Presbyterian routs St. Thomas (MN) 55-21

Team pages: St. Thomas (MN) · Presbyterian

St. Thomas (MN)4-221
Presbyterian2-355Final
Sat, Oct 3 · Bailey Memorial Stadium, Clinton, S.C. · Crowd 1,741ESPN+

Presbyterian routed St. Thomas (MN) 55-21.

Winners have been down to 3% or less in about 1 of every 40 games since 2018.

Next: St. Thomas (MN) beat Stetson 64-21, Sat Oct 10

Next: Presbyterian beat Davidson 38-21, Sat Oct 10

How it swung

The turning point: Sharpe 5-yd TD pass to Abercrombie, blocked, Presbyterian leads 20-0 (Q2, 11:09). Presbyterian went from 36% to 80% to win.

Before kickoff, our ratings gave Presbyterian a 22% chance, and the closing betting line (Presbyterian was a 28.5-point underdog) put it at 1%.

FinalPresbyterian 55-21 St. Thomas (MN)Presbyterian wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.
50%10%25%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q4PresbyterianSt. ThomasLowest 3%Won55-2112+20+44Scores
50%10%25%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q4PresbyterianSt. ThomasLowest 3%Won55-2112Scores
50%10%25%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q4St. ThomasPresbyterianLowest 0%High 97%Lost21-5512−20−44Scores
50%10%25%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q4St. ThomasPresbyterianLowest 0%High 97%Lost21-5512Scores

The five plays that swung it

  1. 1Q1 2:36Burleson 5-yd TD run, two-point try goodPresbyterian 7% → 27% (+20)
  2. 2Q2 11:09Sharpe 5-yd TD pass to Abercrombie, blocked, Presbyterian leads 20-0Presbyterian 36% → 80% (+44)
  3. 3Q2 3:16InterceptionPeipert intercepted by Freese at the Presbyterian 37, returned 16 yardsPresbyterian 65% → 87% (+22)
  4. 4Q2 2:20Policare incomplete to SchulerPresbyterian 70% → 90% (+20)
  5. 5Q3 15:00Sharpe 42-yd pass to JohnsonPresbyterian 71% → 99% (+28)

The five plays that swung it

  1. 1Q1 2:36Burleson 5-yd TD run, two-point try goodSt. Thomas (MN) 93% → 73% (−20)
  2. 2Q2 11:09Sharpe 5-yd TD pass to Abercrombie, blocked, Presbyterian leads 20-0St. Thomas (MN) 64% → 20% (−44)
  3. 3Q2 3:16InterceptionPeipert intercepted by Freese at the Presbyterian 37, returned 16 yardsSt. Thomas (MN) 35% → 13% (−22)
  4. 4Q2 2:20Policare incomplete to SchulerSt. Thomas (MN) 30% → 10% (−20)
  5. 5Q3 15:00Sharpe 42-yd pass to JohnsonSt. Thomas (MN) 29% → 1% (−28)
Presbyterian’s chance to win after every play.
How to read this chartStarts from the pregame line (St. Thomas (MN) -28.5), at 5% for Presbyterian (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores.

Every drive

Presbyterian scored on 8 of its 15 drives; St. Thomas (MN) on 3 of its 14.

Presbyterian’s drives are teal, St. Thomas (MN)’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.

own goalgoal lineQ1St. Thomas (MN): Fumble, from 71 yards out to 23FumblePresbyterian: Touchdown, from 77 yards out to 0TouchdownSt. Thomas (MN): Punt, from 65 yards out to 69PuntPresbyterian: Punt, from 85 yards out to 63PuntSt. Thomas (MN): Interception, from 86 yards out to 43InterceptionPresbyterian: Touchdown, from 72 yards out to 0TouchdownSt. Thomas (MN): Punt, from 45 yards out to 42PuntPresbyterian: Fumble, from 80 yards out to 80FumbleSt. Thomas (MN): Interception, from 20 yards out to 6InterceptionQ2Presbyterian: Touchdown, from 59 yards out to 0TouchdownSt. Thomas (MN): Punt, from 84 yards out to 70PuntPresbyterian: Punt, from 55 yards out to 53PuntSt. Thomas (MN): Interception, from 45 yards out to 22InterceptionPresbyterian: Touchdown, from 47 yards out to 0TouchdownSt. Thomas (MN): Touchdown, from 84 yards out to 0TouchdownPresbyterian: End of half, from 80 yards out to 78End of halfQ3Presbyterian: Touchdown, from 75 yards out to 0TouchdownSt. Thomas (MN): Touchdown, from 45 yards out to 0TouchdownPresbyterian: Touchdown, from 75 yards out to 0TouchdownSt. Thomas (MN): Touchdown, from 68 yards out to 0TouchdownPresbyterian: Turned over on downs, from 75 yards out to 38DownsQ4St. Thomas (MN): Turned over on downs, from 62 yards out to 55DownsPresbyterian: Interception, from 45 yards out to 46InterceptionSt. Thomas (MN): Turned over on downs, from 60 yards out to 26DownsPresbyterian: Touchdown, from 74 yards out to 0TouchdownSt. Thomas (MN): Fumble, from 75 yards out to 68FumblePresbyterian: Touchdown, from 32 yards out to 0TouchdownSt. Thomas (MN): Turned over on downs, from 75 yards out to 21DownsPresbyterian: End of game, from 79 yards out to 83End of game

From St. Thomas (MN)’s side

St. Thomas (MN)’s best moment: Sharpe 10-yd TD pass to Johnson, Presbyterian leads 34-7 (Q3 11:31). It lifted St. Thomas (MN)’s win chance by 23 points.

