Auburn beats Vanderbilt 21-15

Vanderbilt3-115
Auburn3-121Final
Sat, Sep 26 · Jordan-Hare Stadium, Auburn, Ala. · Crowd 88,043SEC Network

Auburn beat Vanderbilt 21-15.

We had Vanderbilt favored. Auburn won.

Top comment in the game thread

I know why they do it, but I do find it weird that a player can be on the ground in agony and their head coach will just stand on the sideline with their arms crossed. It's such a…

Q2 9:39 · r/CFB game thread · Sat, Sep 26

How it swung

Before kickoff, our ratings gave Auburn a 46% chance, and the closing betting line (Auburn was a 10-point favorite) put it at 79%.

Favored the whole way: Auburn never fell below 72%.

Vanderbilt never had better than a 28% chance.

Punt return TDAuburn · Q2 8:56Blocked field goalQ2 0:55
FinalAuburn 21-15 VanderbiltAuburn wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.
50%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q494% at halfAuburnWon21-151+11ScoresBlocked field goalAuburnVanderbiltAuburn fans: 3 comments a minuteAuburn fans: 0 comments a minuteAuburn fans: 3 comments a minuteAuburn fans: 6 comments a minuteAuburn fans: 2 comments a minuteAuburn fans: 4 comments a minuteAuburn fans: 4 comments a minuteAuburn fans: 6 comments a minuteAuburn fans: 0 comments a minuteAuburn fans: 2 comments a minuteAuburn fans: 1 comments a minuteAuburn fans: 2 comments a minuteAuburn fans: 2 comments a minuteAuburn fans: 3 comments a minuteAuburn fans: 2 comments a minuteAuburn fans: 2 comments a minuteAuburn fans: 7 comments a minuteAuburn fans: 4 comments a minuteAuburn fans: 4 comments a minuteAuburn fans: 3 comments a minuteAuburn fans: 2 comments a minuteAuburn fans: 2 comments a minuteAuburn fans: 4 comments a minuteAuburn fans: 4 comments a minuteAuburn fans: 2 comments a minuteAuburn fans: 1 comments a minuteAuburn fans: 3 comments a minuteAuburn fans: 4 comments a minuteAuburn fans: 5 comments a minuteAuburn fans: 3 comments a minuteAuburn fans: 0 comments a minuteAuburn fans: 2 comments a minuteAuburn fans: 0 comments a minuteAuburn fans: 0 comments a minuteAuburn fans: 0 comments a minuteAuburn fans: 2 comments a minuteAuburn fans: 2 comments a minuteAuburn fans: 5 comments a minuteAuburn fans: 3 comments a minuteAuburn fans: 4 comments a minuteAuburn fans: 3 comments a minuteAuburn fans: 1 comments a minuteAuburn fans: 1 comments a minuteAuburn fans: 1 comments a minuteAuburn fans: 2 comments a minuteAuburn fans: 2 comments a minuteAuburn fans: 2 comments a minuteAuburn fans: 2 comments a minuteAuburn fans: 2 comments a minuteAuburn fans: 2 comments a minuteAuburn fans: 3 comments a minuteAuburn fans: 5 comments a minuteAuburn fans: 7 comments a minuteAuburn fans: 4 comments a minuteAuburn fans: 3 comments a minuteAuburn fans: 5 comments a minuteAuburn fans: 6 comments a minuteAuburn fans: 4 comments a minuteAuburn fans: 4 comments a minuteAuburn fans: 4 comments a minuteVanderbilt fans: 1 comments a minuteVanderbilt fans: 0 comments a minuteVanderbilt fans: 0 comments a minuteVanderbilt fans: 1 comments a minuteVanderbilt fans: 2 comments a minuteVanderbilt fans: 1 comments a minuteVanderbilt fans: 2 comments a minuteVanderbilt fans: 0 comments a minuteVanderbilt fans: 0 comments a minuteVanderbilt fans: 1 comments a minuteVanderbilt fans: 1 comments a minuteVanderbilt fans: 1 comments a minuteVanderbilt fans: 0 comments a minuteVanderbilt fans: 1 comments a minuteVanderbilt fans: 1 comments a minuteVanderbilt fans: 0 comments a minuteVanderbilt fans: 2 comments a minuteVanderbilt fans: 2 comments a minuteVanderbilt fans: 0 comments a minuteVanderbilt fans: 0 comments a minuteVanderbilt fans: 2 comments a minuteVanderbilt fans: 0 comments a minuteVanderbilt fans: 2 comments a minuteVanderbilt fans: 0 comments a minuteVanderbilt fans: 1 comments a minuteVanderbilt fans: 1 comments a minuteVanderbilt fans: 1 comments a minuteVanderbilt fans: 1 comments a minuteVanderbilt fans: 1 comments a minuteVanderbilt fans: 1 comments a minuteVanderbilt fans: 0 comments a minuteVanderbilt fans: 0 comments a minuteVanderbilt fans: 0 comments a minuteVanderbilt fans: 0 comments a minuteVanderbilt fans: 0 comments a minuteVanderbilt fans: 0 comments a minuteVanderbilt fans: 0 comments a minuteVanderbilt fans: 1 comments a minuteVanderbilt fans: 0 comments a minuteVanderbilt fans: 0 comments a minuteVanderbilt fans: 1 comments a minuteVanderbilt fans: 0 comments a minuteVanderbilt fans: 0 comments a minuteVanderbilt fans: 1 comments a minuteVanderbilt fans: 0 comments a minuteVanderbilt fans: 0 comments a minuteVanderbilt fans: 0 comments a minuteVanderbilt fans: 0 comments a minuteVanderbilt fans: 0 comments a minuteVanderbilt fans: 0 comments a minuteVanderbilt fans: 0 comments a minuteVanderbilt fans: 1 comments a minuteVanderbilt fans: 2 comments a minuteVanderbilt fans: 1 comments a minuteVanderbilt fans: 0 comments a minuteVanderbilt fans: 0 comments a minuteVanderbilt fans: 0 comments a minuteVanderbilt fans: 0 comments a minuteVanderbilt fans: 1 comments a minuteVanderbilt fans: 0 comments a minute
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The play that swung it

