Brown beats Pennsylvania 36-17

Team pages: Pennsylvania · Brown

Pennsylvania3-417
Brown4-336Final
Sat, Oct 31 · Brown Stadium, Providence, R.I. · Crowd 4,183ESPN+

Brown beat Pennsylvania 36-17.

We had Brown favored. It won.

Next: Pennsylvania at Cornell, Sat Nov 7 · 1:00 PM ET

Next: Brown at Yale, Sat Nov 7 · 12:00 PM ET

How it swung

The turning point: Childs 1-yd TD run, Brown leads 10-0 (Q1, 3:44). Brown went from 75% to 90% to win.

Before kickoff, our ratings gave Brown a 71% chance, and the closing betting line (Brown was a 3.5-point favorite) put it at 61%.

Favored the whole way: Brown never fell below 63%.

Pennsylvania never had better than a 37% chance.

FinalBrown 36-17 PennsylvaniaBrown wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.
50%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q495% at halfBrownWon36-1712+11+15Scores
50%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q495% at halfBrownWon36-1712Scores
50%10%25%Q1Q2Q3Q45% at halfBrownLowest 0%Lost17-3612−11−15Scores
50%10%25%Q1Q2Q3Q45% at halfBrownLowest 0%Lost17-3612Scores

The two plays that swung it

  1. 1Q1 13:2023-yd puntBrown 68% → 79% (+11)
  2. 2Q1 3:444th and 1Childs 1-yd TD run, Brown leads 10-0Brown 75% → 90% (+15)

The two plays that swung it

  1. 1Q1 13:2023-yd puntPennsylvania 32% → 21% (−11)
  2. 2Q1 3:444th and 1Childs 1-yd TD run, Brown leads 10-0Pennsylvania 25% → 10% (−15)
Brown’s chance to win after every play.
How to read this chartStarts from the pregame line (Brown -3.5), at 70% for Brown (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores.

Every drive

Brown scored on 7 of its 13 drives; Pennsylvania on 3 of its 13.

Brown’s drives are teal, Pennsylvania’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.

own goalgoal lineQ1Brown: Punt, from 70 yards out to 66PuntPennsylvania: Punt, from 78 yards out to 74PuntBrown: Field goal, from 49 yards out to 23Field goalPennsylvania: Fumble, from 71 yards out to 49FumbleBrown: Touchdown, from 51 yards out to 0TouchdownPennsylvania: Punt, from 75 yards out to 74PuntBrown: Touchdown, from 57 yards out to 0TouchdownQ2Pennsylvania: Punt, from 77 yards out to 72PuntBrown: Fumble, from 64 yards out to 47FumblePennsylvania: Punt, from 47 yards out to 43PuntBrown: Punt, from 90 yards out to 62PuntPennsylvania: Punt, from 65 yards out to 42PuntBrown: Punt, from 92 yards out to 83PuntPennsylvania: Field goal, from 47 yards out to 37Field goalBrown: End of half, from 75 yards out to 77End of halfQ3Pennsylvania: Punt, from 57 yards out to 49PuntBrown: Field goal, from 86 yards out to 6Field goalPennsylvania: Turned over on downs, from 85 yards out to 35DownsBrown: Interception, from 65 yards out to 66InterceptionPennsylvania: Touchdown, from 74 yards out to 0TouchdownQ4Brown: Field goal, from 75 yards out to 13Field goalPennsylvania: Interception, from 70 yards out to 65InterceptionBrown: Touchdown, from 29 yards out to 0TouchdownPennsylvania: Touchdown, from 63 yards out to 0TouchdownBrown: Touchdown, from 20 yards out to 0TouchdownPennsylvania: End of game, from 80 yards out to 80End of game

Box score

Brown 36, Pennsylvania 17

Brown covered −3.5 by 15.5. The total, 53, went over 40.5.

