California 25-20 Virginia Tech (Oct 10, 2026) Final Score

Team pages: Virginia Tech · California

Virginia Tech4-220

California3-325Final

Sat, Oct 10 · California Memorial Stadium, Berkeley, Calif. · Crowd 40,170

California beat Virginia Tech 25-20 as an 11.5-point underdog, after its win chance fell to 8%.

Winners have been down to 8% or less in about 1 of every 14 games since 2018.

We had Virginia Tech favored. California won.

Next: Virginia Tech beat Georgia Tech 34-24, Sat Oct 17

Next: California lost to Wake Forest 41-7, Sat Oct 17

Top comment in the game thread

I mean, that was DEFINITELY PI on the last play, but whatever

Q4 0:18 · r/CFB game thread · Sat, Oct 10

How it swung

The turning point: Emory 2-yd TD run, two-point try fails, California goes ahead 25-20 (Q4, 0:18). California went from 29% to 100% to win. Fans right then: “I mean, that was DEFINITELY PI on the last play, but whatever” r/CFB game thread

Before kickoff, our ratings gave California a 28% chance, and the closing betting line (California was a 11.5-point underdog) put it at 18%.

FinalCalifornia 25-20 Virginia TechCalifornia wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.

The five plays that swung it

1Q2 5:54Emory 5-yd TD run, ties it 7-7California 9% → 33% (+24)
2Q4 1:15Grunkemeyer 1-yd TD run, two-point try fails, Virginia Tech goes ahead 20-19California 57% → 18% (−39)
3Q4 0:18Emory 2-yd TD run, two-point try fails, California goes ahead 25-20California 29% → 100% (+71)
4Q4 0:06Grunkemeyer 20-yd pass to JacksonCalifornia 82% → 42% (−40)
5Q4 0:06Grunkemeyer incomplete to ReynoldsCalifornia 42% → 100% (+58)

The five plays that swung it

1Q2 5:54Emory 5-yd TD run, ties it 7-7Virginia Tech 91% → 67% (−24)
2Q4 1:15Grunkemeyer 1-yd TD run, two-point try fails, Virginia Tech goes ahead 20-19Virginia Tech 43% → 82% (+39)
3Q4 0:18Emory 2-yd TD run, two-point try fails, California goes ahead 25-20Virginia Tech 71% → 0% (−71)
4Q4 0:06Grunkemeyer 20-yd pass to JacksonVirginia Tech 18% → 58% (+40)
5Q4 0:06Grunkemeyer incomplete to ReynoldsVirginia Tech 58% → 0% (−58)

What fans said, play by play

The line in bold above each quote is written by our model from the thread’s comments and the play-by-play.

Q4 14:50Officials rule targeting on Virginia Tech's tackle of Cal's BrownFull speed it looked fine but on replay that's clear targeted, dangr/CFB game threadLiterally the fastest targeting confirm of all time wowr/CFB game thread
Q4 13:42A player was called for targeting after lowering his helmet to make contact with an opponent's helmet.Yeah it looked like he intentionally headutted him lolr/CFB game thread
Q4 11:13Virginia Tech fans believe John Love has the yips after missing a field goalLove has genuinely lost his career because he barely missed that Pitt FG... Was gonna get drafted and now he's 0/2 today. Can't have a kicker that far in his own head. Nor should…r/CFB game thread
Q4 0:42Virginia Tech fans rage over controversial penalty calls on Brousseau's driveJesús Christ have the refs just decided this year they have to screw Virginia Tech???r/CFB game threadand if you don't like the refs deciding close games with terrible penalty calls, then you just don't like ACC football babyr/CFB game thread
Q4 0:18Virginia Tech fans decry no pass interference call on Grunkemeyer pass to ReynoldsUnreal no call. Then the defender has the guts to stand over Reynolds like that.r/CFB game threadQuoted at the top of the page.

California’s chance to win after every play.

How to read this chart

Starts from the pregame line (Virginia Tech -11.5), at 28% for California (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. Under the scores, r/CFB comments per minute from fans with a California or Virginia Tech flair (426 and 1,180); both sides share one scale, regulation only. A gold diamond marks a play fans were reacting to.

Watch the plays

The bar and the arrow show California’s chance to win after each play; the logo is the team the play helped.

Every drive

California scored on 5 of its 11 drives; Virginia Tech on 3 of its 11.

California’s drives are teal, Virginia Tech’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.

From Virginia Tech’s side

Virginia Tech’s best moment: Grunkemeyer 1-yd TD run, two-point try fails, Virginia Tech goes ahead 20-19 (Q4 1:15). It lifted Virginia Tech’s win chance by 39 points.

How Virginia Tech fans took it: “I mean, that was DEFINITELY PI on the last play, but whatever” r/CFB game thread

“Just saying … there is still 18 second, and we are Cal. Crazier things have happened. Look up StanfurD’s revenge game.”

A California fan

When fans got loud

Busy

The final stretch is when fans got loud.

Jump to the loudest stretch

The jump was busy; the crowd was busy.

Two crowds, one game

The words each side’s fans used far more than the other side, from the game thread.

California fans

somerville“We’d be a decent team had we started the year with McCann instead of Somerville. This is one week of practice and so much backup personelle.”

though“i think she's playing a blood drop. she is a bit pale though, which might suggest anemia (or maybe vampirism)”

Both sets of fans kept coming back to: refs, call, field, now.

The winner fell to 8%.

What it cost

Virginia Tech’s chance to make the playoff fell from 2% to 1%.

Make the playoff

Virginia Tech · lost2% → ▼1%

California · won1% → 1%

Win the conference

Virginia Tech · lost2% → ▼1%

California · won1% → 1%

Before the game (October 9, 2026) → after this result, in our model.

