CFB Zeitgeist Score
87
All-Conference in the position cohort. Carried by rush yards at the 94th percentile.
Lincoln Pare
Below the discourse floor — the honest stats-only state.
1,129 RUSH YDS · 12 RUSH TD · 211 CARRIES
2026 Outlook
Returning to Texas State for 2026
2026 Depth chart
Returning starter
Running back · Texas State
Returning around him
- 93% of 2024 offensive production back (Strong continuity)
- Transfer portal: -4 net (17 in / 21 out)
2026 Award watch
No preseason watch lists yet (most drop June 15 – July 15)
Texas State · Last season: 7-6 · Talent rank #76 · 2026 recruiting class #101
RB · TEXAS STATE · SUN BELT
Lincoln Pare
- 4
- #7
- 5-9 | 200 lb
- Germantown, TN
Heisman Heat
#3273
<1% win probability
Fan Belief
Awaiting
Player-specific FI not yet ingested. Falls back to team mood below.
Respect Gap
Awaiting
Coming online with player-level FI.
Reality Gap
Awaiting
Coming online with player-level FI.
ACCOLADE PROBABILITY
Heisman
<1%
TOP RB AWARD
Doak Walker
—
CONSENSUS
All-American
—
Player Standing · 17 rungs
Tier 2 · StarterR07 · Impact starter
Impact starter. Producing measurable value above replacement.
Not on team2-deepStarterRecognizedEliteApex
Development Trajectory · rushing yards
2020–2025+151%
Up 151% from first season to most-recent.
Career Arc
HS
Recruit
★★
CFB
College
2 teams
NFL
NFL Draft
—
Identity & Role
The durable bio layer: position, size, hometown, and roster role.
Recruiting Pedigree
How big the prospect was before college, and whether the later career arc beat that expectation.
| Class | Profile | Context |
|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 2-star | 0.7583 | No. 3832 recruit | HighSchool | Arkansas State |
Transfer Arc
Portal movement changes role, context, and perception. This keeps that path in one place.
| Season | Move | Context |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | Arkansas State -> -- | 2-star | Immediate |
Heisman Lens · 2024 Season · Final
Where the player landed at the end of the listed season — final nowcast rank, win/finalist/ballot probabilities, and the cleanest official Heisman placement on file.
HIGH CONFIDENCE· through week 16Heisman Futures
Not yet listed on major futures markets.
Achievements
- Program Benchmark 5.5% Program Benchmark Season leader for the program at the player's position across the headline volume metric (passing yards / rushing yards / receiving yards). Held by 5.5% of the 2025 pool. Team leader in receiving yards (311).
Selector Grid · 2025
AP—
FWAA—
AFCA—
WCFF—
SN—
SI—
Selector recognition fills in once the major honors lists (AP, FWAA, AFCA, Walter Camp, Sporting News, SI) are scraped and ingested.
NIL · Recruiting · NFL Draft
Market value, pedigree & pro outcome
Recruit stars
★★☆☆☆
to Arkansas State
Composite
0.7583
#3832 national
Today’s Hot-Take
The Hot-Take engine fires when this player’s percentile profile crosses a defensible threshold (top 10% in a cohort, 100+ snap sample). When it’s quiet, the model is honoring its “must be defensible” rule.
Anti-Take
PENDINGThe contrarian read fires when the rules-engine detects a stat that complicates the Hot-Take. Quiet here means the model hasn’t found a defensible counter yet — not that one doesn’t exist.
The Room on Lincoln Pare
Fan sentiment ·
Belief Meter
50
Mixed Sentiment
Top Take
“”
Trajectory
Per-cohort trajectory lands when historical bucket data is aggregated.
Cohort divergence map
- Own fans · n=1
Rival Radar
How rival fanbases talk about Lincoln Pare
No rival-bucket mentions in the current season.
Signature Story
Awaiting candidate metric
He hasn't written his page yet — we'll start filling it in when there are enough snaps to rank against his peers.
Signature Moment
No signature moment on the ledger yet.
Returns once this player puts together a multi-game body of work — single-game flashes alone don't clear the bar.
Season Pace · Projection
Where the rushing totals stand
Through 13g
1,129Rush yards
211Carries
12Rush TDs
Per game
86.8Rush yards
16Carries
1Rush TDs
Final
1,129Rush yards
211Carries
12Rush TDs
✓ Hit 750-yard season · finished with 1,129.
✓ Hit 1,000-yard season · finished with 1,129.
✓ Hit 10 rushing TDs · finished with 12.
