Purdue upsets Illinois 24-17

Purdue2-324
Illinois2-317Final
Sat, Oct 3 · Memorial Stadium (Champaign, IL), Champaign, Ill. · Crowd 60,670BTN

Purdue beat Illinois 24-17 as a 9.5-point underdog.

We had Illinois favored. Purdue won.

Top comment in the game thread

Broke: the reason we didn’t have live ref discussion was because it was all a CONSPIRACY Woke: we didn’t have life ref discussion because the technology sucked

Q4 4:29 · r/CFB game thread · Sat, Oct 3

How it swung

Before kickoff, our ratings gave Purdue a 24% chance, and the closing betting line (Purdue was a 9.5-point underdog) put it at 22%.

FinalPurdue 24-17 IllinoisPurdue wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.
50%25%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q444% at halfPurdueIllinoisLowest 20%Won24-1712+10−13ScoresPurdueIllinoisPurdue fans: 0 comments a minutePurdue fans: 2 comments a minutePurdue fans: 0 comments a minutePurdue fans: 2 comments a minutePurdue fans: 1 comments a minutePurdue fans: 0 comments a minutePurdue fans: 1 comments a minutePurdue fans: 0 comments a minutePurdue fans: 2 comments a minutePurdue fans: 3 comments a minutePurdue fans: 2 comments a minutePurdue fans: 2 comments a minutePurdue fans: 1 comments a minutePurdue fans: 2 comments a minutePurdue fans: 4 comments a minutePurdue fans: 4 comments a minutePurdue fans: 4 comments a minutePurdue fans: 6 comments a minutePurdue fans: 6 comments a minutePurdue fans: 4 comments a minutePurdue fans: 6 comments a minutePurdue fans: 3 comments a minutePurdue fans: 1 comments a minutePurdue fans: 3 comments a minutePurdue fans: 2 comments a minutePurdue fans: 3 comments a minutePurdue fans: 2 comments a minutePurdue fans: 6 comments a minutePurdue fans: 4 comments a minutePurdue fans: 4 comments a minutePurdue fans: 1 comments a minutePurdue fans: 2 comments a minutePurdue fans: 1 comments a minutePurdue fans: 1 comments a minutePurdue fans: 4 comments a minutePurdue fans: 1 comments a minutePurdue fans: 4 comments a minutePurdue fans: 2 comments a minutePurdue fans: 2 comments a minutePurdue fans: 2 comments a minutePurdue fans: 1 comments a minutePurdue fans: 0 comments a minutePurdue fans: 3 comments a minutePurdue fans: 3 comments a minutePurdue fans: 4 comments a minutePurdue fans: 3 comments a minutePurdue fans: 4 comments a minutePurdue fans: 4 comments a minutePurdue fans: 6 comments a minutePurdue fans: 2 comments a minutePurdue fans: 4 comments a minutePurdue fans: 4 comments a minutePurdue fans: 3 comments a minutePurdue fans: 6 comments a minutePurdue fans: 4 comments a minutePurdue fans: 7 comments a minutePurdue fans: 7 comments a minutePurdue fans: 2 comments a minutePurdue fans: 5 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 1 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 0 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 0 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 0 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 0 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 1 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 0 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 1 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 0 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 0 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 0 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 2 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 0 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 2 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 0 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 3 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 7 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 2 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 7 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 2 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 1 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 4 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 1 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 4 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 5 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 4 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 2 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 5 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 2 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 1 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 0 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 0 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 1 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 0 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 0 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 0 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 1 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 2 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 2 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 1 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 2 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 1 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 1 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 3 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 3 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 1 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 3 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 2 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 2 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 0 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 2 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 4 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 2 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 2 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 1 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 3 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 3 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 3 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 2 comments a minute
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The two plays that swung it

  1. 1Q2 14:57Moczulski 32-yd field goal no goodPurdue 27% → 37% (+10)
  2. 2Q2 0:21Houser 7-yd TD pass to Dixon, cuts it to 13-7Purdue 62% → 49% (−13)

The two plays that swung it

  1. 1Q2 14:57Moczulski 32-yd field goal no goodIllinois 73% → 63% (−10)
  2. 2Q2 0:21Houser 7-yd TD pass to Dixon, cuts it to 13-7Illinois 38% → 51% (+13)

What fans said, play by play

The line in bold above each quote is written by our model from the thread’s comments and the play-by-play.

