PUR Purdue 2-3 24 ILL Illinois 2-3 17 Final Sat, Oct 3 · Memorial Stadium (Champaign, IL), Champaign, Ill. · Crowd 60,670 BTN
Purdue beat Illinois 24-17 as a 9.5-point underdog. Share this game
We had Illinois favored. Purdue won.
Top comment in the game thread
Broke: the reason we didn’t have live ref discussion was because it was all a CONSPIRACY Woke: we didn’t have life ref discussion because the technology sucked
Q4 4:29 · r/CFB game thread · Sat, Oct 3 How it swung Watch the plays Drives Box score Weather Before kickoff How it swung Before kickoff, our ratings gave Purdue a 24% chance, and the closing betting line (Purdue was a 9.5-point underdog) put it at 22%.
Final Purdue 24-17 Illinois Purdue won Move across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play. Final Illinois 17-24 Purdue Illinois lost Move across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play. 50% 25% 75% 90% Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 44% at half Purdue Illinois Lowest 20% Won 24-17 1 2 +10 −13 Scores Purdue Illinois Purdue fans: 0 comments a minute Purdue fans: 2 comments a minute Purdue fans: 0 comments a minute Purdue fans: 2 comments a minute Purdue fans: 1 comments a minute Purdue fans: 0 comments a minute Purdue fans: 1 comments a minute Purdue fans: 0 comments a minute Purdue fans: 2 comments a minute Purdue fans: 3 comments a minute Purdue fans: 2 comments a minute Purdue fans: 2 comments a minute Purdue fans: 1 comments a minute Purdue fans: 2 comments a minute Purdue fans: 4 comments a minute Purdue fans: 4 comments a minute Purdue fans: 4 comments a minute Purdue fans: 6 comments a minute Purdue fans: 6 comments a minute Purdue fans: 4 comments a minute Purdue fans: 6 comments a minute Purdue fans: 3 comments a minute Purdue fans: 1 comments a minute Purdue fans: 3 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See it from Illinois’s side The two plays that swung it
1 Q2 14:57 Moczulski 32-yd field goal no good Purdue 27% → 37% (+10) 2 Q2 0:21 Houser 7-yd TD pass to Dixon, cuts it to 13-7 Purdue 62% → 49% (−13) The two plays that swung it
1 Q2 14:57 Moczulski 32-yd field goal no good Illinois 73% → 63% (−10) 2 Q2 0:21 Houser 7-yd TD pass to Dixon, cuts it to 13-7 Illinois 38% → 51% (+13) What fans said, play by play
The line in bold above each quote is written by our model from the thread’s comments and the play-by-play.
Q2 3:30 Officials flag Purdue for pass interference on Houser's throw to Dixon Just keep running the most successful offensive play this season (debatable pass interference against Dixon) r/CFB game thread Q3 0:13 Illinois fans rip coach for going for it on fourth down instead of kicking a field goal WHY ARE WE NOT TAKING THE POINTS r/CFB game thread Q4 7:22 Purdue converts a first down as Illinois fans decry the defense's horrendous tackling This teams tackling is horrendous. r/CFB game thread Q4 4:29 Purdue fans mock Illinois offense and referees after Harris touchdown This segment does not inspire any more confidence in the referees in this sport r/CFB game thread Quoted at the top of the page. Q4 3:28 Purdue's Slaughter intercepts Houser, sparking celebration of a likely conference win If houser plays like this the rest of the season we aren’t winning another game r/CFB game thread Purdue’s chance to win after every play. How to read this chart Starts from the pregame line (Illinois -9.5), at 21% for Purdue (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. Under the scores, r/CFB comments per minute from fans with a Illinois or Purdue flair (308 and 548); both sides share one scale, regulation only. A gold diamond marks a play fans were reacting to. Watch the plays The bar and the arrow show Purdue’s chance to win after each play; the logo is the team the play helped.
