Dave Doeren

Head coach · NC State
14th season · since 2013 · Northern Illinois before

At NC State99-74since 2013 · 4-4 this season Last gameW 31-10vs California · Oct 31

Now

Career arc

Bowls and playoffs: 5-6

Northern Illinois’11WNC State’14W’15L’16W’17W’18L’20L’22L’23L’24L’25W

Show all 11 games

Northern Illinois

2011GoDaddy.com BowlW 38-20

NC State

2014St. Petersburg BowlW 34-27

2015Belk BowlL 28-51

2016Independence BowlW 41-17

2017Sun BowlW 52-31

2018Gator BowlL 13-52

2020Gator BowlL 21-23

2022Duke's Mayo BowlL 12-16

2023Pop-Tarts BowlL 19-28

2024Military BowlL 21-26

2025Gasparilla BowlW 31-7

Right now

4-4 this season

National Program I#41 of 138

L Virginia 8-34

W Richmond 73-0

L Vanderbilt 31-35

W App State 41-31

W Louisville 31-28

L Wake Forest 14-38

L Stanford 28-31

W California 31-10

After California: what changed

Last game

W 31-10

vs. California · won as a 9.5-point favorite

AP poll

Unranked

before and after

Playoff odds

<0.1% → <0.1%

CFB Zeitgeist forecast, before → after

On track for

6-6

regular season, from the win chances below

What’s left

Nov. 7vs. DUKE60%
Nov. 14vs. SYR65%
Nov. 21at FSU47%
Nov. 28at UNC50%

Chance to win each game, from the CFB Zeitgeist forecast ratings with home field. #N = AP rank in the latest poll.

Fans are feeling good about NC State

Who's inviting people in the free expression tunnel to bible study? Said no thanks, just wondering what group this was
EASIEST classes at NCSU I need to boost my GPA. What are the easiest classes at NCSU. Classes that even middle schoolers could pass?
Graduate School Apps For those who have applied to the graduate school, after all of your rec letters were submitted, about how long was the department review process before you heard back? Just curious. Thanks!

Fan mood · last 3 weeks · more upbeat than 3 in 4 FBS fan bases

This season, week by week

Composite stature after each game — the number above each point.

Report card

Above the median on both sides of the ball — 60th percentile offense, 64th percentile defense.

NC State, every completed season graded against the whole field, then averaged.

Offense

of which —60th

efficiency — 60th percentile success rate, 2013–25

B-57th

Standard-downs success

B65th

Passing-downs success

B-55th

Trench push (line yards)

B-54th

Red-zone scoring rate

B-56th

Power-success (short yardage)

B60th

Ball security (giveaways per game)

Defense

of which —64th

64th percentile SP+ defense, 2014–25 (SP+ starts 2014)

B-57th

Front-7 havoc

A83rd

Secondary havoc

B+75th

Stuff rate (run defense)

C+48th

Takeaways per game

Each season is his team’s percentile among every team with that stat (the share it beat), averaged over his completed seasons here; a mid-season takeover year and the season in progress aren’t graded. Letters: A+ 90th percentile and up, A 80, B+ 70, B 60, B− 50, C+ 45, C 40, C− 30, D 15, F below.

Hot seat

See every job →

Left the job

Hot seat: no longer the head coach · left October 24.

He left the job on October 24; Todd Goebbel is the interim head coach. How every job is measured.

Poach watch

Not rated

He no longer holds this job, so there is no number for him here.

Stats

Big games

Pick a job to see its years on their own.

Northern Illinois2011–12 · 23-4NC State2013–26 · 99-74All jobs122-78

The big-game ledger

How he does in the games that matter most — rivalry record, performance broken out by real opponent tier, one-score games, and his toughest historical matchup.

2-0 against his rivals at Northern Illinois.

