Minnesota 20-14 Michigan (Oct 3, 2026) Final Score

Team pages: Michigan · Minnesota

Michigan3-214

Minnesota4-120Final

Sat, Oct 3 · Huntington Bank Stadium, Minneapolis, Minn. · Crowd 51,012

Minnesota beat No. 24 Michigan 20-14 as a 6.5-point underdog.

We had Michigan favored. Minnesota won.

Next: Michigan beat Penn State 21-18, Sat Oct 17

Next: Minnesota lost to Purdue 41-13, Sat Oct 10

Top comment in the game thread

Minnesota trolling Michigan by playing Mr. Brightside.

Q4 0:30 · r/CFB game thread · Sat, Oct 3

How it swung

The turning point: Lindsey intercepted by Staehling at the Michigan 21 and returned for a TD (Q2, 2:48). Minnesota went from 46% to 19% to win.

Before kickoff, our ratings gave Minnesota a 51% chance, and the closing betting line (Minnesota was a 6.5-point underdog) put it at 30%.

Pick-six

Michigan · Q2 2:48

FinalMinnesota 20-14 MichiganMinnesota wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.

The two plays that swung it

1Q2 2:48InterceptionLindsey intercepted by Staehling at the Michigan 21 and returned for a TDMinnesota 46% → 19% (−27)
2Q4 4:05Underwood sacked for a 10-yd lossMinnesota 62% → 81% (+19)

The two plays that swung it

1Q2 2:48InterceptionLindsey intercepted by Staehling at the Michigan 21 and returned for a TDMichigan 54% → 81% (+27)
2Q4 4:05Underwood sacked for a 10-yd lossMichigan 38% → 19% (−19)

What fans said, play by play

The line in bold above each quote is written by our model from the thread’s comments and the play-by-play.

Q2 13:46The running back went for a block instead of diving on the ball during a potential fumble.What was marsh doing? Throwing a block instead of picking up the ball?? It’s a touchdown but that was weird.r/CFB game thread
Q3 4:59Underwood throws interception to West as fans mock commercialsUnderwood has committed the largest fraud scheme since Ponzir/CFB game thread
Q4 14:51Fans criticize Underwood's interception and Minnesota's decision to kick the extra pointYou can tell Minny has no fear of the Michigan offense by the fact they kicked the extra point instead of going for 2r/CFB game thread
Q4 0:32Fans mock Michigan for calling timeouts after Underwood's fourth-down turnoverCalling timeouts here is so desperate lolr/CFB game thread
Q4 0:30Minnesota fans storm field as Mr. Brightside plays after beating MichiganQuoted at the top of the page.Gophers PA trolling Michigan with Mr. Brightside.r/CFB game thread

Minnesota’s chance to win after every play.

How to read this chart

Starts from the pregame line (Michigan -6.5), at 38% for Minnesota (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. Outlined diamonds mark rare plays. Under the scores, r/CFB comments per minute from fans with a Minnesota or Michigan flair (562 and 2,526); both sides share one scale, regulation only. A gold diamond marks a play fans were reacting to.

Watch the plays

The bar and the arrow show Minnesota’s chance to win after each play; the logo is the team the play helped.

Every drive

Minnesota scored on 4 of its 12 drives; Michigan on 1 of its 10.

Minnesota’s drives are teal, Michigan’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.

From Michigan’s side

Michigan’s best moment: Lindsey intercepted by Staehling at the Michigan 21 and returned for a TD (Q2 2:48). It lifted Michigan’s win chance by 27 points.

How Michigan fans took it: “LOL MINNESOTA PLAYING MR BRIGHTSIDE!! That is next level trolling, I love it. 😂😂” r/CFB game thread

“Dude Minnesotas QB absolutely had a chance to shove Michigan out of bounds and he just ran right to the bench”

A Michigan fan

When fans got loud

Loud

The final stretch is when fans got loud.

Jump to the loudest stretch

The jump was loud; the crowd was loud.

Two crowds, one game

The words each side’s fans used far more than the other side, from the game thread.

