cfb zeitgeistZeitgeist
OFFSEASON · SUMMER 2026 · COMMITMENT SEASON
Heisman / Players / Johnny Thompson Jr. /Kansas

Johnny Thompson Jr.

RB · Kansas · So · #20

Below the discourse floor — the honest stats-only state.

75 RUSH YDS · 0 RUSH TD · 19 CARRIES

2026 TRANSFERTransferred Kansas → Ball State for 2026

Where He Ended Up · Transfer

Transferred to Ball State

2025Kansas
2026Ball State

RB · KANSAS · BIG 12

Johnny Thompson Jr.

  • 2
  • #20
  • 5-11 | 200 lb
  • Canoga Park, CA

CFB Zeitgeist Score

7

Below cohort in the position cohort. Carried by fumbles lost at the 49th percentile.

Heisman Heat

#1403

<1% win probability

Fan Belief

Awaiting

Player-specific FI not yet ingested. Falls back to team mood below.

Respect Gap

Awaiting

Coming online with player-level FI.

Reality Gap

Awaiting

Coming online with player-level FI.

ACCOLADE PROBABILITY

Heisman

<1%

TOP RB AWARD

Doak Walker

CONSENSUS

All-American

Player Standing · 17 rungs

Tier 1 · 2-deep

R04 · Rotational

Rotational. Earning real snaps in the rotation.

Not on team2-deepStarterRecognizedEliteApex

Development Trajectory · rushing yards

2024–2025
32.02024
75.02025

+134%

Up 134% from first season to most-recent.

Career Arc

HS
Recruit
★★★
#1060 national
CFB
College
Kansas
2024–2025
NFL
NFL Draft
Not drafted (yet)

Identity & Role

The durable bio layer: position, size, hometown, and roster role.

PositionRB
Class2
Jersey20
Measurements5-11 | 200 lb
HometownCanoga Park, CA
Primary teamKansas

Recruiting Pedigree

How big the prospect was before college, and whether the later career arc beat that expectation.

Top pedigree 3-star No. 1060 recruit
Composite rating 0.8622 HighSchool
Signed with -- 2023
Origin Oaks Christian Westlake Village, CA, USA
Class Profile Context
2023 3-star | 0.8622 No. 1060 recruit | HighSchool

Transfer Arc

Portal movement changes role, context, and perception. This keeps that path in one place.

Portal moves 1 Programs changed on file
Latest destination Ball State 2026
Transfer stars 3-star CFBD transfer rating context
Eligibility Immediate Jan 25, 2026
Season Move Context
2026 Kansas -> Ball State 3-star | 0.8400 | Immediate

Heisman Lens · 2024 Season · Final

Where the player landed at the end of the listed season — final nowcast rank, win/finalist/ballot probabilities, and the cleanest official Heisman placement on file.

HIGH CONFIDENCE· through week 16
Current nowcast#1403Latest modeled ballot order
Season forecast#1880Where the full season sim points
Win probability0.0%Chance to actually win the trophy
Finalist probability0.0%Chance to make the finalist tier
Ballot probability0.0%Chance to appear anywhere on a ballot
Best official finish--Best completed Heisman placement on file

Heisman Futures

Not yet listed on major futures markets.

No achievements unlocked yet this season.

Selector Grid · 2025

AP
FWAA
AFCA
WCFF
SN
SI

Selector recognition fills in once the major honors lists (AP, FWAA, AFCA, Walter Camp, Sporting News, SI) are scraped and ingested.

NIL · Recruiting · NFL Draft

Market value, pedigree & pro outcome

Recruit stars

★★★☆☆

to —

Composite

0.8622

#1060 national

Today’s Hot-Take

The Hot-Take engine fires when this player’s percentile profile crosses a defensible threshold (top 10% in a cohort, 100+ snap sample). When it’s quiet, the model is honoring its “must be defensible” rule.

Anti-Take

PENDING

The contrarian read fires when the rules-engine detects a stat that complicates the Hot-Take. Quiet here means the model hasn’t found a defensible counter yet — not that one doesn’t exist.

The Room on Johnny Thompson Jr.

Fan sentiment ·

Belief Meter

64

Mixed Sentiment

Sample 7 mentions
Confidence LOW

Top Take

Trajectory

Cohort divergence mapbearishbullishheatedcalmOwn fans: 7 mentions · belief +29 · "Kansas State Wildcats surge to a No. 24 national ranking after a dominant series"Own fansRivals: 2 mentions · belief +0 · "al.com First-rounder from Auburn signs $17 million NFL contract Mark Inabinett |"RivalsNational: 1 mentions · belief +0 · "The cumulative link to the preseason rankings can be found [here]( https://www.r"National
  • Own fans · n=7
  • Rivals · n=2
  • National · n=1

Rival Radar

How rival fanbases talk about Johnny Thompson Jr.

Only 2 rival mention(s) — below the 4-mention floor for a defensible read.

Signature Story

Awaiting candidate metric

He hasn't written his page yet — we'll start filling it in when there are enough snaps to rank against his peers.

Signature Moment

No signature moment on the ledger yet.

