CFB Zeitgeist Score
53
Mid-pack in the position cohort. Carried by yards / catch at the 76th percentile.
J.Michael Sturdivant
Below the discourse floor — the honest stats-only state.
406 REC YDS · 27 REC · 3 REC TD
2026 Outlook
Returning to Florida for 2026
2026 Depth chart
Projected starter
Wide receiver · Florida
Returning around him
- 55% of 2024 offensive production back (Solid continuity)
- 7 Florida players drafted to NFL
- Transfer portal: -9 net (27 in / 36 out)
2026 Award watch
No preseason watch lists yet (most drop June 15 – July 15)
Florida · Last season: 4-8 (AP #13) · Talent rank #12 · 2026 recruiting class #7
WR · FLORIDA · SEC
J.Michael Sturdivant
- 4
- #9
- 6-3 | 213 lb
- Flower Mound, TX
Heisman Heat
#783
<1% win probability
Fan Belief
Awaiting
Player-specific FI not yet ingested. Falls back to team mood below.
Respect Gap
Awaiting
Coming online with player-level FI.
Reality Gap
Awaiting
Coming online with player-level FI.
ACCOLADE PROBABILITY
Heisman
<1%
TOP WR AWARD
Biletnikoff
—
CONSENSUS
All-American
—
Player Standing · 17 rungs
Tier 2 · StarterR06 · Starter
Starter. A locked-in starting role.
Not on team2-deepStarterRecognizedEliteApex
Development Trajectory · receiving yards
2022–2025-46%
Sharp dropoff (-46%) — career inflection point.
Career Arc
HS
Recruit
★★★★
CFB
College
3 teams
NFL
NFL Draft
—
Identity & Role
The durable bio layer: position, size, hometown, and roster role.
Recruiting Pedigree
How big the prospect was before college, and whether the later career arc beat that expectation.
| Class | Profile | Context |
|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 4-star | 0.9369 | No. 145 recruit | HighSchool | California |
Transfer Arc
Portal movement changes role, context, and perception. This keeps that path in one place.
| Season | Move | Context |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | UCLA -> Florida | 3-star | 0.8900 | Immediate |
| 2023 | California -> UCLA | 4-star | 0.9300 | Immediate |
Heisman Lens · 2024 Season · Final
Where the player landed at the end of the listed season — final nowcast rank, win/finalist/ballot probabilities, and the cleanest official Heisman placement on file.
HIGH CONFIDENCE· through week 16Heisman Futures
Not yet listed on major futures markets.
No achievements unlocked yet this season.
Selector Grid · 2025
AP—
FWAA—
AFCA—
WCFF—
SN—
SI—
Selector recognition fills in once the major honors lists (AP, FWAA, AFCA, Walter Camp, Sporting News, SI) are scraped and ingested.
NIL · Recruiting · NFL Draft
Market value, pedigree & pro outcome
Recruit stars
★★★★☆
to California
Composite
0.9369
#145 national
Today’s Hot-Take
The Hot-Take engine fires when this player’s percentile profile crosses a defensible threshold (top 10% in a cohort, 100+ snap sample). When it’s quiet, the model is honoring its “must be defensible” rule.
Anti-Take
PENDINGThe contrarian read fires when the rules-engine detects a stat that complicates the Hot-Take. Quiet here means the model hasn’t found a defensible counter yet — not that one doesn’t exist.
The Room on J.Michael Sturdivant
Fan sentiment · Awaiting signal
The Room reads fan conversation around a player — who’s talking, what they believe, and how that shifts. It publishes once weekly volume rebuilds; for most players that’s in-season, when game-week chatter spikes.
Cohort divergence map
Cohort divergence reads how different fanbases talk about this player. Returns once weekly mentions clear the publish floor.
Rival Radar
How rival fanbases talk about J.Michael Sturdivant
No rival-bucket mentions in the current season.
2025 Signature · 2025 season
Yards per reception
15.0
yds
All FBS WRs, min 20 receptions
National rank #104 of 531
Percentile vs All FBS WRs, min 20 receptions 81st
Why it matters
#104 of 531 All FBS WRs at 15.0 yards per reception (27 catches).
Vs cohort
This player 15.0 (81th)
MODERATE · n=27 cohort 531
- Also strong
- Receiving TDs#222 / 531
- Receiving yards (total)#297 / 531
Signature Moment
Week 12 at Ole Miss — 62 ypr
Result L 24-34
The week the volume broke through — put up 62 yds at Ole Miss.
