cfb zeitgeistZeitgeist
OFFSEASON · SUMMER 2026 · COMMITMENT SEASON
Heisman / Players / Gemari Sands /Florida Atlantic

Gemari Sands

RB · Florida Atlantic · So · #23

Below the discourse floor — the honest stats-only state.

465 RUSH YDS · 0 RUSH TD · 105 CARRIES

2026 RETURNINGReturning to Florida Atlantic for 2026

2026 Outlook

Returning to Florida Atlantic for 2026

Updated May 27

2026 Depth chart

Returning starter

Running back · Florida Atlantic

Returning around him

  • 21% of 2024 offensive production back (Heavy turnover)
  • Transfer portal: -8 net (22 in / 30 out)

2026 Award watch

No preseason watch lists yet (most drop June 15 – July 15)

Florida Atlantic · Last season: 4-8 · Talent rank #82 · 2026 recruiting class #85

RB · FLORIDA ATLANTIC · AMERICAN ATHLETIC

Gemari Sands

  • 2
  • #23
  • 6-0 | 195 lb
  • Fort Lauderdale, FL

CFB Zeitgeist Score

44

Mid-pack in the position cohort. Carried by rush yards at the 48th percentile.

Heisman Heat

#3927

<1% win probability

Fan Belief

Awaiting

Player-specific FI not yet ingested. Falls back to team mood below.

Respect Gap

Awaiting

Coming online with player-level FI.

Reality Gap

Awaiting

Coming online with player-level FI.

ACCOLADE PROBABILITY

Heisman

<1%

TOP RB AWARD

Doak Walker

CONSENSUS

All-American

Player Standing · 17 rungs

Tier 2 · Starter

R07 · Impact starter

Impact starter. Producing measurable value above replacement.

Not on team2-deepStarterRecognizedEliteApex

Career Arc

HS
Recruit
★★★
#1166 national
CFB
College
Florida Atlantic
2025
NFL
NFL Draft
Not drafted (yet)

Identity & Role

The durable bio layer: position, size, hometown, and roster role.

PositionRB
Class2
Jersey23
Measurements6-0 | 195 lb
HometownFort Lauderdale, FL
Primary teamFlorida Atlantic

Recruiting Pedigree

How big the prospect was before college, and whether the later career arc beat that expectation.

Top pedigree 3-star No. 1166 recruit
Composite rating 0.8583 HighSchool
Signed with -- 2023
Origin St. Thomas Aquinas Fort Lauderdale, FL, USA
Class Profile Context
2023 3-star | 0.8583 No. 1166 recruit | HighSchool

Transfer Arc

Portal movement changes role, context, and perception. This keeps that path in one place.

Portal moves 0 No portal entry on file
Latest destination -- --
Transfer stars -- CFBD transfer rating context
Eligibility -- Transfer date TBD
Season Move Context
No transfer portal moves on file for this player.

Heisman Lens · 2024 Season · Final

Where the player landed at the end of the listed season — final nowcast rank, win/finalist/ballot probabilities, and the cleanest official Heisman placement on file.

HIGH CONFIDENCE· through week 16
Current nowcast#3927Latest modeled ballot order
Season forecast#4081Where the full season sim points
Win probability0.0%Chance to actually win the trophy
Finalist probability0.0%Chance to make the finalist tier
Ballot probability0.0%Chance to appear anywhere on a ballot
Best official finish--Best completed Heisman placement on file

Heisman Futures

Not yet listed on major futures markets.

Achievements

  • Program Benchmark 5.5% Program Benchmark Season leader for the program at the player's position across the headline volume metric (passing yards / rushing yards / receiving yards). Held by 5.5% of the 2025 pool. Team leader in rushing yards (465).

Selector Grid · 2025

AP
FWAA
AFCA
WCFF
SN
SI

Selector recognition fills in once the major honors lists (AP, FWAA, AFCA, Walter Camp, Sporting News, SI) are scraped and ingested.

NIL · Recruiting · NFL Draft

Market value, pedigree & pro outcome

Recruit stars

★★★☆☆

to —

Composite

0.8583

#1166 national

Today’s Hot-Take

The Hot-Take engine fires when this player’s percentile profile crosses a defensible threshold (top 10% in a cohort, 100+ snap sample). When it’s quiet, the model is honoring its “must be defensible” rule.

Anti-Take

PENDING

The contrarian read fires when the rules-engine detects a stat that complicates the Hot-Take. Quiet here means the model hasn’t found a defensible counter yet — not that one doesn’t exist.

