Atkinson just somehow is completely unaffected by physical pressure from defenders. Fully collapsed pocket and he’s dropping dimes 3 games in a row. Jensen Huang, now would be a…
Before kickoff, our ratings gave Oregon State a 62% chance, and the closing betting line (Oregon State was a 17.5-point favorite) put it at 92%.
TargetingQ2 11:08
FinalOregon State 52-17 MontanaOregon State wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.
FinalMontana 17-52 Oregon StateMontana lostMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.
No single play moved the chance by 20 points.
No single play moved the chance by 20 points.
What fans said, play by play
The line in bold above each quote is written by our model from the thread’s comments and the play-by-play.
Q1 11:24Oregon State fans celebrate Atkinson's touchdown pass to Olsen on the opening driveHell of a first drive.r/CFB game thread
Q2 8:42Atkinson throws deep touchdown to Legree as Oregon State fans celebrateLegree is inevitabler/CFB game thread
Q2 5:17Atkinson passes to Temple for touchdown, extending Oregon State lead to 28-3Quoted at the top of the page.
Q2 0:15Oregon State fans argue a pass to Newberry was a touchdownAccording to Michigan’s replay camera, that is a touchdownr/CFB game threadNot a TD. But we’ll put it in.r/CFB game thread
Oregon State’s chance to win after every play. How to read this chartStarts from the pregame line (Oregon State -17.5), at 91% for Oregon State (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. Outlined diamonds mark rare plays. The gray band is r/CFB game-thread activity, its loudest stretches in gold. A gold diamond marks a play fans were reacting to.
Every drive
Oregon State scored on 8 of its 12 drives; Montana on 3 of its 13.
Oregon State’s drives are teal, Montana’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.
Montana 0, Oregon State 0 · Oregon State 91% to win
no rain · 57°
Ah Yat 7-yd pass to Davis
Where this weather comes fromMeasured at Corvallis Muni airport, 4.3 miles away. Rain is NOAA's radar-and-gauge estimate at the stadium and wind is an airport reading; neither is measured on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet; rain radar from NOAA MRMS, through Iowa State University. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.
Before kickoff
Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.
Recent games
Last three games
Montana · 3-0
Rated 93rd in our preseason ratings, 105th now.
Three straight wins — but still hunting a ranked opponent.
Oregon State is rated 4.1 points ahead as of week 2. Our power rating by week; higher is better.
The series
Oregon State leads the series 12-2-2
16 meetings since 1925 · Montana has won the last 2
1996Montana 35-14
1990Montana 22-15
1982Oregon State 30-10
1950Oregon State 20-0
1949Oregon State 63-14
Line, fans and home field
The betting line, and the fans
Our model and the betting line don’t fully agree on Oregon State’s chances here.
Oregon State favored by 17.5 · Total 55.5
How games like this usually go
Oregon State by 17.5, and it went to form
Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game
The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 251 games since 2025 with a favorite of 14.5 to 21.5 points.
The market
The total rose 3 points.
Total: 52.5 → 55.5
The books’ cut: 4.3%, the margin built into the odds
Weather at kickoff
Cool and dry. Feels like 57° at kickoff.
Montana at Oregon State · Saturday, Sept. 19, 2026 · Reser Stadium, Corvallis
57°feels like at kickoff
Dryno rain at kickoff
99weather score, Comfortable
At kickoff, Sept. 19, 2026.
Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50.
Kickoff times that Saturday
Games in this time zone used 4 kickoff times that day, local time (kickoffs within 30 minutes of each other count as one). This game is ringed. At Reser Stadium that day, a 12:30 pm or 4:15 pm kickoff would have scored 100, against 99 at 8 pm.
Oregon State is worth +2.7 points (±4.0) more at home than on the road since 2018 — bottom third of FBS, 25th percentile.
50% at home, 32% on the road against FBS opponents (23-23 home, 14-30 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +0.6 at home vs. away over 97 games — inside the ±5.6 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
Night kickoff — historically worth about half a point more to the home side against the number, and not much more than that. The visitors travel about 476 miles to get here.
Oregon State 52-17 Montana
Oregon State wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.