For three years, Arch Manning was the most famous backup in football -- the name, the bloodline, the hype with no tape. Then he finally played, struggled, and figured it out. Now he's the Heisman favorite, and the patience is over.
6′4″ · 222 lb · New Orleans, LA · Isidore Newman
CFB Index
A single number blending on-field production (an EPA-based value lane) with box-score output for this player's position.
0-100, scaled within each position's own cohort — not directly comparable across positions.
On production he ranks #33 of 146 QBs; on reputation he is a projected national-award finalist. The gap between those two numbers is the story.
The numbers
passing yards · 2026 · through week 3
3 games into 2026 so far -- Best game: 305 pass yds, 4 TD, 1 INT, vs Texas State
The play that turned itSwung Texas from 26% to 75% to win.Texas at Mississippi State · 45-38
His career numbers, season by seasonThe story
For three years, Arch Manning was the most famous backup in football -- the name, the bloodline, the hype with no tape. Then he finally played, struggled, and figured it out. Now he's the Heisman favorite, and the patience is over.
How he plays
Operates within the system without forcing anything.
Sack rate: 66th percentile.
The full scouting readAura™ · Him Watch
+39aura tax
60th pctl our passing-value metric (wEPA) QBs · 160 qualified, n=708
— more hype than the tape.Buzz vs Tape
He's mentioned more than 99% of qualified QBs this season, but his production sits in just the 60th percentile — a gap of 39 points between volume and tape.
Also worth knowing:
“[Vogel] #Texas QB Arch Manning posts an apology to Holly Rowe.”
Fan claims · every quote verified verbatim
- Arch Manning’s mobility and off-script play
When Arch Manning scrambles, the result is often a big play, and even a long touchdown run.
Based on 2 comments from 2 posters across 2 threads · Jul 1, 2026–Jul 11, 2026 · via LonghornNation, On Texas Football
I am surprised at how unpolished Arch is though. I never bought into Arch looking like a Heisman candidate but he's still struggling with some of the basics.
Based on 1 comment from 1 poster across 1 thread · Sep 6, 2025 · via CFB
The grandson of Archie, nephew of Peyton and Eli, was the most-hyped recruit of his generation before he'd thrown a college pass -- and he sat, behind Quinn Ewers, while the legend grew on zero evidence. His 2025 debut as the starter was supposed to settle it; for five games it only complicated it. He averaged an interception a game, the offense sputtered, and the takes turned. Then the season flipped: over the final eight games he turned the ball over twice, and across his last six he was responsible for 20 touchdowns through the air, on the ground, and even on a catch.
That late surge is why he enters 2026 as a betting co-favorite -- by some books the favorite -- and why one analyst flatly said there's 'a 0% chance' he isn't in New York for the ceremony. The bar isn't a good season; it's a coronation. A Manning has never won a Heisman; Texas has produced only two. He'd close both gaps at once.
The forward question isn't talent -- the arm was never in doubt. It's whether the second half of 2025 was the real Arch and the first half was the learning curve, or the other way around. In an SEC where Texas is built to win it all, a full season at his ceiling makes him the story of the sport. Anything less reopens the only debate that's ever followed him: was the hype ever real?
His career
He arrived as a blue-chip recruit and played like one.
Manning is a big-bodied gunslinger who plays the position downhill -- a live arm that pushes it deep (88th-percentile average depth) and the juice to run for eight scores. But the 2025 tape is the rawness as much as the upside: he graded bottom-fifth in completion and ninth percentile in success rate, throwing his share of picks even as the flashes -- the explosive shots, a top-quarter touchdown rate -- hinted at the ceiling. The lightbulb came late: an interception a game through five weeks, then two turnovers across the final eight. That arc is the whole scouting report -- the tools are loud and the consistency is the project. On schedule, Sarkisian's pro-style attack has a weapon with no ceiling; when he forces it, the efficiency cratered. 2026 is about turning the back-half flashes into the baseline -- making the rare reps the every-down ones.
Written by our staff.
The role got bigger.
Career arc
Trophy case · Confirmed honors
What the selectors said
ALL-SEC
All-SEC mention (2025)
Badges
Coaching lineage · 2023–2026
1 coachPlayed his entire career under Steve Sarkisian.
Game by game
Point color shows the opponent's defensive strength that week (red = weaker defense, blue = stronger) — dashed line is this player's own season average.
Game log · Week-by-week
2026 season · 3 games
| Wk | Opp | CMP/ATT | YDS | TD | INT | YPA | QBR | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | W 59-7vs Texas State | 20/27 | 305 | 4 | 1 | 11.3 | — | Season-high 305 yds |
| Wk 2 | W 24-23vs Ohio State | 23/37 | 195 | 1 | 1 | 5.3 | 83.0 | |
| Wk 3 | W 30-6vs UTSA | 17/33 | 164 | 2 | 0 | 5.0 | 30.6 | |
| Total | 60/97 | 664 | 7 | 2 | 7.2 | 56.8 |
SIGNATURE GAME · Week 2 · 2026
W 24–23
vs Ohio State
195 yds · 1 TD · 1 INT · QBR 83.0 · 24 rush yds (8 car)
A wire-to-wire battle — won by 1 at home.
