Senior quarterback for Utah. 2026: 3 games with a box-score line.
5′11″ · 210 lb · Phoenix, AZ · Saguaro HS
CFB Index
A single number blending on-field production (an EPA-based value lane) with box-score output for this player's position.
0-100, scaled within each position's own cohort — not directly comparable across positions.
On production he ranks #30 of 146 QBs; on reputation he is a projected national-award finalist. The gap between those two numbers is the story.
The numbers
passing yards · 2026 · through week 3
3 games into 2026 so far -- Backed by 28 car · 193 yds · 3 TD -- top 1% rushing yards game. -- Best game: 261 pass yds, 2 TD, 1 INT, vs Arkansas
The play that turned itSwung Utah from 9% to 55% to win.Kansas State at Utah · 51-47
His career numbers, season by seasonThe story
Senior quarterback for Utah. 2026: 3 games with a box-score line.
Aura™ · Him Watch
+3aura tax
75th pctl our passing-value metric (wEPA) QBs · 160 qualified, n=170
— the discourse is fair.Buzz vs Tape
Every angle we can check here reads about where you'd expect this season.
Also checked out fine:
“Damn, I didn't even notice that. My 17th round pick of Will Watson as my third string QB on my fantasy team is looking mighty juicy right now. Devon Dampier might have to hit the bench.”
Devon Dampier
Extends plays with his feet until something opens up. Four head coaches in four seasons, at two different programs. Two straight seasons of it now: Big 12 Offensive Newcomer of the Year again in 2025. The receipt on tape: 261 pass yds, 50 rush yds against Arkansas, Week 2, 2026.
690 PASS YDS · 7 PASS TD · 115 RUSH YDS
Low coverage — composed from the verified record.
His career
Nobody recruited him. He earned the honors anyway.
Career arc
Trophy case · Confirmed honors
What the selectors said
ALL-BIG 12
All-Big 12 mention (2025)
Badges
Coaching lineage · 2023–2026
2 coachesCoaching transition mid-career: Kyle Whittingham → Morgan Scalley. Worth noting in scheme + development context.
| Season | Team | |||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | Utah | 53 | 74 | 71.6% | 690 | 9.3 | 7 | 1 | 178.5 | 72 | -- | -- |
| 2025 | Utah | 212 | 334 | 63.5% | 2,490 | 7.5 | 24 | 5 | 146.8 | 58 | -- | -- |
| 2024 | New Mexico | 226 | 390 | 57.9% | 2,768 | 7.1 | 12 | 12 | 121.6 | 62 | -- | -- |
| 2023 | New Mexico | 40 | 64 | 62.5% | 525 | 8.2 | 6 | 0 | 162.3 | 54 | -- | -- |
| Career | 531 | 862 | 61.6% | 6,473 | 7.5 | 49 | 18 | 139.3 | 60 | -- | -- |
| Season | Team | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | Utah | 27 | 115 | 4.3 | 2 | -- |
| 2025 | Utah | 146 | 835 | 5.7 | 10 | -- |
| 2024 | New Mexico | 156 | 1,152 | 7.4 | 19 | -- |
| 2023 | New Mexico | 59 | 333 | 5.6 | 4 | -- |
| Career | 388 | 2,435 | 6.3 | 35 | -- |
Game by game
Point color shows the opponent's defensive strength that week (red = weaker defense, blue = stronger) — dashed line is this player's own season average.
Game log · Week-by-week
2026 season · 3 games
| Wk | Opp | CMP/ATT | YDS | TD | INT | YPA | QBR | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | W 66-14vs Idaho | 13/18 | 176 | 3 | 0 | 9.8 | 93.5 | 3 TD passes |
| Wk 2 | W 43-10vs Arkansas | 18/24 | 261 | 2 | 1 | 10.9 | 84.8 | Season-high 261 yds |
| Wk 3 | W 33-0vs Utah State | 22/32 | 253 | 2 | 0 | 7.9 | 72.9 | Clean 2-TD game |
| Total | 53/74 | 690 | 7 | 1 | 9.5 | 83.7 |
SIGNATURE GAME · Week 1 · 2026
W 66–14
vs Idaho
176 yds · 3 TD · 0 INT · QBR 93.5 · 31 rush yds (6 car)
Dominant 52-point win at home against Idaho.