The Room on Gemari Sands

Fan sentiment ·

Belief Meter

Awaiting per-cohort signal

Sample 0 mentions
Confidence BELOW-FLOOR

Top Take

Trajectory

Cohort divergence mapbearishbullishheatedcalmRivals: 1 mentions · belief +0 · "Here are the new numbers I noticed when checking the roster page. This doesn't c"RivalsNational: 3 mentions · belief +0 · "[Source](https://x.com/mzenitz/status/2012177665898213863) Made with the /r/CFB"National
  • Rivals · n=1
  • National · n=3

Rival Radar

How rival fanbases talk about Gemari Sands

Only 1 rival mention(s) — below the 4-mention floor for a defensible read.

2025 Signature · 2025 season

Receiving TDs

0

count

All FBS WRs, min 20 receptions

National rank #476 of 531
Percentile vs All FBS WRs, min 20 receptions 10th

Why it matters

#476 of 531 All FBS WRs in receiving TDs — 0 TDs on 40 receptions.

Vs cohort

This player 0 (10th)

HIGH · n=40 cohort 531

  • Also strong
  • Receiving yards (total)#487 / 531
  • Yards per reception#528 / 531

Signature Moment

No signature moment on the ledger yet.

Returns once this player puts together a multi-game body of work — single-game flashes alone don't clear the bar.

A 3-act season arc returns once this player has six or more games on the ledger.

Season Pace · Projection

Where the rushing totals stand

projecting to 13-game
Through 12g
465Rush yards
105Carries
0Rush TDs
Per game
38.8Rush yards
9Carries
0Rush TDs
Projected (13g)
503.8Rush yards
114Carries
0Rush TDs

To hit 750-yard season (currently 465): needs 285/game over remaining 1.

To hit 1,000-yard season (currently 465): needs 535/game over remaining 1.

To hit 1,500-yard season (currently 465): needs 1,035/game over remaining 1.

To hit 10 rushing TDs (currently 0): needs 10/game over remaining 1.

To hit 15 rushing TDs (currently 0): needs 15/game over remaining 1.

To hit 20 rushing TDs (currently 0): needs 20/game over remaining 1.

Why this is more than a rushing profile

The fast read on the thing that makes this player more than a generic stat line.

Gemari Sands is not a one-lane back. The profile is interesting because the workload spills beyond pure rushing volume: 465 rushing yards, 40 catches, and 6 return yards for Florida Atlantic. That kind of all-purpose footprint gives the card a much richer story than a basic carry total.

Current place #3927 0.0% win | 0.0% finalist
Role load 16.5% Overall usage share
Profile quirk All-purpose load 6 return yds

2025 Season · Final

Traditional stats first. Advanced context underneath.

Last season

RB season snapshot

2025 season snapshot | final

2025 season snapshot | finalData: CFBD player stats + local Heisman modelPeer context: same position + same level
Scrimmage yards 682 465 rush | 217 rec | #181/735 (76th pct)
Rush TD 0 105 carries | #447/739 (40th pct)
Yards/carry 4.4 Per-rush efficiency | #409/735 (44th pct)
Player identity What kind of player is this?

30-second read

What kind of player is this?

Passing-game back against FBS RB peers.

Passing-game back

2025 Season · Final

2025 season snapshot | final

Rushing

CAR
105 80th
YDS
465 76th
YPC
4.4 44th
TD
0 40th

Receiving

REC
40 99th
YDS
217 92nd
YPR
5.4 30th
TD
0 70th

Game Log · Week-by-week

2025 season · 12 games

Box score · CFBD
WkOppCARYDSAVGTDLONGNote
Wk 1L 7-39@ Maryland9444.9023
Wk 2W 56-14vs Florida A&M10838.3037
Wk 3L 28-38@ Florida International141057.5026Season-high 105 yds
Wk 5L 26-55vs Memphis5132.609
Wk 6W 27-21@ Rice393.005
Wk 7W 53-33vs UAB11474.3011
Wk 8L 13-48@ South Florida771.006
Wk 9L 32-42@ Navy7223.108
Wk 11W 40-21vs Tulsa671.206
Wk 12L 24-35@ Tulane13503.8011
Wk 13L 45-48vs UConn11444.0010
Wk 14L 3-42vs East Carolina9343.808
Total1054654.0037
Season-by-season tables Career rows + per-season box score

Traditional history

Traditional Stats

Season rows up top, career context at the bottom.

Season rows Career row

Season context · Team result + system

2025Florida Atlantic4-8HC: Zach Kittley · Pass-heavy, fast tempo
SeasonTeam
2025Florida Atlantic1054654.40--
Career1 loaded season1054654.40--
SeasonTeam
2025Florida Atlantic402175.40--
Career1 loaded season402175.40--
Advanced layer Usage, value, and context

Advanced metrics second

Advanced Metrics

Usage, value, and opponent-adjusted context.

Usage Value Context
Rushing WEPA

Opponent-adjusted rushing value. It helps separate empty volume from carries that actually move the scoreboard.

