John Mateer broke his thumb, then kept playing. The numbers that survived that wreckage — 91st-percentile rushing touchdown rate, 57th-percentile explosive pass rate — tell you what the healthy version looks like. He's back in Norman for 2026, and the SEC should take note.
6′1″ · 224 lb · Little Elm, TX
CFB Index
A single number blending on-field production (an EPA-based value lane) with box-score output for this player's position.
0-100, scaled within each position's own cohort — not directly comparable across positions.
On production he ranks #39 of 146 QBs; on reputation he is a projected national-award finalist. The gap between those two numbers is the story.
The numbers
passing yards · 2026 · through week 3
3 games into 2026 so far -- Backed by 21 car · 197 yds · 1 TD -- top 1% rushing yards game. -- Best game: 225 pass yds, 3 TD, 7 rush yds, vs UTEP
The play that turned itSwung Oklahoma from 40% to 86% to win.LSU at Oklahoma · 17-13
His career numbers, season by seasonThe story
John Mateer broke his thumb, then kept playing. The numbers that survived that wreckage — 91st-percentile rushing touchdown rate, 57th-percentile explosive pass rate — tell you what the healthy version looks like. He's back in Norman for 2026, and the SEC should take note.
Aura™ · Him Watch
+37aura tax
48th pctl our passing-value metric (wEPA) QBs · 160 qualified, n=239
— more hype than the tape.Buzz vs Tape
His own fans read him warmer than the wider college football conversation does — a gap of 46.9 points in belief.
John Mateer is gonna win heisman and then have an extremely weird nfl career, just like all the great Sooner qbs before him
Also worth knowing:
“JOHN MATEER MADE MORE THAN ONE MISTAKE- ITS NOT ONE PLAY THAT DEFINED HIM. He is defined as a junior college QB”
Mateer arrived at Oklahoma as the Washington State transfer nobody in the SEC had film on, and for the first month of 2025 he looked like the most dangerous quarterback in the country. Then came the broken throwing hand against the Tigers, and what followed was 14 touchdowns against 11 interceptions on a compromised release — numbers that understate both how good he'd been and how bad the injury was.
The play-by-play data cuts through the noise. As a runner, Mateer graded at the 87th percentile in rushing touchdown rate and the 89th in success rate on scrambles and designed runs — he converts, he doesn't just accumulate. As a passer, his 57th-percentile explosive pass rate signals genuine downfield ability; the 59th-percentile EPA per dropback is the injury hangover, not the baseline. The 45th-percentile interception rate is the number that has to move in 2026, and it almost certainly will with a healthy hand.
He has returned for his final season with Ben Arbuckle calling plays in Year 2 together. He's on the Maxwell and Heisman preseason watch lists, the weapons around him are better, and the system fits his dual-threat profile as well as any offense in college football. The question isn't whether the talent is there. It's whether the thumb is.
His career
Nobody recruited him. He earned the honors anyway.
Mateer is a dual-threat whose running game grades elite by every efficiency measure — 87th percentile in rushing touchdown rate (he punches it in), 89th in rushing success rate (he moves the chains), 83rd in EPA per carry (he generates value on the ground). As a passer he lives over the top: an 57th-percentile explosive pass rate says he's willing to attack downfield and has the arm to make it work. The tension is turnover rate — a 45th-percentile interception rate in 2025 that tracked almost exactly with the moment his thumb broke. At 6'0.5", 200 pounds, he's not a bruiser but he's slippery enough to make defenses account for him on every snap, which opens the windows his receivers need.
Written by our staff.
The role got bigger.
Career arc
Badges
Coaching lineage · 2022–2026
1 coachPlayed his entire career under Brent Venables.
| Season | Team | |||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | Oklahoma | 47 | 75 | 62.7% | 652 | 8.7 | 6 | 3 | 154.1 | 60 | -- | -- |
| 2025 | Oklahoma | 247 | 397 | 62.2% | 2,885 | 7.3 | 14 | 11 | 129.4 | 51 | -- | -- |
| 2024 | Washington State | 224 | 347 | 64.6% | 3,139 | 9.0 | 29 | 7 | 164.1 | 72 | -- | -- |
| 2023 | Washington State | 13 | 17 | 76.5% | 225 | 13.2 | 2 | 1 | 214.7 | -- | -- | -- |
| 2022 | Washington State | 2 | 2 | 100.0% | 32 | 16.0 | 1 | 0 | 399.4 | -- | -- | -- |
| Career | 533 | 838 | 63.6% | 6,933 | 8.3 | 52 | 22 | 148.3 | 61 | -- | -- |
| Season | Team | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | Oklahoma | 26 | 69 | 2.7 | 0 | -- |
| 2025 | Oklahoma | 149 | 431 | 2.9 | 8 | -- |
| 2024 | Washington State | 178 | 826 | 4.6 | 15 | -- |
| 2023 | Washington State | 21 | 93 | 4.4 | 3 | -- |
| 2022 | Washington State | 4 | 58 | 14.5 | 0 | -- |
| Career | 378 | 1,477 | 3.9 | 26 | -- |
Game by game
Point color shows the opponent's defensive strength that week (red = weaker defense, blue = stronger) — dashed line is this player's own season average.
