Take Jayden Maiava off USC's roster and the first thing you'd miss is 3,711 pass YDS, 2,500-yd club.
6′4″ · 230 lb · Las Vegas, NV · Liberty HS / UNLV
CFB Index
A single number blending on-field production (an EPA-based value lane) with box-score output for this player's position.
0-100, scaled within each position's own cohort — not directly comparable across positions.
The numbers
passing yards · 2026 · through week 3
Backed by 261 yds · 5 TD -- top 1% passing TDs game. -- Best game: 349 pass yds, 3 TD, -2 rush yds, vs Fresno State
The play that turned itSwung USC from 21% to 59% to win.USC at Notre Dame · 34-24
His career numbers, season by seasonThe story
Senior quarterback for USC. 2026: 1,173 passing yards, 12 TD, 1 INT.
How he plays
Operates within the system without forcing anything.
EPA / dropback: 98th percentile.
The full scouting readAura™ · Him Watch
-28aura tax
99th pctl our passing-value metric (wEPA) QBs · 160 qualified, n=127
— the tape outruns the hype.Buzz vs Tape
His own fans read him warmer than the wider college football conversation does — a gap of 33.9 points in belief.
Also worth knowing:
“Jayden Maiava wins the Heisman - USC makes the CFP.”
Jayden Maiava
Jayden Maiava is a cornerstone for USC — measured against the line he joined.
PASS YDS · 2,500-YD CLUB
3,711
3711 passing yards — clears the 2,500-QB volume bar.
AI-generated narrative · may contain errors · not journalism · updated 2026-09-22
His career
He was winning awards before he was old enough to be a story.
The snaps went the other way.
Career arc
Trophy case · Confirmed honors
What the selectors said
ALL-BIG TEN
All-Big Ten mention (2025)
FRESHMAN HONORS
Freshman recognition (2023)
5 mention(s)
Badges
Coaching lineage · 2023–2026
1 coachPlayed his entire career under Lincoln Riley.
Game by game
Point color shows the opponent's defensive strength that week (red = weaker defense, blue = stronger) — dashed line is this player's own season average.
Game log · Week-by-week
2026 season · 4 games
| Wk | Opp | CMP/ATT | YDS | TD | INT | YPA | QBR | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | W 42-26vs San José State | 25/29 | 286 | 2 | 0 | 9.9 | 90.0 | Season-high 349 yds |
| Wk 1 | W 39-0vs Fresno State | 23/25 | 349 | 3 | 0 | 14.0 | 98.0 | Season-high 349 yds |
| Wk 2 | W 49-30vs Louisiana | 19/29 | 261 | 5 | 1 | 9.0 | — | 5 TD passes |
| Wk 3 | W 42-35@ Rutgers | 20/32 | 277 | 2 | 0 | 8.7 | 66.9 | Clean 2-TD game |
| Total | 87/115 | 1173 | 12 | 1 | 10.4 | 85.0 |
SIGNATURE GAME · Week 1 · 2026
W 39–0
vs Fresno State
349 yds · 3 TD · 0 INT · QBR 98.0 · -2 rush yds (3 car)
Dominant 39-point win at home against Fresno State.
With T. Mosley — 4 rec · 104 yds · 2 TD · J. Williams — 63 yds · 0 TD · 0 INT · QBR 84.7
Signature plays · top plays by |EPA|
The plays that mattered most
Since week 2: +277 passing yards, +2 passing TD.
Season context · Team result + system
Where this profile ranks vs the QB cohort
Box-score + play-by-play EPA percentiles
Elite: epa / dropback (98th percentile). Strength: success rate (98th percentile). Concern: rush yards (27th percentile).
Real play-by-play efficiency
Season trend
Percentiles versus same-position peers with enough snaps this season. Most bars are box-score rates; EPA / success-rate bars are computed from real play-by-play (offense only — no defensive EPA model exists yet).
Pass Profile · True throw depth (charted plays)
Adjusted ANY/A, sack rate, and where the yards came from
Adjusted ANY/A
11.566 of 126 QBsSack rate
1.7%15 of 126 QBsRarely sacked (15 of 126 QBs) and still 6 of 126 in Adjusted ANY/A.
Adjusted ANY/A uses full-season box-score totals (attempts, yards, TDs, INTs); sack rate is play-by-play-derived.
Behind LOS · Negative air yds
Short · 0–9 air yds
Middle · 10–19 air yds
Deep · 20+ air yds
Overall 75.0% completion on 116 attempts · 67% completion on 12 deep attempts (20+ air yds).
Zeitgeist Passer Rating
2026 · our own passing-efficiency number, shown next to the 1979 formula it does not replace.
Thin sample: 110 dropbacks88Zeitgeist Passer Ratingnot ranked until 125 dropbacks
--NCAA passer ratingno box-score line yet
Positive-play rate weight 24%
66.8%100th pct of FBS QBsshare of dropbacks that gained expected points · -0.4% schedule adj.Yards per attempt weight 56%
9.97100th pct of FBS QBssacks excluded · +0.1 schedule adj.Sack rate weight 21% (penalty)
2.0%95th pct of FBS QBsthe input passer rating cannot see · +0.2% schedule adj.Opponent-adjusted; garbage time excluded (8 of 118 dropbacks dropped). 50 = FBS average; the number is pulled toward 50 when the sample is thin. Scaled against the 2025 FBS population until enough 2026 QBs qualify. How ZPR is built.
Splits · Per-game
2026 season · 4 games
Home vs Road
| YDS/g | TD/g | YPA | INT/g | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home3g | 299 | 3.3 | 11.0 | 0.3 |
| Road1g | 277 | 2.0 | 8.7 | 0.0 |
First half vs Second half
| YDS/g | TD/g | YPA | INT/g | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weeks 1-74g | 293 | 3.0 | 10.4 | 0.2 |
Supporting cast · Scheme
Staff and system around the player
Head Coach
Lincoln Riley
Pass share
47.3%
129 pass / 144 run
Plays / game
68.2
4 games
Scheme: Balanced.
Player standing · 2026
Our Heisman model has him in the top five; no finalist honor is on the books yet.
Recognition
2026 outlook
Heisman market2.6%full market ›
In the mix to repeat All-Big Ten
Based on 2025: #2 of 19 Big Ten QBs
49% estimated, 95% confidence interval 43–54%. Base rate measured from players who finished at a comparable rank in their conference and came back the next season. It is an estimate from a small sample, not a forecast of this player.
Play style
Operates within the system without forcing anything.
CFB Index positional classification
Player DNA
Balanced passer who operates within the system, without one standout number carrying the profile.
His 2026 production profile sits closest to Mike White’s 2016 season.
Matches Mike on
Differs from Mike on
Through 4 college seasons, his career arc tracks closest to Jaden Craig’s path through TCU.
Matches Jaden on
As a senior, his production profile tracks closest to Ryan Browne's senior season at Purdue (2026).
Matches Ryan on
Differs from Ryan on
Player DNA
Heisman futures · sportsbook market
#8 in market ▲ from #12 · 6 books
Heisman Trajectory · 2026
Peaked at #4 — sustained finalist conversation.
CAREER: Throughout his three-year career (one season at UNLV and two at USC) has gone 590-of-925 (63.8%) for 7,997 yards with 52 TDs and 26 INTs through action in 34 games with 31 career starts. He has recorded 147 carries for 479 yards (3.3 avg.) with 13 TDs. As a Trojan, he has hit 63.9% of…