Next game: vs West Virginia
Texas Tech’s best edge on West Virginia is staying on schedule
Each unit against the one it meets, by national percentile this season. A filled dot is the attack and a ring is the defense it meets; the first name is the attack. Further right is better for both.
Texas Tech offense against West Virginia defense
West Virginia offense against Texas Tech defense
Percentiles are against all FBS teams this season.
Key stats
Each bar is the team’s national rank as a percentile. A longer bar is better, for defense too.
All 98 stats
FBS rankings · 2026 season · all stats vs 136 FBS programs
| Player | # | G | Cmp/Att | Pct | Yds | Y/A | TD | INT | Rate | ZPR | QBR | Adj ANY/A | Sack% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Game Manager · +0.21 EPA/play | 15 | 7 | 139 / 205 | 67.8 | 1561 #73 FBS | 7.6 | 6 | 6 | 135.6 | 48 | 63.4 | 6.3 | 4.2 | |
Yards by week → Game managerConsistent underneath passer who protects the lead. Rarely loses games; rarely wins them alone. In the Heisman race — our Heisman model ranks this player #24 right now. This week's matchup — QB Hammond keeps the offense on schedule and doesn't lose the game. Mestemaker is the one who runs when the pocket breaks down. Season receipt Completion %68.1% 79th percentile · FBS QBs, min. 80 attempts Rush usage16.3% bottom 30th percentile · FBS QBs, min. 80 attempts Trait fingerprint Plays like View Will Hammond's full player page | ||||||||||||||
| +0.38 EPA/play | 4 | 5 | 14 / 29 | 48.3 | 189 | 6.5 | 4 | 1 | 141.6 | — | 77.8 | — | — | |
Yards by week → | ||||||||||||||
| Player | # | G | Car | Yds | Avg | TD | Long | Stuff% | 10+% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Complete Back · +0.30 EPA/play | 20 | 8 | 100 | 794 #18 FBS | 7.9 | 6 #55 FBS | 64 | 13.1 | 22.2 | |
Yards by week → Complete backThreatens defenses in every dimension — rushing, receiving, third-down. Starter — 100 carries and 25 catches in 8 games, more touches a game than most FBS running backs who play every week. This week's matchup — RB Williams beats you as a runner and a receiver. Hawkins is the one who just keeps getting the ball, series after series. Season receipt Yards / carry8.2 100th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Receiving share20.0% 96th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Trait fingerprint Plays like View J'Koby Williams's full player page | ||||||||||
| Balanced Back · +0.11 EPA/play | 8 | 6 | 66 | 274 | 4.2 | 4 | 16 | 17.2 | 15.6 | |
Yards by week → Balanced backPlays within the scheme — consistent production without a dominant dimension. 66 carries and 6 catches in 6 games. About as many touches a game as a typical FBS running back who plays every week. The most common profile in its group this season — 134 of 278 classified this way. Played in 6 of 10 games this season · freshman · 3-star, 2024 class View Cameron Dickey's full player page | ||||||||||
| Workhorse · -0.08 EPA/play | — | 8 | 57 | 249 | 4.4 | 3 | 30 | 26.3 | 17.5 | |
Yards by week → WorkhorseBuilt to take 20+ carries per game. Volume is the value. 57 carries and 2 catches in 8 games. Fewer touches a game than most FBS running backs who play every week. This week's matchup — RB Joyner just keeps getting the ball, series after series. Hawkins is the one who just keeps getting the ball, series after series. Season receipt Weight220 lb 86th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Receiving share3.4% bottom 9th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Plays like View Quinten Joyner's full player page | ||||||||||
| Player | # | G | Rec | Yds | Avg | TD | Long | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slot Technician · +0.56 EPA/play | 2 | 8 | 35 | 548 #56 FBS | 15.7 | 2 | 45 | |
Yards by week → Slot technician· Money-downRuns precise routes in tight quarters. Volume player who keeps chains moving. lives on the sticks and moves the chains 35 catches in 8 games. About as many catches a game as a typical FBS receiver who plays every week. This week's matchup — WR Johnson wins underneath on volume and route precision. Bowick is the one who beats you over the top. Season receipt Reception volume35 79th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Plays like View Kenny Johnson's full player page | ||||||||
| Possession Receiver · +0.43 EPA/play | 3 | 8 | 23 | 263 | 11.4 | 3 | 32 | |
Yards by week → Possession receiverReliable target who converts on critical downs. Not flashy; consistently productive. 23 catches and 1 pass attempt in 8 games. Fewer catches a game than most FBS receivers who play every week. The most common profile in its group this season — 279 of 467 classified this way. Played in 8 of 10 games this season · freshman · 3-star, 2022 class View Coy Eakin's full player page | ||||||||