Returns once this player puts together a multi-game body of work — single-game flashes alone don't clear the bar.

A 3-act season arc returns once this player has six or more games on the ledger.

Season Pace · Projection

Where the rushing totals stand

projecting to 13-game
Through 3g
75Rush yards
19Carries
0Rush TDs
Per game
25Rush yards
6Carries
0Rush TDs
Projected (13g)
325Rush yards
82Carries
0Rush TDs

To hit 750-yard season (currently 75): needs 67.5/game over remaining 10.

To hit 1,000-yard season (currently 75): needs 92.5/game over remaining 10.

To hit 1,500-yard season (currently 75): needs 142.5/game over remaining 10.

To hit 10 rushing TDs (currently 0): needs 1/game over remaining 10.

To hit 15 rushing TDs (currently 0): needs 1.5/game over remaining 10.

To hit 20 rushing TDs (currently 0): needs 2/game over remaining 10.

What made this player interesting

The fast read on the thing that makes this player more than a generic stat line.

Johnny Thompson Jr.'s story is about how role and output meet each other. For Kansas, the card already shows enough current-season production to explain why he is on the serious-player board, and the next layer is determining whether the profile is just very good or actually distinctive.

Current place #1403 0.0% win | 0.0% finalist
Role load 8.7% Overall usage share
Profile quirk Development arc The card should explain why this profile stands out

2025 Season · Final

Traditional stats first. Advanced context underneath.

Last season

RB season snapshot

2025 season snapshot | final

2025 season snapshot | finalData: CFBD player stats + local Heisman modelPeer context: same position + same level
Scrimmage yards 75 75 rush | -- rec | #472/735 (36th pct)
Rush TD 0 19 carries | #447/739 (40th pct)
Yards/carry 3.9 Per-rush efficiency | #516/735 (30th pct)
Player identity What kind of player is this?

30-second read

What kind of player is this?

Backfield contributor against FBS RB peers.

Balanced profile

2025 Season · Final

2025 season snapshot | final

Rushing

CAR
19 39th
YDS
75 36th
YPC
3.9 30th
TD
0 40th

Game Log · Week-by-week

2025 season · 3 games

Box score · CFBD
WkOppCARYDSAVGTDLONGNote
Wk 1W 31-7vs Fresno State4123.007Season-high 39 yds
Wk 1W 46-7vs Wagner9394.309Season-high 39 yds
Wk 4W 41-10vs West Virginia6244.009
Total19753.809
Season-by-season tables Career rows + per-season box score

Traditional history

Traditional Stats

Season rows up top, career context at the bottom.

Season rows Career row

Season context · Team result + system

2024Kansas5-7HC: Lance Leipold · Run-leaning
2025Kansas5-7HC: Lance Leipold · Run-leaning
SeasonTeam
2025Kansas19753.90--
2024Kansas5326.40--
Career2 loaded seasons241074.50--
Advanced layer Usage, value, and context

Advanced metrics second

Advanced Metrics

Usage, value, and opponent-adjusted context.

Usage Value Context
Rushing WEPA

Opponent-adjusted rushing value. It helps separate empty volume from carries that actually move the scoreboard.

Role share

How much of the team's offense flows through this back once rushing work and receiving work are combined.

Peer percentile

Every percentile is compared against players at the same position and level, so an FBS quarterback is judged against FBS quarterbacks, not the whole sport.

Traditional first

The top tables stick to the stats fans already know from broadcasts and box scores. Advanced context is pushed underneath instead of replacing the basics.

Receiving work -- -- rec yds
Usage 8.7% 14.3% rush share | #364/738 (51st pct)
Rushing WEPA -- Adjusted value feed still loading
Open full stat explorer
0 metrics visible Showing all metrics
Group Metric Value Rank Pct Why it matters
Rushing Rushing yards 75 #472/735 36th pct Volumevs FBS RB
Rushing Rush TD 0 #447/739 40th pct Scoringvs FBS RB
Rushing Yards / carry 3.9 #516/735 30th pct Efficiencyvs FBS RB
Usage Role share 8.7% #364/738 51st pct Share of team offensevs FBS RB
Rushing Carries 19 #454/739 39th pct Volumevs FBS RB
Rushing Rushing LONG 9 #583/733 21st pct Metricvs FBS RB
Usage 3rd-down usage 14.7% #75/738 90th pct Money-down loadvs FBS RB
Usage Rush share 14.3% #368/738 50th pct Ground-game usagevs FBS RB
Usage Standard-down usage 9.1% #375/738 49th pct Base-situation sharevs FBS RB
Usage 1st-down usage 8.1% #414/738 44th pct Early-down loadvs FBS RB
Usage 2nd-down usage 7.4% #454/738 39th pct Middle-down loadvs FBS RB
Usage Passing-down usage 7.0% #345/738 53rd pct Known-passing sharevs FBS RB
Usage Pass share 0.0% #564/738 24th pct Air-game usagevs FBS RB
Ball Security Fumbles lost 1 #78/256 70th pct Turnoversvs FBS RB

Player Standing

Universal 17-step ladder. Tier pills below; accolade streams nested.

