Virginia 28-25 Syracuse (Oct 10, 2026) Final Score

Team pages: Syracuse · Virginia

Syracuse2-325

Virginia4-228Final

Sat, Oct 10 · Scott Stadium, Charlottesville, Va. · Crowd 39,661

Virginia beat Syracuse 28-25.

We had Virginia favored. It won.

Next: Syracuse lost to Louisville 34-26, Sat Oct 17

Next: Virginia lost to SMU 23-13, Sat Oct 17

Top comment in the game thread

Well, the long snapper is Fran Jr so he’s not going to be admonished

Q4 9:18 · r/CFB game thread · Sat, Oct 10

How it swung

Before kickoff, our ratings gave Virginia a 74% chance, and the closing betting line (Virginia was a 14-point favorite) put it at 87%.

Virginia came back from 10 down, at one point just a 27% chance in the third quarter.

Syracuse led by 10, was as high as 73% in the third quarter, and still lost.

TargetingQ4 12:4821 unanswered

Virginia · Q4 11:42

FinalVirginia 28-25 SyracuseVirginia wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.

The two plays that swung it

1Q2 8:52Pribula sacked for a 12-yd lossVirginia 72% → 61% (−11)
2Q3 2:01Pribula 43-yd TD pass to Martin, cuts it to 17-14Virginia 78% → 65% (−13)

The two plays that swung it

1Q2 8:52Pribula sacked for a 12-yd lossSyracuse 28% → 39% (+11)
2Q3 2:01Pribula 43-yd TD pass to Martin, cuts it to 17-14Syracuse 22% → 35% (+13)

What fans said, play by play

The line in bold above each quote is written by our model from the thread’s comments and the play-by-play.

Q4 12:48Syracuse fans argue a targeting call on Middlebrook's run is wrongI like that you can hear the incompetence of the refs.r/CFB game threadSyracuse 17 Virginia 14 Refs 7r/CFB game thread
Q4 9:18Syracuse punter gets low snap, turning ball over on downs as fans blame Fran Brown JrFran jr sucks just as much as his dad. Terrible long snapper.r/CFB game threadQuoted at the top of the page.
Q4 5:55Syracuse fans demand Fran Brown's firing after Virginia scores a touchdownFran Brown has to fire Nixon going into the off-season. If next year is going to be his make or break year, I'm doing what I need to, in order to succeed. His play calling has…r/CFB game threadFran needs to be gone ASAP. Dino didn’t even suck this muchr/CFB game thread
Q4 1:52Syracuse fans fire Fran Brown after receiver runs sideline post-tackleWouldn't be the first time an opponent held onto a coach for beating Cuse and thinking it was a step forward.r/CFB game thread4th string qb throwing up meatball subsr/CFB game thread

Virginia’s chance to win after every play.

How to read this chart

Starts from the pregame line (Virginia -14), at 88% for Virginia (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. Outlined diamonds mark rare plays. Under the scores, r/CFB comments per minute from fans with a Virginia or Syracuse flair (237 and 219); both sides share one scale, regulation only.

Watch the plays

The bar and the arrow show Virginia’s chance to win after each play; the logo is the team the play helped.

Every drive

Virginia scored on 4 of its 12 drives; Syracuse on 4 of its 11.

Virginia’s drives are teal, Syracuse’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.

From Syracuse’s side

Syracuse’s best moment: Pribula 43-yd TD pass to Martin, cuts it to 17-14 (Q3 2:01). It lifted Syracuse’s win chance by 13 points.

How Syracuse fans took it: “What a great win for Virginia???? Not sure if we watched the same game at all” r/CFB game thread

“What is the song the band is playing? It seems familiar, bur I haven't heard it in so long?”

A Virginia fan

When fans got loud

Busy

Fans were loudest in the fourth quarter.

Jump to the loudest stretch

The jump was busy; the crowd was quiet.

What it cost

Virginia’s chance to make the playoff rose from 1% to 2%.

Make the playoff

Syracuse · lost0% → 0%

Virginia · won1% → ▲2%

Win the conference

Syracuse · lost0% → 0%

Virginia · won1% → ▲2%

Before the game (October 9, 2026) → after this result, in our model.

Box score

Virginia 28, Syracuse 25

Syracuse covered +14 by 11. The total, 53, went over 49.5.

Team totals	Syracuse	Virginia
Total yards	430	288
Passing	18 of 35, 267 yds	11 of 20, 119 yds
Rushing	47 for 163 yds	35 for 169 yds
First downs	25	18
Third down	5 of 15	3 of 10
Fourth down	2 of 4	1 of 1
Turnovers	0	0
Penalties	9 for 65 yds	5 for 65 yds
Time of possession	35:07	24:53

Syracuse leaders

Passing Malachi Nelson 16 of 29, 217 yds, 1 TD
Rushing Tylik Hill 23 for 118 yds; Ju'Juan Johnson 10 for 35 yds
Receiving Umari Hatcher 8 for 126 yds, 1 TD; Daunte Bacheyie 4 for 97 yds, 1 TD

Virginia leaders

Passing Beau Pribula 11 of 19, 119 yds, 1 TD
Rushing Jekail Middlebrook 17 for 95 yds, 2 TD; Xay Davis 6 for 39 yds, 1 TD
Receiving Dashawn Martin 2 for 48 yds, 1 TD; Kameron Courtney 3 for 38 yds

No rain and calm

63° at kickoff · no rain recorded · wind 10 mph from the northeast, mostly across the field, gusts to 16

The usual here around this date is 67°, with about 7 in 10 games between 56° and 78°.

