Next game
vs Crown
Sat Oct 24 · 2 pm ET
MLC Bowl · series 3-4, lost the last 3
Martin Luther University 58% to win · our ratings after 6 games
Martin Luther University
1-5Upper Midwest · MLC Bowl · 2,500 seats
Last game · Sat Oct 17
W 24-21 at Minnesota Morris
Our model gave Martin Luther University 47% before kickoff
The rest of the season
4 of 4 games under 70%, the hardest: Northwestern (MN) 14%
Win out <1% · expect 1.2 of 4 more wins
Martin Luther University's chance to win each game left, from our model: Crown 58%, Westminster (MO) 17%, Northwestern (MN) 14%, Greenville 32%Bar height is our model’s chance in each game left. Dashed line: 50%.
The nationunrankedAP / Coaches
The marketno line yetBetting line vs Crown · our model 58% Martin Luther University
Updated Sat Oct 24 · through week 7
Schedule and results
Martin Luther University · 2026 schedule and results1-5Balanced slateAverage opponent win rate 50%.Our rank entering each game: #609 to #636
| Wk | Date | Our rank | Opp rank | Line | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf | Top performers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 5 | #609 | #615 | — | Macalester | L 21-34 | 0-1 | 0-0 | |
| 2 | Sep 12 | #615 | #526 | — | @Concordia (WI) | L 13-48 | 0-2 | 0-0 | |
| 3 | Sep 19 | #619 | #639 | — | @Crown | L 9-13 | 0-3 | 0-1 | |
| 4 | Bye week | ||||||||
| 5 | Oct 3 | #623 | #580 | — | Northwestern (MN) | L 16-22 | 0-4 | 0-2 | |
| 6 | Oct 10 | #622 | #605 | — | @Greenville | L 0-28 | 0-5 | 0-3 | |
| 7 | Oct 17 | #636 | #666 | — | @Minnesota Morris | W 24-21 | 1-5 | 1-3 | |
| 8 | Oct 24 | #644 | #649 | Crown | 2 pm ET58% to win | ||||
| 9 | Oct 31 | #644 | #600 | Westminster (MO) | 1 pm ET17% to win | ||||
| 10 | Nov 7 | @Northwestern (MN) | 2 pm ET14% to win | ||||||
| 11 | Nov 14 | Greenville | 1 pm ET | ||||||
How to read this table
Win chances are our model for Martin Luther University, through 6 games. This week's game comes from the playoff simulation, later games from the rating model. They are estimates and move every week.
Line is the closing point spread for Martin Luther University: a minus number means favored. A green check means the team covered it, by the number beside it. A red cross means it fell short by that much.
Ahead
The forecast
The games that decide the season
The games that decide the season
Recent form · last 10 games
Martin Luther University has won one of its last five.
3-7 over the last 10, and won the last one.
Streak W1Last 5 · 1-4Last 10 · 3-7
Range of outcomes · Martin Luther University · 2026
Range of outcomes · Martin Luther University · 2026Martin Luther University’s most likely regular season is 2-8. 94% of outcomes land from 1-9 to 3-7.
Regular-season wins: chance of each total, from the game chances above
1 wins 20%; 2 wins 45%; 3 wins 28%; 4 wins 6%What a title game and a playoff run could add
Floor1-11Rebuild year. Below .500.
Base2-10Mid-table finish.
Ceiling5-7Conference title race. Bracket qualifier in range.
Bars are the chance of each regular-season win total, from our model's chance in each game left, through 6 games. Paler bars are the outer 10% at each end. The closed row comes from the season-path projection, which also plays out conference title games and the CFP.
More in this tab
Worth watching
What it is like to watch them2026 · 1-5
Game feel42rock fightscombined pts / game6th highest-scoring of 6 in the Upper Midwest
Heart rate1-2white-knucklein one-score games (3 of 6)1st most one-score games of 6 in the Upper Midwest
Margin-13.8competitiveavg scoring margin4th best margin of 6 in the Upper Midwest
Measured from 6 games · ranks are among Upper Midwest teams the same season
Team story
The weekly grind
Minnesota evangelical institution with resurrection narrative—restarted football in 1972 after 35-year dormancy and built stable UMAC presence through 31-year legendary coach tenure.
Title DroughtSince 2003 · 23 yrs
Fans here believe martin Luther resurrected football after 35 years dormant. The program exists because of institutional commitment, not athletic ambition. That commitment endures.
Game day
The experience
Minnesota evangelical institution with resurrection narrative—restarted football in 1972 after 35-year dormancy and built stable UMAC presence through 31-year legendary coach tenure.
Playoff path
Martin Luther University sits 5th in the Upper Midwest Conference and 217th of 245 in the CFB Zeitgeist — outside the at-large picture — the path runs through the conference title.
Upper Midwest · 2026
| Team | Conf | Overall | Index | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Northwestern (MN) | 3-0 | 3-3 | 47.8 |
| 2 | Westminster (MO) | 2-1 | 4-2 | 51.2 |
| 3 | Greenville | 2-1 | 3-3 | 47.5 |
| 4 | Crown | 2-2 | 2-4 | 38.9 |
| 5 | Martin Luther | 1-3 | 1-5 | 35.5 |
| 6 | Minnesota Morris | 0-3 | 1-5 | 32.3 |
| 7 | Finlandia University | 0-0 | 0-0 | — |
35.5 CFB Zeitgeist#217 of 245 D347.0 strength of schedule
Win the Upper Midwest Conference for the automatic berth into the 40-team NCAA Division III bracket. Miss it and the path is an at-large bid, selected by NPI — the metric the CFB Index mirrors. Six wins survive the bracket to the Stagg Bowl.
Source: CFB Zeitgeist — conference records + NPI-style rating from 2026 games · the field is 40 teams, NPI-selected
The 2026 season · 1-5
Signature win 24-21 over Minnesota Morris; toughest day 13-48 against Concordia (WI).
Recruiting buzz
Community pulse
No high-engagement r/cfb discussions tracked for this program in the last year.
This page may include content derived from public news sources, social media, and fan communities. We relay these sources as-is — we are not reporting them. Sources may be summarized or quoted imperfectly; for anything that matters, go look at the original source directly. The original source may also be wrong. Text written by our model says so in a line beneath it, and it can get facts wrong. All analysis is editorial opinion, not professional reporting. Data sources · About this site