Rivalry record

2-0

100.0% · 2 rivals

One-score games

5-2

71.4% · margin ≤8

Against the spread

No lines

no betting lines before 2013

Rivalry ledger

Toledo1-0100%

Ball State1-0100%

Performance by opponent class

Power Program

0-1 0.0%

Regional Program

10-2 83.3%

Signature games

1-1 vs. AP top 25 · 0-1 vs. the top 10

Signature wins

Arkansas State · 2011

38-20

Quality opponentBowl/CFP stakes

Toledo · 2012

31-24

RivalQuality opponent

Ball State · 2012

35-23

RivalQuality opponent

Signature losses

Wisconsin · 2011

7-49

Central Michigan · 2011

41-48

Kansas · 2011

42-45

Tags describe each game; they aren’t scores. The weighting that picks these games is still being tested.

The big-game ledger

How he does in the games that matter most — rivalry record, performance broken out by real opponent tier, one-score games, and his toughest historical matchup.

13-7 against his rivals at NC State. Winless in 4 tries against Manny Diaz.

Rivalry record

13-7

65.0% · 2 rivals

ATS 8-12 · all 20 had a line

One-score games

33-25

56.9% · margin ≤8

Against Blue Bloods or better

4-11

26.7%

ATS 9-6 · all 15 had a line

Against the spread

80-91-2

−0.7 pts a game vs. the line

all 173 had a line

Rivalry ledger

North Carolina9-469%ATS 6-7 13 of 13

East Carolina4-357%ATS 2-5 7 of 7

The toughest matchup

vs. Manny Diaz0-4

4 meetings, 2020–2025

’20 L · blew a 10-pt lead’21 L · blew a 3-pt lead’24 L’25 L · blew a 13-pt lead

covered the spread

0% win rate across a real, 4-meeting series — short of the bar this site uses before badging a series “Nemesis.” Shown here as the toughest matchup on record, not an algorithmic crown.

Performance by opponent class

Dynasty

0-1 0.0%ATS —

Blue Blood

4-10 28.6%ATS 9-5 14 of 14

Power Program

9-23 28.1%ATS 12-20 32 of 32

National Program

38-26 59.4%ATS 31-32-1 64 of 64

Regional Program

35-14 71.4%ATS 21-28 49 of 49

Signature games

8-26 vs. AP top 25 · 2-12 vs. the top 10

Every AP-ranked regular-season opponent, by rank (#1 at top) and year

win loss · higher = higher-ranked opponent · dashed line = top 10

Signature wins

Arizona State · 2017

52-31

Quality opponentBowl/CFP stakes

Memphis · 2025

31-7

Quality opponentBowl/CFP stakes

North Carolina · 2025

42-19

RivalQuality opponent

Signature losses

North Carolina · 2019

10-41

Rival

Texas A&M · 2018

13-52

Bowl/CFP stakes

North Carolina · 2020

21-48

Rival

Tags describe each game; they aren’t scores. The weighting that picks these games is still being tested.

The big-game ledger

How he does in the games that matter most — rivalry record, performance broken out by real opponent tier, one-score games, and his toughest historical matchup.

15-7 against his rivals. Winless in 4 tries against Manny Diaz.

Rivalry record

15-7

68.2% · 4 rivals

ATS 8-12 · 20 of 22 had a line

One-score games

38-27

58.5% · margin ≤8

Against Blue Bloods or better

4-11

26.7%

ATS 9-6 · all 15 had a line

Against the spread

80-91-2

−0.7 pts a game vs. the line

173 of 187 had a line

Rivalry ledger

North Carolina9-469%ATS 6-7 13 of 13

East Carolina4-357%ATS 2-5 7 of 7

Toledo1-0100%ATS —

Ball State1-0100%ATS —

The toughest matchup

vs. Manny Diaz0-4

4 meetings, 2020–2025

’20 L · blew a 10-pt lead’21 L · blew a 3-pt lead’24 L’25 L · blew a 13-pt lead

covered the spread

0% win rate across a real, 4-meeting series — short of the bar this site uses before badging a series “Nemesis.” Shown here as the toughest matchup on record, not an algorithmic crown.

