Next game
at St. Scholastica
Sat Oct 24 · 2 pm ET
Public Schools Stadium · series 4-0, won the last 4
St. Olaf College 48% to win · our ratings after 6 games
St. Olaf College
1-5Minnesota · Klein Field at Manitou · 3,500 seats
Last game · Sat Oct 17
L 7-82 vs Bethel (MN)
Our model gave St. Olaf College 5% before kickoff
The rest of the season
Underdogs in all 4 games left, best shot: St. Scholastica 48%
Win out <1% · expect 1.1 of 4 more wins
St. Olaf College's chance to win each game left, from our model: St. Scholastica 48%, Macalester 26%, Hamline 33%, Saint John's (MN) <1%Bar height is our model’s chance in each game left. Dashed line: 50%.
The nationunrankedAP / Coaches
The marketno line yetBetting line at St. Scholastica · our model 48% St. Olaf College
Updated Sat Oct 24 · through week 7
Schedule and results
St. Olaf College · 2026 schedule and results1-5Balanced slateAverage opponent win rate 58%.Our rank entering each game: #590 to #610
| Wk | Date | Our rank | Opp rank | Line | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf | Top performers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 5 | #590 | #575 | — | @Loras | L 16-31 | 0-1 | 0-0 | |
| 2 | Sep 12 | #591 | #481 | — | @Concordia (MN) | L 0-51 | 0-2 | 0-1 | |
| 3 | Bye week | ||||||||
| 4 | Sep 26 | #593 | #520 | — | Carleton | L 7-37 | 0-3 | 0-2 | |
| 5 | Oct 3 | #600 | #559 | — | Augsburg | W 23-21 | 1-3 | 1-2 | |
| 6 | Oct 10 | #599 | #493 | — | @Gustavus Adolphus | L 3-37 | 1-4 | 1-3 | |
| 7 | Oct 17 | #610 | #442 | — | Bethel (MN) | L 7-82 | 1-5 | 1-4 | |
| 8 | Oct 24 | #612 | #631 | @St. Scholastica | 2 pm ET48% to win | ||||
| 9 | Oct 31 | #613 | #599 | Macalester | 2 pm ET26% to win | ||||
| 10 | Nov 7 | @Hamline | 2 pm ET33% to win | ||||||
| 11 | Nov 14 | Saint John's (MN) | 7 pm ET | ||||||
How to read this table
Win chances are our model for St. Olaf College, through 6 games. This week's game comes from the playoff simulation, later games from the rating model. They are estimates and move every week.
Line is the closing point spread for St. Olaf College: a minus number means favored. A green check means the team covered it, by the number beside it. A red cross means it fell short by that much.
Ahead
The forecast
The games that decide the season
The games that decide the season
Recent form · last 10 games
St. Olaf College has won one of its last five.
3-7 over the last 10, and lost the last two.
Streak L2Last 5 · 1-4Last 10 · 3-7
Range of outcomes · St. Olaf College · 2026
Range of outcomes · St. Olaf College · 2026St. Olaf College’s most likely regular season is 2-8. 96% of outcomes land from 1-9 to 3-7.
Regular-season wins: chance of each total, from the game chances above
1 wins 25%; 2 wins 45%; 3 wins 25%; 4 wins 4%What a title game and a playoff run could add
Floor1-11Rebuild year. Below .500.
Base2-10Mid-table finish.
Ceiling5-7Conference title race. Bracket qualifier in range.
Bars are the chance of each regular-season win total, from our model's chance in each game left, through 6 games. Paler bars are the outer 10% at each end. The closed row comes from the season-path projection, which also plays out conference title games and the CFP.
More in this tab
Worth watching
What it is like to watch them2026 · 1-5
Game feel52even gamescombined pts / game6th highest-scoring of 10 in the Minnesota
Heart rate1-0some dramain one-score games (1 of 6)7th most one-score games of 10 in the Minnesota
Margin-33.8outgunnedavg scoring margin9th best margin of 10 in the Minnesota
Measured from 6 games · ranks are among Minnesota teams the same season
Team story
The weekly grind
St. Olaf is a program defined by one rivalry—the Goat Trophy against Carleton is everything, and the 2025 loss of it still stings.
Title DroughtSince 2025 · 1 yrs
Fans here believe st. Olaf's identity is entirely wrapped in Carleton. The rivalry is not a secondary competition; it IS the season. Everything else is preseason.
Game day
The experience
St. Olaf is a program defined by one rivalry—the Goat Trophy against Carleton is everything, and the 2025 loss of it still stings.
Playoff path
St. Olaf College sits 8th in the Minnesota Conference and 203rd of 245 in the CFB Zeitgeist — outside the at-large picture — the path runs through the conference title.
Minnesota · 2026
| Team | Conf | Overall | Index | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Saint John's (MN) | 5-0 | 6-0 | 71.3 |
| 2 | Concordia (MN) | 4-1 | 5-1 | 61.6 |
| 3 | Bethel (MN) | 4-1 | 4-2 | 57.4 |
| 4 | Carleton | 4-1 | 4-2 | 56.7 |
| 5 | Gustavus Adolphus | 3-2 | 4-2 | 56.5 |
| 6 | Macalester | 2-3 | 3-3 | 48.4 |
| 7 | Augsburg | 2-3 | 2-4 | 41.8 |
| 8 | St. Olaf | 1-4 | 1-5 | 38.0 |
38.0 CFB Zeitgeist#203 of 245 D353.1 strength of schedule
Win the Minnesota Conference for the automatic berth into the 40-team NCAA Division III bracket. Miss it and the path is an at-large bid, selected by NPI — the metric the CFB Index mirrors. Six wins survive the bracket to the Stagg Bowl.
Source: CFB Zeitgeist — conference records + NPI-style rating from 2026 games · the field is 40 teams, NPI-selected
The 2026 season · 1-5
Signature win 23-21 over Augsburg; toughest day 7-82 against Bethel (MN).
Recruiting buzz
Community pulse
No high-engagement r/cfb discussions tracked for this program in the last year.
This page may include content derived from public news sources, social media, and fan communities. We relay these sources as-is — we are not reporting them. Sources may be summarized or quoted imperfectly; for anything that matters, go look at the original source directly. The original source may also be wrong. Text written by our model says so in a line beneath it, and it can get facts wrong. All analysis is editorial opinion, not professional reporting. Data sources · About this site