Next game
vs Northwestern (OK)
Sat Oct 24 · 4 pm ET
Southern Nazarene University Football Stadium · series 2-2, lost the last 2
Southern Nazarene 67% to win · our ratings after 7 games
Southern Nazarene
1-5-1Great American · Southern Nazarene University Football Stadium · 2,500 seats
Last game · Sat Oct 17
L 0-0 at Southwestern Oklahoma State
Our model gave Southern Nazarene 12% before kickoff
The rest of the season
4 of 4 games under 70%, the hardest: Harding 1%
Win out <1% · expect 1.4 of 4 more wins
Southern Nazarene's chance to win each game left, from our model: Northwestern (OK) 67%, Arkansas Tech 40%, Harding 1%, Oklahoma Baptist 29%Bar height is our model’s chance in each game left. Dashed line: 50%.
The nationunrankedAP / Coaches
The marketno line yetBetting line vs Northwestern (OK) · our model 67% Southern Nazarene
Updated Sat Oct 24 · through week 7
Schedule and results
Southern Nazarene · 2026 schedule and results1-5-1Balanced slateAverage opponent win rate 55%.Our rank entering each game: #381 to #393
| Wk | Date | Our rank | Opp rank | Line | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf | Top performers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 3 | #381 | #326 | — | Henderson State | L 21-57 | 0-1 | 0-1 | |
| 2 | Sep 12 | #388 | #355 | — | @Southern Arkansas | L 21-27 | 0-2 | 0-2 | |
| 3 | Sep 19 | #382 | #348 | — | East Central | L 24-35 | 0-3 | 0-3 | |
| 4 | Sep 26 | #386 | #365 | — | @Southeastern Oklahoma State | L 0-35 | 0-4 | 0-4 | |
| 5 | Oct 3 | #389 | #386 | — | Arkansas Monticello | W 40-34 | 1-4 | 1-4 | |
| 6 | Oct 10 | #389 | #306 | — | @Ouachita Baptist | L 14-49 | 1-5 | 1-5 | |
| 7 | Oct 17 | #393 | #346 | — | @Southwestern Oklahoma State | T 0-0 | 1-5-1 | 1-5 | |
| 8 | Oct 24 | #380 | #396 | Northwestern (OK) | 4 pm ET67% to win | ||||
| 9 | Oct 31 | #379 | #363 | Arkansas Tech | 3 pm ET40% to win | ||||
| 10 | Nov 7 | @Harding | 4 pm ET1% to win | ||||||
| 11 | Nov 14 | @Oklahoma Baptist | 1 pm ET |
How to read this table
Win chances are our model for Southern Nazarene, through 7 games. This week's game comes from the playoff simulation, later games from the rating model. They are estimates and move every week.
Line is the closing point spread for Southern Nazarene: a minus number means favored. A green check means the team covered it, by the number beside it. A red cross means it fell short by that much.
Ahead
The forecast
The games that decide the season
The games that decide the season
Recent form · last 10 games
Southern Nazarene has won one of its last five.
2-7 over the last 10, and tied the last one.
Streak T1Last 5 · 1-3Last 10 · 2-7
Range of outcomes · Southern Nazarene · 2026
Range of outcomes · Southern Nazarene · 2026Southern Nazarene’s most likely regular season is 2-8. 92% of outcomes land from 1-9 to 3-7.
Regular-season wins: chance of each total, from the game chances above
1 wins 14%; 2 wins 43%; 3 wins 35%; 4 wins 8%What a title game and a playoff run could add
Floor1-11Rebuild year. Below .500.
Base2-10Mid-table finish.
Ceiling5-7Conference title race. Bracket qualifier in range.
Bars are the chance of each regular-season win total, from our model's chance in each game left, through 6 games. Paler bars are the outer 10% at each end. The closed row comes from the season-path projection, which also plays out conference title games and the CFP.
More in this tab
Worth watching
What it is like to watch them2026 · 1-5
Game feel51rock fightscombined pts / game10th highest-scoring of 12 in the Great American
Heart rate1-1some dramain one-score games (2 of 7)5th most one-score games of 12 in the Great American
Margin-16.7outgunnedavg scoring margin11th best margin of 12 in the Great American
Measured from 7 games · ranks are among Great American teams the same season
Team story
The weekly grind
Southern Nazarene is the Crimson Storm—a small D2 program rooted in the Nazarene faith and the community of Bethany, Oklahoma, where the game matters because the church matters.
Title DroughtSince 1970 · 56 yrs
Fans here believe southern Nazarene has no chip. The Crimson Storm play because the university is rooted in faith, and because the game is part of the community's identity.
Game day
The experience
Southern Nazarene is the Crimson Storm—a small D2 program rooted in the Nazarene faith and the community of Bethany, Oklahoma, where the game matters because the church matters.
Recruiting buzz
Community pulse
No high-engagement r/cfb discussions tracked for this program in the last year.
This page may include content derived from public news sources, social media, and fan communities. We relay these sources as-is — we are not reporting them. Sources may be summarized or quoted imperfectly; for anything that matters, go look at the original source directly. The original source may also be wrong. Text written by our model says so in a line beneath it, and it can get facts wrong. All analysis is editorial opinion, not professional reporting. Data sources · About this site