| Complete TE · +0.25 EPA/play | 7 | 6 | 20 | 193 | 9.7 | 2 | 24 | |
Yards by week → Complete TENo single go-to route — the receiving numbers show up inline and split out alike. 20 catches and 3 carries in 6 games. More catches a game than most FBS tight ends who play every week. 126 of 166 TEs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Yards / reception9.3 bottom 33th percentile · FBS TEs, min. 8 receptions EPA / play (adj)0.2 bottom 24th percentile · FBS TEs, min. 8 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Terrance Carter's full player page | ||||||||
| Possession Receiver · -0.05 EPA/play | 1 | 7 | 13 | 141 | 10.8 | 0 | 18 | |
Yards by week → Possession receiverReliable target who converts on critical downs. Not flashy; consistently productive. This week's matchup — WR Hudson moves the chains on third down. Bowick is the one who beats you over the top. Season receipt Yards / reception11.4 bottom 28th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions EPA / play (adj)-0.0 bottom 5th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Micah Hudson's full player page | ||||||||
| +0.67 EPA/play | 85 | 4 | 7 | 83 | 11.9 | 0 | 36 | |
Yards by week → | ||||||||
| +0.34 EPA/play | 5 | 4 | 5 | 60 | 12 | 1 | 24 | |
Yards by week → | ||||||||
| Player | # | G | Tot | Solo | TFL | Sack | Hur |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3-Tech Penetrator | 10 | 8 | 25 | 12 | 7.5 #73 FBS | 6.5 #16 FBS | 6 |
3-tech penetratorDisruptive interior rusher who lives in the backfield. Starter — 25 tackles in 8 games, about as many tackles a game as a typical FBS defensive lineman who plays every week. 200 of 606 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate30.0% 91th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Anthony Holmes Jr.'s full player page | |||||||
| 3-Tech Penetrator | 98 | 8 | 18 | 10 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 5 |
3-tech penetratorDisruptive interior rusher who lives in the backfield. 18 tackles in 8 games. Fewer tackles a game than most FBS defensive linemen who play every week. 200 of 606 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate13.9% bottom 46th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Mateen Ibirogba's full player page | |||||||
| 3-Tech Penetrator | 1 | 4 | 13 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
3-tech penetratorDisruptive interior rusher who lives in the backfield. 200 of 606 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt View Julien Laventure's full player pageTFL rate23.1% 76th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles | |||||||
| Nose Anchor | 92 | 6 | 13 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Nose anchorThe heaviest frame on the interior. Sack production is intentionally not the point of this profile. 130 of 606 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Weight320 lb 90th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Bryce Butler's full player page | |||||||
| Player | # | G | Tot | Solo | Ast | TFL | Sack | PD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sideline-to-Sideline | 15 | 8 | 66 | 37 | 29 | 4 | 1.5 | 3 | 2 #51 FBS |
Sideline-to-sidelineRanges from hash to hash and makes his own tackles. Impact starter — 66 tackles in 8 games, more tackles a game than most FBS linebackers who play every week. 83 of 564 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Solo tackle rate0.6 77th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Tackle volume66 95th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like View Austin Romaine's full player page | |||||||||
| Coverage 'Backer | 13 | 8 | 60 | 31 | 29 | 6.5 | 1 | 4 | 1 |
Coverage ’backerCarries tight ends and patrols the middle of the field in coverage. Starter — 60 tackles in 8 games, more tackles a game than most FBS linebackers who play every week. 89 of 564 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate6.7% 86th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Ben Roberts's full player page | |||||||||
| Balanced Linebacker | 6 | 8 | 42 | 22 | 20 | 4.5 | 1 | 1 | 3 #16 FBS |
Balanced linebackerSolid in every phase without a signature dimension. 42 tackles in 8 games. About as many tackles a game as a typical FBS linebacker who plays every week. The most common profile in its group this season — 330 of 564 classified this way. Played in 8 of 10 games this season · freshman · 3-star, 2023 class View John Curry's full player page | |||||||||
| Thumper | 20 | 8 | 16 | 9 | 7 | 3.5 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
