Next game
at Concordia (MN)
Sat Oct 24 · 2 pm ET
Jake Christiansen Stadium · series 1-3, lost the last 3
Augsburg University 4% to win · our ratings after 6 games
Augsburg University
2-4Minnesota · Edor Nelson Field · 1,400 seats
Last game · Sat Oct 17
W 27-17 vs Macalester
Our model gave Augsburg University 48% before kickoff
The rest of the season
4 of 4 games under 70%, the hardest: Concordia (MN) 4%
Win out <1% · expect 1.3 of 4 more wins
Augsburg University's chance to win each game left, from our model: Concordia (MN) 4%, Carleton 48%, Gustavus Adolphus 11%, Hamline 64%Bar height is our model’s chance in each game left. Dashed line: 50%.
The nationunrankedAP / Coaches
The marketno line yetBetting line at Concordia (MN) · our model 4% Augsburg University
Updated Sat Oct 24 · through week 7
Schedule and results
Augsburg University · 2026 schedule and results2-4Balanced slateAverage opponent win rate 44%.Our rank entering each game: #558 to #569
| Wk | Date | Our rank | Opp rank | Line | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf | Top performers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 5 | #558 | #638 | — | @Wisconsin Stevens Point | L 12-17 | 0-1 | 0-0 | |
| 2 | Bye week | ||||||||
| 3 | Sep 19 | #566 | #620 | — | St. Scholastica | W 30-0 | 1-1 | 1-0 | |
| 4 | Sep 26 | #558 | #438 | — | Saint John's (MN) | L 0-72 | 1-2 | 1-1 | |
| 5 | Oct 3 | #559 | #600 | — | @St. Olaf | L 21-23 | 1-3 | 1-2 | |
| 6 | Oct 10 | #565 | #441 | — | @Bethel (MN) | L 0-63 | 1-4 | 1-3 | |
| 7 | Oct 17 | #569 | #592 | — | Macalester | W 27-17 | 2-4 | 2-3 | |
| 8 | Oct 24 | #569 | #449 | @Concordia (MN) | 2 pm ET4% to win | ||||
| 9 | Oct 31 | #569 | #553 | Carleton | 1 pm ET48% to win | ||||
| 10 | Nov 7 | @Gustavus Adolphus | 1 pm ET11% to win | ||||||
| 11 | Nov 14 | @Hamline | 1 pm ET | ||||||
How to read this table
Win chances are our model for Augsburg University, through 6 games. This week's game comes from the playoff simulation, later games from the rating model. They are estimates and move every week.
Line is the closing point spread for Augsburg University: a minus number means favored. A green check means the team covered it, by the number beside it. A red cross means it fell short by that much.
Ahead
The forecast
The games that decide the season
The games that decide the season
Recent form · last 10 games
Augsburg University has won two of its last five.
3-7 over the last 10, and won the last one.
Streak W1Last 5 · 2-3Last 10 · 3-7
Range of outcomes · Augsburg University · 2026
Range of outcomes · Augsburg University · 2026Augsburg University’s most likely regular season is 3-7. 95% of outcomes land from 2-8 to 4-6.
Regular-season wins: chance of each total, from the game chances above
2 wins 16%; 3 wins 46%; 4 wins 34%; 5 wins 5%What a title game and a playoff run could add
Floor2-10Rebuild year. Below .500.
Base4-8Mid-table finish.
Ceiling7-5Conference title race. Bracket qualifier in range.
Bars are the chance of each regular-season win total, from our model's chance in each game left, through 6 games. Paler bars are the outer 10% at each end. The closed row comes from the season-path projection, which also plays out conference title games and the CFP.
More in this tab
Worth watching
What it is like to watch them2026 · 2-4
Game feel47even gamescombined pts / game8th highest-scoring of 10 in the Minnesota
Heart rate0-2white-knucklein one-score games (2 of 6)2nd most one-score games of 10 in the Minnesota
Margin-17.0competitiveavg scoring margin7th best margin of 10 in the Minnesota
Measured from 6 games · ranks are among Minnesota teams the same season
Team story
The weekly grind
Augsburg is a program in transition—new leadership breaking ground, building a culture from the ground up, one season at a time.
Standard GapA young program stepping into its identity, hiring Black leadership…
Fans here believe augsburg's chip is not against anyone else—it's against its own ceiling, the assumption that a small private program in Minneapolis can't stand shoulder-to-shoulder with the MIAC…
Game day
The experience
Augsburg is a program in transition—new leadership breaking ground, building a culture from the ground up, one season at a time.
Playoff path
Augsburg University sits 7th in the Minnesota Conference and 181st of 245 in the CFB Zeitgeist — outside the at-large picture — the path runs through the conference title.
Minnesota · 2026
| Team | Conf | Overall | Index | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Saint John's (MN) | 5-0 | 6-0 | 71.3 |
| 2 | Concordia (MN) | 4-1 | 5-1 | 61.6 |
| 3 | Bethel (MN) | 4-1 | 4-2 | 57.4 |
| 4 | Carleton | 4-1 | 4-2 | 56.7 |
| 5 | Gustavus Adolphus | 3-2 | 4-2 | 56.5 |
| 6 | Macalester | 2-3 | 3-3 | 48.4 |
| 7 | Augsburg | 2-3 | 2-4 | 41.8 |
| 8 | St. Olaf | 1-4 | 1-5 | 38.0 |
41.8 CFB Zeitgeist#181 of 245 D348.5 strength of schedule
Win the Minnesota Conference for the automatic berth into the 40-team NCAA Division III bracket. Miss it and the path is an at-large bid, selected by NPI — the metric the CFB Index mirrors. Six wins survive the bracket to the Stagg Bowl.
Source: CFB Zeitgeist — conference records + NPI-style rating from 2026 games · the field is 40 teams, NPI-selected
The 2026 season · 2-4
Signature win 30-0 over St. Scholastica; toughest day 0-72 against Saint John's (MN).
Recruiting buzz
Community pulse
No high-engagement r/cfb discussions tracked for this program in the last year.
This page may include content derived from public news sources, social media, and fan communities. We relay these sources as-is — we are not reporting them. Sources may be summarized or quoted imperfectly; for anything that matters, go look at the original source directly. The original source may also be wrong. Text written by our model says so in a line beneath it, and it can get facts wrong. All analysis is editorial opinion, not professional reporting. Data sources · About this site