Game log · Week-by-week
2026 season · 3 games
| Wk | Opp | CMP/ATT | YDS | TD | INT | YPA | QBR | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | W 51-0vs UTEP | 11/17 | 225 | 3 | 0 | 13.2 | 91.5 | 3 TD passes |
| Wk 2 | L 10-17@ Michigan | 17/33 | 189 | 1 | 1 | 5.7 | 61.1 | |
| Wk 3 | W 14-6vs New Mexico | 19/25 | 238 | 2 | 2 | 9.5 | 58.4 | Season-high 238 yds |
| Total | 47/75 | 652 | 6 | 3 | 9.5 | 70.3 |
SIGNATURE GAME · Week 3 · 2026
W 14–6
vs New Mexico
238 yds · 2 TD · 2 INT · QBR 58.4 · 17 rush yds (10 car)
With G. Miller — 40.8 yards per punt · 4 punts · 1 inside the 20 · I. Sategna — 6 rec · 101 yds · 1 TD
Signature plays · top plays by |EPA|
The plays that mattered most
Since week 2: +238 passing yards, +2 passing TD, +2 interceptions.
Season context · Team result + system
Where this profile ranks vs the QB cohort
Box-score + play-by-play EPA percentiles
Concern: interception rate (11th percentile).
Real play-by-play efficiency
Season trend
Percentiles versus same-position peers with enough snaps this season. Most bars are box-score rates; EPA / success-rate bars are computed from real play-by-play (offense only — no defensive EPA model exists yet).
Pass Profile · True throw depth (charted plays)
Adjusted ANY/A, sack rate, and where the yards came from
Adjusted ANY/A
7.7162 of 126 QBsSack rate
5.1%74 of 126 QBsSacked on 5.1% of dropbacks (74 of 126) — and still 62 of 126 in Adjusted ANY/A.
Adjusted ANY/A uses full-season box-score totals (attempts, yards, TDs, INTs); sack rate is play-by-play-derived.
Behind LOS · Negative air yds
Short · 0–9 air yds
Middle · 10–19 air yds
Deep · 20+ air yds
Overall 62.3% completion on 77 attempts · 38% completion on 13 deep attempts (20+ air yds).
Zeitgeist Passer Rating
2026 · our own passing-efficiency number, shown next to the 1979 formula it does not replace.
Thin sample: 77 dropbacks60Zeitgeist Passer Ratingnot ranked until 125 dropbacks
--NCAA passer ratingno box-score line yet
Positive-play rate weight 24%
48.1%69th pct of FBS QBsshare of dropbacks that gained expected pointsYards per attempt weight 56%
8.2789th pct of FBS QBssacks excludedSack rate weight 21% (penalty)
5.2%57th pct of FBS QBsthe input passer rating cannot seeOpponent-adjusted; garbage time excluded (4 of 81 dropbacks dropped). 50 = FBS average; the number is pulled toward 50 when the sample is thin. Scaled against the 2025 FBS population until enough 2026 QBs qualify. How ZPR is built.
Splits · Per-game
2026 season · 3 games
Home vs Road
| YDS/g | TD/g | YPA | INT/g | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home2g | 232 | 2.5 | 11.3 | 1.0 |
| Road1g | 189 | 1.0 | 5.7 | 1.0 |
First half vs Second half
| YDS/g | TD/g | YPA | INT/g | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weeks 1-73g | 217 | 2.0 | 9.5 | 1.0 |
Supporting cast · Scheme
Staff and system around the player
Head Coach
Brent Venables
Pass share
44.0%
77 pass / 98 run
Plays / game
58.3
3 games
Scheme: Run-leaning, slow tempo.
Player standing · 2026
Our Heisman model has him in the top five; no finalist honor is on the books yet.
Recognition
2026 outlook
Heisman market1.7%full market ›
In the mix for All-SEC
Based on 2025: #9 of 16 SEC QBs
35% estimated, 95% confidence interval 31–38%. Base rate measured from players who finished at a comparable rank in their conference and came back the next season. It is an estimate from a small sample, not a forecast of this player.
Play style
Mateer is a dual-threat whose running game grades elite by every efficiency measure — 87th percentile in rushing touchdown rate (he punches it in), 89th in rushing success rate (he moves the chains), 83rd in EPA per carry (he generates value on the ground). As a passer he lives over the top: an 57th-percentile explosive pass rate says he's willing to attack downfield and has the arm to make it work. The tension is turnover rate — a 45th-percentile interception rate in 2025 that tracked almost exactly with the moment his thumb broke. At 6'0.5", 200 pounds, he's not a bruiser but he's slippery enough to make defenses account for him on every snap, which opens the windows his receivers need.
Our classifier reads him the same way: operates within the system without forcing anything.
Returning starter at quarterback for a 10-3 Oklahoma team that went -13 in the portal. The No. 1,871 recruit in the country is starting at quarterback in the SEC as a 5th-year.
Player DNA
Balanced passer who operates within the system, without one standout number carrying the profile.
His 2025 production profile sits closest to Anthony Brown’s 2021 season.
Matches Anthony on
Differs from Anthony on
Through 3 college seasons, his career arc tracks closest to Jaren Hall’s path through BYU.
Matches Jaren on
As a senior, his production profile tracks closest to Rocco Becht's senior season at Iowa State (2025).
Differs from Rocco on
Player DNA
Heisman futures · sportsbook market
#12 in market ▲ from #13 · 6 books
Heisman Trajectory · 2026
Peaked at #17 this season.
Season GP-GS COMP ATT PCT YDS AVG TD INT LONG RUSH YDS AVG TD LONG 2022 1-0 2 2 100.0 32 32.0 1 0 27 4 58 14.5 0 37 2023 11-0 13 17 76.5 235 21.4 2 1 72 21 93 4.4 3 15 2024 12-12 224 347 64.6 3,139 261.6 29 7 59 178 826 4.6 15 68 2025 12-12 247 397 62.2 2,885 240.4 14 11 87 149 431 2.9 8 51…