No. 12 Utah beats Kansas 41-24

Kansas2-324
No. 12 Utah5-041Final
Sat, Oct 10 · Rice-Eccles Stadium, Salt Lake City, Utah · Crowd 51,467ESPN

No. 12 Utah beat Kansas 41-24.

We had Utah favored. It won.

Top comment in the game thread

4 plays in a row without a flag .... incredible

Q4 5:25 · r/CFB game thread · Sat, Oct 10

How it swung

Before kickoff, our ratings gave Utah an 82% chance, and the closing betting line (Utah was a 15.5-point favorite) put it at 89%.

Favored the whole way: Utah never fell below 85%.

Kansas never had better than a 15% chance.

90-yard TD runUtah · Q4 7:13
FinalUtah 41-24 KansasUtah wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.At the airport: gusts to 44 mph
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50%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q488% at halfUtahWon41-24ScoresUtahKansasUtah fans: 5 comments a minuteUtah fans: 8 comments a minuteUtah fans: 1 comments a minuteUtah fans: 3 comments a minuteUtah fans: 1 comments a minuteUtah fans: 5 comments a minuteUtah fans: 7 comments a minuteUtah fans: 7 comments a minuteUtah fans: 6 comments a minuteUtah fans: 10 comments a minuteUtah fans: 6 comments a minuteUtah fans: 6 comments a minuteUtah fans: 5 comments a minuteUtah fans: 4 comments a minuteUtah fans: 6 comments a minuteUtah fans: 5 comments a minuteUtah fans: 3 comments a minuteUtah fans: 4 comments a minuteUtah fans: 7 comments a minuteUtah fans: 9 comments a minuteUtah fans: 6 comments a minuteUtah fans: 9 comments a minuteUtah fans: 12 comments a minuteUtah fans: 5 comments a minuteUtah fans: 5 comments a minuteUtah fans: 4 comments a minuteUtah fans: 12 comments a minuteUtah fans: 7 comments a minuteUtah fans: 8 comments a minuteUtah fans: 12 comments a minuteUtah fans: 2 comments a minuteUtah fans: 5 comments a minuteUtah fans: 11 comments a minuteUtah fans: 6 comments a minuteUtah fans: 5 comments a minuteUtah fans: 6 comments a minuteUtah fans: 4 comments a minuteUtah fans: 6 comments a minuteUtah fans: 7 comments a minuteUtah fans: 7 comments a minuteUtah fans: 8 comments a minuteUtah fans: 7 comments a minuteUtah fans: 3 comments a minuteUtah fans: 4 comments a minuteUtah fans: 7 comments a minuteUtah fans: 6 comments a minuteUtah fans: 9 comments a minuteUtah fans: 11 comments a minuteUtah fans: 10 comments a minuteUtah fans: 20 comments a minuteUtah fans: 27 comments a minuteUtah fans: 18 comments a minuteUtah fans: 21 comments a minuteUtah fans: 20 comments a minuteUtah fans: 19 comments a minuteUtah fans: 9 comments a minuteUtah fans: 12 comments a minuteUtah fans: 11 comments a minuteUtah fans: 10 comments a minuteKansas fans: 0 comments a minuteKansas fans: 1 comments a minuteKansas fans: 0 comments a minuteKansas fans: 1 comments a minuteKansas fans: 0 comments a minuteKansas fans: 1 comments a minuteKansas fans: 0 comments a minuteKansas fans: 2 comments a minuteKansas fans: 3 comments a minuteKansas fans: 4 comments a minuteKansas fans: 4 comments a minuteKansas fans: 3 comments a minuteKansas fans: 2 comments a minuteKansas fans: 0 comments a minuteKansas fans: 4 comments a minuteKansas fans: 3 comments a minuteKansas fans: 2 comments a minuteKansas fans: 2 comments a minuteKansas fans: 4 comments a minuteKansas fans: 8 comments a minuteKansas fans: 3 comments a minuteKansas fans: 5 comments a minuteKansas fans: 5 comments a minuteKansas fans: 3 comments a minuteKansas fans: 4 comments a minuteKansas fans: 4 comments a minuteKansas fans: 6 comments a minuteKansas fans: 4 comments a minuteKansas fans: 4 comments a minuteKansas fans: 6 comments a minuteKansas fans: 1 comments a minuteKansas fans: 3 comments a minuteKansas fans: 4 comments a minuteKansas fans: 2 comments a minuteKansas fans: 3 comments a minuteKansas fans: 1 comments a minuteKansas fans: 0 comments a minuteKansas fans: 3 comments a minuteKansas fans: 2 comments a minuteKansas fans: 2 comments a minuteKansas fans: 4 comments a minuteKansas fans: 2 comments a minuteKansas fans: 2 comments a minuteKansas fans: 6 comments a minuteKansas fans: 2 comments a minuteKansas fans: 2 comments a minuteKansas fans: 3 comments a minuteKansas fans: 3 comments a minuteKansas fans: 2 comments a minuteKansas fans: 3 comments a minuteKansas fans: 2 comments a minuteKansas fans: 6 comments a minuteKansas fans: 5 comments a minuteKansas fans: 2 comments a minuteKansas fans: 5 comments a minuteKansas fans: 3 comments a minuteKansas fans: 1 comments a minuteKansas fans: 2 comments a minuteKansas fans: 2 comments a minute44 mph gust, the peakGusts
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No single play moved the chance by 20 points.

