Game log · Week-by-week
2026 season · 3 games
| Wk | Opp | CAR | YDS | AVG | TD | LONG | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | W 42-23vs UAB | 11 | 88 | 8.0 | 1 | 51 | Season-high 88 yds |
| Wk 2 | L 27-31vs Duke | 18 | 56 | 3.1 | 0 | 9 | |
| Wk 3 | W 48-10vs Southern Illinois | 9 | 33 | 3.7 | 0 | 8 | |
| Total | 38 | 177 | 4.9 | 1 | 51 |
#5
Ca'Lil Valentine
Junior running back for Illinois. 2026: 3 games with a box-score line.
5′11″ · 200 lb · Hayward, CA · Chandler (Ariz.)
CFB Index 42 · #205 of 326 RBsHigh confidenceWatch-list name (model)
CFB Index
A single number blending on-field production (an EPA-based value lane) with box-score output for this player's position.
0-100, scaled within each position's own cohort — not directly comparable across positions.
The numbers
177
rushing yards · 2026 · through week 3
3 games into 2026 so far
Swing playSwung Illinois from 43% to 64% to win.Duke at Illinois · 31-27
Valentine draft stock is rising already.r/CFB game thread · ▲ 2His career numbers, season by seasonThe story
Junior running back for Illinois. 2026: 3 games with a box-score line.
- Signed as a 4-star recruit to Illinois in 2024.
Aura™ · Him Watch
Underrated
-20aura tax
Fans rank this player in the 4th percentile of RBs; the tape says
25th pctl our rushing-value metric (wEPA) RBs · 140 qualified, n=10
— the tape outruns the hype.Aura — fan perception4th pctl
Production — on-field25th pctl
n=10 mentions · cohort: RBs · 140 qualified · perception = conversation volume, production = our rushing-value metric (wEPA)
Buzz vs Tape
Attention percentile: 4th · Production percentile: 25th
His production sits in the 25th percentile among qualified RBs this season, well ahead of 4th-percentile attention — a gap of 21 points between tape and volume.
4thattention percentile · vs RBs
25thproduction percentile · vs RBs
Ca'Lil Valentine
Does a little of everything without one standout trait. This is his third year in the same backfield at Illinois. The receipt: 88 rush yds, 4 rec yds against UAB — Week 1, 2026.
177 RUSH YDS · 1 RUSH TD · 38 CARRIES
Low coverage — composed from the verified record.
- season totals
- positional archetype classification
- seasons on the roster
- game log
His career
He was on the field for 3 seasons. That is rarer than it sounds.
The week the volume broke through — put up 95 yds at Purdue.Purdue · W 43-272025
202412 games
- Signed with Illinois4-star out of Chandler
Career arc
HS
Recruit
★★★★
CFB
College
Illinois
NFL
NFL Draft
—
Coaching lineage · 2024–2026
1 coach2024–2026
Illinois
Played his entire career under Bret Bielema.
Career stats
Game log
Game by game
Ca'Lil Valentine's 2026 production
Point color shows the opponent's defensive strength that week (red = weaker defense, blue = stronger) — dashed line is this player's own season average.
Signature game
SIGNATURE GAME · Week 3 · 2026
W 48–10
Signature plays
Signature plays · top plays by |EPA|
The plays that mattered most
- Week 1 · UAB · 2&3 · Q1 · EPA +3.87(01:26) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 C.Valentine rush middle for 51 yards gain to the UAB00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 01:18, 1ST DOWN #37 E.Moczulski kick attempt good (H: #81 L.Rau, LS: #44 P.Mahoney III)
- Week 1 · UAB · 1&10 · Q1 · EPA +1.52(02:24) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 C.Valentine rush left for 17 yards gain to the ILL42 (#11 A.McKenzie), 1ST DOWN
- Week 2 · Duke · 2&6 · Q2 · EPA +1.36(14:58) Shotgun #5 C.Valentine rush middle for 9 yards gain to the DUKE49 (#9 C.Ojarikre), 1ST DOWN
- Week 3 · Southern Illinois · 1&10 · Q1 · EPA -1.16(01:41) Shotgun #5 C.Valentine rush middle for 0 yards to the ILL44 (#46 A.Behm)
- Week 1 · UAB · 3&1 · Q3 · EPA +1.07(13:34) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 C.Valentine rush middle for 2 yards gain to the ILL50 (#13 J.Jordan), 1ST DOWN
- Week 2 · Duke · 1&10 · Q3 · EPA +1.04(09:37) #5 C.Valentine rush right for 8 yards gain to the ILL44 (#1 K.Loud)
- Week 2 · Duke · 2&4 · Q4 · EPA -0.89(04:27) Shotgun #5 C.Valentine rush middle for 1 yard gain to the ILL39 (#12 B.Davis)
- Week 3 · Southern Illinois · 3&3 · Q1 · EPA -0.88(00:18) Shotgun #5 C.Valentine rush middle for 1 yard gain to the SIU47 (#46 A.Behm)
- Week 2 · Duke · 3&3 · Q4 · EPA -0.82(03:42) #5 C.Valentine rush right for 1 yard loss to the ILL38 (#10 T.Reed)
- Week 2 · Duke · 2&3 · Q1 · EPA +0.81(07:58) Shotgun #4 K.Houser pass complete short left to #5 C.Valentine caught at ILL30, for 9 yards to the ILL41 (#0 D.Flowers), out of bounds, 1ST DOWN
2026 snapshot
Since week 2: +33 rushing yards.