  1. 1Q2 8:56Special teamsPunt blocked and returned for a TD, Auburn leads 14-3Auburn 83% → 94% (+11)

The play that swung it

  1. 1Q2 8:56Special teamsPunt blocked and returned for a TD, Auburn leads 14-3Vanderbilt 17% → 6% (−11)

What fans said, play by play

The line in bold above each quote is written by our model from the thread’s comments and the play-by-play.

  1. Q1 11:28Auburn fans curse as Brown throws interception to Vanderbilt's CapersMILES CAPERS IS THE GOATr/CFB game thread
  2. Q2 14:55Auburn fans criticize the offense's disorganized three-and-out driveHow do you come out of a timeout that disorganized?r/CFB game threadI hate that our offense drives are either a speed run 3 and out or a 4 play td driver/CFB game thread
  3. Q2 9:39Quoted at the top of the page.Why is this the darkest broadcast of all time? Someone tell the truck they need to up the exposure!r/CFB game thread
  4. Q2 8:56Auburn blocked a punt and returned it for a touchdown.Thank God he picked that up and scored because that was about to be a field goalr/CFB game thread
  5. Q2 0:44Auburn fans demand benching Brown after sack and out-of-bounds frustrationDUDE! THROW IT OUT OF BOUNDS!r/CFB game thread
  6. Q4 8:35Officials overturn targeting call on J.Curtis pass to J.Sherrillat this point, does anyone anywhere have any idea what targeting is, isn't, or ought to be?r/CFB game threadI think rtp w/o targeting was correct therer/CFB game thread
Auburn’s chance to win after every play.
How to read this chartStarts from the pregame line (Auburn -10), at 82% for Auburn (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. Outlined diamonds mark rare plays. Under the scores, r/CFB comments per minute from fans with a Auburn or Vanderbilt flair (528 and 111); both sides share one scale, regulation only. A gold diamond marks a play fans were reacting to.

Watch the plays

The bar and the arrow show Auburn’s chance to win after each play; the logo is the team the play helped.