Performance by opponent class

Dynasty

0-1 0.0%ATS —

Blue Blood

4-10 28.6%ATS 9-5 14 of 14

Power Program

9-24 27.3%ATS 12-20 32 of 33

National Program

38-26 59.4%ATS 31-32-1 64 of 64

Regional Program

45-16 73.8%ATS 21-28 49 of 61

Signature games

9-27 vs. AP top 25 · 2-13 vs. the top 10

Every AP-ranked regular-season opponent, by rank (#1 at top) and year

win loss · higher = higher-ranked opponent · dashed line = top 10

Signature wins

Arizona State · 2017

52-31

Quality opponentBowl/CFP stakes

Memphis · 2025

31-7

Quality opponentBowl/CFP stakes

North Carolina · 2025

42-19

RivalQuality opponent

Signature losses

North Carolina · 2019

10-41

Rival

Texas A&M · 2018

13-52

Bowl/CFP stakes

North Carolina · 2020

21-48

Rival

Tags describe each game; they aren’t scores. The weighting that picks these games is still being tested.

ATS is his record against the spread: did his team beat the closing betting line, winning by more than it or losing by less? Lines start in 2013; a dash means fewer than 6 of those games had one. One-score games carry no spread record: a big favorite that wins a close game has almost always failed to cover, so that number would say nothing about the coach.

How he plays

more pass-heavy than 57% of FBS coaches →

Run/pass mix, by field position

Passed more than the situation called for under Drinkwitz, Kitchings/McDonald, Beck and Roper.

11,146 run and pass snaps at NC State, 2013–2025, his own games, one row per offensive coordinator. Each cell is how much more often he passed than the rest of FBS did in the same situation (field zone, down, distance, score, quarter, same season), in percentage points.

backed upown territorymidfieldopp. territoryred zoneOC unrecorded2013−10−5+10+3Canada2014–15−12+2−2+4+2Drinkwitz2016–18+8+9+7+2−2Kitchings/McDonald2019+5+7+5+60Beck2020–22−2+5+6+8+5Anae2023–24−7+1+10+4Roper2025−5+6+2+7+6All years2013–25−2+5+4+4+2

passed moreran morewithin noise (95% range includes 0)

Pass rate, stint by stint

Where each stint’s offense sat between run-first and pass-first, and how far it moved from one season to the next, against the FBS-wide average of 41% pass. The band is that stint’s real season-to-season range, not a fixed-width box.

Pass rate — share of offensive plays that were pass attemptsfirst covered seasonmost recent covered seasonfull season-to-season range (3+ covered seasons)

How much that is, against every other stint

Season-to-season pass-rate range for all 449 FBS coaching stints with at least three covered seasons, 2004–2025.

Typical stint7.010.3 median14.8middle half of all stints

NC State11.5pt#189 of 449 · a typical amount

Building the roster

Six numbers on how he actually stocks a roster, from signing day to draft day.

1His recruiting
2Who followed him
3Roster ownership
4Size up front
5Where he recruits
6The NFL pipeline

His recruiting, really

#39Nationally, his own classes

His 9 ranked NC State classes of his own have averaged #39 nationally — best #26, worst #64.

2018

#26

His class

2019

#31

His class

2020

#41

His class

2021

#34

His class

2022

#64

His class

2023

#43

His class

2024

#27

His class

2025

#34

His class

2026

#49

His class

His class — he had the full signing cycle

Rank is each signing class’s national recruiting rank (#1 is best). Only a class he had a full signing cycle to build counts as his.

Followed him here

Northern Illinois→

NC State2013

No confirmed followers on this move. This move predates this database’s 2021 transfer-portal tracking floor, so real followers may be undercounted here.

Players who transferred from his old program to his new one through the portal in the same year he made the move. Name-matching across data sources misses some, so every count is a floor, not an exact number.

Roster ownership

100%His own players

of his 2026 roster arrived on his watch — 126 of 126 players. Nobody is left from before he was hired.