AWAITING CLASSIFICATION

On-team2-deepStartingRecognizedEliteApex

AWAITING CLASSIFICATION · Rung None of 16

Why he’s here

Standing classification populates when honors, Heisman, and roster signals all align.

What moves him up

What moves him down

Accolade streams

StatusAwaiting tracker

Heisman model tracks the top FBS contenders weekly; this player hasn't entered the watch list yet.

Splits · Per-game

2025 season · 3 games

Home/Road · Win/Loss · Season halves

Home vs Road

YDS/gYPCTD/g
Home3g25.03.80.0

Win vs Loss

YDS/gYPCTD/g
Wins3g25.03.80.0

First half vs Second half

YDS/gYPCTD/g
Weeks 1-73g25.03.80.0

Pocket and defense-quality (clean vs. pressure) splits are coming soon.

Savant · Box-rate percentiles

Where this profile ranks vs the RB cohort

7Below cohort
6 metrics · season cumulative

Concern: carries (0th).

Fumbles lost#55 / 201 · 49th pct
1fumb
Yards / carry#303 / 349 · 12th pct
3.9rush
Rush TDs#326 / 349 · 3rd pct
0rush
Rush yards#350 / 349 · 0th pct
75rush
Long run#350 / 349 · 0th pct
9rush
Carries#350 / 349 · 0th pct
19rush

Percentiles versus same-position peers with enough snaps this season, based on box-score rates.

Advanced Savant · RB · 2024

Percentile Card

Advanced opponent-adjusted percentile bars are coming soon for this player.

P4G5All FBS
EPA / dropback
awaiting
CPOE
awaiting
Success rate
awaiting
Explosive rate (20+)
awaiting
aDOT
awaiting
Deep-ball accuracy
awaiting
Pressure-to-sack
awaiting
3rd-down EPA
awaiting
Red-zone TD rate
awaiting
Play-action EPA
awaiting
Scramble EPA
awaiting
Turnover-worthy play rate
awaiting

Advanced Savant

Opponent-adjusted advanced metrics with a cohort filter.

Advanced opponent-adjusted metrics are coming soon for this player. Selected cohort: P4.

Peer Comparator · Fingerprint match

Three closest profiles by box-rate percentile

3 peers · 6 metrics
Johnny Thompson Jr.KansasTae MeadowsTroy· 42% simRashod DubinionApp State· 41% simSeth McGowanKentucky· 40% sim
Fumbles lost
49
Jr.
49
Meadows
14
Dubinion
49
McGowan
Yards / carry
12
Jr.
29
Meadows
53
Dubinion
29
McGowan
Rush TDs
3
Jr.
72
Meadows
50
Dubinion
94
McGowan
Rush yards
0
Jr.
74
Meadows
84
Dubinion
76
McGowan
Long run
0
Jr.
53
Meadows
39
Dubinion
11
McGowan
Carries
0
Jr.
84
Meadows
87
Dubinion
85
McGowan

Closest peers by overall box-score percentile profile at the same position.

DNA Match awaiting data — similarity scores compute once season stats clear the volume gate for this position cohort.

Supporting Cast · Scheme

Staff and system around the player

2025 season

Head Coach

Lance Leipold

Pass share

45.1%

344 pass / 419 run

Plays / game

63.6

12 games

OL sack rate (allowed)

6.1%

293 dropbacks · PBP

Scheme: Run-leaning.

Coaching Lineage · 2024–2025

1 coach
2024
Lance Leipold
Kansas
2025
Lance Leipold
Kansas

Played his entire career under Lance Leipold.

Bio · Recruiting · Transfer · Roster

Off-field context — switch tabs to drill into recruit profile, transfer arc, or roster timeline.

HometownCanoga Park, CA
Height5'11"
Weight200 lb
Class2
PositionRB
Jersey20

Trophy Case · Detail

Every honor on the ledger, broken out by stream and selector.

Honors

No formal honors on the ledger yet

All-America, all-conference, player-of-the-week, watch-list, and postseason awards land here when they're earned. The absence is the signal: most players never collect formal honors, and that's its own kind of context.

Honors Timeline

Season-end distinction and week-by-week recognition on one timeline.

Season Honor Scope Team / Selector Context
No formal honors on the ledger yet. All-America, all-conference, weekly awards, watch lists, and postseason trophies land here when they’re earned.

Heisman By Year

Modeled rank and official finish by season.

Season Team Role Latest Model Forecast Win Finalist Official Finish Points Context
2024 Kansas RB2 #1403 #1880 0.0% 0.0% -- -- W16 snapshot | Big 12
2023 Kansas RB2 #2384 #2096 0.0% 0.0% -- -- W19 snapshot | Big 12

Roster Timeline

Team, conference, and class by season.

Season Team Conference Pos Class Bio
2025 Kansas Big 12 RB 2 No. 20 | 5-11 | 200 lb | Canoga Park, CA
2024 Kansas Big 12 RB 2 No. 20 | 5-11 | 200 lb | Canoga Park, CA
2023 Kansas Big 12 RB 2 No. 20 | 5-11 | 200 lb | Canoga Park, CA