  1. Q1, 11:28Brown intercepted by Capers at the Auburn 24Q1, 11:28 · Auburn 0, Vanderbilt 0▼7%Auburn’s chance to win, 79% to 72%▼7%Auburn’s chance to win, 79% to 72%Watch from this playESPN College Football
  2. Q1, 7:25Brown 33-yd TD pass to NimrodAuburn goes ahead 7-3Q1, 7:25 · Auburn 7, Vanderbilt 3▲8%Auburn’s chance to win, 77% to 85%▲8%Auburn’s chance to win, 77% to 85%Watch from this playESPN College Football
  3. Q2, 8:56Punt blocked and returned for a TDAuburn leads 14-3Q2, 8:56 · Auburn 14, Vanderbilt 3▲11%Auburn’s chance to win, 83% to 94%▲11%Auburn’s chance to win, 83% to 94%Watch from this playESPN College Football
  4. Q2, 0:44Brown sacked for a 2-yd lossQ2, 0:44 · Auburn 14, Vanderbilt 314-3score after the play14-3score after the playWatch from this playESPN College Football
  5. Q2, 0:01Curtis intercepted by Smith-Reed at the Auburn 13Q2, 0:01 · Auburn 14, Vanderbilt 314-3score after the play14-3score after the playWatch from this playESPN College Football
  6. Q3, 7:07Alexander 3-yd TD runcuts it to 14-9Q3, 7:07 · Auburn 14, Vanderbilt 9▼8%Auburn’s chance to win, 92% to 84%▼8%Auburn’s chance to win, 92% to 84%Watch from this playESPN College Football
  7. Q3, 4:40Brown 2-yd TD runAuburn leads 21-9Q3, 4:40 · Auburn 21, Vanderbilt 9▲6%Auburn’s chance to win, 89% to 95%▲6%Auburn’s chance to win, 89% to 95%Watch from this playESPN College Football

Every drive

Auburn scored on 2 of its 10 drives; Vanderbilt on 4 of its 11.

Auburn’s drives are teal, Vanderbilt’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.

own goalgoal lineQ1Auburn: Punt, from 75 yards out to 74PuntVanderbilt: Punt, from 64 yards out to 58PuntAuburn: Interception, from 86 yards out to 84InterceptionVanderbilt: Field goal, from 23 yards out to 20Field goalAuburn: Touchdown, from 75 yards out to 0TouchdownVanderbilt: Punt, from 75 yards out to 68PuntAuburn: Punt, from 83 yards out to 60PuntVanderbilt: Turned over on downs, from 81 yards out to 54DownsQ2Auburn: Punt, from 46 yards out to 45PuntVanderbilt: Punt returned for a touchdown, from 90 yards out to 62Punt TDVanderbilt: Punt, from 75 yards out to 48PuntAuburn: Punt, from 88 yards out to 72PuntVanderbilt: Missed field goal, from 75 yards out to 30Missed FGAuburn: Missed field goal, from 70 yards out to 43Missed FGVanderbilt: Interception, from 57 yards out to 57InterceptionQ3Vanderbilt: Touchdown, from 75 yards out to 0TouchdownAuburn: Touchdown, from 75 yards out to 0TouchdownVanderbilt: Field goal, from 75 yards out to 29Field goalQ4Auburn: Punt, from 75 yards out to 58PuntVanderbilt: Field goal, from 78 yards out to 27Field goalAuburn: End of game, from 75 yards out to 30End of game
“Make the whole plane out of Omar”
An Auburn fan

How fans reacted

Steady

Fans saved their loudest stretch for the second quarter.

Jump to the loudest stretch

The jump was steady; the crowd was quiet.

FirstSecondThirdFourthAuburn fansVanderbilt fansusual

What it cost

Vanderbilt’s chance to make the playoff fell from 6% to 4%.

Make the playoff

Vanderbilt · lost6% → ▼4%6%▼ 4%
Auburn · won2% → ▲3%

Before the game (September 25, 2026) → after this result, in our model.

Box score

Auburn 21, Vanderbilt 15

Vanderbilt covered +10 by 4. The total, 36, stayed under 54.5.