October game-day temperatures at Scott Stadium

Drag along the chart, or step through the game.

Third quarter, 2:01 left10:01 p.m.

Syracuse 17, Virginia 14 · Virginia 65% to win

no rain · wind 10 mph from the northeast, mostly across the field · 63°

Pribula 43-yd TD pass to Martin, cuts it to 17-14

Measured at Charlottesville airport, 8.1 miles away. Wind and rain are airport readings near the stadium, not on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.

Before kickoff

Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.

Recent games

Last 4 games

Syracuse · 2-2

Rated 143rd in our preseason ratings, 118th now, up 25 spots.

2-2 in its last 4 — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.

W 42-41 @ UConn #108 of 668

won by 1 as a 6.5-point favorite

L 13-27 @ PittsburghTop 25 #51 of 668

lost by 14 as a 10.5-point underdog

L 18-21 vs California #73 of 668

lost by 3 as a 4-point favorite

W 66-3 vs New Hampshire #197 of 668

won by 63 as a 35.5-point favorite

Last three games

Virginia · 3-2

Rated 56th in our preseason ratings, 53rd now.

1-2 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.

L 7-38 @ Florida State #59 of 668

lost by 31 as a 1.5-point favorite

W 42-3 vs Delaware #61 of 668

won by 39 as a 19.5-point favorite

L 27-38 vs West Virginia #137 of 668

lost by 11 as a 10.5-point favorite

W 59-3 vs Norfolk State #225 of 668

won by 56 as a 47.5-point favorite

W 34-8 vs NC State #46 of 668

won by 26 as a 4-point favorite

Week by week

Virginia

Wk 1Wvs NC State34-8
Wk 2Wvs Norfolk State59-3
Wk 3Lvs West Virginia27-38
Wk 4Wvs Delaware42-3
Wk 5Lat Florida State7-38

Syracuse

Wk 1Wvs New Hampshire66-3
Wk 2Lvs California18-21
Wk 3Lat Pittsburgh13-27
Wk 5Wat UConn42-41

Power rating by week

Virginia is rated 6.0 points ahead as of week 5. Our power rating by week; higher is better.

Matchups

Biggest mismatch: Syracuse’s EPA/play against Virginia, 45 points

Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.

Syracuse’s EPA/play against Virginia’s defense
Syracuse offense, 24th percentile · Virginia defense, 69th
Virginia’s explosive plays against Syracuse’s defense
Virginia offense, 10th percentile · Syracuse defense, 51st
Syracuse’s passing EPA against Virginia’s defense
Syracuse offense, 32nd percentile · Virginia defense, 62nd

Season profile, all the rows

Season profile

SyracuseVirginia

EPA/play, offense

EPA/play, defense

Success rate, offense

Success rate, defense

Explosive-play rate, offense

Explosive-play rate, defense

Rush EPA, offense

Rush EPA, defense

Pass EPA, offense

Pass EPA, defense

The series

The series is tied 3-3

6 meetings since 1975 · Syracuse won the last meeting

2022Syracuse 22-20
2015Virginia 44-38
2005Virginia 27-24
2004Virginia 31-10
1977Syracuse 6-3

Each line is Virginia’s chance to win through that meeting. Virginia is 1-1 in the meetings since 2018 that were still close in the fourth quarter. Older meetings have no play by play, so no line.

Line, fans and home field

The betting line, and the fans

Virginia fans are feeling it less than most fanbases this week (26th among FBS fanbases), and the other side is no happier.

Virginia favored by 14 · Total 49.5

How games like this usually go

Virginia by 14, and it went to form

Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game

The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 385 games since 2025 with a favorite of 7.5 to 14.5 points.

The market

The spread moved 4.5 points toward Virginia.

The total fell 1 point.

The books’ cut: 4.2%, the margin built into the odds

Home field

Virginia is worth +5.1 points (±3.4) more at home than on the road since 2018 — middle of FBS, 66th percentile.

62% at home, 34% on the road against FBS opponents (29-18 home, 14-27 away).

Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +0.1 at home vs. away over 96 games — inside the ±5.7 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.

Night kickoff — historically worth about half a point more to the home side against the number, and not much more than that. The visitors travel about 368 miles to get here.

Last meeting in our History pages

Virginia 44, Syracuse 38Oct 17, 2015

Where next

Conference standings

Place in the conference, then conference record.

Virginia11th1-1
Syracuse16th0-2

Full ACC standings

Virginia beats Syracuse 28-25