Pennsylvania leaders

  • Passing Karson Siqueiros-Lasky 18 of 26, 193 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT
  • Rushing Miles Teodecki 6 for 31 yds; Sean Williams Jr. 11 for 24 yds
  • Receiving Isaac Lee 7 for 76 yds, 1 TD; Mason Page 3 for 53 yds, 1 TD

Brown leaders

  • Passing James Murphy 15 of 25, 230 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
  • Rushing Matt Childs 21 for 75 yds, 1 TD; Jackson Bennett 6 for 42 yds, 1 TD
  • Receiving Jadon Garza-Pender 4 for 48 yds; Trevor Foley 2 for 46 yds

Before kickoff

Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.

Recent games

Last three games

Pennsylvania · 3-3

Rated 247th in our preseason ratings, 222nd now, up 25 spots.

2-1 in its last three, capped by a 3-point win over Yale as a 6.5-point underdog.

W 24-21 vs Yale No. 191 of 668 teams

won by 3 as a 6.5-point underdog

Pennsylvania won 24-21 vs Yale. Chance to win started at 41%, low 11%, high better than 99%.

L 27-28 vs Columbia No. 214 of 668 teams

lost by 1 as a 6.5-point favorite

Pennsylvania lost 27-28 vs Columbia. Chance to win started at 75%, low under 1%, high 99%.

W 24-20 vs Howard No. 225 of 668 teams

won by 4 as an 11.5-point favorite

L 10-14 @ Dartmouth No. 227 of 668 teams

lost by 4 as an 8.5-point underdog

Pennsylvania lost 10-14 at Dartmouth. Chance to win started at 20%, low under 1%, high 45%.

L 7-20 vs Lehigh No. 137 of 668 teams

lost by 13 as a 12.5-point underdog

Pennsylvania lost 7-20 vs Lehigh. Chance to win started at 23%, low under 1%, high 31%.

W 20-7 @ Bucknell No. 235 of 668 teams

won by 13 as a 3.5-point favorite

Pennsylvania won 20-7 at Bucknell. Chance to win started at 52%, low 46%, high 99%.

Last three games

Brown · 3-3

Rated 227th in our preseason ratings, 189th now, up 38 spots.

2-1 in its last three, capped by a 7-point win over Cornell as a 2.5-point underdog.

W 38-31 vs Cornell No. 198 of 668 teams

won by 7 as a 2.5-point underdog

Brown won 38-31 vs Cornell. Chance to win started at 51%, low 4%, high better than 99%.

L 10-16 @ Princeton No. 164 of 668 teams

lost by 6 as a 4-point underdog

Brown lost 10-16 at Princeton. Chance to win started at 32%, low under 1%, high 34%.

W 28-13 vs Bryant No. 189 of 668 teams

won by 15 as a 5.5-point favorite

Brown won 28-13 vs Bryant. Chance to win started at 73%, low 64%, high better than 99%.

L 10-13 @ Rhode Island No. 144 of 668 teams

lost by 3 as a 3.5-point underdog

Brown lost 10-13 at Rhode Island. Chance to win started at 30%, low under 1%, high 72%.

L 10-14 vs Harvard No. 180 of 668 teams

lost by 4 as a 13.5-point underdog

Brown lost 10-14 vs Harvard. Chance to win started at 23%, low 3%, high 27%.

W 17-10 @ New Haven No. 256 of 668 teams

won by 7 as a 10-point favorite

Brown won 17-10 at New Haven. Chance to win started at 69%, low 64%, high 97%.