VanderbiltAuburnTotal yardsVanderbilt 311Auburn 279311279Passing yardsVanderbilt 199Auburn 140199140Rushing yardsVanderbilt 112Auburn 139112139First downsVanderbilt 22Auburn 152215TurnoversVanderbilt 1Auburn 111Time of possessionVanderbilt 37:32Auburn 22:2837:3222:28
Team totalsVanderbiltAuburn
Total yards311279
Passing22 of 34, 199 yds18 of 27, 140 yds
Rushing41 for 112 yds31 for 139 yds
First downs2215
Third down4 of 177 of 15
Fourth down4 of 50 of 0
Turnovers11
Penalties8 for 43 yds5 for 44 yds
Time of possession37:3222:28

Vanderbilt leaders

  • Passing Jared Curtis 22 of 33, 199 yds, 1 INT
  • Rushing Makhilyn Young 10 for 46 yds; Jared Curtis 18 for 46 yds
  • Receiving Junior Sherrill 6 for 95 yds; Makhilyn Young 3 for 21 yds

Auburn leaders

  • Passing Byrum Brown 18 of 27, 140 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
  • Rushing Jeremiah Cobb 8 for 58 yds; Byrum Brown 10 for 57 yds, 1 TD
  • Receiving Chas Nimrod 5 for 52 yds, 1 TD; Keshaun Singleton 5 for 38 yds

No rain through the game

81° at kickoff · no rain recorded

September game-day temperatures at Jordan-Hare Stadium

Win chance with rain, wind and thunder from the nearest airport, by game timeQ1Q2Q3Q4Auburn favoredVanderbilt favored100%Win chanceAuburnRaininches per 10 min0.1 inNo rain recordedWindmph, average and gusts20 mph40 mphHourly wind only at this airport
Win chance with rain, wind and thunder from the nearest airport, by game timeQ1Q2Q3Q4Auburn favoredVanderbilt favoredRain · inches per 10 min0.1 inNo rain recordedWind · miles per hour2040Hourly wind only at this airport

Drag along the chart, or step through the game.

First quarter, 14:52 left3:21 p.m.
Vanderbilt 0, Auburn 0 · Auburn 82% to win
no rain · 81°
Cobb 1-yd run
Where this weather comes fromMeasured at Auburn-opelika Apt airport, 3.4 miles away. Rain is NOAA's radar-and-gauge estimate at the stadium and wind is an airport reading; neither is measured on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet; rain radar from NOAA MRMS, through Iowa State University. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.

Before kickoff

Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.

Recent games

Last three games

Vanderbilt · 3-0

Rated 45th in our preseason ratings, 42nd now.

Three straight wins, one over ranked or top-40 competition.

W 35-31 vs NC State #37 of 668

won by 4 as a 3-point favorite

Last three games

Auburn · 2-1

Rated 71st in our preseason ratings, 60th now, up 11 spots.

2-1 in its last three, one over ranked or top-40 competition.

Week by week

Auburn

Wk 1: W 17-16 vs Baylor▲1BaylorWk 2: W 43-8 vs Southern Miss▲35Southern MissWk 3: L 39-44 vs Florida▼5Florida
  • Wk 1Wvs Baylor17-16
  • Wk 2Wvs Southern Miss43-8
  • Wk 3Lvs Florida39-44

Vanderbilt

Wk 1: W 28-9 vs Austin Peay▲19Austin PeayWk 2: W 35-26 vs Delaware▲9DelawareWk 3: W 35-31 vs NC State▲4NC State
  • Wk 1Wvs Austin Peay28-9
  • Wk 2Wvs Delaware35-26
  • Wk 3Wvs NC State35-31

Power rating by week

Vanderbilt is rated 2.4 points ahead as of week 3. Our power rating by week; higher is better.

52-1Wk 0Wk 2Wk 3AuburnVanderbilt

Matchups

Biggest mismatch: Auburn’s rushing EPA against Vanderbilt, 48 points

Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.