Of his own players on this roster, 19% came through the transfer portal; the rest are non-portal arrivals (high-school signees, JUCO transfers, walk-ons).

This tenure spans the 2021 transfer-portal tracking floor: seasons before 2021 structurally cannot be classified portal-vs-not (they land in 'unknown' below), so the portal-share figure understates how many pre-2021 arrivals might have been transfers under the pre-portal-tracking transfer rules.

New players each season, 2022–2026

20% of his 251 new players since 2022 came through the portal (FBS programs, same seasons: 23%). His share was 9% in 2022 and 26% in 2026.

Graded on the players who arrived and the players who left together, his portal seasons came out worse than most FBS programs’ in 2 of the 5 seasons graded. our read

20223 of 35Portal grade: worse than most — #108 of 131 FBS programs that season

20235 of 51Portal grade: worse than most — #103 of 130 FBS programs that season

202412 of 54Portal grade: about typical for FBS that season

202515 of 54Portal grade: about typical for FBS that season

202615 of 57Portal grade: about typical for FBS that season

Came through the portalNon-portal arrivalsFBS-wide share that season

Each player counts once, in the season he arrived. 2021, the first season of portal tracking here, is left off because its arrival records look incomplete (about 31 new players per FBS team, against 52 in 2022). Portal grade: the site’s position-value-weighted scoring (the same engine as the Portal Heat feed and the “Who won the portal” grade): the value of the players who came in minus the value of the ones who left, ranked against every FBS program’s grade that same season. A season with fewer than 4 transfers in and out is not graded.

“His own” means the player arrived while he was head coach; “inherited” means a predecessor brought him in.

Size up front

+2 lbAgainst the FBS average

Offensive linemen on his NC State rosters have averaged within a few pounds of the FBS average (2013–2026). In the three seasons before he arrived, NC State’s line averaged 4 lb heavier than the FBS average.

NC State2013–2026+2 lb

His seasonsSame program, the seasons before he arrivedMiddle half of FBS coaching runs since 2010

Average listed weight of every offensive lineman on each season’s roster, holdovers included, against every FBS roster that season (2010 on; a program needs 3+ seasons under him to appear). Weights are the ones programs publish, and programs list differently. This describes size only — not scheme, and not quality.

Where he recruits

NCTop state

is his biggest recruiting state: 115 of 272 signees (42%) across his 2013–2026 tenure, drawn from 25 states in all. Next: FL (45).

Where his signees came from, 2013–2026 (272 high-school, JUCO and prep signees)

66% of his signees come from NC and its 4 border states (GA 37, SC 14, VA 10, TN 3).

Off this map: 6 signees to the west (CA 2, TX 2, others).

By region

South

245

Midwest

Northeast

West

Roster distance from campus (Carter-Finley Stadium, NC)

median hometown distance: 305 mi
within 100 mi: 18%
within 500 mi: 68%
beyond 1,000 mi: 10%

122 of 126 roster players with a known hometown (97% coverage)

The map counts signed recruits across his tenure; the distance figures cover his current roster, transfers and walk-ons included. Two different groups, kept separate on purpose.

The NFL pipeline

29Drafted

players drafted into the NFL off his teams here. He brought in 27 of them himself; 2 arrived under Tom O'Brien. 3 went in the first round.

His recruits 27Inherited 229 roster-verified · 0 estimated

Most recent picks first

Year	Pick	Player	Pos	NFL team
2026	R5.12	Justin Joly	Tight End	Denver Broncos
2026	R7.13	Brandon Cleveland	Defensive Tackle	Las Vegas Raiders
2025	R2.22	Anthony Belton	Offensive Tackle	Green Bay Packers
2024	R3.35	Payton Wilson	Linebacker	Pittsburgh Steelers
2024	R6.14	Dylan McMahon	Offensive Guard	Philadelphia Eagles
2023	R4.12	Chandler Zavala	Offensive Guard	Carolina Panthers
2022	R1.06	Ikem Ekwonu	Offensive Tackle	Carolina Panthers
2022	R7.34	Trenton Gill	Punter	Chicago Bears