Play all in order Q2, 4:16 Browne 21-yd TD pass to Harris Purdue leads 13-0 Q2, 4:16 · Purdue 13, Illinois 0 ▲2% Purdue’s chance to win, 58% to 60% ▲2% Purdue’s chance to win, 58% to 60% ▶ Watch from this playCFB ON FOX Q2, 0:21 Houser 7-yd TD pass to Dixon cuts it to 13-7 Q2, 0:21 · Purdue 13, Illinois 7 ▼13% Purdue’s chance to win, 62% to 49% ▼13% Purdue’s chance to win, 62% to 49% ▶ Watch from this playCFB ON FOX Q4, 13:03 Houser sacked for a 9-yd loss Q4, 13:03 · Purdue 16, Illinois 7 ▲7% Purdue’s chance to win, 70% to 77% ▲7% Purdue’s chance to win, 70% to 77% ▶ Watch from this playCFB ON FOX Q4, 4:29 Harris 1-yd TD run Purdue leads 24-10 Q4, 4:29 · Purdue 24, Illinois 10 24-10 score after the play 24-10 score after the play ▶ Watch from this playCFB ON FOX Q4, 3:28 Houser intercepted by Slaughter at the Purdue 8 Q4, 3:28 · Purdue 24, Illinois 10 ▲3% Purdue’s chance to win, 86% to 89% ▲3% Purdue’s chance to win, 86% to 89% ▶ Watch from this playCFB ON FOX Q4, 1:26 Houser 2-yd TD pass to Robinson cuts it to 24-17 Q4, 1:26 · Purdue 24, Illinois 17 ▲5% Purdue’s chance to win, 94% to 99% ▲5% Purdue’s chance to win, 94% to 99% ▶ Watch from this playCFB ON FOX
Every drive Purdue scored on 5 of its 10 drives; Illinois on 3 of its 9.
Purdue’s drives are teal, Illinois’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.
own goal goal line Q1 Purdue: Field goal, from 75 yards out to 11 Field goal Illinois: Missed field goal, from 75 yards out to 14 Missed FG Q2 Purdue: Field goal, from 80 yards out to 16 Field goal Illinois: Punt, from 75 yards out to 68 Punt Purdue: Touchdown, from 78 yards out to 0 Touchdown Illinois: Touchdown, from 75 yards out to 0 Touchdown Purdue: End of half, from 35 yards out to 26 End of half Q3 Illinois: Punt, from 75 yards out to 42 Punt Purdue: Field goal, from 89 yards out to 15 Field goal Illinois: Turned over on downs, from 75 yards out to 17 Downs Purdue: Punt, from 83 yards out to 81 Punt Q4 Illinois: Punt, from 61 yards out to 44 Punt Purdue: Punt, from 91 yards out to 85 Punt Illinois: Field goal, from 60 yards out to 36 Field goal Purdue: Touchdown, from 61 yards out to 0 Touchdown Illinois: Interception, from 79 yards out to 47 Interception Purdue: Punt, from 92 yards out to 88 Punt Illinois: Touchdown, from 66 yards out to 0 Touchdown Purdue: End of game, from 52 yards out to 58 End of game “illinois could be a national championship team and for some reason they’d come out against purdue looking like a MAC team” A Purdue fan When fans got loud Busy
Fans saved the biggest reaction for the closing minutes.
Jump to the loudest stretch
The jump was busy; the crowd was steady.
First Second Third Fourth Purdue fans Illinois fans usual Two crowds, one game The words each side’s fans used far more than the other side, from the game thread.
Illinois fans
houser “If houser plays like this the rest of the season we aren’t winning another game”
Both sets of fans kept coming back to: now, every, god, run.
Box score Purdue 24, Illinois 17
Purdue covered +9.5 by 16.5. The total, 41, stayed under 62.5.
Purdue Illinois Total yards Purdue 345 Illinois 345 345 345 Passing yards Purdue 255 Illinois 225 255 225 Rushing yards Purdue 90 Illinois 120 90 120 First downs Purdue 19 Illinois 26 19 26 Turnovers Purdue 0 Illinois 1 0 1 Time of possession Purdue 31:33 Illinois 28:27 31:33 28:27 Team totals Purdue Illinois Total yards 345 345 Passing 18 of 27, 255 yds 21 of 37, 225 yds Rushing 33 for 90 yds 27 for 120 yds First downs 19 26 Third down 5 of 11 7 of 13 Fourth down 0 of 0 0 of 1 Turnovers 0 1 Penalties 7 for 63 yds 4 for 46 yds Time of possession 31:33 28:27
Purdue leaders Passing Ryan Browne 18 of 27, 255 yds, 1 TDRushing Fame Ijeboi 19 for 65 yds; Antonio Harris 6 for 20 yds, 1 TDReceiving Asaad Waseem 3 for 98 yds; Chauncey Magwood 4 for 53 ydsIllinois leaders Passing Katin Houser 21 of 37, 225 yds, 2 TD, 1 INTRushing Aidan Laughery 12 for 49 yds; Katin Houser 8 for 42 ydsReceiving Collin Dixon 10 for 116 yds, 1 TD; Hudson Clement 4 for 72 ydsNo rain through the game 72° at kickoff · no rain recorded
October game-day temperatures at Memorial Stadium (Champaign, IL)
Win chance with rain, wind and thunder from the nearest airport, by game time Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Illinois favored Purdue favored 0% Win chance Illinois Rain inches per 10 min 0.1 in No rain recorded Wind mph, average and gusts 20 mph 40 mph Hourly wind only at this airport Win chance with rain, wind and thunder from the nearest airport, by game time Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Illinois favored Purdue favored Rain · inches per 10 min 0.1 in No rain recorded Wind · miles per hour 20 40 Hourly wind only at this airport Drag along the chart, or step through the game.
