FinalVirginia Tech 21-14 Boston CollegeVirginia Tech wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.At the airport: gusts to 45 mph, 0.1 in of rain
FinalBoston College 14-21 Virginia TechBoston College lostMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.At the airport: gusts to 45 mph, 0.1 in of rain
The two plays that swung it
1Q4 8:05Grunkemeyer 14-yd TD pass to Jackson, ties it 14-14airport gusts to 45 mphVirginia Tech 34% → 65% (+31)
2Q4 4:58Overton 76-yd TD run, Virginia Tech goes ahead 21-14airport gusts to 41 mphVirginia Tech 67% → 90% (+23)
The two plays that swung it
1Q4 8:05Grunkemeyer 14-yd TD pass to Jackson, ties it 14-14airport gusts to 45 mphBoston College 66% → 35% (−31)
2Q4 4:58Overton 76-yd TD run, Virginia Tech goes ahead 21-14airport gusts to 41 mphBoston College 33% → 10% (−23)
What fans said, play by play
The line in bold above each quote is written by our model from the thread’s comments and the play-by-play.
Q2 0:16Virginia Tech's John Love kicks a 45-yard field goal to make it 3-0Love is gonna be so clutch for an NFL team next yearr/CFB game thread
Q3 1:13Virginia Tech fans rip the 4th-and-4 decision and BC's flopQuoted at the top of the page.That was an embellishment level flop with the armsr/CFB game thread
Q4 11:09Virginia Tech fans blame coach Pry for failing to stop McKenzie's read option touchdownMediocre QB runs for a career day. Same old Tech.r/CFB game threadPry showing zero ability to adjust the defense to the QB runr/CFB game thread
Q4 6:45Virginia Tech fans rage at late slide targeting penalty on McKenzie runYou absolutely cannot call that after picking up the previous targeting flagr/CFB game thread
Q4 5:10Overton runs 76 yards for a touchdown to put Virginia Tech aheadCHECK OUT THAT OVERTON SHIFTr/CFB game threadIf we win this game it's Overtonr/CFB game thread
Virginia Tech’s chance to win after every play. How to read this chartStarts from the pregame line (Virginia Tech -14.5), at 80% for Virginia Tech (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. Outlined diamonds mark rare plays. Under the scores, r/CFB comments per minute from fans with a Boston College or Virginia Tech flair (182 and 1,366); both sides share one scale, regulation only. A gold diamond marks a play fans were reacting to.The blue strip under the chart is the weather at the airport. A 45 mph gust is stronger than the peak gust in 99% of games since 2018. Measured at Boston Logan International Airport, 8.2 miles away. Full conditions below.The blue strip under the chart is the weather at the airport. 0.3 in of rain by radar over the stadium; the airport 8.2 miles away recorded 0.1 in, heaviest in the second quarter. Measured at Boston Logan International Airport, 8.2 miles away. Full conditions below.
Watch the plays
The bar and the arrow show Virginia Tech’s chance to win after each play; the logo is the team the play helped.
How Boston College fans took it: “The flip side of course being that he assembled this team and is the root cause of it not being talented” r/CFB game thread
Virginia Tech’s chance to make the playoff rose from 6% to 7%.
Make the playoff
Virginia Tech · won6% → ▲7%
Boston College · lost0% → 0%
Win the conference
Virginia Tech · won5% → ▲6%
Boston College · lost0% → 0%
Before the game (September 25, 2026) → after this result, in our model.
Box score
Virginia Tech 21, Boston College 14
Boston College covered +14.5 by 7.5. The total, 35, stayed under 45.5.
Team totals
Virginia Tech
Boston College
Total yards
370
261
Passing
22 of 35, 147 yds
11 of 23, 111 yds
Rushing
42 for 223 yds
38 for 150 yds
First downs
23
13
Third down
4 of 15
2 of 13
Fourth down
0 of 2
1 of 2
Turnovers
1
0
Penalties
4 for 45 yds
8 for 89 yds
Time of possession
28:40
31:20
Virginia Tech leaders
Passing Ethan Grunkemeyer 22 of 35, 147 yds, 1 TD
Rushing Jeffrey Overton Jr. 25 for 209 yds, 1 TD; Marcellous Hawkins 10 for 19 yds
Receiving Que'Sean Brown 8 for 51 yds; Marlion Jackson 3 for 41 yds, 1 TD
Boston College leaders
Passing Mason McKenzie 11 of 23, 111 yds
Rushing Mason McKenzie 26 for 138 yds, 2 TD; Evan Dickens 6 for 9 yds
Receiving Jaedn Skeete 2 for 37 yds; Dawson Pough 2 for 29 yds
Rain and wind all game, gusting to 45 mph at the airport
57° at kickoff · 0.3 in of rain by radar over the stadium; the airport 8.2 miles away recorded 0.1 in · wind 29 mph from the north-northeast, mostly along the field, gusts to 45
A 45 mph gust is stronger than the peak gust in 99% of games since 2018.