Why this is more than a rushing profile
The fast read on the thing that makes this player more than a generic stat line.
Lincoln Pare is not a one-lane back. The profile is interesting because the workload spills beyond pure rushing volume: 1,129 rushing yards, 37 catches, and 13 return yards for Texas State. That kind of all-purpose footprint gives the card a much richer story than a basic carry total.
2025 Season · Final
Traditional stats first. Advanced context underneath.
Last season
RB season snapshot
2025 season snapshot | final
2025 season snapshot | finalData: CFBD player stats + local Heisman modelPeer context: same position + same level
Player identity What kind of player is this?
30-second read
What kind of player is this?
Workhorse | Passing-game back against FBS RB peers.
2025 Season · Final
2025 season snapshot | final
Rushing
CAR
211 97th
YDS
1,129 97th
YPC
5.4 72nd
TD
12 98th
Receiving
REC
37 99th
YDS
311 97th
YPR
8.4 66th
TD
2 97th
Game Log · Week-by-week
2025 season · 13 games
| Wk | Opp | CAR | YDS | AVG | TD | LONG | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | W 52-27vs Eastern Michigan | 12 | 167 | 13.9 | 1 | 57 | Season-high 167 yds |
| Wk 2 | W 43-36@ UTSA | 21 | 71 | 3.4 | 1 | 28 | |
| Wk 3 | L 15-34@ Arizona State | 13 | 61 | 4.7 | 0 | 18 | |
| Wk 4 | W 35-3vs Nicholls | 15 | 64 | 4.3 | 1 | 9 | |
| Wk 6 | L 30-31@ Arkansas State | 21 | 105 | 5.0 | 2 | 18 | |
| Wk 7 | L 41-48vs Troy | 22 | 113 | 5.1 | 3 | 62 | 3 rushing TDs |
| Wk 8 | L 37-40@ Marshall | 14 | 27 | 1.9 | 1 | 4 | |
| Wk 10 | L 20-52vs James Madison | 12 | 40 | 3.3 | 0 | 8 | |
| Wk 11 | L 39-42@ Louisiana | 10 | 89 | 8.9 | 1 | 54 | |
| Wk 12 | W 41-14@ Southern Miss | 21 | 118 | 5.6 | 1 | 20 | |
| Wk 13 | W 31-14vs UL Monroe | 19 | 76 | 4.0 | 0 | 18 | |
| Wk 14 | W 49-26vs South Alabama | 20 | 92 | 4.6 | 0 | 12 | |
| Bowl | W 41-10vs Rice | 11 | 106 | 9.6 | 1 | 63 | |
| Total | 211 | 1129 | 5.7 | 12 | 63 |
Season-by-season tables Career rows + per-season box score
Traditional history
Traditional Stats
Season rows up top, career context at the bottom.
Season context · Team result + system
2020Arkansas State4-7HC: Blake Anderson · Balanced, fast tempo
2021Arkansas State2-10HC: Butch Jones · Pass-heavy
2022Texas State4-8HC: Jake Spavital · Balanced
2025Texas State7-6HC: G.J. Kinne · Run-heavy
| Season | Team | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Texas State | 211 | 1,129 | 5.4 | 12 | -- |
| 2022 | Texas State | 172 | 760 | 4.4 | 5 | -- |
| 2021 | Arkansas State | 107 | 448 | 4.2 | 1 | -- |
| 2020 | Arkansas State | 72 | 450 | 6.2 | 1 | -- |
| Career | 4 loaded seasons | 562 | 2,787 | 5.0 | 19 | -- |
| Season | Team | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Texas State | 37 | 311 | 8.4 | 2 | -- |
| 2022 | Texas State | 29 | 229 | 7.9 | 1 | -- |
| 2021 | Arkansas State | 27 | 283 | 10.5 | 2 | -- |
| 2020 | Arkansas State | 12 | 85 | 7.1 | 2 | -- |
| Career | 4 loaded seasons | 105 | 908 | 8.6 | 7 | -- |
Advanced layer Usage, value, and context
Advanced metrics second
Advanced Metrics
Usage, value, and opponent-adjusted context.
Opponent-adjusted rushing value. It helps separate empty volume from carries that actually move the scoreboard.
How much of the team's offense flows through this back once rushing work and receiving work are combined.
Every percentile is compared against players at the same position and level, so an FBS quarterback is judged against FBS quarterbacks, not the whole sport.
The top tables stick to the stats fans already know from broadcasts and box scores. Advanced context is pushed underneath instead of replacing the basics.
