Notre Dame 37-26 North Carolina (Oct 3, 2026) Final Score

Team pages: Notre Dame · North Carolina

No. 3 Notre Dame5-037

North Carolina2-226Final

Sat, Oct 3 · Kenan Stadium, Chapel Hill, N.C. · Crowd 50,500

No. 3 Notre Dame beat North Carolina 37-26.

We had Notre Dame favored. It won.

Next: Notre Dame beat Stanford 58-7, Sat Oct 10

Next: North Carolina beat Pittsburgh 21-17, Sat Oct 10

Top comment in the game thread

Thought for sure Carr overthrew that. Great catch by Faison.

Q2 14:53 · r/CFB game thread · Sat, Oct 3

How it swung

The turning point: Walton 12-yd run, turnover on downs (Q4, 0:07). Notre Dame went from 82% to 100% to win.

Before kickoff, our ratings gave Notre Dame a 94% chance, and the closing betting line (Notre Dame was a 21-point favorite) put it at 95%.

Favored the whole way: Notre Dame never fell below 73%.

North Carolina never had better than a 26% chance.

21 unanswered

Notre Dame · Q1 6:26Kickoff return TD

North Carolina · Q3 14:46

FinalNotre Dame 37-26 North CarolinaNotre Dame wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.

The two plays that swung it

1Q4 0:56Walton 2-yd runNotre Dame 95% → 82% (−13)
2Q4 0:074th and 13Walton 12-yd run, turnover on downsNotre Dame 82% → 100% (+18)

The two plays that swung it

1Q4 0:56Walton 2-yd runNorth Carolina 5% → 18% (+13)
2Q4 0:074th and 13Walton 12-yd run, turnover on downsNorth Carolina 18% → 0% (−18)

What fans said, play by play

The line in bold above each quote is written by our model from the thread’s comments and the play-by-play.

Q1 6:41Carr throws touchdown pass to Greathouse as Notre Dame fans praise his talentND not making the playoffs last year has caused Carr to kinda go under the radar.r/CFB game threadPeople will really look at those two TD throws, continue to say Carr has “average arm talent” and think they deserve jobs as scouts lol. God I’m gonna miss CJr/CFB game thread
Q1 3:48Talich intercepts Edwards pass as UNC fans demand benchingESPN ranked Billy Edwards 63 out of 68 P4 QBs. Wonder who the lower five arer/CFB game thread
Q2 14:53Carr throws deep touchdown to walk-on Faison as fans mock Belichick's coverageQuoted at the top of the page.
Q3 14:46Jefferson returns kickoff for touchdown as UNC takes leadHe was literally still able to kick it and the holder just snatched that bad boyr/CFB game thread
Q3 6:21What a terribly undisciplined defense. They weren't snapping that ball.r/CFB game threadfree play + td is crazy. can't believe they fell for that big ben trickr/CFB game thread

Notre Dame’s chance to win after every play.

How to read this chart

Starts from the pregame line (Notre Dame -21), at 89% for Notre Dame (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. Outlined diamonds mark rare plays. Under the scores, r/CFB comments per minute from fans with a North Carolina or Notre Dame flair (282 and 1,756); both sides share one scale, regulation only. A gold diamond marks a play fans were reacting to.

Watch the plays

The bar and the arrow show Notre Dame’s chance to win after each play; the logo is the team the play helped.

Every drive

Notre Dame scored on 6 of its 10 drives; North Carolina on 4 of its 10.

Notre Dame’s drives are teal, North Carolina’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.

From North Carolina’s side

North Carolina’s best moment: Walton 2-yd run (Q4 0:56). It lifted North Carolina’s win chance by 13 points.

How North Carolina fans took it: “Pitt, Boise State, and USC are the toughest teams” r/CFB game thread

“Yeah wasn’t great but hard to be mad at 15+ games winning by double digits”

A Notre Dame fan

How fans reacted

Steady

Fans were up and loud before the first quarter was out.

Jump to the loudest stretch

The jump was steady; the crowd was busy.

Two crowds, one game

The words each side’s fans used far more than the other side, from the game thread.

Notre Dame fans

walton“Game is turning all from that stupid QB run. Should have given it to Walton.”

North Carolina fans

edwards“ESPN ranked Billy Edwards 63 out of 68 P4 QBs. Wonder who the lower five are”

basketball“Its funny to see UNC fans make fun of ND fans when like 70% of ND football fans are the same type of people who make up 70% of our basketball fanbase”

bum“So many open receivers this bum isn’t seeing”

Both sets of fans kept coming back to: ball, back, looks, half.

What it cost

Notre Dame’s chance to make the playoff rose from 79% to 82%.

Make the playoff

Notre Dame · won79% → ▲82%

North Carolina · lost0% → 0%

Win the title

Notre Dame · won16% → ▲17%

North Carolina · lost0% → 0%

Before the game (October 2, 2026) → after this result, in our model.

Box score

Notre Dame 37, North Carolina 26

North Carolina covered +21 by 10. The total, 63, went over 46.5.

Team totals	Notre Dame	North Carolina
Total yards	475	285
Passing	21 of 29, 234 yds	17 of 28, 208 yds
Rushing	45 for 241 yds	23 for 77 yds
First downs	26	18
Third down	4 of 11	5 of 10
Fourth down	3 of 5	1 of 1
Turnovers	0	2
Penalties	4 for 32 yds	3 for 20 yds
Time of possession	37:04	22:56

Notre Dame leaders

Passing C.J. Carr 21 of 29, 234 yds, 4 TD
Rushing Jonaz Walton 23 for 120 yds; Nolan James Jr. 9 for 65 yds
Receiving Jordan Faison 8 for 132 yds, 2 TD; Micah Gilbert 3 for 34 yds

North Carolina leaders

Passing Billy Edwards 17 of 28, 208 yds, 3 TD, 2 INT
Rushing Benjamin Hall 10 for 36 yds; Jaylen McGill 4 for 15 yds
Receiving Jordan Shipp 7 for 109 yds; Jelani Thurman 5 for 50 yds, 2 TD

Rain for part of the game

70° at kickoff · 0.3 in of rain by radar over the stadium; the airport 9.3 miles away recorded no rain

The usual here around this date is 72°, with about 7 in 10 games between 64° and 79°.