  1. Q2 3:30Officials flag Purdue for pass interference on Houser's throw to DixonJust keep running the most successful offensive play this season (debatable pass interference against Dixon)r/CFB game thread
  2. Q3 0:13Illinois fans rip coach for going for it on fourth down instead of kicking a field goalWHY ARE WE NOT TAKING THE POINTSr/CFB game thread
  3. Q4 7:22Purdue converts a first down as Illinois fans decry the defense's horrendous tacklingThis teams tackling is horrendous.r/CFB game thread
  4. Q4 4:29Purdue fans mock Illinois offense and referees after Harris touchdownThis segment does not inspire any more confidence in the referees in this sportr/CFB game threadQuoted at the top of the page.
  5. Q4 3:28Purdue's Slaughter intercepts Houser, sparking celebration of a likely conference winIf houser plays like this the rest of the season we aren’t winning another gamer/CFB game thread
Purdue’s chance to win after every play.
How to read this chartStarts from the pregame line (Illinois -9.5), at 21% for Purdue (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. Under the scores, r/CFB comments per minute from fans with a Illinois or Purdue flair (308 and 548); both sides share one scale, regulation only. A gold diamond marks a play fans were reacting to.

Every drive

Purdue scored on 5 of its 10 drives; Illinois on 3 of its 9.

Purdue’s drives are teal, Illinois’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.

own goalgoal lineQ1Purdue: Field goal, from 75 yards out to 11Field goalIllinois: Missed field goal, from 75 yards out to 14Missed FGQ2Purdue: Field goal, from 80 yards out to 16Field goalIllinois: Punt, from 75 yards out to 68PuntPurdue: Touchdown, from 78 yards out to 0TouchdownIllinois: Touchdown, from 75 yards out to 0TouchdownPurdue: End of half, from 35 yards out to 26End of halfQ3Illinois: Punt, from 75 yards out to 42PuntPurdue: Field goal, from 89 yards out to 15Field goalIllinois: Turned over on downs, from 75 yards out to 17DownsPurdue: Punt, from 83 yards out to 81PuntQ4Illinois: Punt, from 61 yards out to 44PuntPurdue: Punt, from 91 yards out to 85PuntIllinois: Field goal, from 60 yards out to 36Field goalPurdue: Touchdown, from 61 yards out to 0TouchdownIllinois: Interception, from 79 yards out to 47InterceptionPurdue: Punt, from 92 yards out to 88PuntIllinois: Touchdown, from 66 yards out to 0TouchdownPurdue: End of game, from 52 yards out to 58End of game

From Illinois’s side

Illinois’s best moment: Houser 7-yd TD pass to Dixon, cuts it to 13-7 (Q2 0:21). It lifted Illinois’s win chance by 13 points.

How Illinois fans took it: “We are and it's a familiar feeling, like an old friend” r/CFB game thread

“illinois could be a national championship team and for some reason they’d come out against purdue looking like a MAC team”
A Purdue fan

When fans got loud

Busy

Fans saved the biggest reaction for the closing minutes.

Jump to the loudest stretch

The jump was busy; the crowd was steady.

FirstSecondThirdFourthPurdue fansIllinois fansusual

Two crowds, one game

The words each side’s fans used far more than the other side, from the game thread.

Illinois fans

houser“If houser plays like this the rest of the season we aren’t winning another game”

Both sets of fans kept coming back to: now, every, god, run.

Box score

Purdue 24, Illinois 17

Purdue covered +9.5 by 16.5. The total, 41, stayed under 62.5.

PurdueIllinoisTotal yardsPurdue 345Illinois 345345345Passing yardsPurdue 255Illinois 225255225Rushing yardsPurdue 90Illinois 12090120First downsPurdue 19Illinois 261926TurnoversPurdue 0Illinois 101Time of possessionPurdue 31:33Illinois 28:2731:3328:27
Team totalsPurdueIllinois
Total yards345345
Passing18 of 27, 255 yds21 of 37, 225 yds
Rushing33 for 90 yds27 for 120 yds
First downs1926
Third down5 of 117 of 13
Fourth down0 of 00 of 1
Turnovers01
Penalties7 for 63 yds4 for 46 yds
Time of possession31:3328:27

Purdue leaders

  • Passing Ryan Browne 18 of 27, 255 yds, 1 TD
  • Rushing Fame Ijeboi 19 for 65 yds; Antonio Harris 6 for 20 yds, 1 TD
  • Receiving Asaad Waseem 3 for 98 yds; Chauncey Magwood 4 for 53 yds

Illinois leaders

  • Passing Katin Houser 21 of 37, 225 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT
  • Rushing Aidan Laughery 12 for 49 yds; Katin Houser 8 for 42 yds
  • Receiving Collin Dixon 10 for 116 yds, 1 TD; Hudson Clement 4 for 72 yds