Season context · Team result + system
3 seasons under Bret Bielema — 21-8 over that span.
2024Illinois10-3HC: Bret Bielema · Run-leaning, slow tempo
2025Illinois9-4HC: Bret Bielema · Run-leaning
2026Illinois2-1HC: Bret Bielema · Balanced, slow tempo
Where this profile ranks vs the RB cohort
Box-score percentiles
High confidence
Elite: long run (80th percentile). Concern: carries (0th percentile).
Box-score rates (7)
Percentiles versus same-position peers with enough snaps this season, based on box-score rates.
Splits & context
Splits · Per-game
2026 season · 3 games
Home vs Road
| YDS/g | YPC | TD/g | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home3g | 59.0 | 4.9 | 0.3 |
First half vs Second half
| YDS/g | YPC | TD/g | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Weeks 1-73g | 59.0 | 4.9 | 0.3 |
Supporting cast · Scheme
Staff and system around the player
Head Coach
Bret Bielema
Pass share
48.8%
81 pass / 85 run
Plays / game
55.3
3 games
Team sack rate
2.2%
91 dropbacks · PBP
Scheme: Balanced, slow tempo.
Awards
Player standing · 2026
Watch-list name (model)
Our Heisman model has him inside the top 25; he is not on a published award watch list yet.
Recognition
Roster2-deepStarterRecognizedEliteApex
2026 outlook
Outside shot for All-Big Ten
Based on 2025: #31 of 44 Big Ten RBs
How the All-Big Ten estimate is computed
15% estimated, 95% confidence interval 13–17%. Base rate measured from players who finished at a comparable rank in their conference and came back the next season. It is an estimate from a small sample, not a forecast of this player.
How he plays
Play style
Plays within the scheme — consistent production without a dominant dimension.
CFB Index positional classification
DNA match
Player DNA
Balanced Back
Plays within the scheme — consistent production without a dominant dimension.
RB
His 2025 production profile sits closest to Keenan Phillips’s 2025 season.
83%match
Matches Keenan on
Yards / carry
Total rush EPA (college ability)
Rush TD rate
Differs from Keenan on
Recruiting rating (higher)
Height (higher)
Through 3 college seasons, his career arc tracks closest to Garrett Groshek’s path through Wisconsin.
Matches Garrett on
Yards per carry
As a sophomore, his production profile tracks closest to C.J. Hester's sophomore season at Massachusetts (2024).
Matches C.J. on
Total rush EPA (college ability)
Yards / carry
Yards / reception
Differs from C.J. on
Recruiting rating (higher)
Player DNA
Players who play like Ca'Lil Valentine
Heisman trajectory
Heisman Trajectory · 2026
Peak #143
Peaked at #143 this season.
Background
Pronunciation: kuh-LEEL 2026 - Illinois Phil Steele Preseason All-Big Ten Third Team Athlon Preseason All-Big Ten Fourth Team Doak Walker Award watch list 2025 - Illinois Played in all 13 games with six starts at running back 131 carries for 614 yards and four touchdowns on the season 10…
The backfield · Illinois
- #5Ca'Lil Valentine614 rushing yards · 2025
- #21Aidan Laughery382 rushing yards · 2025
- #23Jordan Anderson41 rushing yards · 2025
- #27Corey Rashadno box-score line yet
- #31Murphy Clementno box-score line yet
4 more on the roster · Illinois team page
Stats from CFBD · ESPN · fan discourse. Every figure computed from source tables — not invented. Methodology