In the game thread, fans talked about the rain.

October game-day temperatures at Kenan Stadium

Drag along the chart, or step through the game.

Fourth quarter, 0:07 left3:16 p.m.

Notre Dame 37, North Carolina 26 · North Carolina 0% to win

no rain · 66°

Walton 12-yd run, turnover on downs

Measured at Durham - Duke North Heliport airport, 9.3 miles away. Rain is NOAA's radar-and-gauge estimate at the stadium and wind is an airport reading; neither is measured on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet; rain radar from NOAA MRMS, through Iowa State University. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.

Before kickoff

Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.

Recent games

Last 4 games

Notre Dame · 4-0

Rated 1st in our preseason ratings, 3rd now.

4 straight wins — but still hunting a ranked opponent.

W 49-10 @ Purdue #113 of 668

won by 39 as a 27.5-point favorite

W 27-10 vs Michigan State #132 of 668

won by 17 as a 28.5-point favorite

W 52-0 vs Rice #147 of 668

won by 52 as a 44.5-point favorite

W 41-13 vs Wisconsin #77 of 668

won by 28 as a 21-point favorite

Last three games

North Carolina · 2-1

Rated 136th in our preseason ratings, 104th now, up 32 spots.

2-1 in its last three, including a 5-point win over TCU as a 7.5-point underdog.

L 20-28 @ ClemsonTop 25 #23 of 668

lost by 8 as a 3-point underdog

W 35-3 vs East Tennessee State #160 of 668

won by 32 as a 36.5-point favorite

W 15-10 @ TCU #53 of 668

won by 5 as a 7.5-point underdog

Week by week

North Carolina

Wk 1Wat TCU15-10
Wk 2Wvs East Tennessee State35-3
Wk 3Lat Clemson20-28

Notre Dame

Wk 1Wvs Wisconsin41-13
Wk 2Wvs Rice52-0
Wk 3Wvs Michigan State27-10
Wk 4Wat Purdue49-10

Power rating by week

Notre Dame is rated 15.9 points ahead as of week 4. Our power rating by week; higher is better.

Matchups

Biggest mismatch: Notre Dame’s explosive plays against North Carolina, 72 points

Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.

Notre Dame’s explosive plays against North Carolina’s defense
Notre Dame offense, 25th percentile · North Carolina defense, 97th
Notre Dame’s success rate against North Carolina’s defense
Notre Dame offense, 93rd percentile · North Carolina defense, 29th
North Carolina’s rushing EPA against Notre Dame’s defense
North Carolina offense, 34th percentile · Notre Dame defense, 95th

Season profile, all the rows

Season profile

Notre DameNorth Carolina

EPA/play, offense

EPA/play, defense

Success rate, offense

Success rate, defense

Explosive-play rate, offense

Explosive-play rate, defense

Rush EPA, offense

Rush EPA, defense

Pass EPA, offense

Pass EPA, defense

The series

Notre Dame leads the series 21-2

23 meetings since 1949 · Notre Dame has won the last 5

2022Notre Dame 45-32
2021Notre Dame 44-34
2020Notre Dame 31-17
2017Notre Dame 33-10
2014Notre Dame 50-43

Each line is North Carolina’s chance to win through that meeting. Older meetings have no play by play, so no line.

Line, fans and home field

The betting line, and the fans

North Carolina fans are in a better mood than Notre Dame fans (83rd vs 62nd among FBS fanbases), even with Notre Dame favored.

Notre Dame favored by 21 · Total 46.5

How games like this usually go

Notre Dame by 21, and it went to form

Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game

The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 251 games since 2025 with a favorite of 14.5 to 21.5 points.

The market

The spread moved 2.5 points toward North Carolina.

The total fell 9 points.

The books’ cut: 3.8%, the margin built into the odds

Weather at kickoff

Warm, with rain. Feels like 74° at kickoff.

Notre Dame at North Carolina · Saturday, Oct. 3, 2026 · Kenan Stadium, Chapel Hill

74°feels like at kickoff
0.20 inrain at kickoff
84weather score, Mixed

At kickoff, Oct. 3, 2026.

Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50.

Kickoff times that Saturday

Games in this time zone used 9 kickoff times that day, local time (kickoffs within 30 minutes of each other count as one). This game is ringed. At Kenan Stadium that day, a 6 pm, 7:30 pm or 8 pm kickoff would have scored 100, against 84 at noon.

11 am: 94, Comfortable
noon: 84, Mixed (this game)
12:45 pm: 80, Mixed
2 pm: 82, Mixed
3:30 pm: 94, Comfortable
4:15 pm: 99, Comfortable
6 pm: 100, Ideal
7:30 pm: 100, Ideal
8 pm: 100, Ideal

Weather score at each kickoff time.

Tap a dot to read that kickoff time.

At kickoff, Oct. 3, 2026. Wind is not drawn here; gusts are in each score.

Home field

North Carolina is worth +1.6 points (±3.3) more at home than on the road since 2018 — bottom third of FBS, 11th percentile.

51% at home, 43% on the road against FBS opponents (22-21 home, 19-25 away).

Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads -1.2 at home vs. away over 95 games — inside the ±5.6 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.

The visitors travel about 556 miles to get here.

No. 3 Notre Dame beats North Carolina 37-26