Minnesota fans

jug“Will to be hard to split screen for this one. Super pumped for a jug game. But there are commercials. Cowbells are in trouble. Pick six for Kamario.”

lindsey“Pushing the pile. Lineman immediately almost kicks Lindsey in the nuts. That could have been bad haha”

timeouts“Whittingham following the Michigan tradition of being completely insufferable by calling these timeouts”

boat“Was about to go on the lake, but I only have a 16.5' boat and it's just a touch too windy.”

Michigan fans

carr“I think it's funny people want Tommy Carr because he threw a TD against UTEP's backups”

Both sets of fans kept coming back to: run, ball, now, field.

Too close to call on 52% of plays.

What it cost

Michigan’s chance to make the playoff fell from 9% to 4%.

Make the playoff

Michigan · lost9% → ▼4%

Minnesota · won2% → ▲3%

Win the conference

Michigan · lost2% → ▼1%

Minnesota · won1% → ▲2%

Before the game (October 2, 2026) → after this result, in our model.

Box score

Minnesota 20, Michigan 14

Minnesota covered +6.5 by 12.5. The total, 34, stayed under 41.5.

Team totals	Michigan	Minnesota
Total yards	180	262
Passing	10 of 21, 101 yds	17 of 25, 136 yds
Rushing	28 for 79 yds	40 for 126 yds
First downs	11	17
Third down	3 of 10	4 of 14
Fourth down	0 of 1	1 of 1
Turnovers	3	2
Penalties	6 for 43 yds	1 for 5 yds
Time of possession	22:24	37:36

Michigan leaders

Passing Bryce Underwood 10 of 21, 101 yds, 2 INT
Rushing Jordan Marshall 10 for 50 yds, 1 TD; Bryce Underwood 10 for 20 yds
Receiving JJ Buchanan 4 for 50 yds; Andrew Marsh 3 for 29 yds

Minnesota leaders

Passing Drake Lindsey 17 of 25, 136 yds, 1 TD, 2 INT
Rushing TJ Thomas Jr. 12 for 56 yds; Darius Taylor 18 for 32 yds, 1 TD
Receiving Noah Jennings 7 for 70 yds; Darius Taylor 3 for 32 yds, 1 TD

No rain through the game

62° at kickoff · no rain recorded

The usual here around this date is 60°, with about 7 in 10 games between 47° and 72°.

October game-day temperatures at Huntington Bank Stadium

Drag along the chart, or step through the game.

Second quarter, 2:48 left12:21 p.m.

Michigan 14, Minnesota 7 · Minnesota 19% to win

no rain · 66°

Lindsey intercepted by Staehling at the Michigan 21 and returned for a TD

Measured at Minneapolis airport, 6.3 miles away. Rain is NOAA's radar-and-gauge estimate at the stadium and wind is an airport reading; neither is measured on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet; rain radar from NOAA MRMS, through Iowa State University. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.

Before kickoff

Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.

Recent games

Last 4 games

Michigan · 3-1

Rated 19th in our preseason ratings, 20th now.

3-1 in its last 4, including a 7-point win over Oklahoma as a 5.5-point underdog.

L 19-20 vs IowaTop 25 #16 of 668

lost by 1 as a 4.5-point favorite

W 52-17 vs UTEP #176 of 668

won by 35 as a 34.5-point favorite

W 17-10 vs OklahomaTop 25 #15 of 668

won by 7 as a 5.5-point underdog

W 13-12 vs Western Michigan #21 of 668

won by 1 as a 27.5-point favorite

Last 4 games

Minnesota · 3-1

Rated 29th in our preseason ratings, 43rd now, down 14 spots.

3-1 in its last 4, capped by a 3-point win over Washington as a 12.5-point underdog.