  1. Auburn’s rushing EPA against Vanderbilt’s defense

    48 pointsweakerstronger50th

    Auburn offense, 76th percentile · Vanderbilt defense, 28th

  2. Vanderbilt’s EPA/play against Auburn’s defense

    37 pointsweakerstronger50th

    Vanderbilt offense, 30th percentile · Auburn defense, 67th

Season profile, all the rows

Season profile

VanderbiltAuburn
EPA/play, offense
Vanderbilt · 30Auburn · 34
EPA/play, defense
Vanderbilt · 26Auburn · 67
Success rate, offense
Vanderbilt · 33Auburn · 34
Success rate, defense
Vanderbilt · 24Auburn · 47
Explosive-play rate, offense
Vanderbilt · 67Auburn · 64
Explosive-play rate, defense
Vanderbilt · 50Auburn · 76
Rush EPA, offense
Vanderbilt · 58Auburn · 76
Rush EPA, defense
Vanderbilt · 28Auburn · 45
Pass EPA, offense
Vanderbilt · 45Auburn · 17
Pass EPA, defense
Vanderbilt · 31Auburn · 66

The series

Auburn leads the series 21-20-1

42 meetings since 1905 · Vanderbilt has won the last 2

Auburn wonVanderbilt won1905: Vanderbilt by 541909: Vanderbilt by 171912: tie1913: Auburn by 81914: Auburn by 61915: Vanderbilt by 171916: Vanderbilt by 111917: Auburn by 241918: Vanderbilt by 211919: Vanderbilt by 11920: Auburn by 501924: Vanderbilt by 131925: Auburn by 11929: Vanderbilt by 391930: Vanderbilt by 271934: Vanderbilt by 11946: Vanderbilt by 191947: Vanderbilt by 281948: Vanderbilt by 471949: Vanderbilt by 191950: Vanderbilt by 411951: Auburn by 101955: Vanderbilt by 121978: Auburn by 421979: Auburn by 171986: Auburn by 221987: Auburn by 331990: Auburn by 501991: Auburn by 21992: Auburn by 241993: Auburn by 42000: Auburn by 332001: Auburn by 32002: Auburn by 252003: Auburn by 382007: Auburn by 282008: Vanderbilt by 12012: Vanderbilt by 42016: Auburn by 72023: Auburn by 162024: Vanderbilt by 102025: Vanderbilt by 719052025
  • 2025Vanderbilt 45-38Auburn lost 38-45 at Vanderbilt. Chance to win started at 27%, low under 1%, high 83%.
  • 2024Vanderbilt 17-7Auburn lost 7-17 vs Vanderbilt. Chance to win started at 75%, low 2%, high 75%.
  • 2023Auburn 31-15Auburn won 31-15 at Vanderbilt. Chance to win started at 78%, low 72%, high better than 99%.
  • 2016Auburn 23-16
  • 2012Vanderbilt 17-13

Each line is Auburn’s chance to win through that meeting. Auburn is 0-2 in the meetings since 2018 that were still close in the fourth quarter. Older meetings have no play by play, so no line.

Line, fans and home field

The betting line, and the fans

Vanderbilt fans are feeling it less than most fanbases this week (24th among FBS fanbases), and the other side is no happier.

  • Model · 46%
  • Line · 79%
  • Auburn fans · 4th
  • Vanderbilt fans · 24th

Auburn favored by 10 · Total 54.5

How games like this usually go

Auburn by 10, and it went to form

50%90%Q1Q2Q3Q450%90%Q1Q2Q3Q4

Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game

The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 385 games since 2025 with a favorite of 7.5 to 14.5 points.

The market

The spread moved 1.5 points toward Auburn.

opened −8.5now −10

The total rose 4 points.

opened 50.5now 54.5

Spread: −8.5 → −10 · Total: 50.5 → 54.5

The books’ cut: 4.2%, the margin built into the odds

Home field

Auburn is worth +5.6 points (±3.8) more at home than on the road since 2018 — top third of FBS, 75th percentile.

56% at home, 37% on the road against FBS opponents (29-23 home, 14-24 away).

Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads -3.1 at home vs. away over 97 games — inside the ±5.2 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.

The visitors travel about 256 miles to get here.

Last meeting in our History pages

Where next

Conference standings

Place in the conference, then conference record.

Full SEC standings