Miami 33-20 Wake Forest (Sep 18, 2026) Final Score

Team pages: Miami · Wake Forest

No. 5 Miami3-033

Wake Forest2-120Final

Fri, Sep 18 · Allegacy Federal Credit Union Stadium, Winston-Salem, N.C. · Crowd 32,147

No. 5 Miami beat Wake Forest 33-20.

We had Miami favored. It won.

Next: Miami beat Central Michigan 52-3, Sat Sep 26

Next: Wake Forest beat Louisville 30-27, Sat Sep 26

Top comment in the game thread

I hate Dawson play calling when leading in the second half

Q4 4:29 · r/CFB game thread · Fri, Sep 18

How it swung

Before kickoff, our ratings gave Miami an 82% chance, and the closing betting line (Miami was a 20.5-point favorite) put it at 95%.

Favored the whole way: Miami never fell below 85%.

Wake Forest never had better than a 15% chance.

Safety

Miami · Q4 13:11Blocked field goalQ4 4:23

FinalMiami 33-20 Wake ForestMiami wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.

No single play moved the chance by 20 points.

What fans said, play by play

The line in bold above each quote is written by our model from the thread’s comments and the play-by-play.

Q1 1:22Gio Lopez throws touchdown pass to K Johnson, tying game 7-7To the surprise of no one, Gio Lopez wasn’t the problem. It was the Freddie Kitchens led Tar Heel offenser/CFB game thread
Q4 7:14Fans rage at holding penalty on Hernandez punt returnIt feels like any time Hernandez touches the ball there’s a flag lolr/CFB game thread
Q4 4:29Miami fans rip Dawson's decision to attempt a blocked field goalQuoted at the top of the page.Kuddos to that kid in the t shirt for standing in the exact right spot to block the view lolr/CFB game thread
Q4 3:58Fans praise Hernandez and criticize poor replay angles during Wake Forest driveHernandez is a dogr/CFB game threadIt’s crazy to me that every other conference hasn’t adopted this transparent replay review systemr/CFB game thread

Miami’s chance to win after every play.

How to read this chart

Starts from the pregame line (Miami -20.5), at 88% for Miami (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. Outlined diamonds mark rare plays. Under the scores, r/CFB comments per minute from fans with a Wake Forest or Miami flair (170 and 1,056); both sides share one scale, regulation only. A gold diamond marks a play fans were reacting to.

Watch the plays

The bar and the arrow show Miami’s chance to win after each play; the logo is the team the play helped.

Every drive

Miami scored on 5 of its 12 drives; Wake Forest on 3 of its 11.

Miami’s drives are teal, Wake Forest’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.

“Show a replay on the holds espn. FFS”

A fan of another team

How fans reacted

Quiet

The loudest stretch came in the fourth quarter.

Jump to the loudest stretch

The jump was quiet; the crowd was busy.

What it cost

Miami’s chance to make the playoff rose from 63% to 67%.

Make the playoff

Miami · won63% → ▲67%

Wake Forest · lost2% → ▼1%

Win the conference

Miami · won52% → ▲56%

Wake Forest · lost1% → 1%

Before the game (September 17, 2026) → after this result, in our model.

Box score

Miami 33, Wake Forest 20

Wake Forest covered +20.5 by 7.5. The total, 53, stayed under 55.5.

Team totals	Miami	Wake Forest
Total yards	378	334
Passing	30 of 34, 220 yds	29 of 46, 312 yds
Rushing	34 for 158 yds	16 for 22 yds
First downs	23	20
Third down	5 of 13	4 of 12
Fourth down	0 of 0	1 of 3
Turnovers	0	1
Penalties	7 for 75 yds	13 for 122 yds
Time of possession	33:24	26:36

Miami leaders

Passing Darian Mensah 30 of 34, 220 yds, 3 TD
Rushing Mark Fletcher Jr. 16 for 85 yds, 1 TD; CharMar Brown 2 for 35 yds
Receiving Malachi Toney 12 for 114 yds, 1 TD; Elija Lofton 5 for 39 yds, 1 TD

Wake Forest leaders

Passing Giovanni Lopez 29 of 46, 312 yds, 3 TD, 1 INT
Rushing Deuce Lawrence 6 for 27 yds; Ty Clark III 3 for 3 yds
Receiving Jack Foley 6 for 118 yds, 1 TD; Carlos Hernandez 10 for 69 yds, 1 TD

No rain through the game

73° at kickoff · no rain recorded

September game-day temperatures at Allegacy Federal Credit Union Stadium

Drag along the chart, or step through the game.