ThumperDownhill striker who fills the run lane and blitzes off the edge. 62 of 564 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate21.9% 98th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Sack rate12.5% 99th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like View Adam Trick's full player page | |||||||||
| Coverage 'Backer | 9 | 5 | 16 | 10 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
Coverage ’backerCarries tight ends and patrols the middle of the field in coverage. 89 of 564 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate6.2% 83th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles TFL rate0.0% bottom 9th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like View Corey Platt Jr.'s full player page | |||||||||
| 2 | 6 | 14 | 8 | 6 | 3.5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| 8 | 5 | 12 | 6 | 6 | 4.5 | 2.5 | 0 | 0 | |
| 32 | 6 | 11 | 8 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | |
| 97 | 6 | 10 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 45 | 5 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Player | # | G | Tot | PD | INT | TFL | Sack |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hybrid Nickel | 24 | 7 | 39 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Hybrid nickelMoves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB. Starter — 39 tackles in 7 games, about as many tackles a game as a typical FBS defensive back who plays every week. 358 of 657 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate5.1% bottom 36th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Malik Esquerra's full player page | |||||||
| Hybrid Nickel | 7 | 5 | 29 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Hybrid nickelMoves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB. 29 tackles in 5 games. About as many tackles a game as a typical FBS defensive back who plays every week. The most common profile in its group this season — 358 of 657 classified this way. Played in 5 of 10 games this season · freshman · 4-star, 2023 class View Brenden Jordan's full player page | |||||||
| Hybrid Nickel | 3 | 8 | 28 | 0 | 2 #51 FBS | 1.5 | 0 |
Hybrid nickel· Takeaway threatMoves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB. the kind of DB who takes it back the other way 28 tackles in 8 games. About as many tackles a game as a typical FBS defensive back who plays every week. The most common profile in its group this season — 358 of 657 classified this way. Played in 8 of 10 games this season · freshman · 4-star, 2024 class View Peyton Morgan's full player page | |||||||
| Cover Corner | 14 | 8 | 27 | 4 | 2 #51 FBS | 0 | 0 |
Cover cornerSteady in coverage; doesn't get beat deep and rarely gives up the big play. 27 tackles in 8 games. Fewer tackles a game than most FBS defensive backs who play every week. The most common profile in its group this season — 138 of 244 classified this way. Played in 8 of 10 games this season · freshman View Brice Pollock's full player page | |||||||
| Ball Hawk | 4 | 7 | 19 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Ball hawkReads the quarterback's eyes and takes the ball away. 36 of 244 CBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate26.3% 88th percentile · FBS corners, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Davin Martin's full player page | |||||||
| Ball Hawk | 27 | 6 | 14 | 4 | 2 #51 FBS | 1 | 0 |
Ball hawkReads the quarterback's eyes and takes the ball away. 36 of 244 CBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate28.6% 92th percentile · FBS corners, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Amier Boyd-Matthews's full player page | |||||||
| 22 | 5 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Player | # | G | FG M/A | FG% | XP M/A | Pts | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steady | 48 | 8 | 17/21 | 81.0 | 30/31 | 81 | 52 |
| Player | # | G | No | Yds | Avg | Long | In20 | TB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cannon | 49 | 8 | 27 | 1271 | 47.1 | 67 | 13 | 1 |
Net average is unavailable — CFBD's punting feed carries gross yards only, with no return-yardage or touchback deduction.
| Player | # | G | No | Yds | Avg | TD | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Complete Back · +0.30 EPA/play | 20 | 8 | 8 | 227 | 28.4 | 0 | 45 |
| Player | # | G | No | Yds | Avg | TD | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slot Technician · +0.56 EPA/play | 2 | 8 | 15 | 148 | 9.9 | 0 | 34 |
| +0.18 EPA/play | 11 | 5 | 3 | 29 | 9.7 | 0 | 15 |
Biggest plays from Texas Tech’s games
Official highlights with our numbers: the plays that moved the chance to win most in Texas Tech’s games this season, whoever made them.
