Florida State 38-7 Virginia (Oct 3, 2026) Final Score

Team pages: Virginia · Florida State

Virginia3-27

Florida State3-238Final

Sat, Oct 3 · Doak Campbell Stadium, Tallahassee, Fla. · Crowd 55,782

Florida State routed Virginia 38-7.

We had Virginia favored. Florida State won.

Next: Virginia beat Syracuse 28-25, Sat Oct 10

Next: Florida State lost to Louisville 44-20, Fri Oct 9

Top comment in the game thread

That is what we mean by Tony Elliot is a football terrorist

Q2 1:28 · r/CFB game thread · Sat, Oct 3

How it swung

Before kickoff, our ratings gave Florida State a 31% chance, and the closing betting line (Florida State was a 1.5-point underdog) put it at 45%.

38 unanswered

Florida State · Q2 5:5881-yard TD run

Florida State · Q3 3:16

FinalFlorida State 38-7 VirginiaFlorida State wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.

The two plays that swung it

1Q2 11:48Daniels 4-yd TD run, ties it 7-7Florida State 34% → 46% (+12)
2Q2 9:36Special teams58-yd punt, Lopez returns it 31Florida State 55% → 66% (+11)

The two plays that swung it

1Q2 11:48Daniels 4-yd TD run, ties it 7-7Virginia 66% → 54% (−12)
2Q2 9:36Special teams58-yd punt, Lopez returns it 31Virginia 45% → 34% (−11)

What fans said, play by play

The line in bold above each quote is written by our model from the thread’s comments and the play-by-play.

Q2 1:28Virginia fans rip Tony Elliott for declining holding penalty before FSU field goalQuoted at the top of the page.Tony is an idiotr/CFB game thread
Q2 0:53Virginia fans lament Pribula's sack and poor play as FSU takes overeven as a pessimist I genuinely didn’t realize that pribula reliably will miss wide open receivers lolr/CFB game thread
Q3 8:26A running back turned sharply and ran in the opposite direction for positive yards.Ashton Daniels instead of getting a block in the back instead gets a block using his backr/CFB game thread
Q3 3:16Daniels runs 81 yards for a touchdown as FSU fans celebrateAshton "Michael Vick" Danielsr/CFB game thread
Q4 10:11Florida State sacks Pribula for its tenth sack of the gamePribula hit the family guy death pose on that sack for a minuter/CFB game thread

Florida State’s chance to win after every play.

How to read this chart

Starts from the pregame line (Virginia -1.5), at 53% for Florida State (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. Outlined diamonds mark rare plays. Under the scores, r/CFB comments per minute from fans with a Florida State or Virginia flair (853 and 359); both sides share one scale, regulation only. A gold diamond marks a play fans were reacting to.

Watch the plays

The bar and the arrow show Florida State’s chance to win after each play; the logo is the team the play helped.

Every drive

Florida State scored on 6 of its 13 drives; Virginia on 1 of its 13.

Florida State’s drives are teal, Virginia’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.

From Virginia’s side

Virginia’s best moment: Pribula 13-yd TD pass to Martin, Virginia goes ahead 7-0 (Q1 6:04). It lifted Virginia’s win chance by 11 points.

How Virginia fans took it: “Oh sure run another 4th down play out of the shotgun what could go wrong” r/CFB game thread

“Might be the best offensive series the Noles have played all season, not even joking”

A Florida State fan

How fans reacted

Quiet

Fans peaked in the second quarter.

Jump to the loudest stretch

The jump was quiet; the crowd was steady.

Two crowds, one game

The words each side’s fans used far more than the other side, from the game thread.

Virginia fans

holstein“Beau looks like half as mobile as he did against NCST, if this dude is hurt put Holstein in the game so we can try to throw the ball”

Both sets of fans kept coming back to: back, run, now, line.

What it cost

Virginia’s chance to make the playoff fell from 5% to 2%.

Make the playoff

Virginia · lost5% → ▼2%

Florida State · won0% → 0%

Win the conference

Virginia · lost4% → ▼2%

Florida State · won0% → 0%

Before the game (October 2, 2026) → after this result, in our model.

Box score

Florida State 38, Virginia 7

Florida State covered +1.5 by 32.5. The total, 45, stayed under 51.5.

Team totals	Virginia	Florida State
Total yards	205	464
Passing	14 of 32, 168 yds	12 of 19, 183 yds
Rushing	40 for 37 yds	46 for 281 yds
First downs	19	22
Third down	3 of 15	6 of 12
Fourth down	0 of 4	0 of 0
Turnovers	0	1
Penalties	6 for 50 yds	7 for 85 yds
Time of possession	28:09	31:51

Virginia leaders

Passing Beau Pribula 14 of 32, 168 yds, 1 TD
Rushing Jekail Middlebrook 10 for 65 yds; Xavier Brown 7 for 19 yds
Receiving Isaiah Robinson 2 for 41 yds; Dashawn Martin 4 for 35 yds, 1 TD

Florida State leaders

Passing Ashton Daniels 12 of 19, 183 yds, 1 INT
Rushing Ashton Daniels 17 for 136 yds, 5 TD; Ousmane Kromah 17 for 80 yds
Receiving Micahi Danzy 4 for 70 yds; Tre Wisner 2 for 60 yds

No rain through the game

83° at kickoff · no rain recorded

October game-day temperatures at Doak Campbell Stadium

Drag along the chart, or step through the game.

