North Carolina A&T beats Chicago State 27-12

Team pages: Chicago State · North Carolina A&T

Chicago State1-612
North Carolina A&T3-527Final
Sat, Oct 17 · Aggie Stadium, Greensboro, N.C. · Crowd 3,521FloSports

North Carolina A&T beat Chicago State 27-12.

We had North Carolina A&T favored. It won.

Next: Chicago State at Lindenwood, Sat Oct 24 · 3:00 PM ET

Next: North Carolina A&T vs Elon, Sat Oct 31 · 1:00 PM ET

How it swung

Before kickoff, our ratings gave North Carolina A&T a 76% chance, and the closing betting line (North Carolina A&T was a 18.5-point favorite) put it at 93%.

Favored the whole way: North Carolina A&T never fell below 93%.

Chicago State never had better than a 7% chance.

FinalNorth Carolina A&T 27-12 Chicago StateNorth Carolina A&T wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.
50%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q4Won27-12Scores
50%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q4Won27-12Scores
50%10%25%Q1Q2Q3Q4Lowest 0%Lost12-27Scores
50%10%25%Q1Q2Q3Q4Lowest 0%Lost12-27Scores

No single play moved the chance by 20 points.

No single play moved the chance by 20 points.

North Carolina A&T’s chance to win after every play.
How to read this chartStarts from the pregame line (North Carolina A&T -18.5), at 94% for North Carolina A&T (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores.

Every drive

North Carolina A&T scored on 5 of its 12 drives; Chicago State on 2 of its 12.

North Carolina A&T’s drives are teal, Chicago State’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.

own goalgoal lineQ1North Carolina A&T: Touchdown, from 30 yards out to 0TouchdownNorth Carolina A&T: Field goal, from 65 yards out to 67Field goalChicago State: Punt, from 64 yards out to 44PuntNorth Carolina A&T: Punt, from 98 yards out to 75PuntChicago State: Turned over on downs, from 52 yards out to 28DownsNorth Carolina A&T: Punt, from 72 yards out to 64PuntQ2Chicago State: Punt, from 75 yards out to 72PuntNorth Carolina A&T: Punt, from 68 yards out to 65PuntChicago State: Interception, from 70 yards out to 68InterceptionNorth Carolina A&T: Touchdown, from 27 yards out to 0TouchdownChicago State: Punt, from 69 yards out to 63PuntNorth Carolina A&T: Punt, from 56 yards out to 81PuntChicago State: Interception, from 45 yards out to 26InterceptionNorth Carolina A&T: Touchdown, from 84 yards out to 0TouchdownChicago State: End of half, from 75 yards out to 69End of halfQ3Chicago State: Turned over on downs, from 77 yards out to 14DownsNorth Carolina A&T: Field goal, from 86 yards out to 11Field goalChicago State: Punt, from 71 yards out to 53PuntQ4North Carolina A&T: Punt, from 92 yards out to 90PuntChicago State: Touchdown, from 50 yards out to 0TouchdownChicago State: Touchdown, from 65 yards out to 0TouchdownNorth Carolina A&T: Interception, from 75 yards out to 73InterceptionChicago State: Turned over on downs, from 29 yards out to 25DownsNorth Carolina A&T: End of game, from 75 yards out to 53End of game

Box score

North Carolina A&T 27, Chicago State 12

Chicago State covered +18.5 by 3.5. The total, 39, stayed under 54.5.

Chicago State leaders

  • Passing Ashton Pannell 18 of 34, 171 yds, 2 TD, 2 INT
  • Rushing Michael Dabney Jr. 10 for 35 yds; Chris Edmonds 1 for 19 yds
  • Receiving Keyonte Gray 5 for 65 yds; Arshawn Powell 6 for 57 yds

North Carolina A&T leaders

  • Passing Kevin White 15 of 26, 199 yds, 3 TD, 1 INT
  • Rushing J.T. Smith Jr. 14 for 39 yds; Kevin White 10 for 37 yds
  • Receiving Elijah Kennedy 5 for 50 yds; Jayvonne Dillard 2 for 47 yds

Before kickoff

Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.

Recent games

Last three games

Chicago State · 1-5

Rated 234th in our preseason ratings, 259th now.

