New school, new number, same question — and Jaylen Raynor's early answer at Iowa State is 3,364 pass YDS, 2,500-yd club.
6′1″ · 208 lb · Winston-Salem, NC · East Forsyth
CFB Index
A single number blending on-field production (an EPA-based value lane) with box-score output for this player's position.
0-100, scaled within each position's own cohort — not directly comparable across positions.
The numbers
passing yards · 2026 · through week 3
3 games into 2026 so far -- Backed by 383 yds · 6 TD -- top 0.1% passing TDs game. -- Best game: 184 pass yds, 2 TD, 32 rush yds, vs Southeast Missouri State
The play that turned itSwung Arkansas State from 13% to 90% to win.Texas State at Arkansas State · 31-30
His career numbers, season by seasonThe story
Senior quarterback for Iowa State. 2026: 3 games with a box-score line.
Aura™ · Him Watch
+32aura tax
6th pctl our passing-value metric (wEPA) QBs · 160 qualified, n=35
— more hype than the tape.Buzz vs Tape
He's mentioned more than 38% of qualified QBs this season, but his production sits in just the 6th percentile — a gap of 32 points between volume and tape.
Also worth knowing:
“Shades of Matt Campbell's near disastrous loss at the hands of current Iowa State QB JAYLEN RAYNOR”
Fan claims · every quote verified verbatim
No one is going to respect our passing game if Raynor can’t hit wide open passes like that. Everyone will just start loading the box and daring us to pass.
Based on 1 comment from 1 poster across 1 thread · Sep 19, 2026 · via CFB
Jaylen Raynor
Jaylen Raynor arrives at Iowa State with a new fit to prove and an old chapter behind him.
PASS YDS · 2,500-YD CLUB
3,364
3364 passing yards — clears the 2,500-QB volume bar.
AI-generated narrative · may contain errors · not journalism · updated 2026-09-22
His career
He was winning awards before he was old enough to be a story.
Career arc
Trophy case · Confirmed honors
What the selectors said
ALL-SUN BELT
All-Sun Belt mention (2024)
Coaching lineage · 2023–2026
2 coachesCoaching transition mid-career: Matt Campbell → Jimmy Rogers. Worth noting in scheme + development context.
Where He Ended Up · Transfer
Transferred to Iowa State
| Season | Team | |||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | Iowa State | 29 | 52 | 55.8% | 434 | 8.3 | 4 | 1 | 147.4 | 50 | -- | -- |
| 2025 | Arkansas State | 332 | 500 | 66.4% | 3,364 | 6.7 | 19 | 11 | 131.1 | 32 | -- | -- |
| 2024 | Arkansas State | 259 | 420 | 61.7% | 2,783 | 6.6 | 16 | 10 | 125.1 | 25 | -- | -- |
| 2023 | Arkansas State | 166 | 285 | 58.2% | 2,543 | 8.9 | 17 | 7 | 148.0 | 64 | -- | -- |
| Career | 786 | 1,257 | 62.5% | 9,124 | 7.3 | 56 | 29 | 133.6 | 37 | -- | -- |
| Season | Team | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | Iowa State | 21 | 110 | 5.2 | 2 | -- |
| 2025 | Arkansas State | 154 | 428 | 2.8 | 7 | -- |
| 2024 | Arkansas State | 137 | 387 | 2.8 | 3 | -- |
| 2023 | Arkansas State | 123 | 380 | 3.1 | 5 | -- |
| Career | 435 | 1,305 | 3.0 | 17 | -- |
Game by game
Point color shows the opponent's defensive strength that week (red = weaker defense, blue = stronger) — dashed line is this player's own season average.