Week by week

Brown

Wk 4: L 10-14 vs Harvard▼4HarvardWk 5: L 10-13 at Rhode Island▼3Rhode Is…Wk 6: W 28-13 vs Bryant▲15BryantWk 7: L 10-16 at Princeton▼6PrincetonWk 8: W 38-31 vs Cornell▲7Cornell
  • Wk 4Lvs Harvard10-14
  • Wk 5Lat Rhode Island10-13
  • Wk 6Wvs Bryant28-13
  • Wk 7Lat Princeton10-16
  • Wk 8Wvs Cornell38-31

Pennsylvania

Wk 4: L 7-20 vs Lehigh▼13LehighWk 5: L 10-14 at Dartmouth▼4DartmouthWk 6: W 24-20 vs Howard▲4HowardWk 7: L 27-28 vs Columbia▼1ColumbiaWk 8: W 24-21 vs Yale▲3Yale
  • Wk 4Lvs Lehigh7-20
  • Wk 5Lat Dartmouth10-14
  • Wk 6Wvs Howard24-20
  • Wk 7Lvs Columbia27-28
  • Wk 8Wvs Yale24-21

Power rating by week

Brown is rated 2.1 points ahead as of week 8. Our power rating by week; higher is better.

-7-10-12Wk 0Wk 4Wk 8BrownPennsylvania

The series

Pennsylvania leads the series 50-21-1

72 meetings since 1895 · Pennsylvania has won the last 2

Brown wonPennsylvania won1895: Pennsylvania by 121896: Pennsylvania by 161897: Pennsylvania by 401898: Pennsylvania by 181899: tie1900: Pennsylvania by 121901: Pennsylvania by 261902: Brown by 91903: Pennsylvania by 301904: Pennsylvania by 61905: Pennsylvania by 21906: Pennsylvania by 141907: Pennsylvania by 111908: Pennsylvania by 121909: Pennsylvania by 81910: Pennsylvania by 201911: Brown by 61912: Brown by 231913: Pennsylvania by 281925: Pennsylvania by 91927: Pennsylvania by 81936: Pennsylvania by 421945: Pennsylvania by 501950: Pennsylvania by 501956: Pennsylvania by 71957: Brown by 131958: Pennsylvania by 11959: Pennsylvania by 271960: Pennsylvania by 291961: Pennsylvania by 71962: Pennsylvania by 31963: Brown by 281964: Brown by 31965: Pennsylvania by 71966: Pennsylvania by 201967: Pennsylvania by 211968: Pennsylvania by 41969: Pennsylvania by 211970: Pennsylvania by 81971: Pennsylvania by 11972: Brown by 81973: Pennsylvania by 81974: Pennsylvania by 51975: Brown by 91976: Pennsylvania by 11977: Pennsylvania by 71978: Brown by 141979: Brown by 61980: Brown by 201981: Brown by 22003: Pennsylvania by 32004: Pennsylvania by 42005: Brown by 142006: Brown by 32007: Brown by 142008: Brown by 72009: Pennsylvania by 72010: Pennsylvania by 172011: Brown by 62012: Pennsylvania by 32013: Brown by 272014: Brown by 82015: Pennsylvania by 202016: Pennsylvania by 72017: Pennsylvania by 102018: Pennsylvania by 62019: Pennsylvania by 22021: Pennsylvania by 282022: Brown by 32023: Brown by 42024: Pennsylvania by 102025: Pennsylvania by 718952025
  • 2025Pennsylvania 28-21
  • 2024Pennsylvania 38-28
  • 2023Brown 30-26
  • 2022Brown 34-31
  • 2021Pennsylvania 45-17

Line, fans and home field

The betting line, and the fans

Our model and the betting line don’t fully agree on Brown’s chances here.

50-50Model · 71%Line · 61%PennsylvaniaBrown

Brown favored by 3.5 · Total 40.5

How games like this usually go

Brown by 3.5, and it went to form

50%90%Q1Q2Q3Q450%90%Q1Q2Q3Q4

Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game

The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 426 games since 2025 with a favorite of 3.5 to 7.5 points.

The market

The spread moved 0.5 points toward Brown.

opened −3now −3.5

Spread: −3 → −3.5

The books’ cut: 5.4%, the margin built into the odds

Where next

Conference standings

Going into this game: place in the conference, then conference record.