Missouri State

1-1

Conference USA · Casey Woods, year 1 (1-1) · Plaster Sports Complex · 17,337 · 12,138 avg in 2026

The nationunrankedAP / Coaches
The model#95 CFB ZeitgeistSP+ #132 (-24.3) · FPI #118
The marketMarshall by 3.5vs Marshall · our model 38% Missouri State · a number, not a pick

LastW 48–14 vs Lindenwood · Sat Sep 12 · Isaiah Myers 24 rush yds, 1 TD, 155 rec yds

Nextvs Marshall · Sat Sep 19 · 6:30 pm ET · Plaster Sports Complex · Marshall by 3.5 · series 1-0 · Game preview

Updated Tue Sep 15 · through week 2

Key stats — 2026 — FBS rank
Points/game
24.0
Pts allowed/game
32.0
Total yards/gm#115 / 138 · 17th pct
325.5
Rush yards/gm#89 / 138 · 36th pct
150.5
Pass yards/gm#108 / 138 · 22nd pct
175.0
Yards allowed/gmT-#90 / 138 · 35th pct
364.0
Rush yds allowed/gmT-#109 / 138 · 21st pct
177.0
SacksT-#38 / 138 · 65th pct
5
InterceptionsT-#63 / 115 · 23rd pct
1
3rd-down convT-#96 / 138 · 30th pct
34.8%
All 79 stats
Offense / Defense
Total yards
Team
651325.5/gm5.52/play#115 / 138 · 17th pct#65 / 70 · 8th pct#9 / 10 · 15th pct
Opp
728364.0/gm5.24/playT-#90 / 138 · 35th pct#57 / 70 · 19th pct#7 / 10 · 35th pct
Rush yards
Team
301150.5/gm2.55/play#89 / 138 · 36th pct#47 / 70 · 34th pct#5 / 10 · 55th pct
Opp
354177.0/gm2.55/playT-#109 / 138 · 21st pct#66 / 70 · 6th pctT-#6 / 10 · 40th pct
Rush carries
Team
7638.0/gmT-#62 / 138 · 53rd pctT-#31 / 70 · 51st pct#5 / 10 · 55th pct
Opp
8140.5/gm#112 / 138 · 19th pct#65 / 70 · 8th pct#7 / 10 · 35th pct
Rush TDs
Team
63.0/gmT-#27 / 138 · 78th pctT-#19 / 70 · 71st pct#2 / 10 · 85th pct
Opp
31.5/gmT-#86 / 138 · 31st pctT-#57 / 70 · 16th pctT-#4 / 10 · 55th pct
Net pass yards
Team
350175.0/gm2.97/play#108 / 138 · 22nd pct#62 / 70 · 12th pct#9 / 10 · 15th pct
Opp
374187.0/gm2.69/play#58 / 138 · 58th pct#39 / 70 · 45th pct#7 / 10 · 35th pct
Pass attempts
Team
4221.0/gm#122 / 138 · 12th pct#64 / 70 · 9th pct#10 / 10 · 5th pct
Opp
5829.0/gmT-#61 / 138 · 55th pct#37 / 70 · 48th pct#6 / 10 · 45th pct
Completions
Team
2914.5/gmT-#111 / 138 · 19th pctT-#60 / 70 · 14th pct#9 / 10 · 15th pct
Opp
3316.5/gmT-#50 / 138 · 60th pctT-#31 / 70 · 51st pctT-#6 / 10 · 40th pct
Pass TDs
Team
10.5/gmT-#114 / 138 · 11th pctT-#60 / 70 · 9th pctT-#9 / 10 · 10th pct
Opp
52.5/gmT-#122 / 138 · 10th pctT-#67 / 70 · 4th pct#9 / 10 · 15th pct
Passer rating#60 / 115 · 48th pct#41 / 60 · 32nd pct
142.1142.1
Interceptions thrown
Team
00.0/gmT-#92 / 138 · 17th pctT-#42 / 70 · 21st pctT-#9 / 10 · 10th pct
Opp
10.5/gmT-#24 / 138 · 64th pctT-#11 / 70 · 64th pctT-#3 / 10 · 55th pct
Sacks (def)
Team
52.5/gmT-#38 / 138 · 65th pctT-#21 / 70 · 60th pctT-#3 / 10 · 70th pct
Opp
21.0/gmT-#33 / 138 · 67th pctT-#20 / 70 · 61st pctT-#3 / 10 · 70th pct
Tackles for loss
Team
115.5/gmT-#63 / 138 · 49th pctT-#37 / 70 · 42nd pct#6 / 10 · 45th pct
Opp
115.5/gmT-#81 / 138 · 34th pctT-#47 / 70 · 27th pct#6 / 10 · 45th pct
First downs
Team
3115.5/gmT-#121 / 138 · 11th pct#65 / 70 · 8th pct#10 / 10 · 5th pct
Opp
4623.0/gmT-#114 / 138 · 16th pctT-#65 / 70 · 6th pct#8 / 10 · 25th pct
3rd-down conv
Team
84.0/gmT-#104 / 138 · 21st pctT-#57 / 70 · 15th pct#9 / 10 · 15th pct
Opp
94.5/gmT-#52 / 138 · 58th pctT-#36 / 70 · 45th pctT-#3 / 10 · 60th pct
3rd-down att
Team
2311.5/gmT-#91 / 138 · 30th pctT-#43 / 70 · 34th pctT-#8 / 10 · 20th pct
Opp
2713.5/gmT-#54 / 138 · 59th pctT-#28 / 70 · 58th pct#5 / 10 · 55th pct
4th-down conv
Team
21.0/gmT-#51 / 138 · 51st pctT-#28 / 70 · 49th pctT-#4 / 10 · 50th pct
Opp
31.5/gmT-#104 / 138 · 19th pctT-#56 / 70 · 16th pctT-#7 / 10 · 30th pct
4th-down att
Team
52.5/gmT-#27 / 138 · 74th pctT-#13 / 70 · 74th pctT-#2 / 10 · 70th pct
Opp
31.5/gmT-#54 / 138 · 52nd pctT-#30 / 70 · 49th pctT-#4 / 10 · 50th pct
Time of possession
Team
51:0725:34/gm#130 / 138 · 6th pct#69 / 70 · 2nd pct#10 / 10 · 5th pct
Opp
68:5334:26/gm#121 / 138 · 13th pct#69 / 70 · 2nd pct#8 / 10 · 25th pct