Box score

California 25, Virginia Tech 20

California covered +11.5 by 16.5. The total, 45, stayed under 51.5.

Team totals	Virginia Tech	California
Total yards	401	403
Passing	21 of 31, 288 yds	29 of 43, 321 yds
Rushing	32 for 113 yds	26 for 82 yds
First downs	25	24
Third down	4 of 11	8 of 16
Fourth down	0 of 0	1 of 1
Turnovers	0	0
Penalties	7 for 88 yds	10 for 99 yds
Time of possession	29:43	30:17

Virginia Tech leaders

Passing Ethan Grunkemeyer 21 of 31, 288 yds, 1 TD
Rushing Jeffrey Overton Jr. 12 for 73 yds; Marcellous Hawkins 12 for 45 yds, 1 TD
Receiving Que'Sean Brown 7 for 63 yds; Ayden Greene 2 for 62 yds, 1 TD

California leaders

Passing Jackson Brousseau 29 of 43, 321 yds, 1 TD
Rushing Ashten Emory 19 for 46 yds, 2 TD; Dorian Thomas 1 for 29 yds
Receiving Ian Strong 5 for 97 yds; Chase Hendricks 7 for 94 yds

No rain and calm

64° at kickoff · no rain recorded · wind 14 mph from the west-southwest, mostly across the field, gusts to 23

October game-day temperatures at California Memorial Stadium

Drag along the chart, or step through the game.

Fourth quarter, 0:18 left3:55 p.m.

Virginia Tech 20, California 25 · California 100% to win

no rain · wind 13 mph from the west-southwest, mostly across the field · 64°

Emory 2-yd TD run, two-point try fails, California goes ahead 25-20

Measured at Oakland airport, 11 miles away. Wind and rain are airport readings near the stadium, not on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.

Before kickoff

Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.

Recent games

Last three games

Virginia Tech · 4-1

Rated 51st in our preseason ratings, 46th now.

2-1 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.

L 33-35 vs PittsburghTop 25 #37 of 668

lost by 2 as a 1.5-point favorite

W 21-14 @ Boston College #138 of 668

won by 7 as a 14.5-point favorite

W 35-26 @ Maryland #61 of 668

won by 9 as a 2.5-point favorite

W 44-21 vs Old Dominion #68 of 668

won by 23 as a 17.5-point favorite

W 73-3 vs VMI #266 of 668

won by 70 as a 54.5-point favorite

Last three games

California · 2-3

Rated 63rd in our preseason ratings, 91st now, down 28 spots.

1-2 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.

L 31-39 @ UNLV #79 of 668

lost by 8 as a 1.5-point underdog

L 10-24 vs ClemsonTop 25 #27 of 668

lost by 14 as a 2.5-point underdog

W 49-7 vs Wagner #258 of 668

won by 42 as a 58.5-point favorite

W 21-18 @ Syracuse #127 of 668

won by 3 as a 4-point underdog

L 24-45 vs UCLATop 25 #59 of 668

lost by 21 as a 2.5-point underdog

Week by week

California

Wk 1Lvs UCLA24-45
Wk 2Wat Syracuse21-18
Wk 3Wvs Wagner49-7
Wk 4Lvs Clemson10-24
Wk 5Lat UNLV31-39

Virginia Tech

Wk 1Wvs VMI73-3
Wk 2Wvs Old Dominion44-21
Wk 3Wat Maryland35-26
Wk 4Wat Boston College21-14
Wk 5Lvs Pittsburgh33-35

Power rating by week

Virginia Tech is rated 4.7 points ahead as of week 5. Our power rating by week; higher is better.

Matchups

Biggest mismatch: Virginia Tech’s explosive plays against California, 71 points

Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.

Virginia Tech’s explosive plays against California’s defense
Virginia Tech offense, 74th percentile · California defense, 3rd
California’s rushing EPA against Virginia Tech’s defense
California offense, 11th percentile · Virginia Tech defense, 82nd
California’s success rate against Virginia Tech’s defense
California offense, 16th percentile · Virginia Tech defense, 83rd

Season profile, all the rows

Season profile

Virginia TechCalifornia

EPA/play, offense

EPA/play, defense

Success rate, offense

Success rate, defense

Explosive-play rate, offense

Explosive-play rate, defense

Rush EPA, offense

Rush EPA, defense

Pass EPA, offense

Pass EPA, defense

The series

The series is tied 1-1

2 meetings since 2003 · Virginia Tech won the last meeting

2025Virginia Tech 42-34
2003 · neutral siteCalifornia 52-49

Each line is California’s chance to win through that meeting. California is 1-1 in the meetings since 2018 that were still close in the fourth quarter. Older meetings have no play by play, so no line.

Line, fans and home field

The betting line, and the fans

California fans are in a better mood than Virginia Tech fans (53rd vs 12th among FBS fanbases), even with Virginia Tech favored.

Virginia Tech favored by 11.5 · Total 51.5

How games like this usually go

Virginia Tech by 11.5, on the usual path until 0:23 left in the fourth

Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game

The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 385 games since 2025 with a favorite of 7.5 to 14.5 points.

The market

The spread moved 2 points toward Virginia Tech.

The total fell 2 points.

The books’ cut: 4.2%, the margin built into the odds

Home field

California is worth +1.6 points (±3.4) more at home than on the road since 2018 — bottom third of FBS, 10th percentile.

49% at home, 39% on the road against FBS opponents (22-23 home, 17-27 away).

Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads -3.4 at home vs. away over 96 games — inside the ±6.2 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.

The visitors travel about 2,273 miles to get here.

Last meeting in our History pages

Virginia Tech 42, California 34Oct 24, 2025

Where next

Conference standings

Place in the conference, then conference record.

California10th1-1
Virginia Tech9th1-1

Full ACC standings

California upsets Virginia Tech 25-20