Role share

How much of the team's offense flows through this back once rushing work and receiving work are combined.

Peer percentile

Every percentile is compared against players at the same position and level, so an FBS quarterback is judged against FBS quarterbacks, not the whole sport.

Traditional first

The top tables stick to the stats fans already know from broadcasts and box scores. Advanced context is pushed underneath instead of replacing the basics.

Receiving work 40 217 rec yds | #5/552 (99th pct)
Usage 16.5% 31.7% rush share | #140/738 (81st pct)
Rushing WEPA +0.06 Opponent-adjusted rush value | #279/362 (23rd pct)
Open full stat explorer
0 metrics visible Showing all metrics
Group Metric Value Rank Pct Why it matters
Rushing Rushing yards 465 #181/735 76th pct Volumevs FBS RB
Rushing Rush TD 0 #447/739 40th pct Scoringvs FBS RB
Rushing Yards / carry 4.4 #409/735 44th pct Efficiencyvs FBS RB
Receiving Receptions 40 #5/552 99th pct Volumevs FBS RB
Receiving Receiving yards 217 #43/548 92nd pct Volumevs FBS RB
Value Rushing WEPA +0.06 #279/362 23rd pct Opponent-adjusted rushing value | 93 weighted playsvs FBS RB
Usage Role share 16.5% #140/738 81st pct Share of team offensevs FBS RB
Rushing Carries 105 #150/739 80th pct Volumevs FBS RB
Rushing Rushing LONG 37 #253/733 66th pct Metricvs FBS RB
Receiving Receiving LONG 18 #258/540 52nd pct Metricvs FBS RB
Receiving Yards / catch 5.4 #384/548 30th pct Efficiencyvs FBS RB
Receiving Receiving TD 0 #169/552 70th pct Scoringvs FBS RB
Returns Kick return avg 6.0 #188/199 6th pct Efficiencyvs FBS RB
Returns Kick return yards 6 #189/200 6th pct Volumevs FBS RB
Returns Kick returns 1 #139/206 33rd pct Volumevs FBS RB
Usage Rush share 31.7% #108/738 86th pct Ground-game usagevs FBS RB
Usage 2nd-down usage 19.8% #96/738 87th pct Middle-down loadvs FBS RB
Usage 1st-down usage 17.8% #180/738 76th pct Early-down loadvs FBS RB
Usage Standard-down usage 17.3% #180/738 76th pct Base-situation sharevs FBS RB
Usage Passing-down usage 15.2% #63/738 92nd pct Known-passing sharevs FBS RB
Usage 3rd-down usage 13.0% #119/738 84th pct Money-down loadvs FBS RB
Usage Pass share 8.1% #53/738 93rd pct Air-game usagevs FBS RB

Player Standing

Universal 17-step ladder. Tier pills below; accolade streams nested.

AWAITING CLASSIFICATION

On-team2-deepStartingRecognizedEliteApex

AWAITING CLASSIFICATION · Rung None of 16

Why he’s here

Standing classification populates when honors, Heisman, and roster signals all align.

What moves him up

What moves him down

Accolade streams

StatusAwaiting tracker

Heisman model tracks the top FBS contenders weekly; this player hasn't entered the watch list yet.

Splits · Per-game

2025 season · 12 games

Home/Road · Win/Loss · Season halves

Home vs Road

YDS/gYPCTD/g
Home6g38.04.00.0
Road6g39.53.90.0

Win vs Loss

YDS/gYPCTD/g
Wins4g36.54.20.0
Losses8g39.93.80.0

First half vs Second half

YDS/gYPCTD/g
Weeks 1-76g50.25.10.0
Weeks 8+6g27.32.80.0

Pocket and defense-quality (clean vs. pressure) splits are coming soon.

Savant · Box-rate percentiles

Where this profile ranks vs the RB cohort

44Mid-pack
7 metrics · season cumulative

Elite: receptions (98th). Strength: rec yards (88th). Concern: rush tds (3rd).

Receptions#5 / 338 · 98th pct
40rece
Rec yards#40 / 338 · 88th pct
217rece
Carries#150 / 349 · 57th pct
105rush
Rush yards#181 / 349 · 48th pct
465rush
Long run#219 / 349 · 37th pct
37rush
Yards / carry#241 / 349 · 29th pct
4.4rush
Rush TDs#326 / 349 · 3rd pct
0rush

Percentiles versus same-position peers with enough snaps this season, based on box-score rates.

Advanced Savant · RB · 2024

Percentile Card

Advanced opponent-adjusted percentile bars are coming soon for this player.

