Next game
vs Arkansas Tech
Sat Oct 24 · 2 pm ET
Ruggles Field at Carpenter-Haygood Stadium · series 4-1, last win 2024
Henderson State 85% to win · our ratings after 7 games
Henderson State
6-1Great American · Ruggles Field at Carpenter-Haygood Stadium · 9,600 seats
Last game · Sat Oct 17
L 16-46 at Harding
Our model gave Henderson State 25% before kickoff
The rest of the season
Three real tests left: Ouachita Baptist 40%, Southeastern Oklahoma State 54%, East Central 57%
Win out 11% · expect 2.4 of 4 more wins
Henderson State's chance to win each game left, from our model: Arkansas Tech 85%, Southeastern Oklahoma State 54%, East Central 57%, Ouachita Baptist 40%Bar height is our model’s chance in each game left. Dashed line: 50%.
The nationunrankedAP / Coaches
The marketno line yetBetting line vs Arkansas Tech · our model 85% Henderson State
Updated Sat Oct 24 · through week 7
Schedule and results
Henderson State · 2026 schedule and results6-1Soft slateAverage opponent win rate 33%.Our rank entering each game: #326 to #321
| Wk | Date | Our rank | Opp rank | Line | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf | Top performers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 3 | #326 | #381 | — | @Southern Nazarene | W 57-21 | 1-0 | 1-0 | |
| 2 | Sep 12 | #330 | #397 | — | Oklahoma Baptist | W 66-9 | 2-0 | 2-0 | |
| 3 | Sep 19 | #332 | #394 | — | Arkansas Monticello | W 35-24 | 3-0 | 3-0 | |
| 4 | Sep 26 | #331 | #357 | — | @Southern Arkansas | W 20-7 | 4-0 | 4-0 | |
| 5 | Oct 3 | #330 | #356 | — | Southwestern Oklahoma State | W 38-33 | 5-0 | 5-0 | |
| 6 | Oct 10 | #329 | #399 | — | @Northwestern (OK) | W 34-7 | 6-0 | 6-0 | |
| 7 | Oct 17 | #321 | #276 | — | @Harding | L 16-46 | 6-1 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | Oct 24 | #326 | #363 | Arkansas Tech | 2 pm ET85% to win | ||||
| 9 | Oct 31 | #327 | #334 | Southeastern Oklahoma State | 2 pm ET54% to win | ||||
| 10 | Nov 7 | @East Central | 3 pm ET57% to win | ||||||
| 11 | Nov 14 | Ouachita Baptist | 2 pm ET |
How to read this table
Win chances are our model for Henderson State, through 7 games. This week's game comes from the playoff simulation, later games from the rating model. They are estimates and move every week.
Line is the closing point spread for Henderson State: a minus number means favored. A green check means the team covered it, by the number beside it. A red cross means it fell short by that much.
Ahead
The forecast
The games that decide the season
The games that decide the season
Recent form · last 10 games
Henderson State has won four of its last five.
9-1 over the last 10, and lost the last one.
Streak L1Last 5 · 4-1Last 10 · 9-1
Range of outcomes · Henderson State · 2026
Range of outcomes · Henderson State · 2026Henderson State’s most likely regular season is 8-3. 98% of outcomes land from 7-4 to 10-1.
Regular-season wins: chance of each total, from the game chances above
6 wins 2%; 7 wins 16%; 8 wins 38%; 9 wins 34%; 10 wins 11%What a title game and a playoff run could add
Floor8-4Competitive but likely outside bracket contention.
Base10-2Conference title contender. Bracket bid realistic.
Ceiling11-1Deep playoff run. Program-defining year.
Bars are the chance of each regular-season win total, from our model's chance in each game left, through 7 games. Paler bars are the outer 10% at each end. The closed row comes from the season-path projection, which also plays out conference title games and the CFP.
More in this tab
Worth watching
What it is like to watch them2026 · 6-1
Game feel59even gamescombined pts / game6th highest-scoring of 12 in the Great American
Heart rate1-0rarely closein one-score games (1 of 7)10th most one-score games of 12 in the Great American
Margin+17.0comfortableavg scoring margin2nd best margin of 12 in the Great American
Measured from 7 games · ranks are among Great American teams the same season
Team story
The weekly grind
Henderson State is the D2 program defined by the Battle of the Ravine—a 131-year-old rivalry where the Reddies walk five minutes across Route 67 to play their neighbors, Ouachita Baptist, for pride that money can't buy.
Title DroughtSince 2011 · 15 yrs
Fans here believe henderson State's chip is not anger—it's ancient pride. The Reddies have been beating Ouachita since 1895, and that record matters in Arkadelphia more than any national ranking.
Game day
The experience
Henderson State is the D2 program defined by the Battle of the Ravine—a 131-year-old rivalry where the Reddies walk five minutes across Route 67 to play their neighbors, Ouachita Baptist, for pride that money can't buy.
Recruiting buzz
Community pulse
No high-engagement r/cfb discussions tracked for this program in the last year.
This page may include content derived from public news sources, social media, and fan communities. We relay these sources as-is — we are not reporting them. Sources may be summarized or quoted imperfectly; for anything that matters, go look at the original source directly. The original source may also be wrong. Text written by our model says so in a line beneath it, and it can get facts wrong. All analysis is editorial opinion, not professional reporting. Data sources · About this site