No rain through the game

72° at kickoff · no rain recorded

October game-day temperatures at Memorial Stadium (Champaign, IL)

Win chance with rain, wind and thunder from the nearest airport, by game timeQ1Q2Q3Q4Illinois favoredPurdue favored0%Win chanceIllinoisRaininches per 10 min0.1 inNo rain recordedWindmph, average and gusts20 mph40 mphHourly wind only at this airport
Win chance with rain, wind and thunder from the nearest airport, by game timeQ1Q2Q3Q4Illinois favoredPurdue favoredRain · inches per 10 min0.1 inNo rain recordedWind · miles per hour2040Hourly wind only at this airport

Drag along the chart, or step through the game.

First quarter, 14:53 left3:17 p.m.
Purdue 0, Illinois 0 · Illinois 79% to win
no rain · 72°
Ijeboi 8-yd run
Where this weather comes fromMeasured at Champaign - Willard airport, 5.1 miles away. Rain is NOAA's radar-and-gauge estimate at the stadium and wind is an airport reading; neither is measured on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet; rain radar from NOAA MRMS, through Iowa State University. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.

Before kickoff

Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.

Recent games

Last 4 games

Purdue · 1-3

Rated 119th in our preseason ratings, 113th now.

1-3 in its last 4 — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.

Last 4 games

Illinois · 2-2

Rated 70th in our preseason ratings, 59th now, up 11 spots.

2-2 in its last 4 — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.

Week by week

Illinois

Wk 1: W 42-23 vs UAB▲19UABWk 2: L 27-31 vs Duke▼4DukeWk 3: W 48-10 vs Southern Illinois▲38S. IllinoisWk 4: L 19-42 at Ohio State▼23Ohio State
  • Wk 1Wvs UAB42-23
  • Wk 2Lvs Duke27-31
  • Wk 3Wvs Southern Illinois48-10
  • Wk 4Lat Ohio State19-42

Purdue

Wk 1: W 44-19 vs Indiana State▲25Indiana St.Wk 2: L 36-38 vs Wake Forest▼2Wake ForestWk 3: L 38-52 at UCLA▼14UCLAWk 4: L 10-49 vs Notre Dame▼39Notre Dame
  • Wk 1Wvs Indiana State44-19
  • Wk 2Lvs Wake Forest36-38
  • Wk 3Lat UCLA38-52
  • Wk 4Lvs Notre Dame10-49

Power rating by week

Illinois is rated 4.7 points ahead as of week 4. Our power rating by week; higher is better.

3-2-6Wk 0Wk 2Wk 4IllinoisPurdue

Matchups

Biggest mismatch: Illinois’s passing EPA against Purdue, 76 points

Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.

  1. Illinois’s EPA/play against Purdue’s defense

    75 pointsweakerstronger50th

    Illinois offense, 84th percentile · Purdue defense, 9th

  2. Illinois’s passing EPA against Purdue’s defense

    76 pointsweakerstronger50th

    Illinois offense, 78th percentile · Purdue defense, 2nd

  3. Illinois’s explosive plays against Purdue’s defense

    59 pointsweakerstronger50th

    Illinois offense, 60th percentile · Purdue defense, 1st

Season profile, all the rows

Season profile

PurdueIllinois
EPA/play, offense
Purdue · 66Illinois · 84
EPA/play, defense
Purdue · 9Illinois · 5
Success rate, offense
Purdue · 61Illinois · 92
Success rate, defense
Purdue · 14Illinois · 11
Explosive-play rate, offense
Purdue · 61Illinois · 60
Explosive-play rate, defense
Purdue · 1Illinois · 35
Rush EPA, offense
Purdue · 37Illinois · 86
Rush EPA, defense
Purdue · 41Illinois · 24
Pass EPA, offense
Purdue · 76Illinois · 78
Pass EPA, defense
Purdue · 2Illinois · 5