Q3, 2:33 · Texas Tech down 6, takes the leadThomas Castellanos finds Kenny Johnson for a 27-yard touchdownArizona at Texas Tech, week 9Q3, 2:33 · Texas Tech 24, Arizona 23Go-ahead score for Texas Tech in the third quarterGo-ahead score for Texas Tech in the third quarterT.Castellanos pass complete deep left to K.Johnson caught at ARI02, for 27 yards to the ARI00 touchdown, 1ST DOWN, kick good▶Watch from this play
- Q3, 8:49 · Texas Tech down 15Peyton Morgan takes an interception 53 yards for a pick-sixTexas Tech at Cincinnati, week 8Q3, 8:49 · Texas Tech 15, Cincinnati 2453Pick-six53Pick-sixPick-sixPeyton Morgan 53 yd Interception Return (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)▶Watch from this play
Q2, 10:02 · Arizona down 4, takes the leadNoah Fifita finds Isaiah Mizell for a 94-yard touchdownArizona at Texas Tech, week 9Q2, 10:02 · Arizona 10, Texas Tech 794Ties the longest pass play of the season in the FBS94Ties the longest pass play of the season in the FBSTies the longest pass play of the season in the FBSN.Fifita pass complete deep right to I.Mizell caught at ARI46, for 94 yards to the TTU00 touchdown, 1ST DOWN, kick good▶Watch from this play- Q3, 10:02 · Texas Tech down 7, ties itThomas Castellanos runs 8 yards for a touchdownArizona at Texas Tech, week 9Q3, 10:02 · Texas Tech 17, Arizona 17Texas Tech tied the game in the third quarterTexas Tech tied the game in the third quarterT.Castellanos rush left for 8 yards gain to the ARI00 touchdown, kick good▶Watch from this play
Q1, 10:29 · Colorado tiedIsaac Wilson finds Joseph Williams for an 8-yard touchdownTexas Tech at Colorado, week 5Q1, 10:29 · Colorado 7, Texas Tech 0Colorado opened the scoringColorado opened the scoringI.Wilson pass complete short middle to J.Williams caught at TTU00, for 8 yards to the TTU00 touchdown, 1ST DOWN, kick good▶Watch from this play- Q3, 11:30 · Colorado up 4Brice Pollock intercepts Joseph WilliamsTexas Tech at Colorado, week 5Q3, 11:30 · Colorado 7, Texas Tech 33Colorado’s turnover led to a field goal3Colorado’s turnover led to a field goalColorado’s turnover led to a field goalJ.Williams pass intercepted by B.Pollock at COLO31, End Of Play. The previous play is under automatic review - "Interception". CALL UPHELD▶Watch from this play
How scary each game got
Texas Tech lost at Cincinnati after being 65% to win; the closest win was against Arizona, down to 14%
Tap a game for its score and win chances.
Each bar runs from the lowest to the highest chance our model gave Texas Tech during that game; the thick mark is where it started. Numbers are the game week.
Stat leaders
2026 stat leaders · Texas Tech
through 8 games
2026 stat leaders · Texas TechAustin Romaine leads Texas Tech with 66 tackles through 8 games.
Roster
Roster
2026+17 more
Recruiting and the portal: top commits · who's gone and who's back
How they play
Texas Tech fields a capable methodical, ball-control offense behind an elite defense, though it gives up the big play.
Percentile vs all FBS, based on this season's per-game production. Bar = where this team ranks — right is better.
Player percentiles
Texas Tech reads strongest in field position (O) (top 16%) and rushing EPA allowed (top 16%); the crux lives in explosive plays allowed, where Texas Tech sits at the 12th percentile.
Offense · strengths lead
Defense · higher bar = harder to play against
Hidden math · special situations
Home-field advantage · 2018–present · FBS opponents
Texas Tech is worth +5.3 points more at home than on the road.
Top third of FBS, 70th percentile of 133 programs
66% at home, 40% away against FBS opponents since 2018 (31-16 home, 17-26 away). Interval ±4.2.
The stadium and how the home edge is measured
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge. The books use about 3. Per-team versions were tested and did not hold up (why). Against the closing line, Texas Tech has beaten the number by +1.9 more at home than away over 99 games. That is inside the ±6.3 that many games can resolve, so the results cannot tell this stadium from the flat number. That is the honest reading of nearly every FBS stadium.
