Next game
vs St. Norbert
Sat Oct 31 · 2 pm ET
Tomasini Stadium · series 2-2
Concordia-Wisconsin 82% to win · our ratings after 7 games
Concordia-Wisconsin
7-0NACC · Tomasini Stadium · 800 seats
Last game · Sat Oct 17
W 56-14 at Rockford
Our model gave Concordia-Wisconsin 96% before kickoff
The rest of the season
One real test left: Benedictine (IL) 51%
Win out 39% · expect 2.3 of 3 more wins
Concordia-Wisconsin's chance to win each game left, from our model: St. Norbert 82%, Wisconsin Lutheran 93%, Benedictine (IL) 51%Bar height is our model’s chance in each game left. Dashed line: 50%.
The nationunrankedAP / Coaches
The marketno line yetBetting line vs St. Norbert · our model 82% Concordia-Wisconsin
Updated Sat Oct 24 · through week 7
Schedule and results
Concordia-Wisconsin · 2026 schedule and results7-0Soft slateAverage opponent win rate 25%.Our rank entering each game: #526 to #513
| Wk | Date | Our rank | Opp rank | Line | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf | Top performers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 5 | #526 | #581 | — | @Ripon | W 38-14 | 1-0 | 0-0 | |
| 2 | Sep 12 | #526 | #615 | — | Martin Luther | W 48-13 | 2-0 | 0-0 | |
| 3 | Sep 19 | #524 | #476 | — | Aurora | W 29-28 | 3-0 | 1-0 | |
| 4 | Sep 26 | #522 | #542 | — | @Lakeland | W 49-28 | 4-0 | 2-0 | |
| 5 | Oct 3 | #507 | #567 | — | Concordia Chicago | W 21-14 | 5-0 | 3-0 | |
| 6 | Oct 10 | #514 | #661 | — | @Eureka | W 55-12 | 6-0 | 4-0 | |
| 7 | Oct 17 | #513 | #645 | — | @Rockford | W 56-14 | 7-0 | 5-0 | |
| 8 | Bye week | ||||||||
| 9 | Oct 31 | #504 | #542 | St. Norbert | 2 pm ET82% to win | ||||
| 10 | Nov 7 | Wisconsin Lutheran | 1 pm ET93% to win | ||||||
| 11 | Nov 14 | @Benedictine (IL) | 2 pm ET51% to win | ||||||
How to read this table
Win chances are our model for Concordia-Wisconsin, through 7 games. This week's game comes from the playoff simulation, later games from the rating model. They are estimates and move every week.
Line is the closing point spread for Concordia-Wisconsin: a minus number means favored. A green check means the team covered it, by the number beside it. A red cross means it fell short by that much.
What’s ahead
Off this week
7 days
until kickoff · vs St. Norbert · Sat Oct 31 · 2 pm ET
The forecast
The games that decide the season
The games that decide the season
Recent form · last 10 games
Concordia-Wisconsin has won seven straight.
9-1 over the last 10, and won the last seven.
Streak W7Last 5 · 5-0Last 10 · 9-1
Range of outcomes · Concordia-Wisconsin · 2026
Range of outcomes · Concordia-Wisconsin · 2026Concordia-Wisconsin’s most likely regular season is 9-1. 99% of outcomes land from 8-2 to 10-0.
Regular-season wins: chance of each total, from the game chances above
8 wins 12%; 9 wins 49%; 10 wins 39%What a title game and a playoff run could add
Floor10-2Competitive but likely outside bracket contention.
Base12-0Conference title contender. Bracket bid realistic.
Ceiling12-0Deep playoff run. Program-defining year.
Bars are the chance of each regular-season win total, from our model's chance in each game left, through 7 games. Paler bars are the outer 10% at each end. The closed row comes from the season-path projection, which also plays out conference title games and the CFP.
More in this tab
Worth watching
What it is like to watch them2026 · 7-0
Game feel60shootoutscombined pts / game1st highest-scoring of 9 in the NACC
Heart rate2-0white-knucklein one-score games (2 of 7)2nd most one-score games of 9 in the NACC
Margin+24.7comfortableavg scoring margin1st best margin of 9 in the NACC
Measured from 7 games · ranks are among NACC teams the same season
Team story
The weekly grind
The Falcons of Mequon, Wisconsin, a Lutheran university that broke through as 2025 NACC champions and hosted the program's first home NCAA Division III playoff game — small-school football arriving on the lakeshore.
Standard GapA program that just won its conference and made the playoffs, measured…
Concordia just won the NACC and hosted a home playoff game, and still has to prove it can hang with Division III's established powers.
Game day
The experience
The Falcons of Mequon, Wisconsin, a Lutheran university that broke through as 2025 NACC champions and hosted the program's first home NCAA Division III playoff game — small-school football arriving on the lakeshore.
Playoff path
Concordia-Wisconsin sits 1st in the NACC and 19th of 245 in the CFB Zeitgeist — in the projected field with a seedable rating.
NACC · 2026
| Team | Conf | Overall | Index | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Concordia (WI) | 5-0 | 7-0 | 67.4 |
| 2 | Benedictine (IL) | 4-0 | 6-0 | 67.5 |
| 3 | St. Norbert | 4-1 | 4-3 | 52.5 |
| 4 | Aurora | 3-1 | 3-3 | 53.0 |
| 5 | Concordia Chicago | 2-2 | 4-2 | 53.4 |
| 6 | Lakeland | 1-4 | 2-5 | 45.2 |
| 7 | Wisconsin Lutheran | 1-4 | 3-4 | 44.0 |
| 8 | Eureka | 0-4 | 0-6 | 31.8 |
67.4 CFB Zeitgeist#19 of 245 D341.1 strength of schedule
Win the NACC for the automatic berth into the 40-team NCAA Division III bracket. Miss it and the path is an at-large bid, selected by NPI — the metric the CFB Index mirrors. Six wins survive the bracket to the Stagg Bowl.
Source: CFB Zeitgeist — conference records + NPI-style rating from 2026 games · the field is 40 teams, NPI-selected
The 2026 season · 7-0
Signature win 55-12 over Eureka; toughest day 29-28 against Aurora.
Recruiting buzz
Community pulse
No high-engagement r/cfb discussions tracked for this program in the last year.
This page may include content derived from public news sources, social media, and fan communities. We relay these sources as-is — we are not reporting them. Sources may be summarized or quoted imperfectly; for anything that matters, go look at the original source directly. The original source may also be wrong. Text written by our model says so in a line beneath it, and it can get facts wrong. All analysis is editorial opinion, not professional reporting. Data sources · About this site