The turning point:Flora 3-yd run (Q1, 13:25). Utah went from 78% to 59% to win.
Before kickoff, our ratings gave Utah a 77% chance, and the closing betting line (Utah was a 7.5-point favorite) put it at 73%.
Favored the whole way: Utah never fell below 58%.
Iowa State never had better than a 41% chance.
FinalUtah 31-17 Iowa StateUtah wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.
FinalIowa State 17-31 UtahIowa State lostMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.
The play that swung it
1Q1 13:25Flora 3-yd runUtah 78% → 59% (−19)
The play that swung it
1Q1 13:25Flora 3-yd runIowa State 22% → 41% (+19)
What fans said, play by play
The line in bold above each quote is written by our model from the thread’s comments and the play-by-play.
Q1 6:34The punt returner made a bad decision on the return.I genuinely don’t understand why Carvalho is still the kick returner. Dude makes SO many bad decisionsr/CFB game thread
Q1 0:12A player made an impressive run.Holy crap! Wayshawn!!r/CFB game thread
Q2 1:35Utah fans celebrate Parker's touchdown and criticize Iowa State's dirty playUtah is 92-30 in their last six quarters at Iowa State.r/CFB game threadParker better get some conference awards and love this week from the Big 12. Dude needs to be acknowledged.r/CFB game thread
Q3 4:50Utah fans are sure Raynor's pass to Flora was an interception, but officials rule it incompleteThat’s an interception fellasr/CFB game threadJust awful job by the refs there.r/CFB game thread
Q4 11:23Utah fans rage as officials overturn turnover on Raynor pass to OverbyRefsr/CFB game threadQuoted at the top of the page.
Q4 10:34Utah fans demand Parker touches after Dampier's incomplete pass and late hit penaltyDampier got the yips, put Byrd in to finish the gamer/CFB game thread
Q4 2:46Utah fans celebrate Bennee's interception and Wayshawn's touchdown with reliefBennee>>>Snowdenr/CFB game thread
Utah’s chance to win after every play. How to read this chartStarts from the pregame line (Utah -7.5), at 82% for Utah (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. Under the scores, r/CFB comments per minute from fans with a Iowa State or Utah flair (652 and 1,958); both sides share one scale, regulation only. A gold diamond marks a play fans were reacting to.
Watch the plays
The bar and the arrow show Utah’s chance to win after each play; the logo is the team the play helped.
The words each side’s fans used far more than the other side, from the game thread.
Utah fans
refs“Whether you agree with the refs or not, this is still one of the best things added to the sport in my lifetime.”
Iowa State fans
raynor“I’m officially out on Raynor. Dude doesn’t run it and overthrows more often than he completes it. Moberley cannot be that much worse.”
cant“Raynor cant lock on like that against a superior opponent. That throw had disaster written all over it from the moment he cocked back to let loose.”
side“Win or lose we booze Side note, some Utes fans are feisty lmao. I wasn't aware of your game”
either“Raynor is pretty impressive. He makes up for being a bad downfield passer by not really being a good short passer either.”
Both sets of fans kept coming back to: ball, half, call, back.
What it cost
Utah’s chance to make the playoff rose from 22% to 26%.
Make the playoff
Utah · won22% → ▲26%
Iowa State · lost0% → 0%
Win the conference
Utah · won19% → ▲23%
Iowa State · lost0% → 0%
Before the game (September 25, 2026) → after this result, in our model.
Box score
Utah 31, Iowa State 17
Utah covered −7.5 by 6.5. The total, 48, went over 46.5.