Jones AT&T Stadium seats 60,454 and has averaged 96% full (57,960, 30 games reported). Visitors cover a median 486 miles to get here since 2018 — 58th-longest of 135 FBS venues, inside the ordinary range. For the home side it is a home crowd more than a home town: only 6% of the 2026 roster (6 of 103 located players) grew up inside 100 miles of the stadium.
Edge = half the gap between average home margin and average road margin, FBS opponents only, non-neutral games since 2018; the interval is 95%. Market line: closing spread, seasons with lines on file. Trip length is straight-line miles from the visiting team's campus to the venue, measured across all 56 home games since 2018.
More in this tab
How they play
Usage splits
How the players get used
From the 2025 season's play-by-play
- Short yardageCameron Dickey converts 3rd/4th-and-short at an elite rate, and he also gets a real share of the team's goal-line carries.
- Deep threatReginald Virgil is a real deep-ball threat: a high share of his targets come on throws past the sticks, and he catches those deep shots at a plus rate.
- Money downTerrance Carter is a legitimate money-down target: his 3rd-down conversion rate ranks among the position's best, and his per-target value holds up in that spot too.
- Deep threatCaleb Douglas is a real deep-ball threat: a high share of his targets come on throws past the sticks.
- Garbage timeCaleb Douglas does not see a usage spike in garbage time: his workload holds steady regardless of score.
- CloserCameron Dickey gets less work in the fourth quarter with a lead than his overall workload would predict: not the trusted closer raw carries might suggest.
- Garbage timeCameron Dickey does not see a usage spike in garbage time: his workload holds steady regardless of score.
- Deep threatCoy Eakin is used almost exclusively underneath: a low share of his targets are downfield shots.
- CloserJ'Koby Williams gets less work in the fourth quarter with a lead than his overall workload would predict: not the trusted closer raw carries might suggest.
- Garbage timeJ'Koby Williams does not see a usage spike in garbage time: his workload holds steady regardless of score.
- Garbage timeReginald Virgil does not see a usage spike in garbage time: his workload holds steady regardless of score.
- Deep threatTerrance Carter is used almost exclusively underneath: a low share of his targets are downfield shots.
Position battles
RB room
The carries are split. The job isn’t.
J'Koby Williams and Cameron Dickey split the carries (98/160 vs 62/160) -- but the job isn't split the same way. J'Koby Williams produces in bigger chunks.
WR/TE room
The targets are split. The job isn’t.
Kenny Johnson (WR) and Terrance Carter (TE) split the targets (58/87 vs 29/87) -- but the job isn't split the same way.
Scheme claims
Team identity · competitive snaps only
How Texas Tech actually scores
50th percentile quality, 46th percentile boom-dependency. Garbage time excluded from both axes — the same correction that changes the Q4 story below.
View all FBS teams as a table
| Team | Quality percentile | Boom-share percentile |
|---|---|---|
| Air Force | 76th | 3rd |
| Akron | 9th | 90th |
| Alabama | 82nd | 22nd |
| App State | 41st | 48th |
| Arizona | 91st | 16th |
| Arizona State | 20th | 83rd |
| Arkansas | 7th | 93rd |
| Arkansas State | 60th | 32nd |
| Army | 95th | 10th |
| Auburn | 34th | 59th |
| BYU | 83rd | 17th |
| Ball State | 32nd | 72nd |
| Baylor | 36th | 63rd |
| Boise State | 96th | 4th |
| Boston College | 20th | 80th |
| Buffalo | 8th | 88th |