Open full stat explorer
| Group | Metric | Value | Rank | Pct | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rushing | Rushing yards | 1,129 | #21/735 | 97th pct | Volumevs FBS RB |
| Rushing | Rush TD | 12 | #19/739 | 98th pct | Scoringvs FBS RB |
| Rushing | Yards / carry | 5.4 | #206/735 | 72nd pct | Efficiencyvs FBS RB |
| Receiving | Receptions | 37 | #9/552 | 99th pct | Volumevs FBS RB |
| Receiving | Receiving yards | 311 | #15/548 | 97th pct | Volumevs FBS RB |
| Value | Rushing WEPA | +0.25 | #23/362 | 94th pct | Opponent-adjusted rushing value | 201 weighted playsvs FBS RB |
| Usage | Role share | 25.9% | #39/738 | 95th pct | Share of team offensevs FBS RB |
| Rushing | Carries | 211 | #21/739 | 97th pct | Volumevs FBS RB |
| Rushing | Rushing LONG | 63 | #95/733 | 87th pct | Metricvs FBS RB |
| Receiving | Receiving LONG | 32 | #114/540 | 79th pct | Metricvs FBS RB |
| Receiving | Yards / catch | 8.4 | #190/548 | 66th pct | Efficiencyvs FBS RB |
| Receiving | Receiving TD | 2 | #20/552 | 97th pct | Scoringvs FBS RB |
| Returns | Kick return avg | 13.0 | #158/199 | 21st pct | Efficiencyvs FBS RB |
| Returns | Kick return yards | 13 | #172/200 | 14th pct | Volumevs FBS RB |
| Returns | Kick returns | 1 | #139/206 | 33rd pct | Volumevs FBS RB |
| Usage | Rush share | 37.8% | #72/738 | 90th pct | Ground-game usagevs FBS RB |
| Usage | Standard-down usage | 30.7% | #34/738 | 96th pct | Base-situation sharevs FBS RB |
| Usage | 1st-down usage | 28.8% | #47/738 | 94th pct | Early-down loadvs FBS RB |
| Usage | 2nd-down usage | 24.1% | #55/738 | 93rd pct | Middle-down loadvs FBS RB |
| Usage | 3rd-down usage | 22.7% | #12/738 | 99th pct | Money-down loadvs FBS RB |
| Usage | Passing-down usage | 14.2% | #81/738 | 89th pct | Known-passing sharevs FBS RB |
| Usage | Pass share | 9.6% | #37/738 | 95th pct | Air-game usagevs FBS RB |
Player Standing
Universal 17-step ladder. Tier pills below; accolade streams nested.
AWAITING CLASSIFICATION
On-team2-deepStartingRecognizedEliteApex
AWAITING CLASSIFICATION · Rung None of 16
Why he’s here
Standing classification populates when honors, Heisman, and roster signals all align.
What moves him up
What moves him down
Accolade streams
Status—Awaiting tracker
Heisman model tracks the top FBS contenders weekly; this player hasn't entered the watch list yet.
Splits · Per-game
2025 season · 13 games
Home vs Road
| YDS/g | YPC | TD/g | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home7g | 94.0 | 6.4 | 0.9 |
| Road6g | 78.5 | 4.9 | 1.0 |
Win vs Loss
| YDS/g | YPC | TD/g | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wins7g | 99.1 | 6.5 | 0.7 |
| Losses6g | 72.5 | 4.8 | 1.2 |
First half vs Second half
| YDS/g | YPC | TD/g | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Weeks 1-77g | 98.1 | 6.6 | 1.3 |
| Weeks 8+6g | 73.7 | 4.7 | 0.5 |
Pocket and defense-quality (clean vs. pressure) splits are coming soon.
Savant · Box-rate percentiles
Where this profile ranks vs the RB cohort
87All-Conference
Elite: receptions (96th). Strength: rec yards (96th).
Percentiles versus same-position peers with enough snaps this season, based on box-score rates.
Advanced Savant · RB · 2024
Percentile Card
Advanced opponent-adjusted percentile bars are coming soon for this player.
P4G5All FBS
Advanced Savant
Opponent-adjusted advanced metrics with a cohort filter.
wepa_rushing0.25Elite (≥p90) (n=178)
Peer Comparator · Fingerprint match
Three closest profiles by box-rate percentile
Lincoln PareTexas StateNate SheppardDuke· 96% simEmmett JohnsonNebraska· 93% simCam CookJacksonville State· 93% sim
Receptions
Rec yards
Rush yards
Carries
Rush TDs
Long run
Yards / carry
Closest peers by overall box-score percentile profile at the same position.