First quarter, 14:46 left7:37 p.m.

Miami 0, Wake Forest 0 · Wake Forest 12% to win

no rain · 73°

Mensah 11-yd pass to Toney

Where this weather comes from

Measured at Winston-salem/smith_(asos) airport, 1.8 miles away. Rain is NOAA's radar-and-gauge estimate at the stadium and wind is an airport reading; neither is measured on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet; rain radar from NOAA MRMS, through Iowa State University. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.

Before kickoff

Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.

Recent games

Last two games

Miami · 2-0

Rated 10th in our preseason ratings, 7th now.

Two straight wins — but still hunting a ranked opponent.

W 77-7 vs Florida A&M #216 of 668

won by 70 as a 59.5-point favorite

W 45-6 @ Stanford #93 of 668

won by 39 as a 24.5-point favorite

Last two games

Wake Forest · 2-0

Rated 81st in our preseason ratings, 80th now.

Two straight wins — but still hunting a ranked opponent.

W 38-36 @ Purdue #118 of 668

won by 2 as a 2.5-point favorite

W 38-16 vs Akron #60 of 668

won by 22 as a 27.5-point favorite

Week by week

Wake Forest

Wk 1Wvs Akron38-16
Wk 2Wat Purdue38-36

Miami

Wk 1Wat Stanford45-6
Wk 2Wvs Florida A&M77-7

Power rating by week

Miami is rated 11.9 points ahead as of week 2. Our power rating by week; higher is better.

Matchups

Biggest mismatch: Miami’s success rate against Wake Forest, 63 points

Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.

Miami’s success rate against Wake Forest’s defense
Miami offense, 99th percentile · Wake Forest defense, 36th
Miami’s passing EPA against Wake Forest’s defense
Miami offense, 100th percentile · Wake Forest defense, 67th
Miami’s explosive plays against Wake Forest’s defense
Miami offense, 68th percentile · Wake Forest defense, 96th

Season profile, all the rows

Season profile

MiamiWake Forest

EPA/play, offense

EPA/play, defense

Success rate, offense

Success rate, defense

Explosive-play rate, offense

Explosive-play rate, defense

Rush EPA, offense

Rush EPA, defense

Pass EPA, offense

Pass EPA, defense

The series

Miami leads the series 9-3

12 meetings since 1928 · Miami has won the last 8

2024Miami 42-14
2013Miami 24-21
2009Miami 28-27
2008Miami 16-10
2005Miami 47-17

Each line is Wake Forest’s chance to win through that meeting. Older meetings have no play by play, so no line.

Line, fans and home field

The betting line, and the fans

Wake Forest fans are in a better mood than Miami fans (80th vs 45th among FBS fanbases), even with Miami favored.

Miami favored by 20.5 · Total 55.5

How games like this usually go

Miami by 20.5: the game against the usual path

Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game

The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 251 games since 2025 with a favorite of 14.5 to 21.5 points.

The market

The spread moved 1 point toward Miami.

The total rose 5 points.

The books’ cut: 4.1%, the margin built into the odds

Home field

Wake Forest is worth +1.1 points (±4.3) more at home than on the road since 2018 — bottom tenth of FBS, 8th percentile.

54% at home, 53% on the road against FBS opponents (25-21 home, 24-21 away).

Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads -1.4 at home vs. away over 98 games — inside the ±6.3 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.

Night kickoff — historically worth about half a point more to the home side against the number, and not much more than that. The visitors travel about 703 miles to get here.

The story going in

Miami to sign $200M Nike dealSep 17, 2026

Where next

Conference standings

Place in the conference, then conference record.

Wake Forest7th0-0
Miami3rd1-0

Full ACC standings

No. 5 Miami beats Wake Forest 33-20