With D. Smothers — 74 rush yds (21 car) · 2 TD · M. Chiumento — 40.7 yards per punt · 3 punts · 43 long
Signature plays · top plays by |EPA|
The plays that mattered most
Since week 2: +163 passing yards, +2 passing TD.
Season context · Team result + system
4 seasons under Steve Sarkisian — 38-8 over that span.
Where this profile ranks vs the QB cohort
Box-score + play-by-play EPA percentiles
Concern: explosive rate (7th percentile).
Real play-by-play efficiency
Season trend
Percentiles versus same-position peers with enough snaps this season. Most bars are box-score rates; EPA / success-rate bars are computed from real play-by-play (offense only — no defensive EPA model exists yet).
Pass Profile · True throw depth (charted plays)
Adjusted ANY/A, sack rate, and where the yards came from
Adjusted ANY/A
6.7876 of 126 QBsSack rate
4.0%53 of 126 QBsRarely sacked (53 of 126), but Adjusted ANY/A hasn't followed (76 of 126).
Adjusted ANY/A uses full-season box-score totals (attempts, yards, TDs, INTs); sack rate is play-by-play-derived.
Behind LOS · Negative air yds
Short · 0–9 air yds
Middle · 10–19 air yds
Deep · 20+ air yds
Overall 60.0% completion on 100 attempts · 44% completion on 9 deep attempts (20+ air yds).
Zeitgeist Passer Rating
2026 · our own passing-efficiency number, shown next to the 1979 formula it does not replace.
Thin sample: 103 dropbacks47Zeitgeist Passer Ratingnot ranked until 125 dropbacks
--NCAA passer ratingno box-score line yet
Positive-play rate weight 24%
43.0%28th pct of FBS QBsshare of dropbacks that gained expected points · -1.7% schedule adj.Yards per attempt weight 56%
6.8944th pct of FBS QBssacks excludedSack rate weight 21% (penalty)
5.7%49th pct of FBS QBsthe input passer rating cannot see · +1.8% schedule adj.Opponent-adjusted; garbage time excluded (1 of 104 dropbacks dropped). 50 = FBS average; the number is pulled toward 50 when the sample is thin. Scaled against the 2025 FBS population until enough 2026 QBs qualify. How ZPR is built.
Splits · Per-game
2026 season · 3 games
Home vs Road
| YDS/g | TD/g | YPA | INT/g | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home3g | 221 | 2.3 | 7.2 | 0.7 |
First half vs Second half
| YDS/g | TD/g | YPA | INT/g | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weeks 1-73g | 221 | 2.3 | 7.2 | 0.7 |
Supporting cast · Scheme
Staff and system around the player
Head Coach
Steve Sarkisian
Pass share
45.9%
105 pass / 124 run
Plays / game
76.3
3 games
Scheme: Run-leaning, fast tempo.
Player standing · 2026
Our Heisman model has him in the top five; no finalist honor is on the books yet.
Recognition
2026 outlook
Heisman market4.4%full market ›
In the mix to repeat All-SEC
Based on 2025: #8 of 16 SEC QBs
35% estimated, 95% confidence interval 31–38%. Base rate measured from players who finished at a comparable rank in their conference and came back the next season. It is an estimate from a small sample, not a forecast of this player.
Play style
Manning is a big-bodied gunslinger who plays the position downhill -- a live arm that pushes it deep (88th-percentile average depth) and the juice to run for eight scores. But the 2025 tape is the rawness as much as the upside: he graded bottom-fifth in completion and ninth percentile in success rate, throwing his share of picks even as the flashes -- the explosive shots, a top-quarter touchdown rate -- hinted at the ceiling. The lightbulb came late: an interception a game through five weeks, then two turnovers across the final eight. That arc is the whole scouting report -- the tools are loud and the consistency is the project. On schedule, Sarkisian's pro-style attack has a weapon with no ceiling; when he forces it, the efficiency cratered. 2026 is about turning the back-half flashes into the baseline -- making the rare reps the every-down ones.
Our classifier reads him the same way: operates within the system without forcing anything.
Returning starter at quarterback for a 10-3 Texas team that went -6 in the portal.
Player DNA
Balanced passer who operates within the system, without one standout number carrying the profile.
His 2026 production profile sits closest to Ryan Willis’s 2018 season.
Matches Ryan on
Differs from Ryan on
Through 3 college seasons, his career arc tracks closest to Desmond Ridder’s path through Cincinnati.
Matches Desmond on
As a senior, his production profile tracks closest to Gerry Bohannon's senior season at Baylor (2021).
Matches Gerry on
Differs from Gerry on
Player DNA
Heisman futures · sportsbook market
#2 in market · 5 books
Heisman Trajectory · 2026
Peaked at #6 — top-10 conversation.
A fourth-year quarterback who has appeared in 25 games with 15 starts ... 12-3 as a starter ... 2026 Phil Steele preseason First-Team SEC selection ... 2026 Phil Steele preseason Second-Team All-America selection ... named to the Davey O'Brien Award's Postseason Great 8 (Jan. 26) ... added as a…