Iowa 20-19 Michigan (Sep 26, 2026) Final Score

Team pages: Iowa · Michigan

No. 17 Iowa4-020

No. 18 Michigan3-119Final

Sat, Sep 26 · Michigan Stadium, Ann Arbor, Mich. · Crowd 111,126

No. 17 Iowa beat No. 18 Michigan 20-19 after its win chance fell to 8%.

Winners have been down to 8% or less in about 1 of every 14 games since 2018.

We had Iowa favored. It won.

Next: Iowa lost to Ohio State 31-14, Sat Oct 3

Next: Michigan lost to Minnesota 20-14, Sat Oct 3

Top comment in the game thread

If you get forced out, can you just hang out and take your sweet time going back in? Dude was just lurking until he saw the ball coming. Serious question, I don't know this rule…

Q4 14:02 · r/CFB game thread · Sat, Sep 26

How it swung

The turning point: Brown 16-yd TD pass to Vander Zee, Iowa goes ahead 20-19 (Q4, 0:00). Iowa went from 9% to 100% to win.

Before kickoff, our ratings gave Iowa a 52% chance, and the closing betting line (Iowa was a 4.5-point underdog) put it at 36%.

Kickoff return TD

Iowa · Q1 1:44

FinalIowa 20-19 MichiganIowa wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.

The two plays that swung it

1Q1 1:44Special teamsJackson 99-yd kickoff return TD, ties it 7-7Iowa 15% → 32% (+17)
2Q4 0:00Brown 16-yd TD pass to Vander Zee, Iowa goes ahead 20-19Iowa 9% → 100% (+91)

The two plays that swung it

1Q1 1:44Special teamsJackson 99-yd kickoff return TD, ties it 7-7Michigan 85% → 68% (−17)
2Q4 0:00Brown 16-yd TD pass to Vander Zee, Iowa goes ahead 20-19Michigan 91% → 0% (−91)

What fans said, play by play

The line in bold above each quote is written by our model from the thread’s comments and the play-by-play.

Q1 4:41A receiver made an acrobatic catch.Marsh is just a circus catch machine. Incredible skill.r/CFB game thread
Q2 12:58Fans argue Iowa runner was down, not a fumble, on kickoff returnWhy are we not kicking it into the endzone?r/CFB game threadWHY ON EARTH WOULD YOU EVEN STILL BE KICKING TO THEIR RETURNER ANYWAY!!!??r/CFB game thread
Q4 14:02Michigan fans argue officials ruled forced out on Brown pass to Vander Zee touchdownBest time for Iowa to score is while Michigan is still trying to figure out wtf happened last play. Tip of the cap.r/CFB game threadQuoted at the top of the page.
Q4 2:33Fans rip Kirk Ferentz for cowardly 51-yard field goal attempt instead of going for itKirk Ferentz call if I’ve ever seen one. Down 5, less than 3 to go, 4th and 6 and you send a kicker out there for a long field goal.r/CFB game thread

Iowa’s chance to win after every play.

How to read this chart

Starts from the pregame line (Michigan -4.5), at 32% for Iowa (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. Outlined diamonds mark rare plays. Under the scores, r/CFB comments per minute from fans with a Michigan or Iowa flair (3,349 and 1,517); both sides share one scale, regulation only. A gold diamond marks a play fans were reacting to.

Watch the plays

The bar and the arrow show Iowa’s chance to win after each play; the logo is the team the play helped.

Every drive

Iowa scored on 3 of its 11 drives; Michigan on 4 of its 10.

Iowa’s drives are teal, Michigan’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.

“This erection might last longer than 4 hours.”

An Iowa fan

When fans got loud

Roaring

The final stretch is when fans got loud.

Jump to the loudest stretch

The jump was roaring; the crowd was firestorm.

Two crowds, one game

The words each side’s fans used far more than the other side, from the game thread.

Iowa fans

ferentz“I love how proud Ferentz is of his guys after a win. He loves those kids.”

three“Was the right call. Now let’s run three bad plays and punt it back to them”

Michigan fans

penalties“Right penalties for 75 yards. Has to be one of the of the most undisciplined teams in recent memory.”

marsh“Underwood, Hiter, Marsh and Buchanan are all sophomores or younger *Salivates*”

penalty“Wow. A procedure penalty on special teams for Iowa?! Has that ever happened before?”

Both sets of fans kept coming back to: ball, punt, now, run.

The winner fell to 8%.

What it cost

Michigan’s chance to make the playoff fell from 24% to 15%.

Make the playoff

Iowa · won4% → ▲7%

Michigan · lost24% → ▼15%

Win the conference

Iowa · won2% → ▲3%

Michigan · lost6% → ▼3%

Before the game (September 25, 2026) → after this result, in our model.

Box score

Iowa 20, Michigan 19

Iowa covered +4.5 by 5.5. The total, 39, stayed under 39.5.

