South Florida beats Bowling Green 14-6
Team pages: South Florida · Bowling Green
South Florida beat Bowling Green 14-6. Share this game
We had South Florida favored. It won.
Top comment in the game thread
Also... if any team watches film, bringing Kromenhoek in is scripted QB run... maybe use that to our advantage and throw it once and shock the crowd.
How it swung
Before kickoff, our ratings gave South Florida an 82% chance, and the closing betting line (South Florida was a 17.5-point favorite) put it at 92%.
The edge changed hands 6 times before South Florida won it.
The edge changed hands 6 times and Bowling Green came out on the wrong end.
South Florida 14-6 Bowling Green
South Florida wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.Bowling Green 6-14 South FloridaBowling Green lostMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.The two plays that swung it
- 1Q2 0:10Van Buren 30-yd runSouth Florida 62% → 75% (+13)
- 2Q4 14:574th and 1Dendy run for a 1-yd loss, turnover on downsSouth Florida 48% → 62% (+14)
The two plays that swung it
- 1Q2 0:10Van Buren 30-yd runBowling Green 38% → 26% (−12)
- 2Q4 14:574th and 1Dendy run for a 1-yd loss, turnover on downsBowling Green 52% → 38% (−14)
What fans said, play by play
The line in bold above each quote is written by our model from the thread’s comments and the play-by-play.
- Q4 12:36Kromenhoek runs for a touchdown to give USF the leadQuoted at the top of the page.
Luke Kromenhoek, the goal line guy!
r/CFB game thread
How to read this chart
Starts from the pregame line (South Florida -17.5), at 84% for South Florida (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. The gray band is r/CFB game-thread activity, its loudest stretches in gold.Every drive
South Florida scored on 2 of its 11 drives; Bowling Green on 2 of its 10.
South Florida’s drives are teal, Bowling Green’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.
From Bowling Green’s side
Bowling Green’s best moment: 46-yd punt (Q3 1:20). It lifted Bowling Green’s win chance by 11 points.
“What Indian burial ground did the team kick to become this cursed?”
How fans reacted
Steady
The loudest stretch came in the second quarter.
The jump was steady; the crowd was quiet.
What it cost
South Florida’s chance to make the playoff rose from 12% to 14%.
Make the playoff
Win the conference
Before the game (September 25, 2026) → after this result, in our model.
Box score
South Florida 14, Bowling Green 6
Bowling Green covered +17.5 by 9.5. The total, 20, stayed under 48.5.
| Team totals | South Florida | Bowling Green |
|---|---|---|
| Total yards | 214 | 207 |
| Passing | 7 of 11, 52 yds | 16 of 28, 122 yds |
| Rushing | 42 for 162 yds | 33 for 85 yds |
| First downs | 16 | 14 |
| Third down | 3 of 10 | 5 of 15 |
| Fourth down | 0 of 1 | 0 of 2 |
| Turnovers | 2 | 0 |
| Penalties | 6 for 35 yds | 7 for 66 yds |
| Time of possession | 27:26 | 32:34 |
South Florida leaders
- Passing Michael Van Buren Jr. 7 of 11, 52 yds
- Rushing D.J. Crowther 23 for 143 yds, 1 TD; Michael Van Buren Jr. 13 for 12 yds
- Receiving Bryson Rodgers 2 for 22 yds; Kade Caton 1 for 20 yds
Bowling Green leaders
- Passing Jay Kastantin 16 of 28, 122 yds
- Rushing Austyn Dendy 18 for 48 yds; Nakai Amachree 5 for 34 yds
- Receiving Winn Sharp 5 for 56 yds; Eli Jacon-Duffy 4 for 30 yds
No rain through the game
69° at kickoff · no rain recorded
September game-day temperatures at Doyt L. Perry Stadium
Drag along the chart, or step through the game.
Where this weather comes from
Measured at Toledo airport, 15 miles away. Rain is NOAA's radar-and-gauge estimate at the stadium and wind is an airport reading; neither is measured on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet; rain radar from NOAA MRMS, through Iowa State University. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.Before kickoff
Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.
Recent games
Last three games
South Florida · 3-0
Rated 64th in our preseason ratings, 57th now.
Three straight wins, including a 4-point win over Army as a 3-point underdog.
Last three games
Bowling Green · 0-3
Rated 117th in our preseason ratings, 152nd now.
Three straight losses.
Week by week
Bowling Green
- Wk 1Lvs Tarleton State13-20
- Wk 2Lat Nebraska7-56
- Wk 3Lat Iowa State7-55
South Florida
- Wk 1Wvs Florida International19-9
- Wk 2Wat Army28-24
- Wk 3Wvs Delaware State59-17
Power rating by week
South Florida is rated 7.5 points ahead as of week 3. Our power rating by week; higher is better.
Matchups
Biggest mismatch: Bowling Green’s explosive plays against South Florida, 90 points
Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.
Bowling Green’s explosive plays against South Florida’s defense
Bowling Green offense, 7th percentile · South Florida defense, 97th
Bowling Green’s rushing EPA against South Florida’s defense
Bowling Green offense, 7th percentile · South Florida defense, 81st
South Florida’s success rate against Bowling Green’s defense
South Florida offense, 74th percentile · Bowling Green defense, 9th
Season profile, all the rows
Season profile
The series
South Florida leads the series 1-0
1 meeting since 2002 · South Florida won the last meeting
- 2002South Florida 29-7
Line, fans and home field
The betting line, and the fans
South Florida fans are feeling it more than most fanbases this week (82nd among FBS fanbases), in line with the numbers.
- Model · 18%
- Line · 8%
- Bowling Green fans · 65th
- South Florida fans · 82nd
South Florida favored by 17.5 · Total 48.5
How games like this usually go
South Florida by 17.5: the game against the usual path
Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game
The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 251 games since 2025 with a favorite of 14.5 to 21.5 points.
The market
The spread moved 2 points toward South Florida.
The total fell 3 points.
Spread: +15.5 → +17.5 · Total: 51.5 → 48.5
The books’ cut: 4.2%, the margin built into the odds
Weather at kickoff
Mild and dry. Feels like 65° at kickoff.
South Florida at Bowling Green · Saturday, Sept. 26, 2026 · Doyt L. Perry Stadium, Bowling Green
- 65°feels like at kickoff
- Dryno rain at kickoff
- 100weather score, Ideal
At kickoff, Sept. 26, 2026.
Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50.
Kickoff times that Saturday
Games in this time zone used 8 kickoff times that day, local time (kickoffs within 30 minutes of each other count as one). This game is ringed.
- noon: 100, Ideal
- 12:45 pm: 100, Ideal
- 2 pm: 100, Ideal
- 3:30 pm: 100, Ideal
- 4 pm: 100, Ideal
- 5 pm: 100, Ideal (this game)
- 6 pm: 100, Ideal
- 7 pm: 100, Ideal
Weather score at each kickoff time.
Tap a dot to read that kickoff time.
At kickoff, Sept. 26, 2026. Wind is not drawn here; gusts are in each score.
Home field
Bowling Green is worth +2.5 points (±4.5) more at home than on the road since 2018 — bottom third of FBS, 22nd percentile.
33% at home, 35% on the road against FBS opponents (13-26 home, 17-32 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads -3.3 at home vs. away over 96 games — inside the ±6.9 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
The visitors travel about 928 miles to get here.