Julian Sayin led the entire country in accuracy, made the Heisman finalist cut as the only underclassman -- and still went home empty, beaten on the one stage that mattered. He's back for the part he didn't finish.
6′1″ · 214 lb · Carlsbad, CA
CFB Index
A single number blending on-field production (an EPA-based value lane) with box-score output for this player's position.
0-100, scaled within each position's own cohort — not directly comparable across positions.
The numbers
passing yards · 2026 · through week 3
3 games into 2026 so far -- Best game: 320 pass yds, 3 TD, -9 rush yds, vs Ball State
Swing playSwung Ohio State from 35% to 61% to win.Ohio State at Washington · 24-6
His career numbers, season by seasonThe story
Julian Sayin led the entire country in accuracy, made the Heisman finalist cut as the only underclassman -- and still went home empty, beaten on the one stage that mattered. He's back for the part he didn't finish.
Aura™ · Him Watch
-9aura tax
98th pctl our passing-value metric (wEPA) QBs · 160 qualified, n=290
— the discourse is fair.Buzz vs Tape
His own fans are far more bullish than the rival fanbase.
Ohio State Buckeyes energize fans with the reveal of five bold new football jerseys, setting the stage for a high-intensity offseason. Could this sartorial shakeup spark breakout performances from stars like Jeremiah Smith, Julian Sayin…
Also worth knowing:
“Julian Sayin stepping up as a vocal leader for the Buckeyes in his second year as starting quarterback”
Fan claims · every quote verified verbatim
QB1 Julian Sayin (All B1G, B1G Frosh of Year, All American, National Frosh of Year, National Champion)
Based on 1 comment across 1 thread · Aug 1, 2026 · via Buckeye Football
Sayin's first act was a quiet kind of stardom. The former Alabama signee who left when Nick Saban retired found his home at Ohio State, and in his first year starting he completed 77% of his passes -- the best in the nation -- for 3,610 yards and 32 touchdowns. He was the only underclassman invited to New York as a Heisman finalist.
What he didn't get was the trophy or the title. Indiana beat Ohio State in the Big Ten Championship and Fernando Mendoza ran off with the Heisman; the door Sayin had pried open swung shut on the biggest stage. That's the engine of his 2026: fans don't just want him better, they want it finished.
He's built to deliver -- 14 career starts now, the nation's best receiver in Jeremiah Smith, and a roster that opens the year as a national-title favorite. The forward question isn't whether Sayin is good; the nation-leading numbers settled that. It's whether the quiet accuracy becomes a closer's resume -- and whether the next time the season comes down to one game, the result flips.
His career
He arrived as a blue-chip recruit and played like one.
Sayin's 2025 wasn't just good, it was statistically absurd: he finished in the 99th percentile nationally in completion percentage, in expected points per dropback, and in success rate -- the three numbers that matter most, all at the ceiling. The game looks easy because he plays it fast and clean; he was sacked on barely 1.5% of his dropbacks, top-five in the country at getting the ball out. He isn't a gunslinger pushing it deep -- his average throw was middle-of-the-pack in air yards -- he's a precision machine who takes exactly what the defense gives and never gives it back. The honest questions trail every efficient passer in a loaded offense: at 6-1 he doesn't tower, and with Jeremiah Smith outside, skeptics ask how much is him. In Ohio State's attack he's the conductor -- and 2026 is the year he answers the doubt the only way a quarterback can, by carrying a title himself.
Written by our staff.
The role got bigger.
Career arc
Trophy case · Confirmed honors
What the selectors said
ALL-BIG TEN · 2ND TEAM
All-Big Ten 2nd team (2025)
FRESHMAN HONORS
Freshman recognition (2025)
4 mention(s)
Badges
Coaching lineage · 2024–2026
1 coachPlayed his entire career under Ryan Day.
| Season | Team | |||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | Ohio State | 56 | 79 | 70.9% | 839 | 10.6 | 6 | 1 | 182.6 | 81 | -- | -- |
| 2025 | Ohio State | 301 | 391 | 77.0% | 3,610 | 9.2 | 32 | 8 | 177.5 | 93 | -- | -- |
| 2024 | Ohio State | 5 | 12 | 41.7% | 84 | 7.0 | 1 | 0 | 128.0 | -- | -- | -- |
| Career | 362 | 482 | 75.1% | 4,533 | 9.4 | 39 | 9 | 177.1 | 91 | -- | -- |
| Season | Team | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | Ohio State | 9 | -22 | -2.4 | 1 | -- |
| 2025 | Ohio State | 42 | -44 | -1.0 | 0 | -- |
| 2024 | Ohio State | 2 | 24 | 12.0 | 0 | -- |
| Career | 53 | -42 | -0.8 | 1 | -- |
Game by game
Point color shows the opponent's defensive strength that week (red = weaker defense, blue = stronger) — dashed line is this player's own season average.
Game log · Week-by-week
2026 season · 3 games
| Wk | Opp | CMP/ATT | YDS | TD | INT | YPA | QBR | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | W 56-3vs Ball State | 21/25 | 320 | 3 | 0 | 12.8 | — | Season-high 320 yds |
| Wk 2 | L 23-24@ Texas | 17/32 | 278 | 1 | 1 | 8.7 | 88.3 | |
| Wk 3 | W 59-3vs Kent State | 18/22 | 241 | 2 | 0 | 11.0 | 67.0 | |
| Total | 56/79 | 839 | 6 | 1 | 10.8 | 77.7 |
SIGNATURE GAME · Week 1 · 2026
W 56–3
vs Ball State
Signature plays · top plays by |EPA|
The plays that mattered most
Since week 2: +241 passing yards, +2 passing TD.