No single play moved the chance by 20 points.

What fans said, play by play

The line in bold above each quote is written by our model from the thread’s comments and the play-by-play.

  1. Q2 0:34Utah fans panic as Dampier throws interception to Todd with 34 seconds leftDampier setting up the pick 6.r/CFB game thread
  2. Q4 10:45Dampier 1-yd TD pass to Taulanga, Utah leads 34-24Fat guy TD. I can't even be madr/CFB game thread
  3. Q4 8:49Officials overturn touchdown call on Marshall pass to Bruhn, sparking fan outrageToo bad the ref wasn't in a perfect spot to see that play liver/CFB game threadCool ESPN app thinks we want to watch a (replay?) of a breakdancing competition.r/CFB game thread
  4. Q4 7:13Utah fans curse ESPN for switching feeds as Parker scores 90-yard touchdownParker trying to make up for the whole game in one play lolr/CFB game thread
  5. Q4 6:41Utah fans rage as Kansas completes two big passes, gashing the defenseKeep the pressure on boys.......r/CFB game threadNebraska with 415 consecutive sell outs? What a bunch of sadistsr/CFB game thread
  6. Q4 5:25Utah fans mock Kansas for missing a wide open touchdown passThis game somehow has been closer and not as close as the score indicates.r/CFB game threadQuoted at the top of the page.
Utah’s chance to win after every play.
How to read this chartStarts from the pregame line (Utah -15.5), at 90% for Utah (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. Outlined diamonds mark rare plays. Under the scores, r/CFB comments per minute from fans with a Utah or Kansas flair (1,858 and 680); both sides share one scale, regulation only. A gold diamond marks a play fans were reacting to.
The blue strip under the chart is the weather at the airport. A 44 mph gust is stronger than the peak gust in 99% of games since 2018. Measured at Salt Lake City International airport, 6.5 miles away. Full conditions below.

Watch the plays

The bar and the arrow show Utah’s chance to win after each play; the logo is the team the play helped.