Year	Pick	Player	Pos	NFL team	Note
2021	R3.08	Alim McNeill	Defensive Tackle	Detroit Lions
2020	R5.29	Larrell Murchison	Defensive Tackle	Tennessee Titans
2020	R7.15	James Smith-Williams	Defensive End	Washington Football Team
2019	R1.18	Garrett Bradbury	Center	Minnesota Vikings
2019	R3.08	Germaine Pratt	Outside Linebacker	Cincinnati Bengals
2019	R4.02	Ryan Finley	Quarterback	Cincinnati Bengals
2019	R6.33	Kelvin Harmon	Wide Receiver	Washington Redskins
2018	R1.05	Bradley Chubb	Defensive End	Denver Broncos
2018	R3.05	B.J. Hill	Defensive Tackle	New York Giants
2018	R3.20	Justin Jones	Defensive Tackle	Los Angeles Chargers
2018	R4.04	Nyheim Hines	Running Back	Indianapolis Colts
2018	R4.28	Kentavius Street	Defensive End	San Francisco 49ers
2018	R4.29	Will Richardson	Offensive Tackle	Jacksonville Jaguars
2018	R5.28	Jaylen Samuels	Fullback	Pittsburgh Steelers
2017	R2.29	Josh Jones	Safety	Green Bay Packers
2017	R7.27	Jack Tocho	Cornerback	Minnesota Vikings
2017	R7.34	Matthew Dayes	Running Back	Cleveland Browns
2016	R3.15	Joe Thuney	Offensive Guard	New England Patriots
2016	R3.28	Jacoby Brissett	Quarterback	New England Patriots
2016	R4.20	Juston Burris	Cornerback	New York Jets	recruited under Tom O'Brien
2014	R4.29	Dontae Johnson	Cornerback	San Francisco 49ers	recruited under Tom O'Brien

A pick counts toward his tenure when the player’s final college season was one he coached, a checkable rule rather than a claim about who developed the player. A blank note means the player is on a verified roster and arrived on his watch. “Estimated” means no roster record, so the final season is assumed to be the year before the draft.

Career

Coaching career

2 conference titles

See NC State’s full coaching history →

The arc of his career is on Now.

Steady no large move in either direction on our stature ladder

2013–now

NC State Steady

National Program II → National Program I

Closest comparable run: Jason Candle’s Toledo run (2015–2025)

Dave Doeren moved NC State from National Program II to National Program I in 14 seasons.

+3.5 pts over 14 seasons · bottom 17% of 10+-season tenures (202 in sample)

4th-best NC State tenure of 15 by the numbers.

Followed Tom O'Brien (2007–2012).

System Shift, on arrival

Season	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
Record & result
Record	3-9	8-5	7-6	7-6	9-4	9-4	4-8	8-4	9-3	8-5	9-4	6-7	8-5	4-4
Postseason	—	W bowl	L bowl	W bowl	W bowl	L bowl	—	L bowl	—	L bowl	L bowl	L bowl	W bowl	—
Coordinators
OC	—	Matt Canada	Matt Canada	Eliah Drinkwitz	Eliah Drinkwitz	Eliah Drinkwitz	George McDonald / Desmond Kitchings	George McDonald / Tim Beck	Tim Beck	Tim Beck	Robert Anae	Robert Anae	Kurt Roper	Kurt Roper
DC	—	Dave Huxtable	Dave Huxtable	Dave Huxtable	Dave Huxtable	Ted Roof / Dave Huxtable	Tony Gibson / Dave Huxtable	Tony Gibson	Tony Gibson	Tony Gibson	Tony Gibson	Tony Gibson	Charlton Warren / D. J. Eliot	Charlton Warren / D. J. Eliot
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense	28	80	65	42	85	57	8	52	60	16	46	77	78	63
Defense	26	54	48	82	55	28	21	57	94	82	78	26	47	27
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script
1st-down pass%	35.1	45.3	39.9	40.4	44.4	45.5	47.1	43.3	47.8	46.5	44.8	46.9	38.7	38.9
Red-zone pass%	43.2	43.7	36.8	26.4	36.1	40.7	38.4	35.2	54.2	47.1	44.9	42.2	43.4	37.8
4th-down go%opp. territory	30.2	17.9	37.2	38.1	44.4	27.5	31.6	17.1	15.2	26.4	20.5	26.2	38.5	35.3

Recruiter or developer?