FBS rankings · 2026 season · all stats vs 136 FBS programs

Player stats — 2026 season
Quarterbacks
Player#GCmp/AttPctYdsY/ATDINTRateZPRQBRAdj ANY/ASack%
+0.38 EPA/play9225 / 3767.62887.810141.9
Running Backs
Player#GCarYdsAvgTDLongStuff%10+%
+0.29 EPA/play1222974.4125
Receivers
Player#GRecYdsAvgTDLong
1315155
#61 FBS
31172
+0.45 EPA/play29546014

2026 stat leaders · Missouri State

through 2 games

Jared Lloyd leads Missouri State with 19 tackles through 2 games.

1. Jared Lloyd LB 19 tackles
2. Isaiah Myers WR 155 receiving yards
3. Jashawn Cooper LB 9 tackles
4. Gilles Tchio DL 1 sacks
5. Joel Boamah CB 8 tackles
How They Play · 2025

Missouri State fields a capable pass-first, explosive, big-play offense behind a porous, gives up the big play defense.

Offense
49th pct EPA/play
Run/Pass
52% pass plays
Tempo
98th pct explosiveness
Defense
11th pct EPA allowed
Defensive shape
25th pct at limiting explosive plays

Percentile vs all FBS, based on this season's per-game production. Bar = where this team ranks — right is better.

The Savant Card · Missouri State · 2025

Missouri State reads strongest in explosive plays (top 2%) and passing epa (top 34%); the crux lives in epa allowed, where Missouri State sits at the 11th percentile.

offense · strengths lead

EPA / play +0.17
49th
Success Rate +0.39
22nd
Explosive Plays +1.49
98th
Rushing EPA +0.03
22nd

defense · higher bar = harder to play against

EPA Allowed +0.24
11th
Success Rate Allowed +0.42
38th
Explosive Plays Allowed +1.32
25th
Passing EPA Allowed +0.33
22nd

hidden math · special situations

Passing EPA +0.32
67th
Rushing EPA Allowed +0.17
19th
Elite · 90+Strong · 70+Average · 40-70Concern · 10-40Bottom · <10
Sources · CFBD tier-2 advanced stats · per-game production · 13 games this season · percentiles vs. up to 136 FBS peers

Home-field advantage · Missouri State · 2018–present · FBS opponents

Missouri State is worth +4.9 points more at home than on the road.

Middle of FBS, 65th percentile of 133 programs

25% at home, 24% away against FBS opponents since 2018 (2–6 home, 4–13 away). Interval ±7.8.

95% intervalmodel 2.3 · books ~3Weakest home edge in FBSStrongest

Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge — per-team modelling was tested and did not survive scrutiny (why) — and the books use about 3. Against the closing line, Missouri State has beaten the number by +0.9 more at home than away over 45 games — inside the ±8.6 that many games can resolve. Results here cannot tell the flat number apart from the building, and that is the honest reading of nearly every FBS stadium.

Plaster Sports Complex seats 17,337 and has averaged 62% full (10,811, 12 games reported). Visitors cover a median 361 miles to get here since 2018 — 57th-shortest of 135 FBS venues, inside the ordinary range. For the home side it is a home crowd more than a home town: only 5% of the 2026 roster (5 of 97 located players) grew up inside 100 miles of the stadium.

Edge = half the gap between average home margin and average road margin, FBS opponents only, non-neutral games since 2018; the interval is 95%. Market line: closing spread, seasons with lines on file. Trip length is straight-line miles from the visiting team's campus to the venue, measured across all 40 home games since 2018.

Home2–6Away4–13Edge+4.9 ±7.8Visitor trip361 mi

More in this tab

RatingsWhere the public rating systems put this team.

Model Consensus

Where the Models Rank Missouri State

CFB Zeitgeist

#95

-2.3

SP+

#132

-24.3

FPI

#118

-11.9

Elo

#122

1268

The national models put Missouri State between 118th and 132nd nationally — CFB Zeitgeist is higher on them than any of these models, at 95th.

National rank of 138 FBS teams · 2026 season. SP+/FPI/SRS published; Elo & CFB Zeitgeist ranked by rating.

Comparable teamsPrograms built like this one — tier, prestige band, kind of fanbase, roster size. Not a stat match.

Most similar programs · Missouri State

Reads like

Matched on how the programs are built — tier, prestige band, kind of fanbase, conference, voice and roster size — not on this season's stats. A calibration, not a prediction.

ConditionsThe weather and altitude visitors have to deal with.
Venue texture

69°F average kickoff temp; 0% of games had measurable precipitation; 9 mph average wind.

Based on 30 home games with weather data.

This page may include content derived from public news sources, social media, and fan communities. We relay these sources as-is — we are not reporting them. Sources may be summarized or quoted imperfectly; for anything that matters, go look at the original source directly. The original source may also be wrong. AI-generated content is labeled and may contain factual errors. All analysis is editorial opinion, not professional reporting. Data sources · About this site