First quarter, 14:53 left3:17 p.m.
Purdue 0, Illinois 0 · Illinois 79% to win
no rain · 72°
Ijeboi 8-yd run
Previous play Next play
Where this weather comes from Measured at Champaign - Willard airport, 5.1 miles away. Rain is NOAA's radar-and-gauge estimate at the stadium and wind is an airport reading; neither is measured on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet; rain radar from NOAA MRMS, through Iowa State University. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.
Before kickoff Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.
Matchups Biggest mismatch: Illinois’s passing EPA against Purdue, 76 points Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.
Illinois’s EPA/play against Purdue’s defense
75 points weaker stronger 50th Illinois offense, 84th percentile · Purdue defense, 9th
Illinois’s passing EPA against Purdue’s defense
76 points weaker stronger 50th Illinois offense, 78th percentile · Purdue defense, 2nd
Illinois’s explosive plays against Purdue’s defense
59 points weaker stronger 50th Illinois offense, 60th percentile · Purdue defense, 1st
Season profile, all the rows Season profile Purdue Illinois
EPA/play, offense
Purdue · 66 Illinois · 84 EPA/play, defense
Purdue · 9 Illinois · 5 Success rate, offense
Purdue · 61 Illinois · 92 Success rate, defense
Purdue · 14 Illinois · 11 Explosive-play rate, offense
Purdue · 61 Illinois · 60 Explosive-play rate, defense
Purdue · 1 Illinois · 35 Rush EPA, offense
Purdue · 37 Illinois · 86 Rush EPA, defense
Purdue · 41 Illinois · 24 Pass EPA, offense
Purdue · 76 Illinois · 78 Pass EPA, defense
Purdue · 2 Illinois · 5 The series The series is tied 47-47-6
100 meetings since 1892 · Illinois has won the last 2
Illinois won Purdue won 1892: Purdue by 6 1893: tie 1894: Purdue by 20 1895: Purdue by 4 1896: tie 1897: Illinois by 30 1899: Purdue by 5 1900: Illinois by 12 1901: Illinois by 22 1902: Illinois by 24 1903: Illinois by 24 1904: Illinois by 18 1905: Purdue by 29 1906: Illinois by 5 1907: Illinois by 17 1908: Illinois by 9 1909: Illinois by 18 1910: Illinois by 11 1911: Illinois by 9 1912: tie 1913: tie 1916: Illinois by 7 1917: Illinois by 27 1919: Illinois by 7 1930: Purdue by 25 1931: Purdue by 7 1943: Purdue by 19 1944: Purdue by 16 1946: Illinois by 36 1947: Purdue by 7 1948: Illinois by 4 1949: Illinois by 19 1952: Purdue by 28 1953: Illinois by 21 1954: Purdue by 14 1955: Purdue by 13 1956: tie 1957: Purdue by 15 1958: Purdue by 23 1959: tie 1960: Illinois by 2 1961: Purdue by 14 1962: Illinois by 4 1963: Illinois by 20 1964: Purdue by 12 1965: Illinois by 21 1966: Purdue by 4 1967: Purdue by 33 1968: Purdue by 18 1969: Purdue by 27 1970: Illinois by 2 1971: Illinois by 14 1972: Purdue by 6 1973: Illinois by 2 1974: Illinois by 4 1975: Purdue by 2 1976: Illinois by 4 1977: Illinois by 7 1978: Purdue by 13 1979: Purdue by 14 1980: Purdue by 25 1981: Purdue by 24 1982: Illinois by 4 1983: Illinois by 14 1984: Illinois by 14 1985: Purdue by 6 1986: Illinois by 7 1987: Purdue by 6 1988: Illinois by 20 1989: Illinois by 12 1990: Illinois by 34 1991: Illinois by 27 1992: Illinois by 3 1993: Illinois by 18 1994: Purdue by 6 1997: Purdue by 45 1998: Purdue by 33 2001: Illinois by 25 2002: Illinois by 7 2003: Purdue by 33 2004: Purdue by 8 2005: Purdue by 34 2006: Purdue by 11 2009: Purdue by 10 2010: Illinois by 34 2011: Purdue by 7 2012: Purdue by 3 2013: Illinois by 4 2014: Purdue by 11 2015: Illinois by 34 2016: Purdue by 3 2017: Purdue by 19 2018: Purdue by 39 2019: Illinois by 18 2020: Purdue by 7 2021: Purdue by 4 2022: Purdue by 7 2023: Purdue by 25 2024: Illinois by 1 2025: Illinois by 16 1892 2025 2025 Illinois 43-27 Illinois won 43-27 at Purdue. Chance to win started at 62%, low 35%, high better than 99%. 