Bryce Underwood was the No. 1 recruit in the country, flipped to Michigan in a record NIL deal, and started every game as a true freshman. He flashed early and faded late. The sophomore leap is the whole reason the bet was made.
6′4″ · 228 lb · Detroit, MI · Belleville
CFB Index
A single number blending on-field production (an EPA-based value lane) with box-score output for this player's position.
0-100, scaled within each position's own cohort — not directly comparable across positions.
The numbers
passing yards · 2026 · through week 3
3 games into 2026 so far
The play that turned itSwung Michigan from 12% to 98% to win.Western Michigan at Michigan · 13-12
His career numbers, season by seasonThe story
Bryce Underwood was the No. 1 recruit in the country, flipped to Michigan in a record NIL deal, and started every game as a true freshman. He flashed early and faded late. The sophomore leap is the whole reason the bet was made.
Aura™ · Him Watch
+32aura tax
64th pctl our passing-value metric (wEPA) QBs · 160 qualified, n=440
— more hype than the tape.Buzz vs Tape
His own fans are far more bullish than the rival fanbase.
Also worth knowing:
“Bryce Underwood VERY GOOD QB??? Since when?”
Fan claims · every quote verified verbatim
Underwood is as advertised and worth every penny. Everyone else is suss at best. Hate to say it but they looked poorly coached tonight.
Based on 1 comment from 1 poster across 1 thread · Aug 31, 2025 · via CFB
Michigan debut Ahh we are 6 days away from I’m seeing some Michigan football. How do you think our season is gonna go do you think we will be national Champion contenders? Do you think Bryce Underwood will be the next great Michigan quarterback and of course, do you think were going to win five straight games against ❌hio State?
Based on 1 comment from 1 poster across 1 thread · Aug 25, 2025 · via MichiganWolverines
Kyle Whittingham has stood by his QB, Bryce Underwood, throughout the offseason and even after the disappointing showing in the spring game .
Based on 2 comments across 1 thread · Jul 23, 2026
Few recruits have ever arrived with this much weight: the No. 1 overall prospect in 2025, a headline flip from LSU to Michigan, and a true freshman who started all thirteen games. The season was a freshman season -- 2,428 passing yards, 11 touchdowns against nine interceptions, plus 392 rushing yards and six scores from a 6-4, 228 frame. The arc is the tell: a sharp debut and an early Offensive Rookie of the Year nod, then a fade down the stretch, with seven of his nine interceptions coming in the final five games and three in a bowl loss to Texas. Now, with a retooled coaching staff and a year of starts behind him, the forward stakes are consolidation -- cutting the late-season turnovers while keeping the dual-threat upside. For the most hyped quarterback recruit of his era, 2026 is where the talent is supposed to become production.
His career
He was winning awards before he was old enough to be a story.
Underwood already passes the eye test -- 6-4, 228, with what scouts have long called premier arm talent, velocity to every level, and a natural deep ball. The freshman data is genuinely encouraging where it counts: our play-by-play graded his dropback success rate in the 51st percentile and his EPA per dropback in the 74th, and he pushed the ball downfield (68th-percentile average depth of target) rather than checking down. Recruiting evaluators credited his "confidence and poise" under center; the development note is mechanical -- he can get tense in the upper body with inconsistent feet in the pocket, the kind of thing that produced his late-season interception spike. Add a real running threat (392 yards, six scores) and the profile is a high-ceiling dual-threat whose year-two job is steadiness, not flash.
Written by our staff.
Career arc
Trophy case · Confirmed honors
What the selectors said
FRESHMAN HONORS
Freshman recognition (2025)
1 mention(s)
Badges
Coaching lineage · 2025–2026
2 coachesCoaching transition mid-career: Biff Poggi → Kyle Whittingham. Worth noting in scheme + development context.
Game by game
Point color shows the opponent's defensive strength that week (red = weaker defense, blue = stronger) — dashed line is this player's own season average.
Game log · Week-by-week
2026 season · 3 games
| Wk | Opp | CMP/ATT | YDS | TD | INT | YPA | QBR | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | W 13-12vs Western Michigan | 12/22 | 170 | 1 | 1 | 7.7 | — | |
| Wk 2 | W 17-10vs Oklahoma | 9/17 | 111 | 0 | 0 | 6.5 | 74.4 | |
| Wk 3 | W 52-17vs UTEP | 19/25 | 223 | 2 | 0 | 8.9 | 63.2 | Season-high 223 yds |
| Total | 40/64 | 504 | 3 | 1 | 7.7 | 68.8 |
SIGNATURE GAME · Week 2 · 2026
W 17–10
vs Oklahoma
111 yds · 0 TD · 0 INT · QBR 74.4 · 87 rush yds (18 car) · 1 TD
A wire-to-wire battle — won by 7 at home.