Season Pace · Projection
Where the receiving totals stand
Through 12g
406Rec yards
27Receptions
3Rec TDs
Per game
33.8Rec yards
2Receptions
0Rec TDs
Projected (13g)
439.8Rec yards
29Receptions
3Rec TDs
To hit 700-yard receiver (currently 406): needs 294/game over remaining 1.
To hit 1,000-yard receiver (currently 406): needs 594/game over remaining 1.
To hit 60-catch season (currently 27): needs 33/game over remaining 1.
To hit 80-catch season (currently 27): needs 53/game over remaining 1.
To hit 8 receiving TDs (currently 3): needs 5/game over remaining 1.
To hit 10 receiving TDs (currently 3): needs 7/game over remaining 1.
What made this player interesting
The fast read on the thing that makes this player more than a generic stat line.
J.Michael Sturdivant's story is about how role and output meet each other. For Florida, the card already shows enough current-season production to explain why he is on the serious-player board, and the next layer is determining whether the profile is just very good or actually distinctive.
2025 Season · Final
Traditional stats first. Advanced context underneath.
Last season
WR season snapshot
2025 season snapshot | final
2025 season snapshot | finalData: CFBD player stats + local Heisman modelPeer context: same position + same level
Player identity What kind of player is this?
30-second read
What kind of player is this?
Receiving weapon against FBS receiving peers.
2025 Season · Final
2025 season snapshot | final
Receiving
REC
27 71st
YDS
406 74th
YPR
15.0 76th
TD
3 82nd
Rushing
CAR
1 35th
YDS
1 20th
YPC
1.0 22nd
TD
0 81st
Returns
KR YDS
10 11th
KR AVG
10.0 13th
Game Log · Week-by-week
2025 season · 12 games
| Wk | Opp | REC | YDS | AVG | TD | LONG | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | W 55-0vs Long Island University | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 1 | 8 | |
| Wk 2 | L 16-18vs South Florida | 2 | 21 | 10.5 | 0 | 12 | |
| Wk 3 | L 10-20@ LSU | 3 | 43 | 14.3 | 0 | 18 | |
| Wk 4 | L 7-26@ Miami | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 | 5 | |
| Wk 6 | W 29-21vs Texas | 2 | 42 | 21.0 | 0 | 23 | |
| Wk 7 | L 17-34@ Texas A&M | 2 | 53 | 26.5 | 0 | 27 | |
| Wk 8 | W 23-21vs Mississippi State | 3 | 43 | 14.3 | 0 | 20 | |
| Wk 10 | L 20-24vs Georgia | 2 | 21 | 10.5 | 0 | 13 | |
| Wk 11 | L 7-38@ Kentucky | 3 | 29 | 9.7 | 0 | 12 | |
| Wk 12 | L 24-34@ Ole Miss | 2 | 62 | 31.0 | 1 | 57 | Season-high 62 yds |
| Wk 13 | L 11-31vs Tennessee | 2 | 22 | 11.0 | 0 | 20 | |
| Wk 14 | W 40-21vs Florida State | 3 | 58 | 19.3 | 1 | 34 | |
| Total | 27 | 406 | 14.7 | 3 | 57 |
Season-by-season tables Career rows + per-season box score
Traditional history
Traditional Stats
Season rows up top, career context at the bottom.
Season context · Team result + system
2021California5-7HC: Justin Wilcox · Balanced
2022California4-8HC: Justin Wilcox · Pass-leaning
2023UCLA8-5HC: Chip Kelly · Run-leaning
2024UCLA5-7HC: Deshaun Foster · Balanced, slow tempo
2025Florida4-8HC: Billy Napier · Balanced
| Season | Team | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Florida | 27 | 406 | 15.0 | 3 | -- |
| 2024 | UCLA | 22 | 315 | 14.3 | 2 | -- |
| 2023 | UCLA | 36 | 597 | 16.6 | 4 | -- |
| 2022 | California | 65 | 755 | 11.6 | 7 | -- |
| 2021 | California | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Career | 5 loaded seasons | 150 | 2,073 | 13.8 | 16 | -- |
| Season | Team | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Florida | 1 | 1 | 10 | -- | -- |
| 2024 | UCLA | 1 | 5 | -- | -- | -- |
| 2023 | UCLA | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| 2022 | California | 2 | -8 | -- | -- | -- |
| 2021 | California | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Career | 5 loaded seasons | 4 | -2 | 10 | -- | -- |
Advanced layer Usage, value, and context
Advanced metrics second
Advanced Metrics
Usage, value, and opponent-adjusted context.
The player's share of a team's passing-game involvement. It is the fastest way to see whether the receiver is a true focal point or more of a complementary piece.
A blended workload view that accounts for catches, designed touches, and any return-game involvement that shapes the overall profile.
