Miami (OH)

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Mason Heintschel Throws 7 Touchdowns as Pitt Dominates Miami (OH)our readCincinnati and Miami (OH) set to play first game at TQL Stadiumour readThe Cincinnati rivalry

Mid-American · Chuck Martin, year 13 (73-75) · Yager Stadium · 24,286 · 11,126 avg in 2026

The nationunrankedAP / Coaches
The model#85 CFB ZeitgeistSP+ #104 (-10.0) · FPI #112
The marketCincinnati by 14.5at Cincinnati · our model 42% Miami (OH) · a number, not a pick

LastW 45–7 vs Holy Cross · Sat Sep 12 · David McComb 234 pass yds, 3 TD, 12 rush yds

Nextat Cincinnati · Sat Sep 19 · 3:30 pm ET · TQL Stadium · Cincinnati by 14.5 · series 34-35-1, last win 2023 · Game preview

Updated Tue Sep 15 · through week 2

Key stats — 2026 — FBS rank
Points/game
29.5
Pts allowed/game
33.0
Total yards/gm#100 / 138 · 28th pct
363.0
Rush yards/gmT-#117 / 138 · 15th pct
114.5
Pass yards/gm#62 / 138 · 55th pct
248.5
Yards allowed/gm#110 / 138 · 21st pct
413.5
Rush yds allowed/gm#55 / 138 · 61st pct
103.0
SacksT-#106 / 138 · 16th pct
2
3rd-down conv#86 / 138 · 38th pct
38.1%
All 77 stats
Offense / Defense
Total yards
Team
726363.0/gm6.48/play#100 / 138 · 28th pct#59 / 70 · 16th pct#5 / 13 · 65th pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
827413.5/gm6.95/play#110 / 138 · 21st pct#65 / 70 · 8th pct#8 / 13 · 42nd pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
Rush yards
Team
229114.5/gm2.04/playT-#117 / 138 · 15th pctT-#61 / 70 · 13th pct#11 / 13 · 19th pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
206103.0/gm1.73/play#55 / 138 · 61st pct#42 / 70 · 41st pct#2 / 13 · 88th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
Rush carries
Team
6030.0/gmT-#121 / 138 · 12th pctT-#62 / 70 · 11th pct#11 / 13 · 19th pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
5025.0/gm#8 / 138 · 95th pct#7 / 70 · 91st pct#1 / 13 · 96th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
Rush TDs
Team
31.5/gmT-#77 / 138 · 34th pctT-#45 / 70 · 29th pctT-#4 / 13 · 58th pct#12 / 13 · 15th pct
Opp
10.5/gmT-#24 / 138 · 73rd pctT-#18 / 70 · 64th pctT-#2 / 13 · 77th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
Net pass yards
Team
497248.5/gm4.44/play#62 / 138 · 55th pct#40 / 70 · 44th pct#4 / 13 · 73rd pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
621310.5/gm5.22/play#128 / 138 · 8th pct#68 / 70 · 4th pct#11 / 13 · 19th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
Pass attempts
Team
5226.0/gmT-#91 / 138 · 32nd pctT-#54 / 70 · 22nd pctT-#6 / 13 · 50th pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
6934.5/gmT-#100 / 138 · 26th pctT-#52 / 70 · 26th pctT-#8 / 13 · 38th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
Completions
Team