Performs about as expected for his recruiting talent, on both sides of the ball.

Offense vs. talent

-2.7 pts

#124 of 208 · middle half

Defense vs. talent

+0.7 pts

#95 of 208 · middle half

Recruiting talent is team-wide (no offense/defense split exists in the source data) -- both sides are scored against the same talent input, only the outcome is side-specific.

Who they bring in

Brings in bigger-than-position-typical players than most.

Recruits younger transfers than most — more of a development bet.

Avg. size (raw)

6′2″, 238 lbs

across 51 of 65 arrivals — unadjusted for position mix

Size vs. position-typical

+7.8 lbs

#38 of 255 · top quarter

Avg. class year

#226 of 255 · bottom quarter

Avg. portal rating

3.1★

rated arrivals only

Top states: NC (9), FL (7), TX (5), GA (4), VA (4)

Notable portal arrivals with a modeled NIL value

Hollywood Smothers On3 modeled · $1,000,000

On3’s modeled estimate (social reach / exposure), not money actually paid — shown per player, never totaled.

Who won the portal our read

Talent added

59.3

position-weighted

Talent lost

62.4

position-weighted

Net

-3.1

arrivals minus departures

Best addition: Brennan Armstrong (QB) from Virginia

Biggest loss: Devin Leary (QB) to Kentucky

Position-value-weighted (QB/CB weighted highest, depth-decayed within each position) — the same scoring engine as the Portal Heat feed, not a separate grade.

Does the system survive a coordinator change?

OC: Matt Canada → Eliah Drinkwitz · 2016The system held

2-season window either side.

1st-down pass rate: 42.6% → 42.4% (-0.2 pts)

Confound, shown not hidden: only 56% of offensive production returned the year the coordinator changed — the roster turned over at the same time, not just the play-caller.

OC: Eliah Drinkwitz → George McDonald (co) / Desmond Kitchings (co) · 2019

1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.

1st-down pass rate: 45.5% → 47.1% (+1.6 pts)

Confound, shown not hidden: only 13% of offensive production returned the year the coordinator changed — the roster turned over at the same time, not just the play-caller.

OC: George McDonald (co) / Desmond Kitchings (co) → George McDonald (co) / Tim Beck · 2020

1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.

1st-down pass rate: 47.1% → 43.3% (-3.8 pts)

Confound, shown not hidden: only 60% of offensive production returned the year the coordinator changed — the roster turned over at the same time, not just the play-caller.

OC: George McDonald (co) / Tim Beck → Tim Beck · 2021

1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.

1st-down pass rate: 43.3% → 47.8% (+4.5 pts)

Confound, shown not hidden: only 66% of offensive production returned the year the coordinator changed — the roster turned over at the same time, not just the play-caller.

OC: Tim Beck → Robert Anae · 2023The offense improved

2-season window either side.

1st-down pass rate: 47.2% → 45.8% (-1.3 pts)

Confound, shown not hidden: only 38% of offensive production returned the year the coordinator changed — the roster turned over at the same time, not just the play-caller.

OC: Robert Anae → Kurt Roper · 2025The system held

2-season window either side.

1st-down pass rate: 45.8% → 38.8% (-7.1 pts)

Confound, shown not hidden: only 95% of offensive production returned the year the coordinator changed — the roster turned over at the same time, not just the play-caller.

DC: Dave Huxtable (co) → Ted Roof (co) / Dave Huxtable (co) · 2018

1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.