  1. Q1, 9:21Parker 5-yd TD runUtah goes ahead 7-0Q1, 9:21 · Utah 7, Kansas 0▲3%Utah’s chance to win, 92% to 95%▲3%Utah’s chance to win, 92% to 95%Watch from this playESPN College Football
  2. Q1, 6:19Dampier 12-yd TD runUtah leads 14-0Q1, 6:19 · Utah 14, Kansas 0▲2%Utah’s chance to win, 96% to 98%▲2%Utah’s chance to win, 96% to 98%Watch from this playESPN College Football
  3. Q1, 5:30Marshall intercepted by Chenault at the Kansas 36Q1, 5:30 · Utah 14, Kansas 014-0score after the play14-0score after the playWatch from this playESPN College Football
  4. Q1, 4:12Dampier sacked for a 8-yd lossQ1, 4:12 · Utah 14, Kansas 014-0score after the play14-0score after the playWatch from this playESPN College Football
  5. Q2, 14:09Marshall 3-yd TD pass to Edwardscuts it to 14-7Q2, 14:09 · Utah 14, Kansas 7▼2%Utah’s chance to win, 96% to 94%▼2%Utah’s chance to win, 96% to 94%Watch from this playESPN College Football
  6. Q2, 10:16Dampier 6-yd TD pass to BenneeUtah leads 21-7Q2, 10:16 · Utah 21, Kansas 7▲2%Utah’s chance to win, 95% to 97%▲2%Utah’s chance to win, 95% to 97%Watch from this playESPN College Football
  7. Q2, 1:09Dampier sacked for a 1-yd lossturnover on downsQ2, 1:09 · Utah 21, Kansas 721-7score after the play21-7score after the playWatch from this playESPN College Football
  8. Q2, 0:42Marshall 6-yd TD runcuts it to 21-14Q2, 0:42 · Utah 21, Kansas 14▼3%Utah’s chance to win, 97% to 94%▼3%Utah’s chance to win, 97% to 94%Watch from this playESPN College Football
  9. Q2, 0:34Dampier intercepted by Todd at the Kansas 36Q2, 0:34 · Utah 21, Kansas 14▼4%Utah’s chance to win, 94% to 90%▼4%Utah’s chance to win, 94% to 90%Watch from this playESPN College Football
  10. Q3, 5:13Dampier 2-yd TD pass to Johnson, blockedUtah leads 27-17Q3, 5:13 · Utah 27, Kansas 17▲4%Utah’s chance to win, 92% to 96%▲4%Utah’s chance to win, 92% to 96%Watch from this playESPN College Football
  11. Q3, 0:27Marshall 29-yd TD pass to McMillancuts it to 27-24Q3, 0:27 · Utah 27, Kansas 24▼8%Utah’s chance to win, 94% to 86%▼8%Utah’s chance to win, 94% to 86%Watch from this playESPN College Football
  12. Q4, 10:45Dampier 1-yd TD pass to TaulangaUtah leads 34-24Q4, 10:45 · Utah 34, Kansas 24▲7%Utah’s chance to win, 89% to 96%▲7%Utah’s chance to win, 89% to 96%Watch from this playESPN College Football
  13. Q4, 7:13Parker 90-yd TD runUtah leads 41-24Q4, 7:13 · Utah 41, Kansas 24▲3%Utah’s chance to win, 97% to 100%▲3%Utah’s chance to win, 97% to 100%Watch from this playESPN College Football

Every drive

Utah scored on 6 of its 12 drives; Kansas on 4 of its 12.

Utah’s drives are teal, Kansas’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.

own goalgoal lineQ1Utah: Touchdown, from 75 yards out to 0TouchdownKansas: Punt, from 75 yards out to 77PuntUtah: Touchdown, from 66 yards out to 0TouchdownKansas: Interception, from 75 yards out to 74InterceptionUtah: Punt, from 36 yards out to 43PuntKansas: Punt, from 93 yards out to 76PuntUtah: Fumble, from 75 yards out to 83FumbleKansas: Touchdown, from 7 yards out to 0TouchdownQ2Utah: Touchdown, from 75 yards out to 0TouchdownKansas: Punt, from 75 yards out to 68PuntUtah: Punt, from 73 yards out to 57PuntKansas: Punt, from 84 yards out to 79PuntUtah: Turned over on downs, from 86 yards out to 34DownsKansas: Touchdown, from 66 yards out to 0TouchdownUtah: Interception, from 75 yards out to 75InterceptionKansas: Field goal, from 64 yards out to 16Field goalQ3Kansas: Punt, from 75 yards out to 48PuntUtah: Touchdown, from 82 yards out to 0TouchdownKansas: Touchdown, from 75 yards out to 0TouchdownUtah: Touchdown, from 75 yards out to 0TouchdownQ4Kansas: Turned over on downs, from 75 yards out to 1DownsUtah: Touchdown, from 99 yards out to 0TouchdownKansas: Turned over on downs, from 75 yards out to 7DownsUtah: Uncategorized, from 93 yards out to 43Uncategorized
“That was basically a 14 swing in 30 seconds.”
A Utah fan

How fans reacted

Steady

Fans peaked in the fourth quarter.

Jump to the loudest stretch

The jump was steady; the crowd was busy.

FirstSecondThirdFourthUtah fansKansas fansusual

Two crowds, one game

The words each side’s fans used far more than the other side, from the game thread.

