
Passer rating
Zeitgeist Passer Rating
2026 · our own passing-efficiency number, shown next to the 1979 formula it does not replace.
Thin sample: 55 dropbacks46Zeitgeist Passer Ratingnot ranked until 125 dropbacks
--NCAA passer ratingno box-score line yet
Positive-play rate weight 24%
42.7%27th pct of FBS QBsshare of dropbacks that gained expected points · -2.7% schedule adj.Yards per attempt weight 56%
6.0415th pct of FBS QBssacks excluded · -0.1 schedule adj.Sack rate weight 21% (penalty)
2.3%93th pct of FBS QBsthe input passer rating cannot see · +0.5% schedule adj.Opponent-adjusted; garbage time excluded (0 of 55 dropbacks dropped). 50 = FBS average; the number is pulled toward 50 when the sample is thin. Scaled against the 2025 FBS population until enough 2026 QBs qualify. How ZPR is built.
Splits & context
Splits
Per-game splits
Through 1 game: 333 YDS/g, 2.0 TD/g, 6.2 YPA, 1.0 INT/g — splits start at 3 games.
Supporting cast · Scheme
Staff and system around the player
Head Coach
Jon Sumrall
Pass share
39.9%
81 pass / 122 run
Plays / game
67.7
3 games
Scheme: Run-heavy.
Awards
Player standing · 2026
Backup
On the two-deep and pushing for snaps.
Roster2-deepStarterRecognizedEliteApex
How he plays
Play style
Lagway throws with rare arm talent -- the trait that made him the No. 3 recruit in the country -- and the tape is a tug-of-war between that ceiling and his decision-making. The 2025 efficiency was genuinely poor: our play-by-play put his touchdown rate in the 27th percentile and his dropback success rate in the 36th, and the box score agrees (16 touchdowns, 14 interceptions, a five-pick game against LSU that was the most by a Florida quarterback since 1992). Some of that is volatility you can live with from a big arm; some is the kind of turnover habit that sinks seasons. Durability is part of the profile too -- a shoulder injury that limited spring work and a preseason calf strain are on the record. The honest frame: this is a high-variance gunslinger whose floor showed up more than his ceiling in 2025. Baylor is betting the arm is real and the mistakes are coachable. The film to watch in 2026 is simple -- does the interception number come down?
Our classifier reads him the same way: operates within the system without forcing anything.
DNA match
Player DNA
Pocket Passer
Balanced passer who operates within the system, without one standout number carrying the profile.
QB
His 2025 production profile sits closest to Will Levis’s 2021 season.
57%match
NFL Rd 2 · Pk 2
Differs from Will on
Recruiting rating (higher)
Weight (higher)
TD rate (lower)
Through 3 college seasons, his career arc tracks closest to Arch Manning’s path through Texas.
86%match
All-SEC
Matches Arch on
Completion %
Recruiting rating
Yards per attempt
As a sophomore, his production profile tracks closest to Jayden Maiava's sophomore season at USC (2024).
54%match
All-Big Ten
Matches Jayden on
Height
Differs from Jayden on
Recruiting rating (higher)
Weight (higher)
TD rate (lower)
Stats from CFBD · ESPN · fan discourse. Every figure computed from source tables — not invented. Methodology