W 27-24 @ WashingtonTop 25 #29 of 668

won by 3 as a 12.5-point underdog

W 41-7 vs Akron #67 of 668

won by 34 as a 22.5-point favorite

L 13-38 vs Mississippi StateTop 25 #106 of 668

lost by 25 as a 1.5-point underdog

W 59-7 vs Eastern Illinois #200 of 668

won by 52 as a 42.5-point favorite

Week by week

Minnesota

Wk 1Wvs Eastern Illinois59-7
Wk 2Lvs Mississippi State13-38
Wk 3Wvs Akron41-7
Wk 4Wat Washington27-24

Michigan

Wk 1Wvs Western Michigan13-12
Wk 2Wvs Oklahoma17-10
Wk 3Wvs UTEP52-17
Wk 4Lvs Iowa19-20

Power rating by week

Michigan is rated 3.4 points ahead as of week 4. Our power rating by week; higher is better.

Matchups

Biggest mismatch: Minnesota’s rushing EPA against Michigan, 91 points

Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.

Minnesota’s EPA/play against Michigan’s defense
Minnesota offense, 21st percentile · Michigan defense, 97th
Minnesota’s rushing EPA against Michigan’s defense
Minnesota offense, 3rd percentile · Michigan defense, 94th
Minnesota’s explosive plays against Michigan’s defense
Minnesota offense, 26th percentile · Michigan defense, 74th

Season profile, all the rows

Season profile

MichiganMinnesota

EPA/play, offense

EPA/play, defense

Success rate, offense

Success rate, defense

Explosive-play rate, offense

Explosive-play rate, defense

Rush EPA, offense

Rush EPA, defense

Pass EPA, offense

Pass EPA, defense

The series

Michigan leads the series 78-25-3

106 meetings since 1892 · Michigan has won the last 5

2024Michigan 27-24
2023Michigan 52-10
2020Michigan 49-24
2017Michigan 33-10
2015Michigan 29-26

Each line is Minnesota’s chance to win through that meeting. Older meetings have no play by play, so no line.

Line, fans and home field

The betting line, and the fans

Minnesota fans are feeling it about like the typical fanbase this week (47th among FBS fanbases), and the other side is no happier.

Michigan favored by 6.5 · Total 41.5

How games like this usually go

Michigan by 6.5, on the usual path until 1:13 left in the fourth

Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game

The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 377 games since 2025 with a favorite of 3.5 to 7.5 points.

The market

The spread moved 2 points toward Minnesota.

The total fell 3 points.

The books’ cut: 4.3%, the margin built into the odds

Weather at kickoff

Mild and dry. Feels like 66° at kickoff.

Michigan at Minnesota · Saturday, Oct. 3, 2026 · Huntington Bank Stadium, Minneapolis

66°feels like at kickoff
Dryno rain at kickoff
93weather score, Comfortable
Tiedfor the roughest of the day's 5 kickoff times

At kickoff, Oct. 3, 2026.

Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50.

Kickoff times that Saturday

Games in this time zone used 5 kickoff times that day, local time (kickoffs within 30 minutes of each other count as one). This game, ringed, was tied for the roughest of the day's five kickoff times. At Huntington Bank Stadium that day, a 6:45 pm kickoff would have scored 100, against 93 at 11 am.

The roughest kickoff time is the lowest of the day's times. It can still be Mixed or Comfortable.

11 am: 93, Comfortable (this game)
2:30 pm: 96, Comfortable
3:15 pm: 94, Comfortable
6 pm: 95, Comfortable
6:45 pm: 100, Ideal

Weather score at each kickoff time.

Tap a dot to read that kickoff time.

At kickoff, Oct. 3, 2026. Wind is not drawn here; gusts are in each score.

Home field

Minnesota is worth +4.7 points (±4.0) more at home than on the road since 2018 — middle of FBS, 59th percentile.

67% at home, 48% on the road against FBS opponents (34-17 home, 19-21 away).

Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +3.6 at home vs. away over 96 games — inside the ±6.7 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.

The visitors travel about 509 miles to get here.

Where next

Conference standings

Place in the conference, then conference record.

Minnesota2nd1-0
Michigan16th0-1

Full Big Ten standings

Minnesota upsets No. 24 Michigan 20-14