| Central Michigan | 6th | 96th |
| Cincinnati | 88th | 15th |
| Clemson | 10th | 92nd |
| Coastal Carolina | 49th | 57th |
| Colorado | 15th | 86th |
| Colorado State | 88th | 30th |
| Delaware | 63rd | 40th |
| Duke | 74th | 8th |
| East Carolina | 24th | 77th |
| Eastern Michigan | 14th | 80th |
| Florida | 75th | 37th |
| Florida Atlantic | 72nd | 25th |
| Florida International | 2nd | 98th |
| Florida State | 64th | 44th |
| Fresno State | 56th | 52nd |
| Georgia | 92nd | 11th |
| Georgia Southern | 52nd | 40th |
| Georgia State | 77th | 36th |
| Georgia Tech | 30th | 70th |
| Hawai'i | 12th | 88th |
| Houston | 89th | 2nd |
| Illinois | 70th | 38th |
| Indiana | 85th | 18th |
| Iowa | 52nd | 53rd |
| Iowa State | 43rd | 62nd |
| Jacksonville State | 62nd | 41st |
| James Madison | 58th | 35th |
| Kansas | 28th | 66th |
| Kansas State | 48th | 44th |
| Kennesaw State | 23rd | 79th |
| Kentucky | 71st | 21st |
| LSU | 86th | 9th |
| Liberty | 78th | 29th |
| Louisiana | 27th | 69th |
| Louisiana Tech | 60th | 47th |
| Louisville | 94th | 19th |
| Marshall | 36th | 61st |
| Maryland | 17th | 85th |
| Massachusetts | 38th | 60th |
| Memphis | 87th | 20th |
| Miami | 100th | 0th |
| Miami (OH) | 68th | 31st |
| Michigan | 25th | 71st |
| Middle Tennessee | 37th | 60th |
| Minnesota | 4th | 95th |
| Mississippi State | 35th | 65th |
| Missouri | 54th | 49th |
| Missouri State | 40th | 64th |
| NC State | 69th | 28th |
| Navy | 57th | 51st |
| Nebraska | 59th | 32nd |
| Nevada | 1st | 99th |
| New Mexico | 39th | 68th |
| North Carolina | 48th | 45th |
| North Dakota State | 31st | 64th |
| North Texas | 99th | 1st |
| Northern Illinois | 12th | 89th |
| Northwestern | 93rd | 6th |
| Notre Dame | 97th | 5th |
| Ohio | 67th | 43rd |
| Ohio State | 79th | 23rd |
| Oklahoma State | 76th | 14th |
| Ole Miss | 80th | 8th |
| Oregon | 28th | 72nd |
| Oregon State | 92nd | 13th |
| Penn State | 47th | 48th |
| Pittsburgh | 44th | 50th |
| Purdue | 65th | 34th |
| Rice | 18th | 87th |
| Rutgers | 32nd | 76th |
| SMU | 81st | 16th |
| San Diego State | 5th | 94th |
| San José State | 13th | 84th |
| South Alabama | 64th | 27th |
| South Carolina | 55th | 54th |
| South Florida | 42nd | 56th |
| Southern Miss | 3rd | 97th |
| Stanford | 53rd | 55th |
| Syracuse | 24th | 74th |
| TCU | 21st | 75th |
| Temple | 56th | 56th |
| Tennessee | 45th | 42nd |
| Texas | 11th | 91st |
| Texas A&M | 16th | 78th |
| Texas State | 90th | 12th |
| Texas Tech | 50th | 46th |
| Toledo | 84th | 24th |
| Troy | 8th | 92nd |
| Tulane | 33rd | 73rd |
| Tulsa | 68th | 28th |
| UAB | 16th | 81st |
| UCF | 19th | 82nd |
| UCLA | 61st | 36th |
| UConn | 84th | 26th |
| UNLV | 44th | 67th |
| USC | 80th | 12th |
| UTSA | 72nd | 20th |
| Utah | 96th | 7th |
| Utah State | 0th | 100th |
| Vanderbilt | 26th | 76th |
| Virginia | 51st | 39th |
| Virginia Tech | 66th | 33rd |
| Wake Forest | 98th | 4th |
| Washington | 40th | 58th |
| West Virginia | 73rd | 24th |
| Western Kentucky | 4th | 96th |
| Western Michigan | 29th | 68th |
| Wisconsin | 22nd | 84th |
| Wyoming | 46th | 52nd |
Texas Tech’s 4th-quarter offense, before and after garbage time
Raw Q4 EPA/play ranks 94th percentile in FBS. Strip out snaps taken with a blowout margin and it drops to the 83rd — the correction is the finding, not a footnote.
Standard downs vs. passing downs
Does Texas Tech hold up once the down-and-distance turns against them?
64th percentile success on standard downs, 76th on passing downs — little dropoff between the two — a schedule-independent identity.