Every percentile is compared against players at the same position and level, so an FBS quarterback is judged against FBS quarterbacks, not the whole sport.
The top tables stick to the stats fans already know from broadcasts and box scores. Advanced context is pushed underneath instead of replacing the basics.
Open full stat explorer
| Group | Metric | Value | Rank | Pct | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Receiving | Receptions | 27 | #320/1110 | 71st pct | Volumevs FBS WR |
| Receiving | Receiving yards | 406 | #284/1107 | 74th pct | Volumevs FBS WR |
| Receiving | Receiving TD | 3 | #206/1111 | 82nd pct | Scoringvs FBS WR |
| Receiving | Yards / catch | 15.0 | #261/1106 | 76th pct | Efficiencyvs FBS WR |
| Returns | Kick return yards | 10 | #213/238 | 11th pct | Volumevs FBS WR |
| Usage | Pass share | 11.9% | #383/1137 | 66th pct | Air-game usagevs FBS WR |
| Rushing | Carries | 1 | #264/407 | 35th pct | Volumevs FBS WR |
| Rushing | Rushing LONG | 1 | #334/346 | 4th pct | Metricvs FBS WR |
| Rushing | Rushing yards | 1 | #317/397 | 20th pct | Volumevs FBS WR |
| Rushing | Yards / carry | 1.0 | #309/393 | 22nd pct | Efficiencyvs FBS WR |
| Rushing | Rush TD | 0 | #81/411 | 81st pct | Scoringvs FBS WR |
| Receiving | Receiving LONG | 57 | #198/1105 | 82nd pct | Metricvs FBS WR |
| Returns | Kick return avg | 10.0 | #206/236 | 13th pct | Efficiencyvs FBS WR |
| Returns | Kick returns | 1 | #169/243 | 31st pct | Volumevs FBS WR |
| Usage | Passing-down usage | 8.4% | #357/1137 | 69th pct | Known-passing sharevs FBS WR |
| Usage | 1st-down usage | 6.6% | #269/1137 | 76th pct | Early-down loadvs FBS WR |
| Usage | Role share | 6.1% | #351/1137 | 69th pct | Share of team offensevs FBS WR |
| Usage | 3rd-down usage | 6.0% | #550/1137 | 52nd pct | Money-down loadvs FBS WR |
| Usage | Standard-down usage | 5.3% | #359/1137 | 69th pct | Base-situation sharevs FBS WR |
| Usage | 2nd-down usage | 4.8% | #531/1137 | 53rd pct | Middle-down loadvs FBS WR |
| Usage | Rush share | 0.3% | #332/1137 | 71st pct | Ground-game usagevs FBS WR |
Player Standing
Universal 17-step ladder. Tier pills below; accolade streams nested.
AWAITING CLASSIFICATION
On-team2-deepStartingRecognizedEliteApex
AWAITING CLASSIFICATION · Rung None of 16
Why he’s here
Standing classification populates when honors, Heisman, and roster signals all align.
What moves him up
What moves him down
Accolade streams
Status—Awaiting tracker
Heisman model tracks the top FBS contenders weekly; this player hasn't entered the watch list yet.
Splits · Per-game
2025 season · 12 games
Home vs Road
| REC/g | YDS/g | YPR | TD/g | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home7g | 2.3 | 30.6 | 12.9 | 0.3 |
| Road5g | 2.2 | 38.4 | 17.3 | 0.2 |
Win vs Loss
| REC/g | YDS/g | YPR | TD/g | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wins4g | 2.5 | 37.5 | 14.5 | 0.5 |
| Losses8g | 2.1 | 32.0 | 14.8 | 0.1 |
First half vs Second half
| REC/g | YDS/g | YPR | TD/g | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weeks 1-76g | 2.0 | 28.5 | 13.5 | 0.2 |
| Weeks 8+6g | 2.5 | 39.2 | 16.0 | 0.3 |
Pocket and defense-quality (clean vs. pressure) splits are coming soon.
Savant · Box-rate percentiles
Where this profile ranks vs the WR cohort
53Mid-pack
Concern: rush yards (20th).
Percentiles versus same-position peers with enough snaps this season, based on box-score rates.
Advanced Savant · WR · 2024
Percentile Card
Advanced opponent-adjusted percentile bars are coming soon for this player.
P4G5All FBS
Advanced Savant
Opponent-adjusted advanced metrics with a cohort filter.
Advanced opponent-adjusted metrics are coming soon for this player. Selected cohort: P4.
