Before kickoff, our ratings gave Kansas State an 84% chance, and the closing betting line (Kansas State was a 20.5-point favorite) put it at 95%.
Favored the whole way: Kansas State never fell below 75%.
Tulane never had better than a 24% chance.
17 unansweredKansas State · Q2 5:14
FinalKansas State 31-20 TulaneKansas State wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.
FinalTulane 20-31 Kansas StateTulane lostMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.
No single play moved the chance by 20 points.
No single play moved the chance by 20 points.
What fans said, play by play
The line in bold above each quote is written by our model from the thread’s comments and the play-by-play.
Q1 8:37Tulane scores a touchdown to take a 7-0 lead over Kansas StateYO WTF WE SCORED??? RMFW!!!r/CFB game thread
Q2 2:38Kansas State fans celebrate Avery Johnson's touchdown run as the Wildcats extend their leadOh my God we remembered that freshman Avery was arguably the most dangerous running qb in cfbr/CFB game threadQuoted at the top of the page.
Q2 0:17Tulane fans celebrate Helmke's 58-yard field goal as rivals call it NFL levelBut goddamn, that kick!r/CFB game thread
Q3 12:47Fans decry generous spot on Johnson pass to FieldsThat's the most generous spot I've ever seen, that's crazyr/CFB game thread
Kansas State’s chance to win after every play. How to read this chartStarts from the pregame line (Kansas State -20.5), at 94% for Kansas State (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. Outlined diamonds mark rare plays. Under the scores, r/CFB comments per minute from fans with a Kansas State or Tulane flair (325 and 22); both sides share one scale, regulation only. A gold diamond marks a play fans were reacting to.
Watch the plays
The bar and the arrow show Kansas State’s chance to win after each play; the logo is the team the play helped.
Kansas State’s chance to make the playoff rose from 7% to 13%.
Make the playoff
Tulane · lost2% → ▼0%
Kansas State · won7% → ▲13%
Win the conference
Tulane · lost7% → 7%
Kansas State · won7% → ▲12%
Before the game (September 18, 2026) → after this result, in our model.
Box score
Kansas State 31, Tulane 20
Tulane covered +20.5 by 9.5. The total, 51, went over 49.5.
Team totals
Tulane
Kansas State
Total yards
260
428
Passing
13 of 26, 165 yds
21 of 28, 227 yds
Rushing
33 for 95 yds
37 for 201 yds
First downs
18
20
Third down
7 of 15
10 of 16
Fourth down
0 of 0
1 of 1
Turnovers
0
0
Penalties
5 for 20 yds
5 for 54 yds
Time of possession
26:19
33:41
Tulane leaders
Passing Kadin Semonza 13 of 26, 165 yds, 1 TD
Rushing Maurice Turner 7 for 64 yds; Johnnie Daniels 10 for 59 yds
Receiving Oliver Mitchell Jr. 1 for 41 yds; Bredell Richardson 3 for 40 yds
Kansas State leaders
Passing Avery Johnson 21 of 28, 227 yds
Rushing Avery Johnson 12 for 152 yds, 2 TD; Joe Jackson 9 for 24 yds
Receiving Jaron Tibbs 9 for 114 yds; Will Anciaux 3 for 59 yds
No rain and calm
88° at kickoff · no rain recorded · wind 12 mph from the southwest, mostly at an angle to the field, gusts to 22
Warmer than 9 in 10 of the 65 other games played at Bill Snyder Family Stadium since 2016 (airport temperature during the game window). The usual here around this date is 73°, with about 7 in 10 games between 61° and 84°.
Tulane 0, Kansas State 0 · Kansas State 94% to win
no rain · wind 8 mph from the southwest, mostly at an angle to the field, gusts to 16 · 89°
Semonza incomplete to Turner
Where this weather comes fromMeasured at Manhattan airport, 6.4 miles away. Rain is NOAA's radar-and-gauge estimate at the stadium and wind is an airport reading; neither is measured on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet; rain radar from NOAA MRMS, through Iowa State University. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.
Before kickoff
Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.
Recent games
Last two games
Tulane · 1-1
Rated 75th in our preseason ratings, 71st now.
1-1 in its last two — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.
Kansas State is rated 6.2 points ahead as of week 2. Our power rating by week; higher is better.
Matchups
Biggest mismatch: Tulane’s explosive plays against Kansas State, 95 points
Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.
Tulane’s explosive plays against Kansas State’s defense
Tulane offense, 100th percentile · Kansas State defense, 5th
Tulane’s success rate against Kansas State’s defense
Tulane offense, 2nd percentile · Kansas State defense, 88th
Kansas State’s rushing EPA against Tulane’s defense
Kansas State offense, 94th percentile · Tulane defense, 36th
Season profile, all the rows
Season profile
TulaneKansas State
EPA/play, offense
EPA/play, defense
Success rate, offense
Success rate, defense
Explosive-play rate, offense
Explosive-play rate, defense
Rush EPA, offense
Rush EPA, defense
Pass EPA, offense
Pass EPA, defense
The series
Tulane leads the series 2-1
3 meetings since 1988 · Kansas State won the last meeting
2024Kansas State 34-27
2022Tulane 17-10
1988Tulane 20-16
Each line is Kansas State’s chance to win through that meeting. Kansas State is 1-1 in the meetings since 2018 that were still close in the fourth quarter. Older meetings have no play by play, so no line.
Line, fans and home field
The betting line, and the fans
Kansas State fans are feeling it about like the typical fanbase this week (43rd among FBS fanbases), and the other side is no happier.
Model · 84%
Line · 95%
Kansas State fans · 43rd
Tulane fans · 9th
Kansas State favored by 20.5 · Total 49.5
How games like this usually go
Kansas State by 20.5, and it went to form
Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game
The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 251 games since 2025 with a favorite of 14.5 to 21.5 points.
The market
The books’ cut: 4.1%, the margin built into the odds
Weather at kickoff
Hot and dry. Feels like 95° at kickoff.
Tulane at Kansas State · Saturday, Sept. 19, 2026 · Bill Snyder Family Stadium, Manhattan
95°feels like at kickoff
Dryno rain at kickoff
52weather score, Rough
Tiedfor the best of the day's 8 kickoff times
At kickoff, Sept. 19, 2026.
Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50.
Kickoff times that Saturday
Games in this time zone used 8 kickoff times that day, local time (kickoffs within 30 minutes of each other count as one). This game, ringed, was tied for the best of the day's eight kickoff times. At Bill Snyder Family Stadium that day, a 7 pm kickoff would have scored 54, against 52 at 11 am.
Kansas State is worth +5.3 points (±3.7) more at home than on the road since 2018 — top third of FBS, 72nd percentile.
65% at home, 44% on the road against FBS opponents (32-17 home, 18-23 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +3.2 at home vs. away over 98 games — inside the ±6.5 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
Kansas State · Q2 5:14
Kansas State wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.