Utah fans

parker“Use Wayshawn Parker to win. Not sure why KU didn't use a Wayshawn Parker.”

Kansas fans

marshall“I mean at some point you have to sit Marshall, right? He cannot complete a pass beyond a first read 5-yd route.”

underthrown“The good ol underthrown PI lol. Technically correct and hated by everyone”

forward“Looks backward but watch the marker he throws it from. Other guy catches it about a yard forward bc his momentum”

genuinely“I hate this team genuinely. And I'm still gonna watch every game because I'm a masochist”

Both sets of fans kept coming back to: refs, call, every, now.

What it cost

Utah’s chance to make the playoff rose from 23% to 26%.

Make the playoff

Kansas · lost0% → 0%
Utah · won23% → ▲26%23%▲ 26%

Win the conference

Kansas · lost0% → 0%
Utah · won19% → ▲21%19%▲ 21%

Before the game (October 9, 2026) → after this result, in our model.

Box score

Utah 41, Kansas 24

Utah covered −15.5 by 1.5. The total, 65, went over 49.5.

KansasUtahTotal yardsKansas 391Utah 545391545Passing yardsKansas 333Utah 258333258Rushing yardsKansas 58Utah 28758287First downsKansas 19Utah 311931TurnoversKansas 1Utah 212Time of possessionKansas 20:56Utah 39:0420:5639:04
Team totalsKansasUtah
Total yards391545
Passing19 of 37, 333 yds24 of 31, 258 yds
Rushing21 for 58 yds47 for 287 yds
First downs1931
Third down4 of 137 of 12
Fourth down1 of 31 of 2
Turnovers12
Penalties10 for 90 yds10 for 94 yds
Time of possession20:5639:04

Kansas leaders

  • Passing Isaiah Marshall 19 of 37, 333 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT
  • Rushing Dylan Edwards 9 for 22 yds; Isaiah Marshall 9 for 21 yds, 1 TD
  • Receiving Cam Pickett 8 for 134 yds; Nik McMillan 4 for 89 yds, 1 TD

Utah leaders

  • Passing Devon Dampier 23 of 30, 238 yds, 3 TD, 1 INT
  • Rushing Wayshawn Parker 16 for 171 yds, 2 TD; Devon Dampier 17 for 71 yds, 1 TD
  • Receiving Ricky Johnson 5 for 104 yds, 1 TD; Braden Pegan 7 for 72 yds

Wind all game, gusting to 44 mph at the airport

71° at kickoff · no rain recorded · wind 22 mph from the south-southeast, mostly along the field, gusts to 44

A 44 mph gust is stronger than the peak gust in 99% of games since 2018.

Every game's peak, with this game markedtypical game 16 mphThis game: 44 mph060 mph
Every game's peak, with this game markedtypical game 16 mphThis game: 44 mph060 mph

Each gray tick is one game. The black line is the typical game.

The usual here around this date is 59°, with about 7 in 10 games between 45° and 71°.

October game-day temperatures at Rice-Eccles Stadium

Win chance with rain, wind and thunder from the nearest airport, by game timeQ1Q2Q3Q4Utah favoredKansas favored100%Win chanceUtahRaininches per 10 min0.1 inNo rain recordedWindmph, average and gusts20 mph40 mph44 mph gustThunder reported
Win chance with rain, wind and thunder from the nearest airport, by game timeQ1Q2Q3Q4Utah favoredKansas favoredRain · inches per 10 min0.1 inNo rain recordedWind · miles per hour204044 mph gustThunder reported

Drag along the chart, or step through the game.

Third quarter, 5:00 left8:38 p.m.
Kansas 17, Utah 27 · Utah 95% to win
no rain · wind 27 mph from the south, mostly along the field, gusts to 44 · 73°
Marshall 25-yd pass to Pickett

Jump to

Where this weather comes fromMeasured at Salt Lake City International airport, 6.5 miles away. The paler thunder bar is thunder reported in the vicinity of an airport. Wind and rain are airport readings near the stadium, not on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.

Before kickoff

Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.

Recent games

Last 4 games

Kansas · 2-2

Rated 87th in our preseason ratings, 61st now, up 26 spots.

2-2 in its last 4 — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.