Season context · Team result + system
3 seasons under Ryan Day — 28-5 over that span.
Where this profile ranks vs the QB cohort
Box-score + play-by-play EPA percentiles
Elite: success rate (95th percentile). Strength: epa / dropback (91st percentile). Concern: rush yards (8th percentile).
Real play-by-play efficiency
Season trend
Percentiles versus same-position peers with enough snaps this season. Most bars are box-score rates; EPA / success-rate bars are computed from real play-by-play (offense only — no defensive EPA model exists yet).
Pass Profile · True throw depth (charted plays)
Adjusted ANY/A, sack rate, and where the yards came from
Adjusted ANY/A
10.4913 of 126 QBsSack rate
6.0%87 of 126 QBsSacked on 6.0% of dropbacks (87 of 126) — and still 13 of 126 in Adjusted ANY/A.
Adjusted ANY/A uses full-season box-score totals (attempts, yards, TDs, INTs); sack rate is play-by-play-derived.
Behind LOS · Negative air yds
Short · 0–9 air yds
Middle · 10–19 air yds
Deep · 20+ air yds
Overall 70.9% completion on 79 attempts · 54% completion on 13 deep attempts (20+ air yds).
Zeitgeist Passer Rating
2026 · our own passing-efficiency number, shown next to the 1979 formula it does not replace.
Thin sample: 83 dropbacks81Zeitgeist Passer Ratingnot ranked until 125 dropbacks
--NCAA passer ratingno box-score line yet
Positive-play rate weight 24%
61.4%100th pct of FBS QBsshare of dropbacks that gained expected pointsYards per attempt weight 56%
10.60100th pct of FBS QBssacks excludedSack rate weight 21% (penalty)
6.0%42th pct of FBS QBsthe input passer rating cannot seeOpponent-adjusted; garbage time excluded (1 of 84 dropbacks dropped). 50 = FBS average; the number is pulled toward 50 when the sample is thin. Scaled against the 2025 FBS population until enough 2026 QBs qualify. How ZPR is built.
Splits · Per-game
2026 season · 3 games
Home vs Road
| YDS/g | TD/g | YPA | INT/g | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home2g | 280 | 2.5 | 11.9 | 0.0 |
| Road1g | 278 | 1.0 | 8.7 | 1.0 |
First half vs Second half
| YDS/g | TD/g | YPA | INT/g | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weeks 1-73g | 280 | 2.0 | 10.8 | 0.3 |
Supporting cast · Scheme
Staff and system around the player
Head Coach
Ryan Day
Pass share
48.3%
97 pass / 104 run
Plays / game
67.0
3 games
Scheme: Balanced.
Player standing · 2025
Picked for an all-conference team by at least one selector.
our read the All-Conference honor is earned — and the box score backs it up emphatically: #5 of 146 FBS quarterbacks by CFB Index Score.2025 profile
Recognition
Production · CFB Index Score
Former five-star. Now #5 at the position.
2026 outlook
Heisman market1.9%full market ›
In the mix to repeat All-Big Ten
Based on 2025: #3 of 19 Big Ten QBs
49% estimated, 95% confidence interval 43–54%. Base rate measured from players who finished at a comparable rank in their conference and came back the next season. It is an estimate from a small sample, not a forecast of this player.
One of 52 players who were elite at two different things in 2025. See the others ›
Play style
Sayin's 2025 wasn't just good, it was statistically absurd: he finished in the 99th percentile nationally in completion percentage, in expected points per dropback, and in success rate -- the three numbers that matter most, all at the ceiling. The game looks easy because he plays it fast and clean; he was sacked on barely 1.5% of his dropbacks, top-five in the country at getting the ball out. He isn't a gunslinger pushing it deep -- his average throw was middle-of-the-pack in air yards -- he's a precision machine who takes exactly what the defense gives and never gives it back. The honest questions trail every efficient passer in a loaded offense: at 6-1 he doesn't tower, and with Jeremiah Smith outside, skeptics ask how much is him. In Ohio State's attack he's the conductor -- and 2026 is the year he answers the doubt the only way a quarterback can, by carrying a title himself.
Our classifier reads him the same way: operates within the system without forcing anything.
Player DNA
Balanced passer who operates within the system, without one standout number carrying the profile.
His 2025 production profile sits closest to C.J. Stroud’s 2021 season.
Matches C.J. on
Differs from C.J. on
Through 2 college seasons, his career arc tracks closest to Bo Nix’s path through Oregon.
Matches Bo on
Differs from Bo on
As a sophomore, his production profile tracks closest to Aidan O'Connell's sophomore season at Purdue (2021).
Byron Young
Differs from Aidan on
Heisman futures · sportsbook market
#13 in market ▼ from #3 · 5 books
Heisman Trajectory · 2026
Peaked at #2 — top-tier Heisman contention all season.
Career Highs 36 Completions at Wisconsin (Oct. 18, 2025) 42 Attempts at Wisconsin (Oct. 18, 2025) 393 Passing Yards at Wisconsin (Oct. 18, 2025) 94.7 Completion Percentage vs. Grambling (Sept. 6, 2025) 4 Passing Touchdowns (Three times – last vs. Penn State on Nov. 1, 2025) 87 Long Completion vs....