UNLV 39-31 California (Oct 3, 2026) Final Score

Team pages: California · UNLV

California2-331

UNLV3-239Final

Sat, Oct 3 · Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas, Nev. · Crowd 30,632CBS Sports Network

UNLV beat California 39-31.

We had UNLV favored. It won.

Next: California beat Virginia Tech 25-20, Sat Oct 10

Next: UNLV beat North Dakota State 13-7, Sat Oct 10

Top comment in the game thread

alright that's it for me dog

Q1 1:06 · r/CFB game thread · Sat, Oct 3

How it swung

The turning point: Arnold 10-yd TD pass to Burnett, two-point try good, UNLV goes ahead 32-25 (Q4, 9:31). UNLV went from 60% to 86% to win. Fans right then: “This many Targeting and roughing the passer penalties is crazy” r/CFB game thread

Before kickoff, our ratings gave UNLV a 60% chance, and the closing betting line (UNLV was a 1.5-point favorite) put it at 55%.

The edge changed hands 4 times before UNLV won it.

Up to 68% in the first quarter, then California lost it.

91-yard TD pass

California · Q1 11:3024 unanswered

UNLV · Q2 11:18TargetingQ4 11:27

FinalUNLV 39-31 CaliforniaUNLV wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.

The three plays that swung it

1Q2 11:18Arnold 55-yd TD run, UNLV goes ahead 14-7UNLV 58% → 79% (+21)
2Q4 11:38Emory 7-yd TD run, California goes ahead 25-24UNLV 75% → 50% (−25)
3Q4 9:31Arnold 10-yd TD pass to Burnett, two-point try good, UNLV goes ahead 32-25UNLV 60% → 86% (+26)

The three plays that swung it

1Q2 11:18Arnold 55-yd TD run, UNLV goes ahead 14-7California 42% → 21% (−21)
2Q4 11:38Emory 7-yd TD run, California goes ahead 25-24California 25% → 50% (+25)
3Q4 9:31Arnold 10-yd TD pass to Burnett, two-point try good, UNLV goes ahead 32-25California 40% → 14% (−26)

What fans said, play by play

The line in bold above each quote is written by our model from the thread’s comments and the play-by-play.

Q1 1:06Sagapolutele's interception gives UNLV great field position as Cal fans rageQuoted at the top of the page.That was so bad.r/CFB game thread
Q2 6:56Cal fans rage as McGough misses a 51-yard field goal attempt51 yard FG short by at least 10. Might be the weakest leg in the countryr/CFB game thread
Q2 1:14California fans express anger over Tosh Lupoi's coaching and team incompetenceworst cal team in a while I thinkr/CFB game threadlol I said odds on being down 28-7 by our first possession of the 2nd half we’re good. It’s gonna be 31-7.r/CFB game thread
Q3 8:28California fans complain about Brousseau's screen passes while trailing UNLV 24-7Enough of these screensr/CFB game thread
Q3 4:40A kickoff returner fumbled and a player from the other team recovered it.butt fumble!r/CFB game thread
Q4 6:14Fans decry Cal's undisciplined play and numerous penalties as UNLV drivesThis many Targeting and roughing the passer penalties is crazyr/CFB game thread

UNLV’s chance to win after every play.

How to read this chart

Starts from the pregame line (UNLV -1.5), at 67% for UNLV (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. Outlined diamonds mark rare plays. Under the scores, r/CFB comments per minute from fans with a UNLV or California flair (34 and 374); both sides share one scale, regulation only. A gold diamond marks a play fans were reacting to.

Watch the plays

The bar and the arrow show UNLV’s chance to win after each play; the logo is the team the play helped.

Every drive

UNLV scored on 6 of its 16 drives; California on 5 of its 17.

UNLV’s drives are teal, California’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.

From California’s side

California’s best moment: Emory 7-yd TD run, California goes ahead 25-24 (Q4 11:38). It lifted California’s win chance by 25 points.

How California fans took it: “Performatively going for the win rather than OT, but doesn't understand game theory.” r/CFB game thread

“They should call this the sicko bowl”

A UNLV fan

How fans reacted

Quiet

The loudest stretch came in the fourth quarter.

Jump to the loudest stretch

The jump was quiet; the crowd was quiet.

What it cost

UNLV’s chance to win the conference rose from 25% to 27%.

Win the conference

California · lost1% → 1%

UNLV · won25% → ▲27%

Before the game (October 2, 2026) → after this result, in our model.

Box score

UNLV 39, California 31

UNLV covered −1.5 by 6.5. The total, 70, went over 51.5.

