Presbyterian beats Davidson 38-21

Team pages: Davidson · Presbyterian

Davidson2-521
Presbyterian3-338Final
Sat, Oct 10 · Bailey Memorial Stadium, Clinton, S.C. · Crowd 1,341ESPN+

Presbyterian beat Davidson 38-21.

We had Presbyterian favored. It won.

Next: Davidson beat Morehead State 34-31, Sat Oct 17

Next: Presbyterian beat Stetson 47-43, Sat Oct 17

How it swung

Before kickoff, our ratings gave Presbyterian an 89% chance, and the closing betting line (Presbyterian was a 14.5-point favorite) put it at 88%.

Favored the whole way: Presbyterian never fell below 53%.

Davidson led by 14 but, as a 14.5-point underdog, never had better than a 47% chance.

32 unansweredPresbyterian · Q2 12:49
FinalPresbyterian 38-21 DavidsonPresbyterian wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.
50%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q4PresbyterianWon38-2112−11+11Scores32 unanswered
50%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q4PresbyterianWon38-2112Scores32 unanswered
50%10%25%Q1Q2Q3Q4PresbyterianLowest 0%Lost21-3812+11−11Scores32 unanswered
50%10%25%Q1Q2Q3Q4PresbyterianLowest 0%Lost21-3812Scores32 unanswered

The two plays that swung it

  1. 1Q1 13:36Bullock 14-yd TD run, Davidson goes ahead 7-0Presbyterian 83% → 72% (−11)
  2. 2Q1 7:18InterceptionBullock intercepted by Largin at the Presbyterian 47Presbyterian 62% → 73% (+11)

The two plays that swung it

  1. 1Q1 13:36Bullock 14-yd TD run, Davidson goes ahead 7-0Davidson 17% → 28% (+11)
  2. 2Q1 7:18InterceptionBullock intercepted by Largin at the Presbyterian 47Davidson 38% → 27% (−11)
Presbyterian’s chance to win after every play.
How to read this chartStarts from the pregame line (Presbyterian -14.5), at 83% for Presbyterian (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. Outlined diamonds mark rare plays.

Every drive

Presbyterian scored on 6 of its 11 drives; Davidson on 3 of its 12.

Presbyterian’s drives are teal, Davidson’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.

own goalgoal lineQ1Davidson: Touchdown, from 22 yards out to 0TouchdownPresbyterian: Fumble, from 72 yards out to 55FumbleDavidson: Touchdown, from 45 yards out to 0TouchdownPresbyterian: Touchdown, from 75 yards out to 0TouchdownDavidson: Interception, from 73 yards out to 58InterceptionPresbyterian: Touchdown, from 53 yards out to 0TouchdownDavidson: Punt, from 69 yards out to 65PuntPresbyterian: Touchdown, from 79 yards out to 0TouchdownQ2Davidson: Punt, from 75 yards out to 75PuntPresbyterian: Touchdown, from 67 yards out to 0TouchdownDavidson: Turned over on downs, from 55 yards out to 33DownsPresbyterian: Touchdown, from 67 yards out to 0TouchdownDavidson: End of half, from 64 yards out to 59End of halfQ3Davidson: Punt, from 72 yards out to 70PuntPresbyterian: Punt, from 83 yards out to 30PuntDavidson: Touchdown, from 93 yards out to 0TouchdownPresbyterian: Fumble, from 75 yards out to 87FumbleDavidson: Punt, from 53 yards out to 48PuntQ4Presbyterian: Punt, from 72 yards out to 71PuntDavidson: Turned over on downs, from 55 yards out to 35DownsPresbyterian: Touchdown, from 65 yards out to 0TouchdownDavidson: Turned over on downs, from 60 yards out to 42DownsPresbyterian: End of game, from 58 yards out to 46End of game

From Davidson’s side

Davidson’s best moment: Bullock 14-yd TD run, Davidson goes ahead 7-0 (Q1 13:36). It lifted Davidson’s win chance by 11 points.

Box score

Presbyterian 38, Davidson 21

Presbyterian covered −14.5 by 2.5. The total, 59, went over 56.5.

Davidson leaders

  • Passing Casey Bullock 11 of 22, 124 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
  • Rushing Casey Bullock 19 for 74 yds, 2 TD; Brodey Berg 12 for 44 yds
  • Receiving Andrew Frazier 5 for 77 yds; AJ Adams 5 for 45 yds, 1 TD

Presbyterian leaders

  • Passing Landon Sharpe 13 of 22, 149 yds, 1 TD
  • Rushing Jackson Burleson 18 for 134 yds, 3 TD; Damion Moate 21 for 109 yds, 1 TD
  • Receiving Deverious Abercrombie 2 for 42 yds; Damion Moate 2 for 31 yds

Before kickoff

Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.

Recent games

Last three games

Davidson · 2-4

Rated 250th in our preseason ratings, 265th now.