Three straight losses, each by 20 or more.

L 21-56 @ Tarleton State #102 of 668

lost by 35 as a 50.5-point underdog

Chicago State lost 21-56 at Tarleton State. Chance to win started at under 1%, low under 1%, high 2%.

L 20-43 vs Norfolk State #213 of 668

lost by 23 as a 17.5-point underdog

Chicago State lost 20-43 vs Norfolk State. Chance to win started at 28%, low under 1%, high 37%.

L 20-47 @ Butler #195 of 668

lost by 27 as a 20.5-point underdog

Chicago State lost 20-47 at Butler. Chance to win started at 6%, low under 1%, high 6%.

W 78-7 vs Kentucky Christian

Chicago State won 78-7 vs Kentucky Christian. Chance to win started at 59%, low 57%, high better than 99%.

L 7-42 @ UT Martin #155 of 668

lost by 35 as a 45.5-point underdog

Chicago State lost 7-42 at UT Martin. Chance to win started at 1%, low under 1%, high 2%.

L 28-44 vs Roosevelt #332 of 668

Last three games

North Carolina A&T · 2-5

Rated 263rd in our preseason ratings, 249th now, up 14 spots.

2-1 in its last three, capped by a 3-point win over New Hampshire as a 5.5-point underdog.

W 30-27 vs New Hampshire #232 of 668

won by 3 as a 5.5-point underdog

L 30-31 @ Bryant #178 of 668

lost by 1 as a 13.5-point underdog

North Carolina A&T lost 30-31 at Bryant. Chance to win started at 13%, low under 1%, high 94%.

W 22-18 vs Rhode Island #136 of 668

won by 4 as a 24.5-point underdog

Week by week

North Carolina A&T

Wk 2: L 22-30 at North Carolina Central▼8N. Carol…Wk 3: L 14-42 at Campbell▼28CampbellWk 4: W 22-18 vs Rhode Island▲4Rhode Is…Wk 5: L 30-31 at Bryant▼1BryantWk 6: W 30-27 vs New Hampshire▲3N. Hamps…
  • Wk 2Lat North Carolina Central22-30
  • Wk 3Lat Campbell14-42
  • Wk 4Wvs Rhode Island22-18
  • Wk 5Lat Bryant30-31
  • Wk 6Wvs New Hampshire30-27

Chicago State

Wk 1: L 7-42 at UT Martin▼35UT MartinWk 2: W 78-7 vs Kentucky Christian▲71Kentucky…Wk 3: L 20-47 at Butler▼27ButlerWk 4: L 20-43 vs Norfolk State▼23Norfolk…Wk 5: L 21-56 at Tarleton State▼35Tarleton…
  • Wk 1Lat UT Martin7-42
  • Wk 2Wvs Kentucky Christian78-7
  • Wk 3Lat Butler20-47
  • Wk 4Lvs Norfolk State20-43
  • Wk 5Lat Tarleton State21-56

Power rating by week

North Carolina A&T is rated 2.2 points ahead as of week 6. Our power rating by week; higher is better.

-10-12-15Wk 0Wk 3Wk 6North Carolina A&TChicago State

Line, fans and home field

The betting line, and the fans

Our model and the betting line don’t fully agree on North Carolina A&T’s chances here.

50-50Model · 76%Line · 93%Chicago StateNorth Carolina A&T

North Carolina A&T favored by 18.5 · Total 54.5

How games like this usually go

North Carolina A&T by 18.5, and it went to form

50%90%Q1Q2Q3Q450%90%Q1Q2Q3Q4

Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game

The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 251 games since 2025 with a favorite of 14.5 to 21.5 points.

The market

The spread moved 5 points toward North Carolina A&T.

opened −13.5now −18.5

Spread: −13.5 → −18.5

The books’ cut: 5.4%, the margin built into the odds

Home field

North Carolina A&T has had no measurable home edge since 2018 — +0.2 points, home against road — 3rd percentile of FBS.

0% at home, 9% on the road against FBS opponents (0-1 home, 1-10 away).

Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads -6.2 at home vs. away over 49 games — inside the ±8.3 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.

The visitors travel about 583 miles to get here.

Where next