Team totals	California	UNLV
Total yards	464	350
Passing	38 of 59, 395 yds	11 of 23, 177 yds
Rushing	24 for 69 yds	38 for 173 yds
First downs	20	18
Third down	5 of 18	6 of 16
Fourth down	1 of 4	1 of 1
Turnovers	1	2
Penalties	16 for 147 yds	7 for 67 yds
Time of possession	31:17	28:43

California leaders

Passing Jackson Brousseau 19 of 32, 200 yds, 2 TD
Rushing Ashten Emory 12 for 48 yds, 1 TD; Tyree Sams 3 for 28 yds
Receiving Taimane Purcell 3 for 102 yds, 1 TD; Carson Perry-Smith 1 for 53 yds, 1 TD

UNLV leaders

Passing Jackson Arnold 11 of 22, 177 yds, 3 TD
Rushing Jackson Arnold 15 for 110 yds, 2 TD; Jai'Den Thomas 16 for 46 yds
Receiving Kayden McGee 3 for 85 yds, 1 TD; Tastean Reddicks 2 for 36 yds, 1 TD

Before kickoff

Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.

Recent games

Last 4 games

California · 2-2

Rated 63rd in our preseason ratings, 74th now, down 11 spots.

2-2 in its last 4, including a 3-point win over Syracuse as a 4-point underdog.

L 10-24 vs ClemsonTop 25 #27 of 668

lost by 14 as a 2.5-point underdog

W 49-7 vs Wagner #258 of 668

won by 42 as a 58.5-point favorite

W 21-18 @ Syracuse #127 of 668

won by 3 as a 4-point underdog

L 24-45 vs UCLATop 25 #59 of 668

lost by 21 as a 2.5-point underdog

Last 4 games

UNLV · 2-2

Rated 91st in our preseason ratings, 97th now.

2-2 in its last 4 — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.

W 38-10 @ Akron #91 of 668

won by 28 as a 13.5-point favorite

L 6-44 @ North Texas #120 of 668

lost by 38 as a 3-point favorite

W 21-6 @ Hawai'i #62 of 668

won by 15 as a 2.5-point favorite

L 21-27 vs Memphis #97 of 668

lost by 6 as a 4.5-point favorite

Week by week

UNLV

Wk 1Lvs Memphis21-27
Wk 1Wat Hawai'i21-6
Wk 2Lat North Texas6-44
Wk 4Wat Akron38-10

California

Wk 1Lvs UCLA24-45
Wk 2Wat Syracuse21-18
Wk 3Wvs Wagner49-7
Wk 4Lvs Clemson10-24

Power rating by week

California is rated 1.6 points ahead as of week 4. Our power rating by week; higher is better.

Matchups

Biggest mismatch: UNLV’s explosive plays against California, 66 points

Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.

UNLV’s explosive plays against California’s defense
UNLV offense, 69th percentile · California defense, 3rd
California’s passing EPA against UNLV’s defense
California offense, 21st percentile · UNLV defense, 83rd
UNLV’s success rate against California’s defense
UNLV offense, 13th percentile · California defense, 62nd

Season profile, all the rows

Season profile

CaliforniaUNLV

EPA/play, offense

EPA/play, defense

Success rate, offense

Success rate, defense

Explosive-play rate, offense

Explosive-play rate, defense

Rush EPA, offense

Rush EPA, defense

Pass EPA, offense

Pass EPA, defense

The series

The series is tied 1-1

2 meetings since 2022 · UNLV won the last meeting

2024 · neutral siteUNLV 24-13
2022California 20-14

Each line is UNLV’s chance to win through that meeting. UNLV is 1-1 in the meetings since 2018 that were still close in the fourth quarter.

Line, fans and home field

The betting line, and the fans

UNLV fans are feeling it less than most fanbases this week (23rd among FBS fanbases), and the other side is no happier.

UNLV favored by 1.5 · Total 51.5

How games like this usually go

UNLV by 1.5, and it went to form

Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game

The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 252 games since 2025 with a favorite of under 3.5 points.

The market

The total fell 1 point.

The books’ cut: 4.7%, the margin built into the odds

Home field

UNLV is worth +1.6 points (±4.2) more at home than on the road since 2018 — bottom third of FBS, 12th percentile.

48% at home, 41% on the road against FBS opponents (20-22 home, 20-29 away).

Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads -1.5 at home vs. away over 98 games — inside the ±6.0 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.

Indoors — dome hosts have beaten the number by about a point and a half more than outdoor ones, on a small sample. The visitors travel about 409 miles to get here.

UNLV beats California 39-31