With C. Brown — 42.3 yards per punt · 7 punts · 6 inside the 20 · T. Butkowski — 5 points · 40 long · 100 percent on field goals
Signature plays · top plays by |EPA|
The plays that mattered most
Since week 2: +223 passing yards, +2 passing TD.
Season context · Team result + system
Where this profile ranks vs the QB cohort
Box-score percentiles
Elite: rush yards (89th percentile). Strength: rush tds (84th percentile). Concern: pass yards (2nd percentile).
Percentiles versus same-position peers with enough snaps this season, based on box-score rates.
Pass Profile · True throw depth (charted plays)
Adjusted ANY/A, sack rate, and where the yards came from
Adjusted ANY/A
7.4366 of 126 QBsSack rate
5.9%86 of 126 QBsSacked on 5.9% of dropbacks (86 of 126) and Adjusted ANY/A trails the field (66 of 126).
Adjusted ANY/A uses full-season box-score totals (attempts, yards, TDs, INTs); sack rate is play-by-play-derived.
Behind LOS · Negative air yds
Short · 0–9 air yds
Middle · 10–19 air yds
Deep · 20+ air yds
Overall 60.6% completion on 66 attempts · 9% completion on 11 deep attempts (20+ air yds).
Zeitgeist Passer Rating
2026 · our own passing-efficiency number, shown next to the 1979 formula it does not replace.
Thin sample: 70 dropbacks57Zeitgeist Passer Ratingnot ranked until 125 dropbacks
--NCAA passer ratingno box-score line yet
Positive-play rate weight 24%
50.0%82th pct of FBS QBsshare of dropbacks that gained expected pointsYards per attempt weight 56%
7.8278th pct of FBS QBssacks excludedSack rate weight 21% (penalty)
5.7%48th pct of FBS QBsthe input passer rating cannot seeOpponent-adjusted; garbage time excluded (0 of 70 dropbacks dropped). 50 = FBS average; the number is pulled toward 50 when the sample is thin. Scaled against the 2025 FBS population until enough 2026 QBs qualify. How ZPR is built.
Splits · Per-game
2026 season · 3 games
Home vs Road
| YDS/g | TD/g | YPA | INT/g | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home3g | 168 | 1.0 | 7.7 | 0.3 |
First half vs Second half
| YDS/g | TD/g | YPA | INT/g | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weeks 1-73g | 168 | 1.0 | 7.7 | 0.3 |
Supporting cast · Scheme
Staff and system around the player
Head Coach
Kyle Whittingham
Pass share
38.2%
66 pass / 107 run
Plays / game
57.7
3 games
Scheme: Run-heavy, slow tempo.
Player standing · 2026
On the two-deep and pushing for snaps.
Recognition
2026 outlook
Heisman market0.6%full market ›
In the mix for All-Big Ten
Based on 2025: #8 of 19 Big Ten QBs
35% estimated, 95% confidence interval 31–38%. Base rate measured from players who finished at a comparable rank in their conference and came back the next season. It is an estimate from a small sample, not a forecast of this player.
Play style
Underwood already passes the eye test -- 6-4, 228, with what scouts have long called premier arm talent, velocity to every level, and a natural deep ball. The freshman data is genuinely encouraging where it counts: our play-by-play graded his dropback success rate in the 51st percentile and his EPA per dropback in the 74th, and he pushed the ball downfield (68th-percentile average depth of target) rather than checking down. Recruiting evaluators credited his "confidence and poise" under center; the development note is mechanical -- he can get tense in the upper body with inconsistent feet in the pocket, the kind of thing that produced his late-season interception spike. Add a real running threat (392 yards, six scores) and the profile is a high-ceiling dual-threat whose year-two job is steadiness, not flash.
Our classifier reads him the same way: extends plays with his feet until something opens up.
Projected starter at quarterback for a 9-4 Michigan team that went -16 in the portal.
Player DNA
Makes plays with feet when the pocket collapses. Efficiency still on the rise.
His 2025 production profile sits closest to Eli Holstein’s 2024 season.
Matches Eli on
Differs from Eli on
Through 2 college seasons, his career arc tracks closest to Conner Weigman’s path through Houston.
Matches Conner on
As a freshman, his production profile tracks closest to Eli Holstein's freshman season at Pittsburgh (2024).
Matches Eli on
Differs from Eli on
Player DNA
Heisman futures · sportsbook market
#26 in market ▼ from #14 · 4 books
Heisman Trajectory · 2026
Peaked at #31 this season.
CAREER GAME-BY-GAME STATISTICS CAREER HIGHS Rushing • Attempts: 14 - vs. Texas (Dec. 31, 2025) • Yards: 114 - vs. Central Michigan (Sept. 13, 2025) • TDs: 2 - vs. Central Michigan (Sept. 13, 2025) • Long: 33 - vs. Texas (Dec. 31, 2025) Passing • Attempts: 42 - vs. Texas (Dec. 31, 2025) •…