Team totals	Iowa	Michigan
Total yards	285	429
Passing	21 of 35, 227 yds	17 of 28, 276 yds
Rushing	24 for 58 yds	40 for 153 yds
First downs	16	21
Third down	6 of 14	5 of 13
Fourth down	0 of 0	0 of 1
Turnovers	0	1
Penalties	5 for 34 yds	8 for 75 yds
Time of possession	25:31	34:29

Iowa leaders

Passing Hank Brown 21 of 35, 227 yds, 2 TD
Rushing Kamari Moulton 13 for 44 yds; Braeden Jackson 4 for 13 yds
Receiving Reece Vander Zee 5 for 66 yds, 2 TD; Tony Diaz 3 for 46 yds

Michigan leaders

Passing Bryce Underwood 17 of 28, 276 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT
Rushing Jordan Marshall 11 for 59 yds; Savion Hiter 14 for 53 yds
Receiving JJ Buchanan 5 for 130 yds, 2 TD; Andrew Marsh 7 for 106 yds

No rain through the game

no rain recorded

September game-day temperatures at Michigan Stadium

Drag along the chart, or step through the game.

Fourth quarter, 0:00 left7:01 p.m.

Iowa 20, Michigan 19 · Michigan 0% to win

Brown 16-yd TD pass to Vander Zee, Iowa goes ahead 20-19

Measured at Ann Arbor airport, 2.9 miles away, and Detroit/willow airport, 11 miles away. Rain is NOAA's radar-and-gauge estimate at the stadium and wind is an airport reading; neither is measured on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet; rain radar from NOAA MRMS, through Iowa State University. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.

Before kickoff

Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.

Recent games

Last three games

Iowa · 3-0

Rated 13th in our preseason ratings, 19th now.

Three straight wins — but still hunting a ranked opponent.

W 55-0 vs Northern Iowa #160 of 668

won by 55 as a 37.5-point favorite

W 16-13 vs Iowa State #138 of 668

won by 3 as a 14-point favorite

W 40-0 vs Northern Illinois #95 of 668

won by 40 as a 31.5-point favorite

Last three games

Michigan · 3-0

Rated 19th in our preseason ratings, 21st now.

Three straight wins, including a 7-point win over Oklahoma as a 5.5-point underdog.

W 52-17 vs UTEP #176 of 668

won by 35 as a 34.5-point favorite

W 17-10 vs OklahomaTop 25 #15 of 668

won by 7 as a 5.5-point underdog

W 13-12 vs Western Michigan #21 of 668

won by 1 as a 27.5-point favorite

Week by week

Michigan

Wk 1Wvs Western Michigan13-12
Wk 2Wvs Oklahoma17-10
Wk 3Wvs UTEP52-17

Iowa

Wk 1Wvs Northern Illinois40-0
Wk 2Wvs Iowa State16-13
Wk 3Wvs Northern Iowa55-0

Power rating by week

Iowa is rated 0.4 points ahead as of week 3. Our power rating by week; higher is better.

Matchups

Biggest mismatch: Michigan’s EPA/play against Iowa, 50 points

Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.

Michigan’s EPA/play against Iowa’s defense
Michigan offense, 32nd percentile · Iowa defense, 82nd
Michigan’s rushing EPA against Iowa’s defense
Michigan offense, 54th percentile · Iowa defense, 97th
Michigan’s explosive plays against Iowa’s defense
Michigan offense, 42nd percentile · Iowa defense, 79th

Season profile, all the rows

Season profile

IowaMichigan

EPA/play, offense

EPA/play, defense

Success rate, offense

Success rate, defense

Explosive-play rate, offense

Explosive-play rate, defense

Rush EPA, offense

Rush EPA, defense

Pass EPA, offense

Pass EPA, defense

The series

Michigan leads the series 45-15-4

64 meetings since 1900 · Michigan has won the last 4

2023 · neutral siteMichigan 26-0
2022Michigan 27-14
2021 · neutral siteMichigan 42-3
2019Michigan 10-3
2016Iowa 14-13

Each line is Michigan’s chance to win through that meeting. Older meetings have no play by play, so no line.

Line, fans and home field

The betting line, and the fans

Iowa fans are feeling it about like the typical fanbase this week (45th among FBS fanbases), and the other side is no happier.

Michigan favored by 4.5 · Total 39.5

How games like this usually go

Michigan by 4.5, on the usual path until the final play

Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game

The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 377 games since 2025 with a favorite of 3.5 to 7.5 points.

The market

The books’ cut: 4.3%, the margin built into the odds

Home field

Michigan is worth +4.2 points (±4.1) more at home than on the road since 2018 — middle of FBS, 53rd percentile.

86% at home, 68% on the road against FBS opponents (50-8 home, 25-12 away).

Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads -1.2 at home vs. away over 95 games — inside the ±6.3 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.

The visitors travel about 403 miles to get here.

Last meeting in our History pages

Michigan 26, Iowa 0Big Ten Championship · Dec 2, 2023

Our History pages cover 3 of their meetings since 2016.

Where next

Conference standings

Place in the conference, then conference record.

Michigan12th0-0
Iowa8th0-0

Full Big Ten standings

No. 17 Iowa beats No. 18 Michigan 20-19