3316.5/gmT-#92 / 138 · 32nd pctT-#55 / 70 · 21st pctT-#7 / 13 · 46th pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
4723.5/gmT-#119 / 138 · 14th pctT-#61 / 70 · 13th pct#10 / 13 · 27th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
Pass TDs
Team
42.0/gmT-#48 / 138 · 57th pctT-#33 / 70 · 46th pctT-#4 / 13 · 62nd pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
84.0/gm#138 / 138 · 1st pct#70 / 70 · 1st pct#13 / 13 · 4th pct#2 / 13 · 92nd pct
Passer rating allowed#88 / 91 · 4th pct#42 / 42 · 1st pct#9 / 10 · 15th pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
179.1179.1
Interceptions thrown
Team
10.5/gmT-#52 / 138 · 49th pctT-#25 / 70 · 53rd pctT-#6 / 13 · 42nd pct#12 / 13 · 15th pct
Opp
00.0/gmT-#1 / 138 · 92nd pctT-#1 / 70 · 92nd pctT-#1 / 13 · 85th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
Sacks (def)
Team
21.0/gmT-#106 / 138 · 16th pctT-#61 / 70 · 9th pctT-#9 / 13 · 23rd pct#11 / 11 · 9th pct
Opp
21.0/gmT-#33 / 138 · 67th pctT-#20 / 70 · 61st pctT-#3 / 13 · 73rd pct#1 / 11 · 100th pct
Tackles for loss
Team
63.0/gmT-#122 / 138 · 9th pctT-#65 / 70 · 6th pct#10 / 13 · 27th pct#11 / 11 · 9th pct
Opp
63.0/gmT-#20 / 138 · 83rd pctT-#15 / 70 · 77th pctT-#1 / 13 · 92nd pct#1 / 11 · 100th pct
First downs
Team
3919.5/gmT-#92 / 138 · 32nd pctT-#52 / 70 · 24th pct#5 / 13 · 65th pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
4321.5/gmT-#101 / 138 · 26th pctT-#61 / 70 · 12th pctT-#6 / 13 · 54th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
3rd-down conv
Team
84.0/gmT-#104 / 138 · 21st pctT-#57 / 70 · 15th pctT-#9 / 13 · 27th pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
105.0/gmT-#66 / 138 · 48th pctT-#42 / 70 · 35th pctT-#5 / 13 · 62nd pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
3rd-down att
Team
2110.5/gmT-#114 / 138 · 15th pctT-#57 / 70 · 16th pctT-#11 / 13 · 15th pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
2010.0/gmT-#6 / 138 · 95th pctT-#2 / 70 · 97th pctT-#2 / 13 · 85th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
4th-down conv
Team
10.5/gmT-#85 / 138 · 29th pctT-#44 / 70 · 32nd pctT-#8 / 13 · 27th pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
00.0/gmT-#1 / 138 · 91st pctT-#1 / 70 · 89th pctT-#1 / 13 · 88th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
4th-down att
Team
10.5/gmT-#119 / 138 · 9th pctT-#55 / 70 · 14th pct#13 / 13 · 4th pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
21.0/gmT-#20 / 138 · 74th pctT-#10 / 70 · 72nd pctT-#2 / 13 · 77th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
Time of possession
Team
64:2332:12/gm#48 / 138 · 66th pct#23 / 70 · 68th pct#5 / 13 · 65th pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
55:3727:48/gm#39 / 138 · 72nd pct#23 / 70 · 68th pct#3 / 13 · 81st pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct

FBS rankings · 2026 season · all stats vs 136 FBS programs

Player stats — 2026 season
Quarterbacks
Player#GCmp/AttPctYdsY/ATDINTRateZPRQBRAdj ANY/ASack%
+0.73 EPA/play16229 / 4663.0474
#53 FBS		10.34
#36 FBS		0178.3—94.5——
Receivers
Player#GRecYdsAvgTDLong
+1.36 EPA/play102810413128
+0.19 EPA/play1267712.8028

2026 stat leaders · Miami (OH)

through 2 games

Malcolm Mccain leads Miami (OH) with 12 tackles through 2 games.

1. Malcolm Mccain LB 12 tackles
2. David McComb QB 474 passing yards
3. Toney Coleman Jr. DB 9 tackles
4. Lynel Billups-Williams WR 104 receiving yards
5. Damarion Witten WR 100 receiving yards
How They Play · 2025

Miami (OH) fields a struggling offense behind a strong, bend-don't-break defense.

Offense
21st pct EPA/play
Defense
76th pct EPA allowed
Defensive shape
69th pct at limiting explosive plays

Percentile vs all FBS, based on this season's per-game production. Bar = where this team ranks — right is better.

The Savant Card · Miami (OH) · 2025

Miami (OH) reads strongest in epa allowed (top 24%) and success rate allowed (top 31%); the crux lives in success rate, where Miami (OH) sits at the 20th percentile.

offense · strengths lead

EPA / play +0.09
21st
Success Rate +0.39
20th
Explosive Plays +1.20
28th
Rushing EPA +0.05
28th

defense · higher bar = harder to play against

EPA Allowed +0.08
76th
Success Rate Allowed +0.39
69th
Explosive Plays Allowed +1.21
69th
Passing EPA Allowed +0.18
67th

hidden math · special situations

Passing EPA +0.21
36th
Rushing EPA Allowed +0.05
65th
Elite · 90+Strong · 70+Average · 40-70Concern · 10-40Bottom · <10
Sources · CFBD tier-2 advanced stats · per-game production · 14 games this season · percentiles vs. up to 136 FBS peers

Home-field advantage · Miami (OH) · 2018–present · FBS opponents

Miami (OH) is worth +6.5 points more at home than on the road.

Top third of FBS, 88th percentile of 133 programs

74% at home, 47% away against FBS opponents since 2018 (25–9 home, 22–25 away). Interval ±3.9.

95% intervalmodel 2.3 · books ~3Weakest home edge in FBSStrongest

Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge — per-team modelling was tested and did not survive scrutiny (why) — and the books use about 3. Against the closing line, Miami (OH) has beaten the number by −0.5 more at home than away over 72 games — inside the ±5.8 that many games can resolve. Results here cannot tell the flat number apart from the building, and that is the honest reading of nearly every FBS stadium.

Yager Stadium seats 24,286 and has averaged 53% full (12,892, 23 games reported). Visitors get here easily: a median 201 miles trip since 2018, the 9th-shortest of 135 FBS venues. Whatever the band above is picking up, it isn't the flight. For the home side it is genuinely home ground: 26% of the 2026 roster (31 of 118 located players) grew up inside 100 miles of the stadium.

Edge = half the gap between average home margin and average road margin, FBS opponents only, non-neutral games since 2018; the interval is 95%. Market line: closing spread, seasons with lines on file. Trip length is straight-line miles from the visiting team's campus to the venue, measured across all 40 home games since 2018.

Home25–9Away22–25Edge+6.5 ±3.9Visitor trip201 mi

More in this tab

Tendency driftHow this coordinator's calls have drifted since arriving.

Season by season

How Miami (OH)’s current staff calls plays, year over year

Defense: Bill Brechin (2022–2026)
1st-down pass rate
2022: 42% → 2026: 56% · 21-pt range · #15 of 203 · more than most
Red-zone pass rate
2022: 44% → 2025: 37% · 22-pt range · #32 of 200 · more than most
4th-down go rate
2022: 26% → 2025: 31% · 17-pt range · #89 of 189 · a typical amount
RatingsWhere the public rating systems put this team.

Model Consensus

Where the Models Rank Miami (OH)

CFB Zeitgeist

#85

-1.4

SP+

#104

-10.0

FPI

#112

-10.7

Elo

#125

1252

The national models put Miami (OH) between 104th and 125th nationally — CFB Zeitgeist is higher on them than any of these models, at 85th.

National rank of 138 FBS teams · 2026 season. SP+/FPI/SRS published; Elo & CFB Zeitgeist ranked by rating.

Comparable teamsPrograms built like this one — tier, prestige band, kind of fanbase, roster size. Not a stat match.

Most similar programs · Miami (OH)

Reads like

AkronMid-AmericanSame tier of program · Same prestige band · Similarly-sized rosters up frontApp StateSun BeltSame tier of program · Same prestige band · Similarly-sized rosters up frontArkansas StateSun BeltSame tier of program · Same prestige band · Similarly-sized rosters up front

Matched on how the programs are built — tier, prestige band, kind of fanbase, conference, voice and roster size — not on this season's stats. A calibration, not a prediction.

ConditionsThe weather and altitude visitors have to deal with.
Venue texture

63°F average kickoff temp; 14% of games had measurable precipitation; 7 mph average wind.

Based on 64 home games with weather data.

This page may include content derived from public news sources, social media, and fan communities. We relay these sources as-is — we are not reporting them. Sources may be summarized or quoted imperfectly; for anything that matters, go look at the original source directly. The original source may also be wrong. AI-generated content is labeled and may contain factual errors. All analysis is editorial opinion, not professional reporting. Data sources · About this site