With B. Ficklin — 93 yds · 2 TD · 0 INT · QBR 80.1 · 70 rush yds (8 car) · B. Pegan — 12 rush yds (1 car) · 1 TD
Signature plays · top plays by |EPA|
The plays that mattered most
Since week 2: +253 passing yards, +2 passing TD.
Season context · Team result + system
Where this profile ranks vs the QB cohort
Box-score percentiles
Elite: yards / att (84th percentile). Strength: rush tds (84th percentile).
Percentiles versus same-position peers with enough snaps this season, based on box-score rates.
Pass Profile · True throw depth (charted plays)
Adjusted ANY/A, sack rate, and where the yards came from
Adjusted ANY/A
10.1417 of 126 QBsSack rate
2.6%29 of 126 QBsRarely sacked (29 of 126 QBs) and still 17 of 126 in Adjusted ANY/A.
Adjusted ANY/A uses full-season box-score totals (attempts, yards, TDs, INTs); sack rate is play-by-play-derived.
Behind LOS · Negative air yds
Short · 0–9 air yds
Middle · 10–19 air yds
Deep · 20+ air yds
Overall 71.6% completion on 74 attempts · 31% completion on 16 deep attempts (20+ air yds).
Zeitgeist Passer Rating
2026 · our own passing-efficiency number, shown next to the 1979 formula it does not replace.
Thin sample: 69 dropbacks72Zeitgeist Passer Ratingnot ranked until 125 dropbacks
--NCAA passer ratingno box-score line yet
Positive-play rate weight 24%
56.2%99th pct of FBS QBsshare of dropbacks that gained expected points · -3.3% schedule adj.Yards per attempt weight 56%
9.0998th pct of FBS QBssacks excluded · -0.4 schedule adj.Sack rate weight 21% (penalty)
1.5%97th pct of FBS QBsthe input passer rating cannot see · +0.1% schedule adj.Opponent-adjusted; garbage time excluded (7 of 76 dropbacks dropped). 50 = FBS average; the number is pulled toward 50 when the sample is thin. Scaled against the 2025 FBS population until enough 2026 QBs qualify. How ZPR is built.
Splits · Per-game
2026 season · 3 games
Home vs Road
| YDS/g | TD/g | YPA | INT/g | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home3g | 230 | 2.3 | 9.5 | 0.3 |
First half vs Second half
| YDS/g | TD/g | YPA | INT/g | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weeks 1-73g | 230 | 2.3 | 9.5 | 0.3 |
Supporting cast · Scheme
Staff and system around the player
Head Coach
Morgan Scalley
Pass share
44.4%
91 pass / 114 run
Plays / game
68.3
3 games
Scheme: Run-leaning.
Player standing · 2026
Our Heisman model has him in the top five; no finalist honor is on the books yet.
Recognition
2026 outlook
Heisman market0.8%full market ›
In the mix to repeat All-Big 12
Based on 2025: #5 of 17 Big 12 QBs
35% estimated, 95% confidence interval 31–38%. Base rate measured from players who finished at a comparable rank in their conference and came back the next season. It is an estimate from a small sample, not a forecast of this player.
Play style
Makes plays with feet when the pocket collapses. Efficiency still on the rise.
CFB Index positional classification
Returning starter at quarterback for a 11-2 Utah team that went -5 in the portal. The No. 1,751 recruit in the country is starting at quarterback in the Big 12 as a senior.
Player DNA
Makes plays with feet when the pocket collapses. Efficiency still on the rise.
His 2025 production profile sits closest to Diego Pavia’s 2023 season.
Matches Diego on
Differs from Diego on
Through 4 college seasons, his career arc tracks closest to Chris Reynolds’s path through Charlotte.
Matches Chris on
As a junior, his production profile tracks closest to Anthony Colandrea's junior season at UNLV (2025).
Matches Anthony on
Differs from Anthony on
Player DNA
Heisman futures · sportsbook market
#24 in market ▲ from #25 · 6 books
Heisman Trajectory · 2026
Peaked at #14 this season.
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