1-2 in its last three, including a 3-point win over VMI as a 4-point underdog.

L 14-63 @ San Diego #201 of 668

lost by 49 as an 18.5-point underdog

L 32-51 vs Drake #219 of 668

lost by 19 as an 11.5-point underdog

W 27-24 vs VMI #262 of 668

won by 3 as a 4-point underdog

W 28-14 vs Dickinson #474 of 668

Davidson won 28-14 vs Dickinson. Chance to win started at 60%, low 48%, high better than 99%.

L 0-38 vs Elon #183 of 668

lost by 38 as a 32.5-point underdog

Davidson lost 0-38 vs Elon. Chance to win started at 4%, low under 1%, high 4%.

L 35-41 vs Concord #414 of 668

Davidson lost 35-41 vs Concord. Chance to win started at 59%, low 3%, high 87%.

Last three games

Presbyterian · 2-3

Rated 156th in our preseason ratings, 231st now.

1-2 in its last three, capped by a 34-point win over St. Thomas (MN) as a 28.5-point underdog.

W 55-21 vs St. Thomas (MN) #193 of 668

won by 34 as a 28.5-point underdog

Presbyterian won 55-21 vs St. Thomas (MN). Chance to win started at 5%, low 3%, high better than 99%.

L 7-42 @ Marist #198 of 668

lost by 35 as an 8.5-point underdog

Presbyterian lost 7-42 at Marist. Chance to win started at 20%, low under 1%, high 20%.

L 14-58 @ Western Carolina #187 of 668

lost by 44 as a 33.5-point underdog

Presbyterian lost 14-58 at Western Carolina. Chance to win started at 2%, low under 1%, high 2%.

Week by week

Presbyterian

Wk 1: W 47-37 vs UVA Wise▲10UVA WiseWk 1: L 3-62 at Mercer▼59MercerWk 3: L 14-58 at Western Carolina▼44W. Carol…Wk 4: L 7-42 at Marist▼35MaristWk 5: W 55-21 vs St. Thomas (MN)▲34St. Thom…
  • Wk 1Wvs UVA Wise47-37
  • Wk 1Lat Mercer3-62
  • Wk 3Lat Western Carolina14-58
  • Wk 4Lat Marist7-42
  • Wk 5Wvs St. Thomas (MN)55-21

Davidson

Wk 1: L 0-38 vs Elon▼38ElonWk 2: W 28-14 vs Dickinson▲14DickinsonWk 3: W 27-24 vs VMI▲3VMIWk 4: L 32-51 vs Drake▼19DrakeWk 5: L 14-63 at San Diego▼49San Diego
  • Wk 1Lvs Elon0-38
  • Wk 2Wvs Dickinson28-14
  • Wk 3Wvs VMI27-24
  • Wk 4Lvs Drake32-51
  • Wk 5Lat San Diego14-63

Power rating by week

Presbyterian is rated 6.0 points ahead as of week 5. Our power rating by week; higher is better.

-6-12-17Wk 0Wk 3Wk 5PresbyterianDavidson

The series

Davidson leads the series 19-12-2

33 meetings since 1919 · Davidson has won the last 5

Presbyterian wonDavidson won1919: tie1920: Presbyterian by 71921: Davidson by 71922: Presbyterian by 11923: Davidson by 31924: Davidson by 121925: Davidson by 131926: Davidson by 31949: Presbyterian by 201950: Davidson by 241951: Presbyterian by 21952: Davidson by 11953: Presbyterian by 11954: Presbyterian by 31955: Presbyterian by 91956: Davidson by 201958: Davidson by 11959: Presbyterian by 41960: Presbyterian by 61961: Davidson by 141962: Davidson by 41963: tie1964: Presbyterian by 131965: Davidson by 351966: Davidson by 361967: Davidson by 382010: Presbyterian by 362012: Presbyterian by 152021: Davidson by 352022: Davidson by 322023: Davidson by 172024: Davidson by 112025: Davidson by 119192025
  • 2025Davidson 14-13
  • 2024Davidson 48-37
  • 2023Davidson 45-28
  • 2022Davidson 56-24
  • 2021Davidson 70-35

Line, fans and home field

The betting line, and the fans

Our model and the betting line agree on Presbyterian’s chances here.

50-50Model 89% · Line 8…DavidsonPresbyterian

Presbyterian favored by 14.5 · Total 56.5

How games like this usually go

Presbyterian by 14.5, and it went to form

50%90%Q1Q2Q3Q450%90%Q1Q2Q3Q4

Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game

The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 251 games since 2025 with a favorite of 14.5 to 21.5 points.

The market

The spread moved 1 point toward Davidson.

opened −15.5now −14.5

The total fell 1 point.

opened 57.5now 56.5

Spread: −15.5 → −14.5 · Total: 57.5 → 56.5

The books’ cut: 5.3%, the margin built into the odds

Where next

Conference standings

Place in the conference, then conference record.