Samford at Furman
Samford (1‑6) travels to Furman (2‑5), with Furman favored by 9.5. The model gives Furman a 78% shot.
How they got here
Last three games
Samford · 1-6
Rated 232nd in our preseason ratings, 235th now.
Three straight losses.
L 21-31 vs Mercer No. 135 of 668 teams
lost by 10 as a 15.5-point underdog
L 3-19 @ Chattanooga No. 156 of 668 teams
lost by 16 as an 11.5-point underdog
L 14-33 @ UAB No. 69 of 668 teams
lost by 19 as a 30.5-point underdog
W 45-7 vs VMI No. 263 of 668 teams
won by 38 as a 15.5-point favorite
L 19-45 @ Tennessee Tech No. 121 of 668 teams
lost by 26 as a 26.5-point underdog
L 18-22 vs Southern Illinois No. 147 of 668 teams
lost by 4 as a 20.5-point underdog
L 10-22 @ North Alabama No. 206 of 668 teams
lost by 12 as a 7-point underdog
Last three games
Furman · 2-5
Rated 202nd in our preseason ratings, 184th now, up 18 spots.
Three straight losses.
W 20-3 vs Anderson (SC) No. 372 of 668 teams
What’s at stake
Samford
- Samford is 3 games back in Southern with 3 left to make it up.
- A win would be one of Samford’s biggest of the season — a 51-spot gap in the power ratings.
Furman
- Furman is 3 games back in Southern with 4 left to make it up.
- Furman football is built on the pride of 1988—a national championship claimed by a private school that proved it could compete with anyone. The Paladins carry that legacy while chasing a return to the national stage from within the Southern Conference, where they remain one of the FCS's most consistent programs.
The series
The series is tied 12-12-1
25 meetings since 1961 · Furman won the last meeting
- 2025Furman 31-13
- 2024Tie 0-0
- 2023Furman 27-21
- 2022Samford 34-27
- 2021Furman 41-34
Face-off
What each fanbase carries into this one.
Samford
The chip · vs the blue bloodsSamford came within one game of the national championship in 1991 but has been chasing that level ever since. The 2022 title proved the Bulldogs can still win, but the national stage has eluded them for 35 years — and the room remembers.
What this game touches
The 1991 semifinal heartbreak. Samford went 12-2 in 1991 and reached the FCS semifinal, the deepest run in program history, before losing to Youngstown State. The Bulldogs have been chasing that level of national success ever since. A 2022 SoCon title provided recent vindication, but 35 years is a long drought from the national spotlight.
Furman
The chipThe FCS and the nation underestimate private Southern programs. Furman proved it in 1988. The Paladins want to prove it again.
What this game touches
Unable to replicate 1988 national championship; consecutive near-misses in 1985 and 2001 without a second title. Furman won the 1988 NCAA Division I-AA national championship under Jimmy Satterfield, defeating Georgia Southern 17–12. The Paladins have never won a second title, though they reached runner-up games in 1985 (lost to Georgia Southern) and 2001 (lost to Montana 13–6). The 2001 loss was particularly agonizing: the Paladins posted a 12–3 record and had knocked out Georgia Southern's 39-game home playoff win streak, only to fall short at the national final. Over 37 years since 1988, Furman has become a 'perennial almost'—consistent but never quite breaking through to another championship.
What to watch
The total has moved down 2.0 points since opening (45.5 → 43.5): books now expect fewer combined points.
The betting line, and the fans
Our model and the betting line agree on Furman’s chances here.
Furman favored by 9.5 · Total 43.5
Furman by 9.5: where a favorite like this usually runs
Half of games8 in 10 games
Furman’s chance through the game, if this goes like the 388 games since 2025 with a favorite of 7.5 to 14.5 points.
Home field
Home-field advantage: Bottom third of FBS.
0% at home, 10% on the road against FBS opponents (0-0 home, 1-9 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads -2.4 at home vs. away over 57 games — inside the ±7.7 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
The visitors travel about 269 miles to get here.
Week by week
Furman
- Wk 2Wat Mercer20-13
- Wk 3Lvs South Carolina State17-20
- Wk 4Lat Richmond9-13
- Wk 5Lvs Wofford25-32
- Wk 6Lat Tennessee Tech15-20
Samford
- Wk 2Lat Tennessee Tech19-45
- Wk 4Wvs VMI45-7
- Wk 5Lat UAB14-33
- Wk 6Lat Chattanooga3-19
- Wk 7Lvs Mercer21-31
Power rating by week
Furman is rated 3.0 points ahead as of week 8. Our power rating by week; higher is better.
The market
The total fell 2 points.
Total: 45.5 → 43.5
The books’ cut: 5.3%, the margin built into the odds