Oregon State beats UTEP 33-7
Team pages: Oregon State · UTEP
Oregon State beat UTEP 33-7. Share this game
We had Oregon State favored. It won.
Top comment in the game thread
Atkinson to Legree is creating a legend
How it swung
Before kickoff, our ratings gave Oregon State an 80% chance, and the closing betting line (Oregon State was a 11.5-point favorite) put it at 82%.
Favored the whole way: Oregon State never fell below 73%.
UTEP never had better than a 27% chance.
Oregon State 33-7 UTEP
Oregon State wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.UTEP 7-33 Oregon StateUTEP lostMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.No single play moved the chance by 20 points.
No single play moved the chance by 20 points.
What fans said, play by play
The line in bold above each quote is written by our model from the thread’s comments and the play-by-play.
- Q3 6:16Atkinson throws touchdown pass to Legree as Oregon State extends lead to 27-7Quoted at the top of the page.
TD Beavs!
r/CFB game thread
How to read this chart
Starts from the pregame line (Oregon State -11.5), at 73% for Oregon State (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. The gray band is r/CFB game-thread activity, its loudest stretches in gold.Every drive
Oregon State scored on 6 of its 10 drives; UTEP on 1 of its 10.
Oregon State’s drives are teal, UTEP’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.
“Had to finish our game and take a victory lap, but here for Shep now”
How fans reacted
Steady
It was the third quarter that had fans talking the most.
The jump was steady; the crowd was quiet.
What it cost
Oregon State’s chance to win the conference rose from 9% to 10%.
Win the conference
Before the game (September 25, 2026) → after this result, in our model.
Box score
Oregon State 33, UTEP 7
Oregon State covered −11.5 by 14.5. The total, 40, stayed under 56.5.
| Team totals | Oregon State | UTEP |
|---|---|---|
| Total yards | 451 | 222 |
| Passing | 24 of 34, 301 yds | 18 of 25, 130 yds |
| Rushing | 23 for 150 yds | 41 for 92 yds |
| First downs | 25 | 18 |
| Third down | 4 of 8 | 3 of 12 |
| Fourth down | 0 of 1 | 2 of 4 |
| Turnovers | 1 | 1 |
| Penalties | 11 for 120 yds | 10 for 89 yds |
| Time of possession | 25:37 | 34:23 |
Oregon State leaders
- Passing Braden Atkinson 24 of 34, 301 yds, 3 TD, 1 INT
- Rushing AJ Newberry 11 for 111 yds, 1 TD; Cornell Hatcher Jr. 6 for 19 yds
- Receiving Jesse Legree 6 for 109 yds, 2 TD; Eric Olsen 5 for 79 yds
UTEP leaders
- Passing EJ Colson 16 of 23, 119 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
- Rushing Tavorus Jones 10 for 34 yds; Elijah McCoy 2 for 25 yds
- Receiving Jaden Smith 8 for 62 yds; Carver Cheeks 4 for 46 yds, 1 TD
No rain and calm
85° at kickoff · no rain recorded · wind 5 mph from the north, gusts to 9
September game-day temperatures at Sun Bowl
Drag along the chart, or step through the game.
Where this weather comes from
Measured at El Paso International Airport, 8.2 miles away. Rain is NOAA's radar-and-gauge estimate at the stadium and wind is an airport reading; neither is measured on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet; rain radar from NOAA MRMS, through Iowa State University. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.Before kickoff
Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.
Recent games
Last three games
Oregon State · 1-2
Rated 69th in our preseason ratings, 64th now.
1-2 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.
Last three games
UTEP · 1-2
Rated 212th in our preseason ratings, 176th now, up 36 spots.
1-2 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.
L 0-51 @ OklahomaTop 25 #19 of 668
lost by 51 as a 40.5-point underdog
Week by week
UTEP
- Wk 1Lat Oklahoma0-51
- Wk 2Wvs Texas Southern51-10
- Wk 3Lat Michigan17-52
Oregon State
- Wk 1Lat Houston20-33
- Wk 2Lvs Texas Tech24-35
- Wk 3Wvs Montana52-17
Power rating by week
Oregon State is rated 8.9 points ahead as of week 3. Our power rating by week; higher is better.
Matchups
Biggest mismatch: Oregon State’s passing EPA against UTEP, 90 points
Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.
Oregon State’s EPA/play against UTEP’s defense
Oregon State offense, 95th percentile · UTEP defense, 7th
Oregon State’s passing EPA against UTEP’s defense
Oregon State offense, 94th percentile · UTEP defense, 4th
Oregon State’s explosive plays against UTEP’s defense
Oregon State offense, 87th percentile · UTEP defense, 45th
Season profile, all the rows
Season profile
Line, fans and home field
The betting line, and the fans
UTEP fans are in a better mood than Oregon State fans (79th vs 28th among FBS fanbases), even with Oregon State favored.
Oregon State favored by 11.5 · Total 56.5
How games like this usually go
Oregon State by 11.5, and it went to form
Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game
The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 385 games since 2025 with a favorite of 7.5 to 14.5 points.
The market
The spread moved 1 point toward UTEP.
The total rose 1 point.
Spread: +12.5 → +11.5 · Total: 55.5 → 56.5
The books’ cut: 4.2%, the margin built into the odds
Weather at kickoff
Warm and dry. Feels like 80° at kickoff.
Oregon State at UTEP · Saturday, Sept. 26, 2026 · Sun Bowl, El Paso
- 80°feels like at kickoff
- Dryno rain at kickoff
- 98weather score, Comfortable
- Bestof the day's 3 kickoff times
At kickoff, Sept. 26, 2026.
Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50.
Later kickoff times scored higher that Saturday
Games in this time zone used 3 kickoff times that day, local time (kickoffs within 30 minutes of each other count as one). This game, ringed, was the best of the day's three kickoff times. At Sun Bowl that day, a 1 pm kickoff would have scored 70, against 98 at 7 pm.
- 1 pm: 70, Rough
- 5:30 pm: 89, Mixed
- 7 pm: 98, Comfortable (this game)
Weather score at each kickoff time.
Tap a dot to read that kickoff time.
At kickoff, Sept. 26, 2026. Wind is not drawn here; gusts are in each score.
Home field
UTEP is worth +4.3 points (±3.4) more at home than on the road since 2018 — middle of FBS, 55th percentile.
26% at home, 16% on the road against FBS opponents (10-29 home, 8-42 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads -0.9 at home vs. away over 98 games — inside the ±5.0 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
Night kickoff — historically worth about half a point more to the home side against the number, and not much more than that. The visitors travel about 1,264 miles to get here.