Next game
vs Ripon
Sat Oct 24 · 2 pm ET
Legacy Field in Carlson Stadium · first meeting on record
Luther College 73% to win · our ratings after 7 games
Luther College
4-3Midwest · Legacy Field in Carlson Stadium · 5,000 seats
Last game · Sat Oct 17
L 3-57 at Lake Forest
Our model gave Luther College 5% before kickoff
The rest of the season
One real test left: Grinnell 37%
Win out 23% · expect 1.9 of 3 more wins
Luther College's chance to win each game left, from our model: Ripon 73%, Knox 84%, Grinnell 37%Bar height is our model’s chance in each game left. Dashed line: 50%.
The nationunrankedAP / Coaches
The marketno line yetBetting line vs Ripon · our model 73% Luther College
Updated Sat Oct 24 · through week 7
Schedule and results
Luther College · 2026 schedule and results4-3Balanced slateAverage opponent win rate 46%.Our rank entering each game: #665 to #632
| Wk | Date | Our rank | Opp rank | Line | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf | Top performers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 5 | #665 | #659 | — | Lawrence | W 30-7 | 1-0 | 1-0 | |
| 2 | Sep 12 | #665 | #635 | — | @Millikin | L 14-37 | 1-1 | 1-0 | |
| 3 | Sep 19 | #664 | #649 | — | @Beloit | W 28-0 | 2-1 | 2-0 | |
| 4 | Sep 26 | #660 | #599 | — | Cornell (IA) | W 26-13 | 3-1 | 3-0 | |
| 5 | Oct 3 | #650 | #534 | — | Illinois College | W 27-26 | 4-1 | 4-0 | |
| 6 | Oct 10 | #641 | #478 | — | @Monmouth (IL) | L 13-30 | 4-2 | 4-1 | |
| 7 | Oct 17 | #632 | #449 | — | @Lake Forest | L 3-57 | 4-3 | 4-2 | |
| 8 | Oct 24 | #626 | #602 | Ripon | 2 pm ET73% to win | ||||
| 9 | Oct 31 | #626 | #650 | Knox | 2 pm ET84% to win | ||||
| 10 | Bye week | ||||||||
| 11 | Nov 14 | @Grinnell | 2 pm ET37% to win | ||||||
How to read this table
Win chances are our model for Luther College, through 7 games. This week's game comes from the playoff simulation, later games from the rating model. They are estimates and move every week.
Line is the closing point spread for Luther College: a minus number means favored. A green check means the team covered it, by the number beside it. A red cross means it fell short by that much.
Ahead
The forecast
The games that decide the season
The games that decide the season
Recent form · last 10 games
Luther College has won three of its last five.
4-6 over the last 10, and lost the last two.
Streak L2Last 5 · 3-2Last 10 · 4-6
Range of outcomes · Luther College · 2026
Range of outcomes · Luther College · 2026Luther College’s most likely regular season is 6-4. 97% of outcomes land from 5-5 to 7-3.
Regular-season wins: chance of each total, from the game chances above
4 wins 3%; 5 wins 23%; 6 wins 51%; 7 wins 23%What a title game and a playoff run could add
Floor5-7Rebuild year. Below .500.
Base7-5Mid-table finish.
Ceiling9-3Conference title race. Bracket qualifier in range.
Bars are the chance of each regular-season win total, from our model's chance in each game left, through 7 games. Paler bars are the outer 10% at each end. The closed row comes from the season-path projection, which also plays out conference title games and the CFP.
More in this tab
Worth watching
What it is like to watch them2026 · 4-3
Game feel44rock fightscombined pts / game9th highest-scoring of 11 in the Midwest
Heart rate1-0some dramain one-score games (1 of 7)7th most one-score games of 11 in the Midwest
Margin-4.1competitiveavg scoring margin5th best margin of 11 in the Midwest
Measured from 7 games · ranks are among Midwest teams the same season
Team story
The weekly grind·Written June 2026
The Iowa powerhouse saying goodbye to the American Rivers Conference and hello to the Midwest Conference — a historic transition year bridging two eras.
Title DroughtSince 1978 · 48 yrs
Luther dominated the American Rivers Conference for decades, last winning the title in 1978. As the 2025 season closes, Luther is leaving the ARC that built it, moving to the…
Game day
The experience
The Iowa powerhouse saying goodbye to the American Rivers Conference and hello to the Midwest Conference — a historic transition year bridging two eras.
Playoff path
Luther College sits 4th in the Midwest Conference and 119th of 245 in the CFB Zeitgeist — outside the at-large picture — the path runs through the conference title.
Midwest · 2026
| Team | Conf | Overall | Index | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lake Forest | 6-0 | 7-0 | 67.1 |
| 2 | Chicago | 4-0 | 5-1 | 59.4 |
| 3 | Monmouth (IL) | 4-0 | 4-2 | 55.9 |
| 4 | Luther | 4-2 | 4-3 | 50.6 |
| 5 | Grinnell | 3-2 | 4-3 | 47.0 |
| 6 | Cornell (IA) | 3-3 | 3-4 | 44.3 |
| 7 | Illinois College | 2-3 | 3-4 | 46.2 |
| 8 | Ripon | 1-3 | 1-5 | 38.1 |
50.6 CFB Zeitgeist#119 of 245 D347.1 strength of schedule
Win the Midwest Conference for the automatic berth into the 40-team NCAA Division III bracket. Miss it and the path is an at-large bid, selected by NPI — the metric the CFB Index mirrors. Six wins survive the bracket to the Stagg Bowl.
Source: CFB Zeitgeist — conference records + NPI-style rating from 2026 games · the field is 40 teams, NPI-selected
The 2026 season · 4-3
Signature win 28-0 over Beloit; toughest day 3-57 against Lake Forest.
Recruiting buzz
Community pulse
No high-engagement r/cfb discussions tracked for this program in the last year.
This page may include content derived from public news sources, social media, and fan communities. We relay these sources as-is — we are not reporting them. Sources may be summarized or quoted imperfectly; for anything that matters, go look at the original source directly. The original source may also be wrong. Text written by our model says so in a line beneath it, and it can get facts wrong. All analysis is editorial opinion, not professional reporting. Data sources · About this site