The winner fell to 3%.

Box score

Presbyterian 55, St. Thomas (MN) 21

Presbyterian covered +28.5 by 62.5. The total, 76, went over 61.5.

St. Thomas (MN) leaders

  • Passing Anthony Policare 11 of 24, 148 yds, 2 TD
  • Rushing Anthony Policare 12 for 60 yds; Joseph Koch 6 for 51 yds
  • Receiving Pierce McCrary 6 for 117 yds, 1 TD; Quentin Cobb-Butler 7 for 48 yds, 1 TD

Presbyterian leaders

  • Passing Landon Sharpe 18 of 30, 358 yds, 5 TD, 1 INT
  • Rushing Landon Sharpe 12 for 84 yds, 1 TD; Damion Moate 17 for 75 yds, 1 TD
  • Receiving Brice Johnson 3 for 125 yds, 2 TD; Ethan Medley 3 for 60 yds

Before kickoff

Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.

Recent games

Last three games

St. Thomas (MN) · 4-1

Rated 159th in our preseason ratings, 178th now.

Three straight wins, including a 2-point win over Southern Utah as a 12.5-point underdog.

W 50-17 vs San Diego #193 of 668

won by 33 as a 5.5-point favorite

St. Thomas (MN) won 50-17 vs San Diego. Chance to win started at 76%, low 76%, high better than 99%.

W 28-26 vs Southern Utah #161 of 668

won by 2 as a 12.5-point underdog

W 56-14 vs Northern Michigan #401 of 668

St. Thomas (MN) won 56-14 vs Northern Michigan. Chance to win started at 62%, low 60%, high better than 99%.

L 26-62 @ North Dakota #111 of 668

lost by 36 as a 28.5-point underdog

St. Thomas (MN) lost 26-62 at North Dakota. Chance to win started at 2%, low under 1%, high 2%.

W 15-9 vs Winona State #324 of 668

St. Thomas (MN) won 15-9 vs Winona State. Chance to win started at 57%, low 35%, high 94%.

Last 4 games

Presbyterian · 1-3

Rated 156th in our preseason ratings, 246th now.

1-3 in its last 4 — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.

L 7-42 @ Marist #198 of 668

lost by 35 as an 8.5-point underdog

Presbyterian lost 7-42 at Marist. Chance to win started at 20%, low under 1%, high 20%.

L 14-58 @ Western Carolina #187 of 668

lost by 44 as a 33.5-point underdog

Presbyterian lost 14-58 at Western Carolina. Chance to win started at 2%, low under 1%, high 2%.

L 3-62 @ Mercer #165 of 668

lost by 59 as a 22.5-point underdog

Presbyterian lost 3-62 at Mercer. Chance to win started at 5%, low under 1%, high 5%.

W 47-37 vs UVA Wise #379 of 668

Presbyterian won 47-37 vs UVA Wise. Chance to win started at 48%, low 35%, high better than 99%.

Week by week

Presbyterian

Wk 1: W 47-37 vs UVA Wise▲10UVA WiseWk 1: L 3-62 at Mercer▼59MercerWk 3: L 14-58 at Western Carolina▼44W. CarolinaWk 4: L 7-42 at Marist▼35Marist
  • Wk 1Wvs UVA Wise47-37
  • Wk 1Lat Mercer3-62
  • Wk 3Lat Western Carolina14-58
  • Wk 4Lat Marist7-42

St. Thomas (MN)

Wk 1: W 15-9 vs Winona State▲6Winona S…Wk 1: L 26-62 at North Dakota▼36N. DakotaWk 2: W 56-14 vs Northern Michigan▲42N. Michi…Wk 3: W 28-26 vs Southern Utah▲2S. UtahWk 4: W 50-17 vs San Diego▲33San Diego
  • Wk 1Wvs Winona State15-9
  • Wk 1Lat North Dakota26-62
  • Wk 2Wvs Northern Michigan56-14
  • Wk 3Wvs Southern Utah28-26
  • Wk 4Wvs San Diego50-17

Power rating by week

St. Thomas (MN) is rated 3.4 points ahead as of week 4. Our power rating by week; higher is better.

-7-9-11Wk 0Wk 2Wk 4PresbyterianSt. Thomas (MN)

The series

St. Thomas (MN) leads the series 2-1

3 meetings since 2021 · Presbyterian won the last meeting

  • 2025Presbyterian 23-9
  • 2022St. Thomas (MN) 46-17
  • 2021St. Thomas (MN) 54-15

Line, fans and home field

The betting line, and the fans

Our model and the betting line don’t fully agree on Presbyterian’s chances here.

50-50Model · 22%Line · 1%St. Thomas (MN)Presbyterian

St. Thomas (MN) favored by 28.5 · Total 61.5

How games like this usually go

St. Thomas (MN) by 28.5, on the usual path until Q1 12:09

50%90%Q1Q2Q3Q450%90%Q1Q2Q3Q4

Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game

The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 411 games since 2025 with a favorite of 21.5 points or more.

The market

The spread moved 4 points toward St. Thomas (MN).

opened +24.5now +28.5

The total rose 7 points.

opened 54.5now 61.5

Spread: +24.5 → +28.5 · Total: 54.5 → 61.5

The books’ cut: 5.3%, the margin built into the odds

Where next

Conference standings

Place in the conference, then conference record.