DC: Ted Roof (co) / Dave Huxtable (co) → Tony Gibson (co) / Dave Huxtable (co) · 2019

1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.

DC: Tony Gibson (co) / Dave Huxtable (co) → Tony Gibson · 2020

1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.

Where the roster comes from, by position

Grows Long snapper from high school

100%

#13 of 13 stints

Grows Kicker from high school

80%

#52 of 56 stints

Postseason detail2014: Beat UCF 34-27 Bitcoin St. Petersburg Bowl2015: Lost to Mississippi State 28-51 Bowl2016: Beat Vanderbilt 41-17 Camping World Independence Bowl2017: Beat Arizona State 52-31 Bowl2018: Lost to Texas A&M 13-52 Bowl2020: Lost to Kentucky 21-23 TaxSlayer Gator Bowl2022: Lost to Maryland 12-16 Duke's Mayo Bowl2023: Lost to Kansas State 19-28 Pop-Tarts Bowl2024: Lost to East Carolina 21-26 Go Bowling Military Bowl2025: Beat Memphis 31-7 Union Home Mortgage Gasparilla Bowl

6 player-seasons honored (All-America / national award): Bradley Chubb (2017), Alim McNeill (2020), Zonovan Knight (2021), Ikem Ekwonu (2021), Christopher Dunn (2022), Payton Wilson (2023)

AI Narratives — “NC State's Final Surge” and 4 more on the team page.

99-74

2011–2012

Northern Illinois Steady

Regional Program I → National Program III

Dave Doeren moved Northern Illinois from Regional Program I to National Program III in 2 seasons.

Followed Jerry Kill (2008–2010) · succeeded by Rod Carey (2012–2018).

System Shift, on arrival

System Shift, on departure

Season	2011	2012
Record & result
Record	11-3	12-1
Postseason	W bowl	—
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense	88	47
Defense	63	75
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script
1st-down pass%	29.9	37.0
Red-zone pass%	33.1	31.7
4th-down go%opp. territory	25.0	37.8

Where the roster comes from, by position

Grows Tight end from high school

100%

#164 of 188 stints

Grows Edge from high school

100%

#191 of 208 stints

Postseason detail2011: Beat Arkansas State 38-20 GODADDY.com BOWL

1 NFL Draft pick: Chandler Harnish (2012)

23-4

All-time wins

Wins at programs this site tracks, 1936–present — one consistent count for every coach, not each program’s own historically reported total.

1st all-time at NC State

Was he good?

Program lift

#5 in the ACC

#31 of 79 current FBS coaches with 3+ seasons · tied #468 of 1,290 tenures since 1937

Every angle here comes back inconclusive — not enough separation from zero to call it either way.

Raised the program

+3.5 pts at NC State · #468 of 1290 · middle half

Beat his talent

Offense vs. talent

-2.7 pts

#124 of 208 · middle half · 11 covered seasons

Defense vs. talent

+0.7 pts

#95 of 208 · middle half · 11 covered seasons

His own effect, isolated?

Offense marginal impact

+0.01

not distinguishable from zero

Defense marginal impact

+0.04

not distinguishable from zero

Model fit as of 2026-09-04.

Dave Doeren

Now

Career arc

Right now

After California: what changed

What’s left

Fans are feeling good about NC State

This season, week by week

Report card

Offense

Defense

Hot seat

Poach watch

Fans

Many stories about him this week

What they’re talking about

Dozens of stories about him this season

What they’re talking about

What was said at each stop

219 stories about him across 16 seasons

Stats

Big games

The big-game ledger

Signature games

The big-game ledger

Signature games

The big-game ledger

Signature games

How he plays

Run/pass mix, by field position

Building the roster

His recruiting, really

Followed him here

Roster ownership

Size up front

Where he recruits

The NFL pipeline

News

Stories about him

This week

This season

What others say about him

What others say

In his own words

Career

Coaching career

All-time wins

Was he good?