Next game
vs Saint John’s (MN)
Sat Oct 24 · 2 pm ET
Laird Stadium · series 0-4, lost the last 4
Carleton College 5% to win · our ratings after 6 games
Carleton College
4-2Minnesota · Laird Stadium · 7,500 seats
Last game · Sat Oct 17
W 49-41 at Hamline
Our model gave Carleton College 65% before kickoff
The rest of the season
4 of 4 games under 70%, the hardest: Saint John's (MN) 5%
Win out <1% · expect 0.8 of 4 more wins
Carleton College's chance to win each game left, from our model: Saint John's (MN) 5%, Augsburg 52%, Bethel (MN) 14%, Concordia (MN) 6%Bar height is our model’s chance in each game left. Dashed line: 50%.
The nationunrankedAP / Coaches
The marketno line yetBetting line vs Saint John's (MN) · our model 5% Carleton College
Updated Sat Oct 24 · through week 7
Schedule and results
Carleton College · 2026 schedule and results4-2Balanced slateAverage opponent win rate 41%.Our rank entering each game: #509 to #552
| Wk | Date | Our rank | Opp rank | Line | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf | Top performers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 5 | #509 | #433 | — | @Wisconsin Whitewater | L 7-69 | 0-1 | 0-0 | |
| 2 | Bye week | ||||||||
| 3 | Sep 19 | #512 | #612 | — | @Macalester | W 48-45 | 1-1 | 1-0 | |
| 4 | Sep 26 | #520 | #593 | — | @St. Olaf | W 37-7 | 2-1 | 2-0 | |
| 5 | Oct 3 | #495 | #500 | — | Gustavus Adolphus | L 7-56 | 2-2 | 2-1 | |
| 6 | Oct 10 | #535 | #629 | — | St. Scholastica | W 28-21 | 3-2 | 3-1 | |
| 7 | Oct 17 | #552 | #629 | — | @Hamline | W 49-41 | 4-2 | 4-1 | |
| 8 | Oct 24 | #553 | #415 | Saint John's (MN) | 2 pm ET5% to win | ||||
| 9 | Oct 31 | #553 | #569 | @Augsburg | 1 pm ET52% to win | ||||
| 10 | Nov 7 | Bethel (MN) | 1 pm ET14% to win | ||||||
| 11 | Nov 14 | @Concordia (MN) | 2 pm ET | ||||||
How to read this table
Win chances are our model for Carleton College, through 6 games. This week's game comes from the playoff simulation, later games from the rating model. They are estimates and move every week.
Line is the closing point spread for Carleton College: a minus number means favored. A green check means the team covered it, by the number beside it. A red cross means it fell short by that much.
Ahead
The forecast
The games that decide the season
The games that decide the season
Recent form · last 10 games
Carleton College has won four of its last five.
5-5 over the last 10, and won the last two.
Streak W2Last 5 · 4-1Last 10 · 5-5
Range of outcomes · Carleton College · 2026
Range of outcomes · Carleton College · 2026Carleton College’s most likely regular season is 5-5. 99% of outcomes land from 4-6 to 6-4.
Regular-season wins: chance of each total, from the game chances above
4 wins 37%; 5 wins 50%; 6 wins 12%What a title game and a playoff run could add
Floor6-6Competitive but likely outside bracket contention.
Base8-4Conference title contender. Bracket bid realistic.
Ceiling10-2Deep playoff run. Program-defining year.
Bars are the chance of each regular-season win total, from our model's chance in each game left, through 6 games. Paler bars are the outer 10% at each end. The closed row comes from the season-path projection, which also plays out conference title games and the CFP.
More in this tab
Worth watching
What it is like to watch them2026 · 4-2
Game feel69shootoutscombined pts / game2nd highest-scoring of 10 in the Minnesota
Heart rate3-0white-knucklein one-score games (3 of 6)1st most one-score games of 10 in the Minnesota
Margin-10.5competitiveavg scoring margin6th best margin of 10 in the Minnesota
Measured from 6 games · ranks are among Minnesota teams the same season
Team story
The weekly grind
Carleton is the program where the Goat Trophy matters more than the scoreboard—a school that plays for the love of the game and a rivalry 105 years old.
Title DroughtSince 2025 · 1 yrs
Fans here believe carleton's identity is not about what it lost—it's about what it refuses to be: a program chasing prestige or national rankings. The Goat Trophy IS Carleton football.
Game day
The experience
Carleton is the program where the Goat Trophy matters more than the scoreboard—a school that plays for the love of the game and a rivalry 105 years old.
Playoff path
Carleton College sits 4th in the Minnesota Conference and 79th of 245 in the CFB Zeitgeist — outside the at-large picture — the path runs through the conference title.
Minnesota · 2026
| Team | Conf | Overall | Index | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Saint John's (MN) | 5-0 | 6-0 | 71.3 |
| 2 | Concordia (MN) | 4-1 | 5-1 | 61.6 |
| 3 | Bethel (MN) | 4-1 | 4-2 | 57.4 |
| 4 | Carleton | 4-1 | 4-2 | 56.7 |
| 5 | Gustavus Adolphus | 3-2 | 4-2 | 56.5 |
| 6 | Macalester | 2-3 | 3-3 | 48.4 |
| 7 | Augsburg | 2-3 | 2-4 | 41.8 |
| 8 | St. Olaf | 1-4 | 1-5 | 38.0 |
56.7 CFB Zeitgeist#79 of 245 D348.2 strength of schedule
Win the Minnesota Conference for the automatic berth into the 40-team NCAA Division III bracket. Miss it and the path is an at-large bid, selected by NPI — the metric the CFB Index mirrors. Six wins survive the bracket to the Stagg Bowl.
Source: CFB Zeitgeist — conference records + NPI-style rating from 2026 games · the field is 40 teams, NPI-selected
The 2026 season · 4-2
Signature win 37-7 over St. Olaf; toughest day 7-69 against Wisconsin Whitewater.
Recruiting buzz
Community pulse
No high-engagement r/cfb discussions tracked for this program in the last year.
This page may include content derived from public news sources, social media, and fan communities. We relay these sources as-is — we are not reporting them. Sources may be summarized or quoted imperfectly; for anything that matters, go look at the original source directly. The original source may also be wrong. Text written by our model says so in a line beneath it, and it can get facts wrong. All analysis is editorial opinion, not professional reporting. Data sources · About this site