Peer Comparator · Fingerprint match
Three closest profiles by box-rate percentile
J.Michael SturdivantFloridaHarrison Wallace IIIOle Miss· 75% simQue'Sean BrownDuke· 72% simChris Dawn Jr.Texas State· 71% sim
Yards / catch
Long catch
Rec TDs
Rec yards
Receptions
Rush TDs
Rush yards
Closest peers by overall box-score percentile profile at the same position.
Player DNA
The Possession Receiver
Reliable target who converts on critical downs. Not flashy; consistently productive.
WR
His 2025 production profile sits closest to Austin Watkins’s 2020 season.
Austin Watkins
78%match
#2
Bryson Green
81%
#3
Jason Brownlee
75%
#4
Ja'Cory Thomas
79%
#5
Isaac Teslaa
NFL Rd 3 · Pk 6
79%
Matches Austin on
Reception volume
Weight
Yards / reception
Differs from Austin on
TD rate (higher)
Class year (higher)
Through 4 college seasons, his career arc tracks closest to Lujuan Winningham’s path through Central Arkansas.
Lujuan Winningham
99%match
#2
Jacob Harris
99%
#3
Brian Hightower
98%
#4
Jalen Kelsey
97%
#5
Kyndon Fuselier
93%
Matches Lujuan on
Yards per reception
As a graduate, his production profile tracks closest to Joseph Manjack's graduate season at TCU (2025).
Joseph Manjack
74%match
#2
Malachi Fields
All-ACCNFL Rd 3 · Pk 10
72%
#3
Romello Brinson
71%
#4
Michael Trigg
All-Big 12
67%
#5
Donaven McCulley
66%
Matches Joseph on
Weight
Yards / reception
Total EPA (college ability)
Differs from Joseph on
Reception volume (lower)
TD rate (higher)
Supporting Cast · Scheme
Staff and system around the player
Head Coach
Billy Napier
Pass share
49.4%
372 pass / 381 run
Plays / game
62.8
12 games
OL sack rate (allowed)
7.1%
311 dropbacks · PBP
Scheme: Balanced.
Coaching Lineage · 2021–2025
2 coaches2021
Dan Mullen
Florida
2022era →
Billy Napier
Florida
2023
Billy Napier
Florida
2024
Billy Napier
Florida
2025
Billy Napier
Florida
Coaching transition mid-career: Dan Mullen → Billy Napier. Worth noting in scheme + development context.
Bio · Recruiting · Transfer · Roster
Off-field context — switch tabs to drill into recruit profile, transfer arc, or roster timeline.
HometownFlower Mound, TX
Height6'3"
Weight213 lb
Class4
PositionWR
Jersey9
No fields populated yet.
No fields populated yet.
Current teamFlorida
ConferenceSEC
Joined2025
Career arc5 season(s)
Trophy Case · Detail
Every honor on the ledger, broken out by stream and selector.
No formal honors on the ledger yet
All-America, all-conference, player-of-the-week, watch-list, and postseason awards land here when they're earned. The absence is the signal: most players never collect formal honors, and that's its own kind of context.
Honors Timeline
Season-end distinction and week-by-week recognition on one timeline.
| Season | Honor | Scope | Team / Selector | Context |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| No formal honors on the ledger yet. All-America, all-conference, weekly awards, watch lists, and postseason trophies land here when they’re earned. | ||||
Heisman By Year
Modeled rank and official finish by season.
| Season | Team | Role | Latest Model | Forecast | Win | Finalist | Official Finish | Points | Context |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | UCLA | WR4 | #783 | #1181 | 0.0% | 0.0% | -- | -- | W16 snapshot | Big Ten |
| 2023 | UCLA | WR4 | #417 | #476 | 0.0% | 0.0% | -- | -- | W19 snapshot | Pac-12 |
| 2022 | California | WR4 | #710 | #1048 | 0.0% | 0.0% | -- | -- | W20 snapshot | Pac-12 |
| 2021 | California | WR4 | #4102 | #4214 | 0.0% | 0.0% | -- | -- | W20 snapshot | Pac-12 |
Roster Timeline
Team, conference, and class by season.
| Season | Team | Conference | Pos | Class | Bio |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Florida | SEC | WR | 4 | No. 9 | 6-3 | 213 lb | Flower Mound, TX |
| 2024 | UCLA | Big Ten | WR | 4 | No. 9 | 6-3 | 213 lb | Flower Mound, TX |
| 2023 | UCLA | Pac-12 | WR | 4 | No. 9 | 6-3 | 213 lb | Flower Mound, TX |
| 2022 | California | Pac-12 | WR | 4 | No. 9 | 6-3 | 213 lb | Flower Mound, TX |
| 2021 | California | Pac-12 | WR | 4 | No. 9 | 6-3 | 213 lb | Flower Mound, TX |