Game log · Week-by-week
2026 season · 3 games
| Wk | Opp | CMP/ATT | YDS | TD | INT | YPA | QBR | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | W 38-10vs Southeast Missouri State | 8/16 | 184 | 2 | 0 | 11.5 | — | Season-high 184 yds |
| Wk 2 | L 13-16@ Iowa | 10/19 | 117 | 1 | 0 | 6.2 | 50.0 | |
| Wk 3 | W 55-7vs Bowling Green | 11/17 | 133 | 1 | 1 | 7.8 | 46.6 | |
| Total | 29/52 | 434 | 4 | 1 | 8.5 | 48.3 |
SIGNATURE GAME · Week 1 · 2026
W 38–10
Signature plays · top plays by |EPA|
The plays that mattered most
Since week 2: +133 passing yards, +1 passing TD, +1 interception.
Season context · Team result + system
Where this profile ranks vs the QB cohort
Box-score percentiles
Elite: rush tds (84th percentile). Concern: pass yards (0th percentile).
Percentiles versus same-position peers with enough snaps this season, based on box-score rates.
Pass Profile · True throw depth (charted plays)
Adjusted ANY/A, sack rate, and where the yards came from
Adjusted ANY/A
8.5645 of 126 QBsSack rate
3.7%45 of 126 QBsRarely sacked (45 of 126 QBs) and still 45 of 126 in Adjusted ANY/A.
Adjusted ANY/A uses full-season box-score totals (attempts, yards, TDs, INTs); sack rate is play-by-play-derived.
Behind LOS · Negative air yds
Short · 0–9 air yds
Middle · 10–19 air yds
Deep · 20+ air yds
Overall 55.8% completion on 52 attempts · 33% completion on 12 deep attempts (20+ air yds).
Zeitgeist Passer Rating
2026 · our own passing-efficiency number, shown next to the 1979 formula it does not replace.
Thin sample: 49 dropbacks50Zeitgeist Passer Ratingnot ranked until 125 dropbacks
--NCAA passer ratingno box-score line yet
Positive-play rate weight 24%
44.3%38th pct of FBS QBsshare of dropbacks that gained expected points · -2.6% schedule adj.Yards per attempt weight 56%
7.0349th pct of FBS QBssacks excluded · -0.7 schedule adj.Sack rate weight 21% (penalty)
4.3%72th pct of FBS QBsthe input passer rating cannot see · +0.2% schedule adj.Opponent-adjusted; garbage time excluded (4 of 53 dropbacks dropped). 50 = FBS average; the number is pulled toward 50 when the sample is thin. Scaled against the 2025 FBS population until enough 2026 QBs qualify. How ZPR is built.
Splits · Per-game
2026 season · 3 games
Home vs Road
| YDS/g | TD/g | YPA | INT/g | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home2g | 158 | 1.5 | 9.7 | 0.5 |
| Road1g | 117 | 1.0 | 6.2 | 0.0 |
First half vs Second half
| YDS/g | TD/g | YPA | INT/g | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weeks 1-73g | 145 | 1.3 | 8.5 | 0.3 |
Supporting cast · Scheme
Staff and system around the player
Head Coach
Jimmy Rogers
Pass share
32.7%
54 pass / 111 run
Plays / game
55.0
3 games
Scheme: Run-heavy, slow tempo.
Player standing · 2026
On the two-deep and pushing for snaps.
Play style
Operates within the system without forcing anything.
CFB Index positional classification
Player DNA
Balanced passer who operates within the system, without one standout number carrying the profile.
His 2025 production profile sits closest to Jaylen Raynor’s 2024 season.
Matches Jaylen on
Differs from Jaylen on
Through 4 college seasons, his career arc tracks closest to Kellen Mond’s path through Texas A&M.
Matches Kellen on
As a junior, his production profile tracks closest to Giovanni Lopez's junior season at North Carolina (2025).
Matches Giovanni on
Differs from Giovanni on
Player DNA
Heisman Trajectory · 2026
Peaked at #33 this season.
Awards & Honors Co-Captain (2026) Sun Belt Conference Freshman of the Year (2023) On3 True Freshman All-American (2023) Big 12 Commissioner's Honor Roll (S26) 2025 (at Arkansas State) Played and started all 13 games … completed 66 percent of his passes (333-for-501) for career-bests of 3,361…