Team totals
Utah
Iowa State
Total yards
411
316
Passing
18 of 27, 206 yds
21 of 40, 205 yds
Rushing
33 for 205 yds
33 for 111 yds
First downs
21
23
Third down
3 of 10
3 of 14
Fourth down
1 of 1
2 of 5
Turnovers
0
2
Penalties
8 for 69 yds
5 for 55 yds
Time of possession
28:04
31:56
Utah leaders
Passing Devon Dampier 18 of 27, 206 yds, 2 TD
Rushing Wayshawn Parker 18 for 174 yds, 2 TD; Devon Dampier 7 for 21 yds
Receiving Wayshawn Parker 5 for 65 yds, 1 TD; Creed Whittemore 3 for 44 yds
Iowa State leaders
Passing Jaylen Raynor 21 of 40, 205 yds, 1 TD, 2 INT
Rushing Aiden Flora 13 for 54 yds; Jaylen Raynor 10 for 27 yds, 1 TD
Receiving Omari Hayes 5 for 55 yds; Aiden Flora 5 for 53 yds
No rain, gusts to 25 mph
64° at kickoff · no rain recorded · wind 12 mph from the southeast, mostly at an angle to the field, gusts to 25
A 25 mph gust is stronger than the peak gust in 87% of games since 2018.
Each gray tick is one game. The black line is the typical game.
no rain · wind 14 mph from the southeast, mostly at an angle to the field, gusts to 25 · 64°
Flora 3-yd run
Jump to
Where this weather comes fromMeasured at Ames airport, 1.9 miles away. Rain is NOAA's radar-and-gauge estimate at the stadium and wind is an airport reading; neither is measured on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet; rain radar from NOAA MRMS, through Iowa State University. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.
Before kickoff
Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.
Recent games
Last three games
Utah · 3-0
Rated 25th in our preseason ratings, 25th now.
Three straight wins — but still hunting a ranked opponent.
Utah is rated 9.5 points ahead as of week 3. Our power rating by week; higher is better.
Matchups
Biggest mismatch: Iowa State’s success rate against Utah, 79 points
Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.
Iowa State’s success rate against Utah’s defense
Iowa State offense, 14th percentile · Utah defense, 93rd
Iowa State’s explosive plays against Utah’s defense
Iowa State offense, 72nd percentile · Utah defense, 13th
Utah’s rushing EPA against Iowa State’s defense
Utah offense, 92nd percentile · Iowa State defense, 40th
Season profile, all the rows
Season profile
UtahIowa State
EPA/play, offense
EPA/play, defense
Success rate, offense
Success rate, defense
Explosive-play rate, offense
Explosive-play rate, defense
Rush EPA, offense
Rush EPA, defense
Pass EPA, offense
Pass EPA, defense
The series
Iowa State leads the series 5-1
6 meetings since 1970 · Iowa State won the last meeting
2024Iowa State 31-28
2010Utah 68-27
1976Iowa State 44-14
1975Iowa State 31-3
1972Iowa State 44-22
Each line is Iowa State’s chance to win through that meeting. Older meetings have no play by play, so no line.
Line, fans and home field
The betting line, and the fans
Utah fans are feeling it more than most fanbases this week (68th among FBS fanbases), in line with the numbers.
Utah favored by 7.5 · Total 46.5
How games like this usually go
Utah by 7.5, and it went to form
Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game
The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 385 games since 2025 with a favorite of 7.5 to 14.5 points.
The market
The spread moved 4 points toward Iowa State.
The total fell 3 points.
Spread: +11.5 → +7.5 · Total: 49.5 → 46.5
The books’ cut: 4.2%, the margin built into the odds
Weather at kickoff
Mild and dry. Feels like 64° at kickoff.
Utah at Iowa State · Saturday, Sept. 26, 2026 · Jack Trice Stadium, Ames
64°feels like at kickoff
Dryno rain at kickoff
97weather score, Comfortable
Tiedfor the roughest of the day's 7 kickoff times
At kickoff, Sept. 26, 2026.
Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50.
Kickoff times that Saturday
Games in this time zone used 7 kickoff times that day, local time (kickoffs within 30 minutes of each other count as one). This game, ringed, was tied for the roughest of the day's seven kickoff times. At Jack Trice Stadium that day, a 11 am, 5 pm, 6 pm, 7 pm or 8 pm kickoff would have scored 100, against 97 at 2:30 pm.
The roughest kickoff time is the lowest of the day's times. It can still be Mixed or Comfortable.
Iowa State is worth +3.9 points (±3.5) more at home than on the road since 2018 — middle of FBS, 47th percentile.
65% at home, 50% on the road against FBS opponents (32-17 home, 21-21 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +1.2 at home vs. away over 99 games — inside the ±5.6 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
Utah 31-17 Iowa State
Utah wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.