Next game
vs Hamline
Sat Oct 24 · 2 pm ET
Hollingsworth Field · series 2-0, won the last 2
Gustavus Adolphus College 96% to win · our ratings after 6 games
Gustavus Adolphus College
4-2Minnesota · Hollingsworth Field · 3,000 seats
Last game · Sat Oct 17
W 31-3 at St. Scholastica
Our model gave Gustavus Adolphus College 91% before kickoff
The rest of the season
One real test left: Saint John's (MN) 15%
Win out 11% · expect 2.8 of 4 more wins
Gustavus Adolphus College's chance to win each game left, from our model: Hamline 96%, Saint John's (MN) 15%, Augsburg 89%, Macalester 84%Bar height is our model’s chance in each game left. Dashed line: 50%.
The nationunrankedAP / Coaches
The marketno line yetBetting line vs Hamline · our model 96% Gustavus Adolphus College
Updated Sat Oct 24 · through week 7
Schedule and results
Gustavus Adolphus College · 2026 schedule and results4-2Balanced slateAverage opponent win rate 47%.Our rank entering each game: #494 to #490
| Wk | Date | Our rank | Opp rank | Line | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf | Top performers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 5 | #494 | #464 | — | Central College | W 29-3 | 1-0 | 0-0 | |
| 2 | Bye week | ||||||||
| 3 | Sep 19 | #487 | #435 | — | @Bethel (MN) | L 7-49 | 1-1 | 0-1 | |
| 4 | Sep 26 | #487 | #468 | — | Concordia (MN) | L 9-31 | 1-2 | 0-2 | |
| 5 | Oct 3 | #500 | #495 | — | @Carleton | W 56-7 | 2-2 | 1-2 | |
| 6 | Oct 10 | #493 | #599 | — | St. Olaf | W 37-3 | 3-2 | 2-2 | |
| 7 | Oct 17 | #490 | #626 | — | @St. Scholastica | W 31-3 | 4-2 | 3-2 | |
| 8 | Oct 24 | #490 | #628 | Hamline | 2 pm ET96% to win | ||||
| 9 | Oct 31 | #490 | #415 | @Saint John's (MN) | 2 pm ET15% to win | ||||
| 10 | Nov 7 | Augsburg | 1 pm ET89% to win | ||||||
| 11 | Nov 14 | @Macalester | 1 pm ET | ||||||
How to read this table
Win chances are our model for Gustavus Adolphus College, through 6 games. This week's game comes from the playoff simulation, later games from the rating model. They are estimates and move every week.
Line is the closing point spread for Gustavus Adolphus College: a minus number means favored. A green check means the team covered it, by the number beside it. A red cross means it fell short by that much.
Ahead
The forecast
The games that decide the season
The games that decide the season
Recent form · last 10 games
Gustavus Adolphus College has won three of its last five.
7-3 over the last 10, and won the last three.
Streak W3Last 5 · 3-2Last 10 · 7-3
Range of outcomes · Gustavus Adolphus College · 2026
Range of outcomes · Gustavus Adolphus College · 2026Gustavus Adolphus College’s most likely regular season is 7-3. 98% of outcomes land from 6-4 to 8-2.
Regular-season wins: chance of each total, from the game chances above
5 wins 2%; 6 wins 22%; 7 wins 65%; 8 wins 11%What a title game and a playoff run could add
Floor6-6Competitive but likely outside bracket contention.
Base8-4Conference title contender. Bracket bid realistic.
Ceiling10-2Deep playoff run. Program-defining year.
Bars are the chance of each regular-season win total, from our model's chance in each game left, through 6 games. Paler bars are the outer 10% at each end. The closed row comes from the season-path projection, which also plays out conference title games and the CFP.
More in this tab
Worth watching
What it is like to watch them2026 · 4-2
Game feel44rock fightscombined pts / game10th highest-scoring of 10 in the Minnesota
Heart rate0-0rarely closein one-score games (0 of 6)10th most one-score games of 10 in the Minnesota
Margin+12.2competitiveavg scoring margin4th best margin of 10 in the Minnesota
Measured from 6 games · ranks are among Minnesota teams the same season
Team story
The weekly grind
Gustavus is a program climbing back after decades at the margins—the 2023 MIAC championship game appearance proved it can compete at the top, and 2026 is about proving that wasn't a fluke.
Title DroughtSince 1987 · 39 yrs
Fans here believe gustavus's identity is about finally breaking through—proving to itself and the MIAC that a small school on the edge can become a perennial contender.
Game day
The experience
Gustavus is a program climbing back after decades at the margins—the 2023 MIAC championship game appearance proved it can compete at the top, and 2026 is about proving that wasn't a fluke.
Playoff path
Gustavus Adolphus College sits 5th in the Minnesota Conference and 80th of 245 in the CFB Zeitgeist — outside the at-large picture — the path runs through the conference title.
Minnesota · 2026
| Team | Conf | Overall | Index | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Saint John's (MN) | 5-0 | 6-0 | 71.3 |
| 2 | Concordia (MN) | 4-1 | 5-1 | 61.6 |
| 3 | Bethel (MN) | 4-1 | 4-2 | 57.4 |
| 4 | Carleton | 4-1 | 4-2 | 56.7 |
| 5 | Gustavus Adolphus | 3-2 | 4-2 | 56.5 |
| 6 | Macalester | 2-3 | 3-3 | 48.4 |
| 7 | Augsburg | 2-3 | 2-4 | 41.8 |
| 8 | St. Olaf | 1-4 | 1-5 | 38.0 |
56.5 CFB Zeitgeist#80 of 245 D349.6 strength of schedule1 quality win
Win the Minnesota Conference for the automatic berth into the 40-team NCAA Division III bracket. Miss it and the path is an at-large bid, selected by NPI — the metric the CFB Index mirrors. Six wins survive the bracket to the Stagg Bowl.
Source: CFB Zeitgeist — conference records + NPI-style rating from 2026 games · the field is 40 teams, NPI-selected
The 2026 season · 4-2
Signature win 56-7 over Carleton; toughest day 7-49 against Bethel (MN).
Recruiting buzz
Community pulse
No high-engagement r/cfb discussions tracked for this program in the last year.
This page may include content derived from public news sources, social media, and fan communities. We relay these sources as-is — we are not reporting them. Sources may be summarized or quoted imperfectly; for anything that matters, go look at the original source directly. The original source may also be wrong. Text written by our model says so in a line beneath it, and it can get facts wrong. All analysis is editorial opinion, not professional reporting. Data sources · About this site