View all FBS teams as a table
| Team | Standard-downs percentile | Passing-downs percentile |
|---|---|---|
| Air Force | 98th | 23rd |
| Akron | 58th | 34th |
| Alabama | 77th | 57th |
| App State | 33rd | 49th |
| Arizona | 76th | 94th |
| Arizona State | 38th | 61st |
| Arkansas | 71st | 24th |
| Arkansas State | 85th | 59th |
| Army | 93rd | 58th |
| Auburn | 14th | 69th |
| BYU | 86th | 35th |
| Ball State | 31st | 52nd |
| Baylor | 15th | 46th |
| Boise State | 77th | 92nd |
| Boston College | 63rd | 28th |
| Bowling Green | 43rd | 21st |
| Buffalo | 9th | 11th |
| California | 11th | 20th |
| Central Michigan | 36th | 9th |
| Charlotte | 18th | 41st |
| Cincinnati | 68th | 83rd |
| Clemson | 7th | 39th |
| Coastal Carolina | 23rd | 64th |
| Colorado | 16th | 65th |
| Colorado State | 66th | 95th |
| Delaware | 59th | 64th |
| Duke | 21st | 67th |
| East Carolina | 37th | 19th |
| Eastern Michigan | 16th | 30th |
| Florida | 61st | 70th |
| Florida Atlantic | 67th | 87th |
| Florida International | 20th | 53rd |
| Florida State | 30th | 90th |
| Fresno State | 25th | 84th |
| Gardner-Webb | 5th | 23rd |
| Georgia | 98th | 89th |
| Georgia Southern | 60th | 71st |
| Georgia State | 68th | 66th |
| Georgia Tech | 53rd | 40th |
| Hawai'i | 48th | 29th |
| Houston | 87th | 99th |
| Illinois | 73rd | 91st |
| Indiana | 55th | 44th |
| Iowa | 79th | 13th |
| Iowa State | 18th | 31st |
| Jacksonville State | 82nd | 80th |
| James Madison | 45th | 77th |
| Kansas | 52nd | 18th |
| Kansas State | 64th | 68th |
| Kennesaw State | 61st | 16th |
| Kent State | 5th | 21st |
| Kentucky | 90th | 51st |
| LSU | 86th | 98th |
| Liberty | 93rd | 78th |
| Louisiana | 36th | 66th |
| Louisiana Tech | 26th | 79th |
| Louisville | 95th | 72nd |
| Maine | 0th | 86th |
| Marshall | 69th | 32nd |
| Maryland | 34th | 26th |
| Massachusetts | 35th | 38th |
| Memphis | 92nd | 93rd |
| Mercyhurst | 2nd | 34th |
| Miami | 99th | 95th |
| Miami (OH) | 50th | 43rd |
| Michigan | 10th | 89th |
| Michigan State | 23rd | 55th |
| Middle Tennessee | 27th | 64th |
| Minnesota | 32nd | 4th |
| Mississippi State | 66th | 59th |
| Missouri | 34th | 41st |
| Missouri State | 52nd | 30th |
| NC State | 62nd | 77th |
| Navy | 89th | 17th |
| Nebraska | 46th | 85th |
| Nevada | 28th | 27th |
| New Mexico | 55th | 48th |
| New Mexico State | 14th | 36th |
| Norfolk State | 7th | 0th |
| North Carolina | 89th | 73rd |
| North Dakota State | 30th | 45th |
| North Texas | 95th | 84th |
| Northern Illinois | 51st | 14th |
| Northwestern | 88th | 88th |
| Notre Dame | 100th | 43rd |
| Ohio | 82nd | 42nd |
| Ohio State | 84th | 80th |
| Oklahoma | 4th | 50th |
| Oklahoma State | 96th | 86th |
| Old Dominion | 1st | 36th |
| Ole Miss | 81st | 94th |
| Oregon | 39th | 26th |
| Oregon State | 97th | 70th |
| Penn State | 20th | 47th |
| Pittsburgh | 65th | 50th |
| Purdue | 57th | 82nd |
| Rice | 59th | 14th |
| Robert Morris | 2nd | 5th |
| Rutgers | 42nd | 81st |
| SMU | 91st | 82nd |
| Sacramento State | 13th | 6th |
| Sam Houston | 11th | 37th |
| San Diego State | 8th | 54th |
| San José State | 17th | 2nd |
| South Alabama | 44th | 74th |
| South Carolina | 70th | 56th |
| South Florida | 84th | 57th |
| Southern Miss | 48th | 7th |
| Stanford | 40th | 9th |
| Syracuse | 57th | 39th |
| TCU | 70th | 10th |
| Temple | 50th | 68th |
| Tennessee | 75th | 12th |
| Texas | 27th | 61st |
| Texas A&M | 46th | 55th |
| Texas State | 74th | 100th |
| Texas Tech | 64th | 76th |
| Toledo | 73rd | 52nd |
| Troy | 39th | 15th |
| Tulane | 12th | 8th |
| Tulsa | 49th | 7th |
| UAB | 24th | 62nd |
| UCF | 29th | 45th |
| UCLA | 80th | 60th |
| UConn | 72nd | 73rd |
| UL Monroe | 47th | 11th |
| UNLV | 41st | 19th |
| USC | 79th | 97th |
| UT Martin | 6th | 3rd |
| UTEP | 9th | 1st |
| UTSA | 91st | 33rd |
| Utah | 94th | 98th |
| Utah State | 3rd | 76th |
| Vanderbilt | 41st | 32nd |
| Virginia | 83rd | 2nd |
| Virginia Tech | 43rd | 91st |
| Wake Forest | 75th | 96th |
| Washington | 56th | 16th |
| Washington State | 19th | 5th |
| West Virginia | 54th | 75th |
| Western Kentucky | 22nd | 25th |
| Western Michigan | 32nd | 27th |
| Wisconsin | 25th | 22nd |
| Wyoming | 78th | 48th |
Texas Tech by half
1st-half offense ranks 30th percentile in FBS; 2nd-half, 74th — competitive snaps only, garbage time excluded from both halves.