The series

The series is tied 47-47-6

100 meetings since 1892 · Illinois has won the last 2

Illinois wonPurdue won1892: Purdue by 61893: tie1894: Purdue by 201895: Purdue by 41896: tie1897: Illinois by 301899: Purdue by 51900: Illinois by 121901: Illinois by 221902: Illinois by 241903: Illinois by 241904: Illinois by 181905: Purdue by 291906: Illinois by 51907: Illinois by 171908: Illinois by 91909: Illinois by 181910: Illinois by 111911: Illinois by 91912: tie1913: tie1916: Illinois by 71917: Illinois by 271919: Illinois by 71930: Purdue by 251931: Purdue by 71943: Purdue by 191944: Purdue by 161946: Illinois by 361947: Purdue by 71948: Illinois by 41949: Illinois by 191952: Purdue by 281953: Illinois by 211954: Purdue by 141955: Purdue by 131956: tie1957: Purdue by 151958: Purdue by 231959: tie1960: Illinois by 21961: Purdue by 141962: Illinois by 41963: Illinois by 201964: Purdue by 121965: Illinois by 211966: Purdue by 41967: Purdue by 331968: Purdue by 181969: Purdue by 271970: Illinois by 21971: Illinois by 141972: Purdue by 61973: Illinois by 21974: Illinois by 41975: Purdue by 21976: Illinois by 41977: Illinois by 71978: Purdue by 131979: Purdue by 141980: Purdue by 251981: Purdue by 241982: Illinois by 41983: Illinois by 141984: Illinois by 141985: Purdue by 61986: Illinois by 71987: Purdue by 61988: Illinois by 201989: Illinois by 121990: Illinois by 341991: Illinois by 271992: Illinois by 31993: Illinois by 181994: Purdue by 61997: Purdue by 451998: Purdue by 332001: Illinois by 252002: Illinois by 72003: Purdue by 332004: Purdue by 82005: Purdue by 342006: Purdue by 112009: Purdue by 102010: Illinois by 342011: Purdue by 72012: Purdue by 32013: Illinois by 42014: Purdue by 112015: Illinois by 342016: Purdue by 32017: Purdue by 192018: Purdue by 392019: Illinois by 182020: Purdue by 72021: Purdue by 42022: Purdue by 72023: Purdue by 252024: Illinois by 12025: Illinois by 1618922025
  • 2025Illinois 43-27Illinois won 43-27 at Purdue. Chance to win started at 62%, low 35%, high better than 99%.
  • 2024Illinois 50-49Illinois won 50-49 vs Purdue. Chance to win started at 91%, low 42%, high better than 99%.
  • 2023Purdue 44-19Illinois lost 19-44 at Purdue. Chance to win started at 61%, low under 1%, high 67%.
  • 2022Purdue 31-24Illinois lost 24-31 vs Purdue. Chance to win started at 51%, low 5%, high 77%.
  • 2021Purdue 13-9Illinois lost 9-13 at Purdue. Chance to win started at 22%, low under 1%, high 71%.

Each line is Illinois’s chance to win through that meeting. Illinois is 1-3 in the meetings since 2018 that were still close in the fourth quarter.

Line, fans and home field

The betting line, and the fans

Purdue fans are in a better mood than Illinois fans (39th vs 29th among FBS fanbases), even with Illinois favored.

50-50Model 76% · Line 78%Illinois fans · 29thPurdue fans · 39thPurdueIllinois

Illinois favored by 9.5 · Total 62.5

How games like this usually go

Illinois by 9.5, on the usual path until Q2 14:57

50%90%Q1Q2Q3Q450%90%Q1Q2Q3Q4

Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game

The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 385 games since 2025 with a favorite of 7.5 to 14.5 points.

The market

The spread moved 0.5 points toward Purdue.

opened −10now −9.5

The total rose 2 points.

opened 60.5now 62.5

Spread: −10 → −9.5 · Total: 60.5 → 62.5

The books’ cut: 4.3%, the margin built into the odds

Weather at kickoff

Mild and dry. Feels like 69° at kickoff.

Purdue at Illinois · Saturday, Oct. 3, 2026 · Memorial Stadium, Champaign

  • 69°feels like at kickoff
  • Dryno rain at kickoff
  • 100weather score, Ideal

Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50.

Kickoff times that Saturday

Games in this time zone used 5 kickoff times that day, local time (kickoffs within 30 minutes of each other count as one). This game is ringed. At Memorial Stadium that day, a 2:30 pm or 6:45 pm kickoff would have scored 98, against 100 at 3:15 pm.

  • 11 am: 100, Ideal
  • 2:30 pm: 98, Comfortable
  • 3:15 pm: 100, Ideal (this game)
  • 6 pm: 99, Comfortable
  • 6:45 pm: 98, Comfortable

Weather score at each kickoff time.

Tap a dot to read that kickoff time.

Home field

Illinois is worth +3.1 points (±4.1) more at home than on the road since 2018 — bottom third of FBS, 31st percentile.

52% at home, 44% on the road against FBS opponents (26-24 home, 18-23 away).

Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads -3.0 at home vs. away over 95 games — inside the ±6.6 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.

The visitors travel about 73 miles to get here.

The story going in

Last meeting in our History pages

Where next

Conference standings

Place in the conference, then conference record.

Full Big Ten standings