Each gray tick is one game. The black line is the typical game.
The usual here around this date is 64°, with about 7 in 10 games between 56° and 72°.
Virginia Tech 0, Boston College 0 · Boston College 19% to win
rain 0.01 in per 10 minutes · wind 29 mph from the north-northeast, mostly along the field, gusts to 44 · 56°
McKenzie 3-yd pass to Green
Jump to
The same game in two conditions
Heavier rain
Light rain or none
Runs and passes
16
115
Share that were passes
56%
43%
Yards per play
3.6
5.4
Turnovers
0
0
The numbers are small: read it as a description, not a result. How this is countedHeavier rain means 0.02 inch or more in 10 minutes at the airport. Only plays while the score was within two touchdowns, so a blowout does not skew it. Same two teams in both columns, so team strength is held constant. Game situation still is not.
Where this weather comes fromMeasured at Boston Logan International Airport, 8.2 miles away. Rain is NOAA's radar-and-gauge estimate at the stadium and wind is an airport reading; neither is measured on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet; rain radar from NOAA MRMS, through Iowa State University. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.
Before kickoff
Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.
Recent games
Last three games
Virginia Tech · 3-0
Rated 51st in our preseason ratings, 40th now, up 11 spots.
Three straight wins — but still hunting a ranked opponent.
Virginia Tech is rated 9.4 points ahead as of week 3. Our power rating by week; higher is better.
Matchups
Biggest mismatch: Boston College’s explosive plays against Virginia Tech, 69 points
Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.
Boston College’s explosive plays against Virginia Tech’s defense
Boston College offense, 76th percentile · Virginia Tech defense, 7th
Boston College’s success rate against Virginia Tech’s defense
Boston College offense, 18th percentile · Virginia Tech defense, 83rd
Boston College’s rushing EPA against Virginia Tech’s defense
Boston College offense, 23rd percentile · Virginia Tech defense, 82nd
Season profile, all the rows
Season profile
Virginia TechBoston College
EPA/play, offense
EPA/play, defense
Success rate, offense
Success rate, defense
Explosive-play rate, offense
Explosive-play rate, defense
Rush EPA, offense
Rush EPA, defense
Pass EPA, offense
Pass EPA, defense
The series
Virginia Tech leads the series 22-11
33 meetings since 1993 · Virginia Tech has won the last 3
2024Virginia Tech 42-21
2023Virginia Tech 48-22
2022Virginia Tech 27-10
2021Boston College 17-3
2020Virginia Tech 40-14
Each line is Boston College’s chance to win through that meeting. Boston College is 1-1 in the meetings since 2018 that were still close in the fourth quarter.
Line, fans and home field
The betting line, and the fans
Virginia Tech fans are feeling it more than most fanbases this week (76th among FBS fanbases), in line with the numbers.
Virginia Tech favored by 14.5 · Total 45.5
How games like this usually go
Virginia Tech by 14.5: the game against the usual path
Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game
The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 251 games since 2025 with a favorite of 14.5 to 21.5 points.
The market
The spread moved 0.5 points toward Virginia Tech.
The total fell 9 points.
Spread: +14 → +14.5 · Total: 54.5 → 45.5
The books’ cut: 4.0%, the margin built into the odds
Weather at kickoff
Cool, with rain. Feels like 56° at kickoff.
Virginia Tech at Boston College · Saturday, Sept. 26, 2026 · Alumni Stadium, Chestnut Hill
56°feels like at kickoff
0.12 inrain at kickoff
75weather score, Mixed
Tiedfor the best of the day's 8 kickoff times
At kickoff, Sept. 26, 2026.
Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50.
Kickoff times that Saturday
Games in this time zone used 8 kickoff times that day, local time (kickoffs within 30 minutes of each other count as one). This game, ringed, was tied for the best of the day's eight kickoff times. At Alumni Stadium that day, a 2 pm kickoff would have scored 77, against 75 at noon.
Boston College is worth +1.7 points (±3.5) more at home than on the road since 2018 — bottom third of FBS, 13th percentile.
46% at home, 36% on the road against FBS opponents (22-26 home, 16-29 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads -0.0 at home vs. away over 100 games — inside the ±6.1 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
Virginia Tech · Q4 4:58
Virginia Tech wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.At the airport: gusts to 45 mph, 0.1 in of rain