2024 Illinois 50-49 Illinois won 50-49 vs Purdue. Chance to win started at 91%, low 42%, high better than 99%. 2023 Purdue 44-19 Illinois lost 19-44 at Purdue. Chance to win started at 61%, low under 1%, high 67%. 2022 Purdue 31-24 Illinois lost 24-31 vs Purdue. Chance to win started at 51%, low 5%, high 77%. 2021 Purdue 13-9 Illinois lost 9-13 at Purdue. Chance to win started at 22%, low under 1%, high 71%. Each line is Illinois’s chance to win through that meeting. Illinois is 1-3 in the meetings since 2018 that were still close in the fourth quarter.
Line, fans and home field The betting line, and the fans Purdue fans are in a better mood than Illinois fans (39th vs 29th among FBS fanbases), even with Illinois favored.
50-50 Model 76% · Line 78% Illinois fans · 29th Purdue fans · 39th Purdue Illinois Illinois favored by 9.5 · Total 62.5
How games like this usually go Illinois by 9.5, on the usual path until Q2 14:57 50% 90% Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 50% 90% Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Half of games 8 in 10 games This game
The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 385 games since 2025 with a favorite of 7.5 to 14.5 points.
The market The spread moved 0.5 points toward Purdue.
opened −10 now −9.5 The total rose 2 points.
opened 60.5 now 62.5 Spread: −10 → −9.5 · Total: 60.5 → 62.5
The books’ cut: 4.3%, the margin built into the odds
Weather at kickoff Mild and dry. Feels like 69° at kickoff.
Purdue at Illinois · Saturday, Oct. 3, 2026 · Memorial Stadium, Champaign
69°feels like at kickoff Dry no rain at kickoff 100weather score, Ideal At kickoff, Oct. 3, 2026.
Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50.
Kickoff times that Saturday Games in this time zone used 5 kickoff times that day, local time (kickoffs within 30 minutes of each other count as one). This game is ringed. At Memorial Stadium that day, a 2:30 pm or 6:45 pm kickoff would have scored 98, against 100 at 3:15 pm.
Rough
Mixed
Comfortable
Ideal (100) 100 Ideal 98 Comfortable 100 Ideal 99 Comfortable 98 Comfortable
11 am 2:30 pm 3:15 pm 6 pm 6:45 pm
11 am: 100, Ideal 2:30 pm: 98, Comfortable 3:15 pm: 100, Ideal (this game) 6 pm: 99, Comfortable 6:45 pm: 98, Comfortable Weather score at each kickoff time.
Tap a dot to read that kickoff time.
At kickoff, Oct. 3, 2026. Wind is not drawn here; gusts are in each score.
Home field Illinois is worth +3.1 points (±4.1) more at home than on the road since 2018 — bottom third of FBS, 31st percentile.
52% at home, 44% on the road against FBS opponents (26-24 home, 18-23 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why ); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads -3.0 at home vs. away over 95 games — inside the ±6.6 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
The visitors travel about 73 miles to get here.
Last meeting in our History pages