How much of Texas Tech’s number is the schedule?
Raw EPA/play through week 10 is 0.17; 59th percentile once opponent strength is stripped out, it's 0.05. The widest gap came in week 2: 0.28 raw vs. 0.02 adjusted.
Tendency drift
How Texas Tech’s current staff calls plays, year over year
Pass defense by zone
What this team throws, and gives up, by depth.
On short throws (≤19 air yards), Texas Tech’s passing game completes a completion rate above the FBS mean (69.5% vs 67.0% league-wide, shrunk toward the mean for its 192-play sample) — mid-pack, 108 of 136 qualifying offenses.
On short throws (≤19 air yards), Texas Tech’s defense allows a completion rate above the FBS mean (67.6% vs 66.3% league-wide, shrunk toward the mean for its 259-play sample) — mid-pack, 97 of 137 qualifying defenses.
We won’t show a deep-ball (20+ air yards) leaderboard here, on either side of the ball: even a full season of charted plays gives most teams well under 30 deep attempts — too thin to tell a real tendency from noise, so we won’t guess. Same refusal for yards-after-catch allowed and where a team’s attempts land by zone: both measured and both came back statistically indistinguishable from season-to-season noise.
Havoc & trenches
Disruption, run-blocking, and down-and-distance efficiency.
Turnover luck
The bounces have gone their way on their own fumbles: 57% recovered, vs. ~52% expected.
8 of 14 own fumbles recovered themselves, 2026 only.
Takeaways
Cashing in more than most: 31% of disrupted passes intercepted, vs. ~18% league-wide.
13 interceptions of 42 disrupted passes (29 deflected, 13 intercepted), 2026 only.
Penalties
The flags haven't favored them: 51 penalties committed vs. 49 drawn on opponents, 33 yards behind.
451 penalty yards committed vs. 418 drawn on opponents, 2026 season total.
Ratings and comparisons
Ratings
Comparable teams
Most similar programs · Texas Tech
Most similar programs · Texas TechReads like
Matched on how the programs are built — tier, prestige band, kind of fanbase, conference, voice and roster size — not on this season's stats. A calibration, not a prediction.
Historical echo
Texas Tech’s breakout has happened before — and 4 of the 4 closest programs couldn’t hold it.
Programs whose stature climbed in the same shape. The grey line is their run; the color is what came next for them.
An analogy on the shape of a program’s Zeitgeist stature arc — not a prediction. Interim calibration; matched among current FBS programs at a comparable level.
Weather
Jones AT&T Stadium, Lubbock, TX
Usual during the game around Nov 7: 60°, between 46° and 72° in about 7 in 10 games (33 games since 2016).
Road games since 2016: the middle game was 62°, and 8 in 10 ran between 42° and 81° (50 road games).
What a usual Saturday feels like here, by kickoff time
Airport readings near each stadium during the game, not on the field. How we measure
Weather observations: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet at Iowa State University. Rain: NOAA MRMS radar and CoCoRaHS volunteer gauges (CC BY 4.0). Game data: CollegeFootballData.com.