Next game
vs Ouachita Baptist
Sat Oct 24 · 3:30 pm ET
Wilkins Stadium · series 0-5, lost the last 5
Southern Arkansas 7% to win · our ratings after 7 games
Southern Arkansas
2-5Great American · Wilkins Stadium · 6,000 seats
Last game · Sat Oct 17
L 27-37 at Arkansas Tech
Our model gave Southern Arkansas 37% before kickoff
The rest of the season
4 of 4 games under 70%, the hardest: Ouachita Baptist 7%
Win out <1% · expect 0.9 of 4 more wins
Southern Arkansas's chance to win each game left, from our model: Ouachita Baptist 7%, East Central 22%, Southeastern Oklahoma State 8%, Arkansas Monticello 52%Bar height is our model’s chance in each game left. Dashed line: 50%.
The nationunrankedAP / Coaches
The marketno line yetBetting line vs Ouachita Baptist · our model 7% Southern Arkansas
Updated Sat Oct 24 · through week 7
Schedule and results
Southern Arkansas · 2026 schedule and results2-5Balanced slateAverage opponent win rate 45%.Our rank entering each game: #342 to #363
| Wk | Date | Our rank | Opp rank | Line | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf | Top performers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 3 | #342 | #397 | — | @Oklahoma Baptist | L 20-38 | 0-1 | 0-1 | |
| 2 | Sep 12 | #355 | #388 | — | Southern Nazarene | W 27-21 | 1-1 | 1-1 | |
| 3 | Sep 19 | #360 | #270 | — | @Harding | L 21-52 | 1-2 | 1-2 | |
| 4 | Sep 26 | #357 | #331 | — | Henderson State | L 7-20 | 1-3 | 1-3 | |
| 5 | Oct 3 | #362 | #398 | — | Northwestern (OK) | W 30-27 | 2-3 | 2-3 | |
| 6 | Oct 10 | #363 | #349 | — | @Southwestern Oklahoma State | L 18-28 | 2-4 | 2-4 | |
| 7 | Oct 17 | #363 | #362 | — | @Arkansas Tech | L 27-37 | 2-5 | 2-5 | |
| 8 | Oct 24 | #369 | #309 | Ouachita Baptist | 3:30 pm ET7% to win | ||||
| 9 | Oct 31 | #369 | #341 | East Central | 3 pm ET22% to win | ||||
| 10 | Nov 7 | @Southeastern Oklahoma State | 3 pm ET8% to win | ||||||
| 11 | Nov 14 | Arkansas Monticello (N) | 3 pm ET |
How to read this table
Win chances are our model for Southern Arkansas, through 7 games. This week's game comes from the playoff simulation, later games from the rating model. They are estimates and move every week.
Line is the closing point spread for Southern Arkansas: a minus number means favored. A green check means the team covered it, by the number beside it. A red cross means it fell short by that much.
Ahead
The forecast
The games that decide the season
The games that decide the season
Recent form · last 10 games
Southern Arkansas has won one of its last five.
4-6 over the last 10, and lost the last two.
Streak L2Last 5 · 1-4Last 10 · 4-6
Range of outcomes · Southern Arkansas · 2026
Range of outcomes · Southern Arkansas · 2026Southern Arkansas’ most likely regular season is 3-8. 98% of outcomes land from 2-9 to 4-7.
Regular-season wins: chance of each total, from the game chances above
2 wins 32%; 3 wins 49%; 4 wins 17%; 5 wins 2%What a title game and a playoff run could add
Floor2-10Rebuild year. Below .500.
Base3-9Mid-table finish.
Ceiling6-6Conference title race. Bracket qualifier in range.
Bars are the chance of each regular-season win total, from our model's chance in each game left, through 7 games. Paler bars are the outer 10% at each end. The closed row comes from the season-path projection, which also plays out conference title games and the CFP.
More in this tab
Worth watching
What it is like to watch them2026 · 2-5
Game feel53even gamescombined pts / game9th highest-scoring of 12 in the Great American
Heart rate2-0some dramain one-score games (2 of 7)9th most one-score games of 12 in the Great American
Margin-10.4competitiveavg scoring margin9th best margin of 12 in the Great American
Measured from 7 games · ranks are among Great American teams the same season
Team story
The weekly grind
Southern Arkansas is the Mulerider dynasty in ascent—a program that has quietly built 32 wins in four years under Brad Smiley and won the 2025 Battle of the Timberlands 49-10 over its ancient rival.
Title DroughtSince 2023 · 3 yrs
Fans here believe southern Arkansas has no external enemy. The chip is against the program's own history—the desire to transform from steady-state mediocrity into genuine contender.
Game day
The experience
Southern Arkansas is the Mulerider dynasty in ascent—a program that has quietly built 32 wins in four years under Brad Smiley and won the 2025 Battle of the Timberlands 49-10 over its ancient rival.
Recruiting buzz
Community pulse
No high-engagement r/cfb discussions tracked for this program in the last year.
This page may include content derived from public news sources, social media, and fan communities. We relay these sources as-is — we are not reporting them. Sources may be summarized or quoted imperfectly; for anything that matters, go look at the original source directly. The original source may also be wrong. Text written by our model says so in a line beneath it, and it can get facts wrong. All analysis is editorial opinion, not professional reporting. Data sources · About this site