Last 4 games

Utah · 4-0

Rated 25th in our preseason ratings, 18th now.

4 straight wins — but still hunting a ranked opponent.

Week by week

Utah

Wk 1: W 66-14 vs Idaho▲52IdahoWk 2: W 43-10 vs Arkansas▲33ArkansasWk 3: W 33-0 vs Utah State▲33Utah StateWk 4: W 31-17 at Iowa State▲14Iowa State
  • Wk 1Wvs Idaho66-14
  • Wk 2Wvs Arkansas43-10
  • Wk 3Wvs Utah State33-0
  • Wk 4Wat Iowa State31-17

Kansas

Wk 1: W 51-6 vs Long Island University▲45Long Island…Wk 2: L 21-38 vs Missouri▼17MissouriWk 3: L 17-24 vs Arizona State▼7Arizona St.Wk 5: W 55-0 vs Middle Tennessee▲55M. Tennessee
  • Wk 1Wvs Long Island University51-6
  • Wk 2Lvs Missouri21-38
  • Wk 3Lvs Arizona State17-24
  • Wk 5Wvs Middle Tennessee55-0

Power rating by week

Utah is rated 6.1 points ahead as of week 5. Our power rating by week; higher is better.

93-3Wk 0Wk 3Wk 5UtahKansas

Matchups

Biggest mismatch: Kansas’s explosive plays against Utah, 82 points

Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.

  1. Kansas’s explosive plays against Utah’s defense

    82 pointsweakerstronger50th

    Kansas offense, 95th percentile · Utah defense, 13th

  2. Kansas’s success rate against Utah’s defense

    31 pointsweakerstronger50th

    Kansas offense, 62nd percentile · Utah defense, 93rd

  3. Kansas’s passing EPA against Utah’s defense

    22 pointsweakerstronger50th

    Kansas offense, 57th percentile · Utah defense, 79th

Season profile, all the rows

Season profile

KansasUtah
EPA/play, offense
Kansas · 64Utah · 85
EPA/play, defense
Kansas · 83Utah · 79
Success rate, offense
Kansas · 62Utah · 89
Success rate, defense
Kansas · 84Utah · 93
Explosive-play rate, offense
Kansas · 95Utah · 71
Explosive-play rate, defense
Kansas · 27Utah · 13
Rush EPA, offense
Kansas · 68Utah · 92
Rush EPA, defense
Kansas · 87Utah · 80
Pass EPA, offense
Kansas · 57Utah · 71
Pass EPA, defense
Kansas · 50Utah · 79

The series

Utah leads the series 3-2

5 meetings since 1950 · Utah has won the last 3

  • 2025Utah 31-21Utah won 31-21 at Kansas. Chance to win started at 70%, low 30%, high better than 99%.
  • 1996Utah 45-42
  • 1993Utah 41-16
  • 1951Kansas 26-7
  • 1950Kansas 39-26

Each line is Utah’s chance to win through that meeting. Older meetings have no play by play, so no line.

Line, fans and home field

The betting line, and the fans

Kansas fans are in a better mood than Utah fans (48th vs 38th among FBS fanbases), even with Utah favored.

50-50Model 82% · Line 89%Utah fans · 38thKansas fans · 48thKansasUtah

Utah favored by 15.5 · Total 49.5

How games like this usually go

Utah by 15.5, and it went to form

50%90%Q1Q2Q3Q450%90%Q1Q2Q3Q4

Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game

The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 251 games since 2025 with a favorite of 14.5 to 21.5 points.

The market

The total fell 2 points.

opened 51.5now 49.5

Total: 51.5 → 49.5

The books’ cut: 4.2%, the margin built into the odds

Home field

Utah is worth +3.4 points (±3.8) more at home than on the road since 2018 — middle of FBS, 36th percentile.

81% at home, 61% on the road against FBS opponents (35-8 home, 27-17 away).

Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +2.1 at home vs. away over 95 games — inside the ±5.8 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.

Night kickoff — historically worth about half a point more to the home side against the number, and not much more than that. 4,631 ft of altitude — real, and smaller than the folklore: high venues run a point or two better against the number, noisily. The visitors travel about 888 miles to get here.

Where next

Conference standings

Place in the conference, then conference record.

Full Big 12 standings