P4G5All FBS
EPA / dropback
awaiting
CPOE
awaiting
Success rate
awaiting
Explosive rate (20+)
awaiting
aDOT
awaiting
Deep-ball accuracy
awaiting
Pressure-to-sack
awaiting
3rd-down EPA
awaiting
Red-zone TD rate
awaiting
Play-action EPA
awaiting
Scramble EPA
awaiting
Turnover-worthy play rate
awaiting

Advanced Savant

Opponent-adjusted advanced metrics with a cohort filter.

wepa_rushing0.06Below (<p25) (n=178)

Peer Comparator · Fingerprint match

Three closest profiles by box-rate percentile

3 peers · 7 metrics
Gemari SandsFlorida AtlanticRashod DubinionApp State· 73% simAl-Jay HendersonBuffalo· 68% simDontae McMillanEastern Michigan· 66% sim
Receptions
98
Sands
86
Dubinion
85
Henderson
93
McMillan
Rec yards
88
Sands
77
Dubinion
79
Henderson
98
McMillan
Carries
57
Sands
87
Dubinion
90
Henderson
88
McMillan
Rush yards
48
Sands
84
Dubinion
79
Henderson
89
McMillan
Long run
37
Sands
39
Dubinion
43
Henderson
64
McMillan
Yards / carry
29
Sands
53
Dubinion
18
Henderson
79
McMillan
Rush TDs
3
Sands
50
Dubinion
72
Henderson
50
McMillan

Closest peers by overall box-score percentile profile at the same position.

Player DNA

The Satellite Back

Deployed as a receiver as much as a runner. Value is in space, not between the tackles.

RB

His 2025 production profile sits closest to Jaiden Credle’s 2022 season.

Jaiden Credle

77%match

Northern Illinois · 2022

#2

Emmett Johnson

Nebraska · 2024

NFL Rd 5
72%
#3

Davion Ervin-Poindexter

Western Kentucky · 2023

68%
#4

Jaiden Credle

Middle Tennessee · 2023

67%
#5

Marvis Parrish

Western Kentucky · 2025

66%

Matches Jaiden on

Yards / carry
Total rush EPA (college ability)
Rush TD rate

Not enough data yet for this comparison.

As a sophomore, his production profile tracks closest to Emmett Johnson's sophomore season at Nebraska (2024).

Emmett Johnson

71%match

Nebraska · 2024

All-Big TenNFL Rd 5
#2

Cam Fancher

Marshall · 2022

67%
#3

Jaiden Credle

Middle Tennessee · 2023

69%
#4

Tyler Vitt

Texas State · 2021

60%
#5

Caden Williams

Liberty · 2025

60%

Matches Emmett on

Weight
Yards / carry
Receiving share

Differs from Emmett on

Class year (lower)

Supporting Cast · Scheme

Staff and system around the player

2025 season

Head Coach

Zach Kittley

Pass share

62.3%

580 pass / 351 run

Plays / game

77.6

12 games

OL sack rate (allowed)

5.2%

423 dropbacks · PBP

Scheme: Pass-heavy, fast tempo.

Coaching Lineage · 2025

1 coach
2025
Zach Kittley
Florida Atlantic

Played his entire career under Zach Kittley.

Bio · Recruiting · Transfer · Roster

Off-field context — switch tabs to drill into recruit profile, transfer arc, or roster timeline.

HometownFort Lauderdale, FL
Height6'0"
Weight195 lb
Class2
PositionRB
Jersey23

Trophy Case · Detail

Every honor on the ledger, broken out by stream and selector.

Honors

No formal honors on the ledger yet

All-America, all-conference, player-of-the-week, watch-list, and postseason awards land here when they're earned. The absence is the signal: most players never collect formal honors, and that's its own kind of context.

Honors Timeline

Season-end distinction and week-by-week recognition on one timeline.

Season Honor Scope Team / Selector Context
No formal honors on the ledger yet. All-America, all-conference, weekly awards, watch lists, and postseason trophies land here when they’re earned.

Heisman By Year

Modeled rank and official finish by season.

Season Team Role Latest Model Forecast Win Finalist Official Finish Points Context
2024 Florida Atlantic RB2 #3927 #4081 0.0% 0.0% -- -- W16 snapshot | American Athletic
2023 Florida Atlantic RB2 #4424 #4582 0.0% 0.0% -- -- W19 snapshot | American Athletic

Roster Timeline

Team, conference, and class by season.

Season Team Conference Pos Class Bio
2025 Florida Atlantic American Athletic RB 2 No. 23 | 6-0 | 195 lb | Fort Lauderdale, FL
2024 Florida Atlantic American Athletic RB 2 No. 23 | 6-0 | 195 lb | Fort Lauderdale, FL
2023 Florida Atlantic American Athletic RB 2 No. 23 | 6-0 | 195 lb | Fort Lauderdale, FL