First quarter, 14:50 left3:37 p.m.

Virginia 0, Florida State 0 · Florida State 53% to win

no rain · 82°

Kromah 5-yd run

Where this weather comes from

Measured at Tallahassee Rgnl airport, 4.2 miles away. Rain is NOAA's radar-and-gauge estimate at the stadium and wind is an airport reading; neither is measured on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet; rain radar from NOAA MRMS, through Iowa State University. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.

Before kickoff

Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.

Recent games

Last 4 games

Virginia · 3-1

Rated 56th in our preseason ratings, 38th now, up 18 spots.

3-1 in its last 4 — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.

W 42-3 vs Delaware #61 of 668

won by 39 as a 19.5-point favorite

L 27-38 vs West Virginia #137 of 668

lost by 11 as a 10.5-point favorite

W 59-3 vs Norfolk State #225 of 668

won by 56 as a 47.5-point favorite

W 34-8 vs NC State #46 of 668

won by 26 as a 4-point favorite

Last 4 games

Florida State · 2-2

Rated 82nd in our preseason ratings, 86th now.

2-2 in its last 4 — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.

W 34-7 vs Central Arkansas #207 of 668

won by 27 as a 45.5-point favorite

L 36-50 @ AlabamaTop 25 #16 of 668

lost by 14 as an 18.5-point underdog

L 24-27 vs SMUTop 25 #15 of 668

lost by 3 as a 3-point underdog

W 34-17 vs New Mexico State #148 of 668

won by 17 as a 30.5-point favorite

Week by week

Florida State

Wk 1Wvs New Mexico State34-17
Wk 1Lvs SMU24-27
Wk 3Lat Alabama36-50
Wk 4Wvs Central Arkansas34-7

Virginia

Wk 1Wvs NC State34-8
Wk 2Wvs Norfolk State59-3
Wk 3Lvs West Virginia27-38
Wk 4Wvs Delaware42-3

Power rating by week

Virginia is rated 4.9 points ahead as of week 4. Our power rating by week; higher is better.

Matchups

Biggest mismatch: Virginia’s EPA/play against Florida State, 41 points

Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.

Virginia’s EPA/play against Florida State’s defense
Virginia offense, 56th percentile · Florida State defense, 15th
Virginia’s passing EPA against Florida State’s defense
Virginia offense, 63rd percentile · Florida State defense, 24th

Season profile, all the rows

Season profile

VirginiaFlorida State

EPA/play, offense

EPA/play, defense

Success rate, offense

Success rate, defense

Explosive-play rate, offense

Explosive-play rate, defense

Rush EPA, offense

Rush EPA, defense

Pass EPA, offense

Pass EPA, defense

The series

Florida State leads the series 15-5

20 meetings since 1992 · Virginia has won the last 2

2025Virginia 46-38
2019Virginia 31-24
2014Florida State 34-20
2011Virginia 14-13
2010Florida State 34-14

Each line is Florida State’s chance to win through that meeting. Florida State is 0-2 in the meetings since 2018 that were still close in the fourth quarter. Older meetings have no play by play, so no line.

Line, fans and home field

The betting line, and the fans

Florida State fans are in a better mood than Virginia fans (33rd vs 8th among FBS fanbases), even with Virginia favored.

Virginia favored by 1.5 · Total 51.5

How games like this usually go

Virginia by 1.5, on the usual path until Q2 9:36

Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game

The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 252 games since 2025 with a favorite of under 3.5 points.

The market

The books’ cut: 4.8%, the margin built into the odds

Weather at kickoff

Hot and dry. Feels like 90° at kickoff.

Virginia at Florida State · Saturday, Oct. 3, 2026 · Doak Campbell Stadium, Tallahassee

90°feels like at kickoff
Dryno rain at kickoff
62weather score, Rough
4throughest of the day's 9 kickoff times

At kickoff, Oct. 3, 2026.

Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50.

Later kickoff times scored higher that Saturday

Games in this time zone used 9 kickoff times that day, local time (kickoffs within 30 minutes of each other count as one). This game, ringed, was the fourth roughest of the day's nine kickoff times. At Doak Campbell Stadium that day, a 7:30 pm or 8 pm kickoff would have scored 96, against 62 at 3:30 pm.

The roughest kickoff time is the lowest of the day's times. It can still be Mixed or Comfortable.

11 am: 53, Rough
noon: 49, Harsh
12:45 pm: 49, Harsh
2 pm: 74, Rough
3:30 pm: 62, Rough (this game)
4:15 pm: 68, Rough
6 pm: 85, Mixed
7:30 pm: 96, Comfortable
8 pm: 96, Comfortable

Weather score at each kickoff time.

Tap a dot to read that kickoff time.

At kickoff, Oct. 3, 2026. Wind is not drawn here; gusts are in each score.

Home field

Florida State is worth +7.2 points (±4.2) more at home than on the road since 2018 — top tenth of FBS, 93rd percentile.

58% at home, 30% on the road against FBS opponents (29-21 home, 12-28 away).

Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +2.5 at home vs. away over 96 games — inside the ±6.3 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.

The visitors travel about 620 miles to get here.

Last meeting in our History pages

Virginia 46, Florida State 38Sep 26, 2025

Where next

Conference standings

Place in the conference, then conference record.

Florida State13th0-1
Virginia7th1-0

Full ACC standings

Florida State routs Virginia 38-7