Player DNA
The Balanced Back
Plays within the scheme — consistent production without a dominant dimension.
RB
His 2025 production profile sits closest to Nelson Smith’s 2020 season.
Nelson Smith
78%match
#2
Juwaun Price
69%
#3
TJ Green
63%
#4
Jamal Jones
57%
#5
Jermaine Brown Jr.
62%
Matches Nelson on
Yards / carry
Rush TD rate
Height
Through 5 college seasons, his career arc tracks closest to La'Darren Brown’s path through Oklahoma State.
La'Darren Brown
100%match
#2
Charles Williams
99%
#3
Andrew Body
97%
#4
Herschel Turner
93%
#5
Caleb Ramseur
90%
Matches La'Darren on
Height
Weight
Yards per carry
As a graduate, his production profile tracks closest to Justice Ellison's graduate season at Indiana (2024).
Justice Ellison
63%match
#2
Jordan Simmons
61%
#3
Dontae McMillan
All-MAC
59%
#4
Jevyon Ducker
57%
#5
Noah Whittington
57%
Matches Justice on
Yards / carry
Total rush EPA (college ability)
Differs from Justice on
Recruiting rating (lower)
Weight (lower)
Receiving share (higher)
Supporting Cast · Scheme
Staff and system around the player
Head Coach
G.J. Kinne
Pass share
39.5%
358 pass / 549 run
Plays / game
69.8
13 games
OL sack rate (allowed)
9.4%
267 dropbacks · PBP
Scheme: Run-heavy.
Coaching Lineage · 2020–2025
2 coaches2020
Jake Spavital
Texas State
2021
Jake Spavital
Texas State
2022
Jake Spavital
Texas State
2025era →
G.J. Kinne
Texas State
Coaching transition mid-career: Jake Spavital → G.J. Kinne. Worth noting in scheme + development context.
Bio · Recruiting · Transfer · Roster
Off-field context — switch tabs to drill into recruit profile, transfer arc, or roster timeline.
HometownGermantown, TN
Height5'9"
Weight200 lb
Class4
PositionRB
Jersey7
No fields populated yet.
No fields populated yet.
Current teamTexas State
ConferenceSun Belt
Joined2025
Career arc6 season(s)
Trophy Case · Detail
Every honor on the ledger, broken out by stream and selector.
No formal honors on the ledger yet
All-America, all-conference, player-of-the-week, watch-list, and postseason awards land here when they're earned. The absence is the signal: most players never collect formal honors, and that's its own kind of context.
Honors Timeline
Season-end distinction and week-by-week recognition on one timeline.
| Season | Honor | Scope | Team / Selector | Context |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| No formal honors on the ledger yet. All-America, all-conference, weekly awards, watch lists, and postseason trophies land here when they’re earned. | ||||
Heisman By Year
Modeled rank and official finish by season.
| Season | Team | Role | Latest Model | Forecast | Win | Finalist | Official Finish | Points | Context |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Texas State | RB4 | #3273 | #3334 | 0.0% | 0.0% | -- | -- | W16 snapshot | Sun Belt |
| 2023 | Texas State | RB4 | #3440 | #3305 | 0.0% | 0.0% | -- | -- | W19 snapshot | Sun Belt |
| 2022 | Texas State | RB4 | #1175 | #1777 | 0.0% | 0.0% | -- | -- | W20 snapshot | Sun Belt |
| 2021 | Arkansas State | RB4 | #1158 | #1594 | 0.0% | 0.0% | -- | -- | W20 snapshot | Sun Belt |
| 2020 | Arkansas State | RB4 | #78 | #104 | 0.0% | 0.0% | -- | -- | W16 snapshot | Sun Belt |
Roster Timeline
Team, conference, and class by season.
| Season | Team | Conference | Pos | Class | Bio |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Texas State | Sun Belt | RB | 4 | No. 7 | 5-9 | 200 lb | Germantown, TN |
| 2024 | Texas State | Sun Belt | RB | 4 | No. 7 | 5-9 | 200 lb | Germantown, TN |
| 2023 | Texas State | Sun Belt | RB | 4 | No. 7 | 5-9 | 200 lb | Germantown, TN |
| 2022 | Texas State | Sun Belt | RB | 4 | No. 7 | 5-9 | 200 lb | Germantown, TN |
| 2021 | Arkansas State | Sun Belt | RB | 4 | No. 7 | 5-9 | 200 lb | Germantown, TN |
| 2020 | Arkansas State | Sun Belt | RB | 4 | No. 7 | 5-9 | 200 lb | Germantown, TN |